EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Spec, your predictions from months ago came true. Thanks for your analysis, it was accurate and much ahead of the time. A couple of questions.
- Do you think EB2-ROW will be current by the end of Sep-2012 or will it have cut-off date or unavailable status even when FY-2013 begins. The VB warns about EB2-ROW becoming "unavailable". What are the chances of that.

I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2012. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.

- I know it is too early and there are lots of unknowns but any rough ideas on how FY 2013 will look like for EB2-IC. Can EB2-IC expect any spillover from EB2-ROW if their demand reverts to prior year levels. Or does the current retrogression mean that it will take more than few months to clear EB2-ROW inventory.

I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[openaccount]

Q, don't you think UCIS inventory released in May & I-140 statistics has not covered all Eb2ROW/Eb1 numbers. If it was accurate dates should not have retrogressed for EB2ROW unless CO has allocated more than 25K to EB2IC in first half of FY2012.

I am saying this as your predictions were based on data from USCIS and we have seen USCIS missing(not added to inventory) lot of numbers in inventory report released earlier this year in January similar thing could have happened in May also especially for EB2ROW/EB1, just a guess.

[EB2Dec2007]

Spec,

Do you mean October 2012 or 2013?

I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2013. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.



I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[GhostWriter]

Thanks Spec. I assume and hope you meant October 2012 in the first sentence. What is the legally correct spillover procedure - annual or quarterly. Or is the law open-ended (like most things written by lawyers ).
If it is supposed to be quarterly then there is nothing wrong done in EB2-ROW having a cut-off date and he should do it again next year without any fear. If it supposed to be annual then did he do QSP this year only to reduce the waittime of people waiting for visa for last 5 years (2007-08) or was there any other reason.

I'm pretty sure EB2-WW will become Current in October 2013. 27% of the allocation is 9.3k and they can always use some QSP, if necessary.

From the May Inventory, EB2-WW only has about 1k cases before 2009 and not all of those may get approved, so the chances of becoming Unavailable must be considered low, but I don't know how close CO is sailing to the wind and whether EB1 usage is a factor.



I need to think about that a bit more.

As I have said before, I don't think CO will be as aggressive in using QSP for EB2-IC benefit in FY2013. That has basically caused EB2 to run out of visas 3-4 months before the end of the year.

[TorreyPines]

Guys,

EB2 ROW COD seems to be very near to what people projected had HR3012 became law. It is hard to believe CO put a blind eye to ROW's demand so much that he would put a COD for them. Something is missing here. This year, active legislation towards any bill has atmost 2 months time frame from now, and in CO's perspective it is one or two VBs away. Is he preparing for something inevitable?

I wasn't an optimist on HR3012 (or the concept of country cap removal happening) till date but am starting to believe it more than the fact the CO overlooked this much.

Have a nice week, it is still Monday.

PS:
1. No offence to spec's numbers, and intelligence; this is just another line of thinking.
2. There are multiple bills with country cap removal and just not HR 3012.

[Spectator]

Thanks for pointing out my typo - I have corrected it in the original post.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I assume and hope you meant October 2012 in the first sentence. What is the legally correct spillover procedure - annual or quarterly. Or is the law open-ended (like most things written by lawyers ).
If it is supposed to be quarterly then there is nothing wrong done in EB2-ROW having a cut-off date and he should do it again next year without any fear. If it supposed to be annual then did he do QSP this year only to reduce the waittime of people waiting for visa for last 5 years (2007-08) or was there any other reason.

GhostWriter,

When CO talked about the Spillover Rule in the May 2011 VB he said:

Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)

INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits.

The emphasis is mine. Since the law allows CO to use estimated Demand, I don't think he has to use spillover visas within the quarter and we all know that this is how it has operated previously. In the same VB, he also explained further:

The rate of number use under Section 202(a)(5) is continually monitored to determine whether subsequent adjustments are needed in visa availability for the oversubscribed countries. This helps assure that all available Employment preference numbers will be used, while insuring that numbers also remain available for applicants from all other countries that have not yet reached their per-country limit.

Again my emphasis.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Guys,

EB2 ROW COD seems to be very near to what people projected had HR3012 became law. It is hard to believe CO put a blind eye to ROW's demand so much that he would put a COD for them. Something is missing here. This year, active legislation towards any bill has atmost 2 months time frame from now, and in CO's perspective it is one or two VBs away. Is he preparing for something inevitable?

I wasn't an optimist on HR3012 (or the concept of country cap removal happening) till date but am starting to believe it more than the fact the CO overlooked this much.

Have a nice week, it is still Monday.

PS:
1. No offence to spec's numbers, and intelligence; this is just another line of thinking.
2. There are multiple bills with country cap removal and just not HR 3012.

