EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

Murali - we will know better with some real hard data about 2012. As per EB4/5 making U would be so wrong to keep EB2ROW current. EB4/5 are entitled to their quota. Only after they don't have demand could those numbers fall down.

Q,

I agree with you on the eb1 front. Thats what i think has happened. When we get the annual report, it will not be surprising if eb1 has been given 45k visas in 2012. But i still think the realistic scenario for fy 2013 is somewhere near july 2008.

But would it be wrong on the part of uscis, if they had kept eb2 row current and made eb4 and 5 "U".

[murali83]

Murali - we will know better with some real hard data about 2012. As per EB4/5 making U would be so wrong to keep EB2ROW current. EB4/5 are entitled to their quota. Only after they don't have demand could those numbers fall down.

Q,

So realistically, eb2 row dates could move ahead before october, if eb4 or 5 can give them something.

[Spectator]

Spec

I guess i got optimistic, but I am happy that I am at least within 3 to 4 months off your range.

Now let me ask you some questions wrt eb1.

I know that you had mentioned that EB1 usually is in the range of 35 to 36,000 over the years.

In 2011, the approvals were less because of the memo. In that case approvals in 2012 should have exceeded 36,000 because of the backlog carried over from 2011. I assume we should see that soon.

So my whole issue is this. Lets say eb2 i-c should have got just 19k visas this year, but we got 5 k more ( we stole that from eb2 row). Assuming demand for eb2 row stays same next year, we will get 5 k lesser sofad next year which is around 14k.

But then eb1 haunts me again. If eb1 has an average demand of 36k visas every year, but in 2011 they saw dismal approvals. In 2012 they squared that off by essentially taking up everything. This means that even if we did not rob eb2row of their 5 k visas, the 19k sofad we would have got will come from eb2 row, eb4 and eb 5. Eb 1 has used their entire 40 k and even more this year and has not yielded us anything.

But next year they may yield 4-5 k, taking sofad from 14k to 19 k.

So in essence, i feel eb1 gave us nothing this year, in fact they probably used 36k + maybe 10k unapproved cases from last year.

murali,

You are assuming that USCIS have the capability to process the normal EB1 run rate AND clear the increase in the backlog created in FY2011.

While it is difficult to estimate EB1 numbers with any accuracy (because Trackitt numbers have fluctuated dramatically), I have not seen the evidence that that EB1 approvals will reach and exceed 40k yet. It is quite possible numbers will pick up for the remainder of the year.

I would estimate SOFAD for EB2-IC this year in the 23-25k range.

I agree with Q that we need to see the data from USCIS for late in the FY. USCIS haven't even published the March 2012 Data on Individual Applications and Petitions yet.

I want to scale back from saying more and wait for better information before commenting further.

It really is a mess and I feel sorry for everybody in EB2 - IC and ROW alike.

[murali83]

Spec,

You are right in a way. But with now eb2 row having a cod, they will have some extra time to process eb1 cases. So as you said, in the coming months they may cross 40k (i believe they will).

USCIS better get its number co-ordination right soon or else the trauma might continue. A reasonable intake and slightly more managed processing time and GC issuance for eb2 i-c would have benifitted all and qsp would have been appreciated across the board. But now they have burnt their fingers and they will go back to old style.

[justvisiting]

I have been reading your blog as a guest for the past 6 months. I truly admire the work Spec, Q, Veni and others do. For the first time, I feel like I have something to contributte to the conversation.

The discrepancy between (140-PERM), as you know, can come from EB1 or EB2NIW. Also, a PERM approved one year may not show up as an I-140 until the next year.

That said, I added all the numbers FY09-12. This gives a total of 176168 PERM and 248442 I-140. The difference is 72274. Averaged out over 3.5 years that gives 20650/yr.