If what you are saying is true, than that is the best news but I am afraid, that is not the case probably. It is very hard to get any immigration related bills passed by either party when elections are so near. No one would take that risk and I really highly doubt, if any immigration related bill would become a law before elections. Many other bills which have been introduced in the House and Senate, which include elimination of country-based caps in employment category, is nothing but pure tokenism in my opinion. The only hope of any immigration related bill passing during this year is lame duck session which would happen after elections.

I really don't think CO put a cut-off date on EB2ROW because he thinks/knows that HR 3012 or similar bill with elimination of country-caps in employment category is going to become a law in near future. I think the EB2ROW COD was imposed just because of false estimation of EB2IC demand and over-allocation of visas to EB2IC. Now, whether it was a calculated move or a mistake, the end result is complete mess.

Yes, I know people have got EADs and APs because of this crazy movement and I think that is not bad at all. I actually consider it a positive thing but this entire immigration system needs a major revamp to make it more logical and practical, i.e. point based system.

When it comes to the data analysis and being transparent, USCIS/DOS can be extremely efficient and competent at being inefficient and incompetent. This has been said many times by respected Immigration lawyers. I think this case is no different. S**t has hit the fan finally to nobody's surprise.

[GhostWriter]

Ok, thanks Spec. So it is open-ended since no one can predict the demand in future quarters. If he expects it to be low he will use QSP else not. Given he expected it to be at prior year levels and did use QSP and it turned out to be higher he is less likely to try it aggressively again next year (as you, vizcard and others suggest). So if EB2-IC remains unavailable till Sep-2012 and there is no or little QSP employed in Oct-Dec 2012 and given there are 4000 2007 EB2-IC cases in the latest demand data we will have to be very lucky to get to Jan-2008 by Jan-2013.

GhostWriter,

When CO talked about the Spillover Rule in the May 2011 VB he said:



The emphasis is mine. Since the law allows CO to use estimated Demand, I don't think he has to use spillover visas within the quarter and we all know that this is how it has operated previously. In the same VB, he also explained further:



Again my emphasis.

[murali83]

Ok, thanks Spec. So it is open-ended since no one can predict the demand in future quarters. If he expects it to be low he will use QSP else not. Given he expected it to be at prior year levels and did use QSP and it turned out to be higher he is less likely to try it aggressively again next year (as you, vizcard and others suggest). So if EB2-IC remains unavailable till Sep-2012 and there is no or little QSP employed in Oct-Dec 2012 and given there are 4000 2007 EB2-IC cases in the latest demand data we will have to be very lucky to get to Jan-2008 by Jan-2013.

GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.

[GhostWriter]

Good point murali83, thanks. Yes the demand numbers for 2007 will increase as remaining 2007 cases get pre-adjudicated. So even tougher times ahead.
FY 2012 started with July 2007 and will end at Aug 2007. 1 month of movement in 1 year. Glad that 40K people including me got EADs. Life could have been worse.

GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.

[Spectator]

GhostWriter,

4000 is just demand data. approx 6500 is the pending inventory for EB2I-C for dates prior to Jan 1, 2008. I am sure that the demand data will approach 6500 pretty soon. The annual default for EB2I-C is 5600. But once dates move forward from "U", porting will slowly start. So CO has to make some smart decisions. He will probably keep dates where the 5600 can balance some porting and also provide visas to guys between Aug 15, 2007 and Dec 31, 2007. I would say that date is somewhere in Oct 2007. At the end of the quarter, I doubt we will get much since EB2Row wont yield much in Q1. Dates might move beyond Oct 2007 sometime in Q2. CO can stop some porting if he keeps making it U for some intermittent periods of time.

murali83,

I agree it is better to look at the Inventory at the moment, since many more cases will be pre-adjudicated by October 2012.

I think we also have to look at EB2-C separately from EB2-I because of the very different numbers. I know the Inventory numbers will change, but it still illustrates the point.

The initial allocation of 2.8k can take EB2-C to a COD of July 1, 2008, so China will reach that date even if there is no spillover. If they are allocated 27% or 757 visas in Q1, their COD would move to Nov 1, 2007.

This is in contrast to EB2-I, where 2.8k can only move EB2-C to about mid August 2007. 757 visas would reach April 1 2007. To reach Nov 1, 2007, EB2-I would need 4,321 visas. That would mean EB2-IC receiving 5,058 visas in Q1 FY2013 if the COD were to remain the same.

To reach a COD of July 1, 2008 EB2-I would require 13.6k.

So unless SOFAD reaches at least 16.4k (2.8 + 13.6), EB2-C is likely to have a later COD than EB2-I. Only if the ending COD is later than July 1, 2008 will EB2-C receive any spillover visas and the COD will then be the same as EB2-I.

Those numbers do not include any additional porting numbers and are based on the May Inventory, which will probably rise.

I'll leave you to decide what level of SOFAD you think is likely in FY2013.

The figures are to illustrate some of the potential problems, not to say that is what would happen.

[murali83]

Good point murali83, thanks. Yes the demand numbers for 2007 will increase as remaining 2007 cases get pre-adjudicated. So even tougher times ahead.
FY 2012 started with July 2007 and will end at Aug 2007. 1 month of movement in 1 year. Glad that 40K people including me got EADs. Life could have been worse.

FY 2012 started from April 15, 2007. Lots of people beyond Aug 2007 got greened. Considering the dense year 2007 is, I would say FY 2012 is not that bad. I think we are all down now, becos of all these swings. If USCIS had been organized, dates for FY2012 would have ended at somewhere in 1st or 2nd week of Dec 2007. Considering a dense year like 2007 and the fact that we had 8K pending carryover cases, it is quite an achievement.

So we got 25K visas this year, I would say not bad at all, especially after EB1 carried over so many cases from last year. Just to sound a little optimistic for next year. I would say from Oct 2012, we should be ok and next year, I dont expect CO to give us unnecessary optimism or depression. It will be a dull and predictable year. The only icing will be EB1 (EB1 demand will be same, but since there wont be as heavy a carryover from FY 2012 to FY 2013 as we had in EB1 from 2011 to 2012), it might yield 3-4K extra visas, but that will be gobbled up by the EB2ROW pending from this year due to this cutoff date imposed on them. So that evens out. So we should get an effective sofad next year in the range of 20-25K. Spec's original prediction of EB2I-C standing at Aug-Sep 2008 at the end of FY 2013 is just about right in my opinion.

But when in FY 2013 these dates will be realized is anyone's guess.

[murali83]

murali83,

I agree it is better to look at the Inventory at the moment, since many more cases will be pre-adjudicated by October 2012.

I think we also have to look at EB2-C separately from EB2-I because of the very different numbers. I know the Inventory numbers will change, but it still illustrates the point.

The initial allocation of 2.8k can take EB2-C to a COD of July 1, 2008, so China will reach that date even if there is no spillover. If they are allocated 27% or 757 visas in Q1, their COD would move to Nov 1, 2007.

This is in contrast to EB2-I, where 2.8k can only move EB2-C to about mid August 2007. 757 visas would reach April 1 2007. To reach Nov 1, 2007, EB2-I would need 4,321 visas. That would mean EB2-IC receiving 5,058 visas in Q1 FY2013 if the COD were to remain the same.

To reach a COD of July 1, 2008 EB2-I would require 13.6k.

So unless SOFAD reaches at least 16.4k (2.8 + 13.6), EB2-C is likely to have a later COD than EB2-I. Only if the ending COD is later than July 1, 2008 will EB2-C receive any spillover visas and the COD will then be the same as EB2-I.

Those numbers do not include any additional porting numbers and are based on the May Inventory, which will probably rise.

I'll leave you to decide what level of SOFAD you think is likely in FY2013.

The figures are to illustrate some of the potential problems, not to say that is what would happen.

Spec,

you beat me to it. I was just about to correct my post and write about Eb2-C behaving differently. Thanks for the detail. So as of now, I think it is worthless to predict what will happen at the sofad level.

[qesehmk]

Guys - This is quite a mess. USCIS/DOS should be ashamed of themselves. Honestly I was overestimating their intelligence and implementation and adherence of law as well as common sense.

Before we come to that - first I must admit - that it is quite clear that I overshot. I guess I will have to go back and figure out where I may have missed. And will do that ... I promise.

But following language is so clear that we just have to take this at its face value.

This action has been taken in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Should there be an increase in the current demand pattern, it may be necessary to make this category completely “unavailable” prior to September 30, 2012.
The China and India Employment Second preference categories are already “unavailable”, and will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.

So what may have happened? Who is the culprit here? Who consumed more compared to last year? I think what may have happened is a triple whammy for EB2 category. First EB4 probably has given less to none SOFAD. EB5 probably yielded 0-4K. EB1 probably not only used up the entire quota but also absorbed whatever little came from EB4/5. So EB2 is on its own. EB2IC already probably received 20K. Could be as high as 22K. Remaining 18K is barely enough for EB2ROW and hence the retrogression.

If you think about it - all these numbers we talk about - there is very little direct evidence of actual consumption. So we pretty much rely on trackitt data using relative measures. But I didn't use trackitt this year for the simple reason that the trackitt ratio of 26 real cases per trackitt case, was not valid anymore this year. So it was fruitless to ues trackitt data anyway. I-140 didn't really point to a massive EB1 increase. So it only means EB1 could see some real significant decrease in its backlog. We will see... as I said - we need to hear through AILA or somebody how many visas actually were issued.