For FY2009 and FY2010, the number of EB-1 primaries approved were 16,806 and 17,117 according to DHS. FY2011 is an anomaly, only 10,665 primaries were approved. [This cannot be explained by the Kazarian memo only: EB1A+B (the ones impacted by the memo) decreased by 3,309. EB1C (were Kazarian has no relevance) decreased by 3,143.]

There are no numbers for EB2-NIW. But the essence of getting an EB2-NIW is very similar to an EB1A or B. For some, and EB1A may be easier than an NIW due to the subjective criteria established by the NYDOT decision for EB2-NIW.

Let's say FY2011 was an anomaly, for reasons unknown, and the average of EB1 I-140 is 17K. This is not far from the 20650 above. This would give an EB2NIW I-140 estimate of 3K - which is very similar to EB1A.

The whole EB-1 category seems to have a higher i-140 to i-485 ratio than EB2. Perhaps NIW also has a higher ratio - these would be advanced academics later in their careers and with more children.

In conclusion, I think Veni's numbers are right on target. EB2-NIW of course won't consume as many GCs because there are many Chinese applicants who are retrogressed.

[Spectator]

I have been reading your blog as a guest for the past 6 months. I truly admire the work Spec, Q, Veni and others do. For the first time, I feel like I have something to contributte to the conversation.

The discrepancy between (140-PERM), as you know, can come from EB1 or EB2NIW. Also, a PERM approved one year may not show up as an I-140 until the next year.

That said, I added all the numbers FY09-12. This gives a total of 176168 PERM and 248442 I-140. The difference is 72274. Averaged out over 3.5 years that gives 20650/yr.

For FY2009 and FY2010, the number of EB-1 primaries approved were 16,806 and 17,117 according to DHS. FY2011 is an anomaly, only 10,665 primaries were approved. [This cannot be explained by the Kazarian memo only: EB1A+B (the ones impacted by the memo) decreased by 3,309. EB1C (were Kazarian has no relevance) decreased by 3,143.]

There are no numbers for EB2-NIW. But the essence of getting an EB2-NIW is very similar to an EB1A or B. For some, and EB1A may be easier than an NIW due to the subjective criteria established by the NYDOT decision for EB2-NIW.

Let's say FY2011 was an anomaly, for reasons unknown, and the average of EB1 I-140 is 17K. This is not far from the 20650 above. This would give an EB2NIW I-140 estimate of 3K - which is very similar to EB1A.

The whole EB-1 category seems to have a higher i-140 to i-485 ratio than EB2. Perhaps NIW also has a higher ratio - these would be advanced academics later in their careers and with more children.

In conclusion, I think Veni's numbers are right on target. EB2-NIW of course won't consume as many GCs because there are many Chinese applicants who are retrogressed.

justvisiting,

Welcome to the forum.

That's a very nice first post.

I would calculate that 17k EB1 I-140 would result in about 34k I-485 approvals after the relative % of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C , the denial rates for each sub Category and the Primary/Dependent ratio are taken into account.

[suninphx]

Wondering if HR3012(passing in house) resulted in higher porting in EB ROW

[kd2008]

A quick stat from trackitt:

PERMs approved between Jan 2012 to March 2012 ~400
PERMs approved between April 2012 to date ~600

We should see I-140 filings pickup in the next few months and this should be reflected in the USCIS dashboard.

[kd2008]

Wondering if HR3012(passing in house) resulted in higher porting in EB ROW

Not enough time has passed since HR 3012 was passed in the house of representatives. Typically, PERM preparation takes 3 to 4 months, PERM approval takes 60 to 90 days and then a few weeks for I-140 approval and porting.

[suninphx]

Not enough time has passed since HR 3012 was passed in the house of representatives. Typically, PERM preparation takes 3 to 4 months, PERM approval takes 60 to 90 days and then a few weeks for I-140 approval and porting.

Bill was introduced in Sep 2011 and passed in house Nov 2011. So its 6+ months EB3 ROW know that they will take the most hit. And one can do concurrent filing once PERM is approved. It will be interesting statistics once we have data.

[justvisiting]

I would calculate that 17k EB1 I-140 would result in about 34k I-485 approvals after the relative % of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C , the denial rates for each sub Category and the Primary/Dependent ratio are taken into account.

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.

[Spectator]

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.

justvisiting,

Thanks for the correction. You did say approvals - I should have read your post more carefully!!

[TeddyKoochu]

I should clarify that the 17K number is from the total EB-1 primary approved I-485 cases +consular processing visas (actual green cards). So you wouldn't have to adjust for denial rates. This resulted in 40K when adding dependents, which is the usual quota. Basically, EB-1 is maxed out.

justvisiting you make a very valid point. The dependent factor for EB1 is significantly higher than any other category. The reason being the average age of the EB1 definitely for EB1C primary applicant is probably 5 - 10 years higher than the EB2 applicant and by that time it is pretty likely to have at least 1 non US born kid. So even by a factor of 2.5K; 40K can be easily achieved. Even within EB1 the EB1C category will have a higher dependent factor rate a lot of those people are actually closer to 40. Also to be noted is that based on Trackitt figures the usage of EB1-C the data is skewed by Indian EB1-C though is really high this year. I happen to know 5 EB1-C families who have used EB1C in the last year or are in process of doing so; the dependent factor would be well over 3 for them, even though this is a very small sample space a factor of 2.5 for EB1 seems to be fair, it should be much lower for EB2 though.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

AILA Annual Conference June 13– 16, 2012.
Key Speaker is Alejandro Mayorkas, Director, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

I believe this conference is attended by many prominent Immigration Lawyers.
I wanted to know,

1) If we can expect any information from this conference to predict numbers.
2) If in this conference, lawyers bring up any pending immigration bills.

Please share your knowledge ..
Thank you

[redsox2009]

Looks like most of us are in denial state...........


I still could not belive how come and where our numbers went wrong.............

[suninphx]

Looks like most of us are in denial state...........


I still could not belive how come and where our numbers went wrong.............

I think our calcuation about EB2IC demand is fine. Its the consumption in other catagories which changed equation. (Spec has been warning for a while about higher consumption though).

[qesehmk]

I would've thought so but given the monkey business CO is engaged in .... all sorts of irrational things are possible. So not really confident eitherway now.

Q,

So realistically, eb2 row dates could move ahead before october, if eb4 or 5 can give them something.

[suninphx]

I would've thought so but given the monkey business CO is engaged in .... all sorts of irrational things are possible. So not really confident eitherway now.

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible . Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[Spectator]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible . Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

suninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[just_curious]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible . Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Pardon my ignorance here..

Is there any law/ETA, that you have to be called for immigration visa interview before so and so days once you get the NVC notice?

[Spectator]

Pardon my ignorance here..

Is there any law/ETA, that you have to be called for immigration visa interview before so and so days once you get the NVC notice?

just_curious,

None that I am aware of.

[just_curious]

just_curious,

None that I am aware of.

thanks, Spec. I think it is going to be a carrot dangling in front..

[TeddyKoochu]

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible . Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Sun this is interesting news considering that just yesterday EB2 ROW retrogressed. Lets see if people receive NVC notices in large numbers before arriving at any conclusions. NVC notices have been a very accurate in the last season.

[Mavrick]

I'm completely lost now

And here is example why 'all sorts of irrational things' are possible . Its been a while any one got NVC fee notice.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[openaccount]

suninphx,

I saw that too.

It seems to be silly season all round today.

An EB2-I user with a Aug 29, 2008 PD reports being approved today (nimmagaddavasu). I am a little suspicious about that one, especially as they don't even appear to have had an RFE.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

I know one case from my company, last month precisely May 2ndweek when EB2 dates were Aug2007, one of my colleagues got approval his PD is Jul2008. This is one case which i am aware of personally. This happened after internal retrogression in March and after announcement of no visas being issued after April.