Now coming back to CO / USCIS / DOS. I really think that I overestimated their intelligence / common sense. They have created a bigger mess compared to 2007. Imagine this - 1//3rd of 2008 people got their GCs quite fast. Whereas 4K of 2007 folks are waiting. And ROW probaby got robbed off their rightful quota under current law. Either that or CO hasn't been following law all these years. i.e. If his explanation is he only applied spillover - then that doesn't cut it since how come he did it while starving EB2ROW? Just doesn't make sense.

I think the only positive thing that EB2IC should hope for (and actually there are 2 of them) - is A) HR3012 goes through B) Or at least that EB2IC and EB2ROW monthly demand is around 1.6K-2K max. Looking at the labor data, EB2 indeed should have total annual demand of 36-40K (i.e. 3.2-3.3K per month). If that remains true - then EB2IC should still expect to receive GC in about 4 years from PD which means that all of 2008 would still be easily cleared in 2013 itself.

That brings me to our original prediction. If CO had performed strict FIFO on EB2IC, then we wouldve seen EB2IC dates in Mar 2008. But since he chose to do violent movements and then approve randomly (I don' trust anymore that there is any method to their madness), that really robbed off from 2007 and Q1 2008 EB2IC applicants.

So all the pessimism aside - be hopeful that EB2IC will be cleared through at least Dec 2008 by Sep 2013.

p.s. Torrey Pines - what you said about HR3012 is logical but here are two things that go contrary. A) Under HR3012 there are provisions to ensure that EB2ROW is not starved and that there is a 3 year transition period. B) Even if HR3012 becomes a law somehow, as far as this year is concerned there it seems just aren't any visas left for EB2IC to really hope for. So perhaps what you pointed out could be a strange coincidence. But who knows .... you could be right!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Gurus, quick question. Just asking for curiosity.

How did they pick a date of Jan 1, 2009 for EB2ROW. Was it done mainly to limit porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW since it is hard to believe that anybody who directly filed under EB2ROW category before Jan 1, 2009 is still having pending application. Most of them who file under EB2ROW get their GCs from 6-18 months max.

[veni001]

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here, data points towards higher EB1 demand!

Spec,
I agree with you, CY totals are very similar, and the shift is more towards IC (EB2).

With the current data points it is not that easy to figure out EB2/EB3 split for EB-ROW.

In addition, i am unsure about surge in i140 increase is entirely from EB1 or from EB2-NIW as well?

Guys - This is quite a mess.

............................
............................

If you think about it - all these numbers we talk about - there is very little direct evidence of actual consumption. So we pretty much rely on trackitt data using relative measures. But I didn't use trackitt this year for the simple reason that the trackitt ratio of 26 real cases per trackitt case, was not valid anymore this year. So it was fruitless to ues trackitt data anyway. I-140 didn't really point to a massive EB1 increase. So it only means EB1 could see some real significant decrease in its backlog. We will see... as I said - we need to hear through AILA or somebody how many visas actually were issued.
........................
.........................

Q,
Please check i-140 data for first half of FY2012 from FACTS AND DATA SECTION

[Spectator]

FY 2012 started from April 15, 2007. Lots of people beyond Aug 2007 got greened. Considering the dense year 2007 is, I would say FY 2012 is not that bad. I think we are all down now, becos of all these swings. If USCIS had been organized, dates for FY2012 would have ended at somewhere in 1st or 2nd week of Dec 2007. Considering a dense year like 2007 and the fact that we had 8K pending carryover cases, it is quite an achievement.

So we got 25K visas this year, I would say not bad at all, especially after EB1 carried over so many cases from last year. Just to sound a little optimistic for next year. I would say from Oct 2012, we should be ok and next year, I dont expect CO to give us unnecessary optimism or depression. It will be a dull and predictable year. The only icing will be EB1 (EB1 demand will be same, but since there wont be as heavy a carryover from FY 2012 to FY 2013 as we had in EB1 from 2011 to 2012), it might yield 3-4K extra visas, but that will be gobbled up by the EB2ROW pending from this year due to this cutoff date imposed on them. So that evens out. So we should get an effective sofad next year in the range of 20-25K. Spec's original prediction of EB2I-C standing at Aug-Sep 2008 at the end of FY 2013 is just about right in my opinion.

But when in FY 2013 these dates will be realized is anyone's guess.

murali,

You are far more optimistic than I am.

As I have repeatedly stated, 35-36k is the normal rate for EB1 (based on I-140 receipts and denials for EB1A, EB1B & EB1C published by USCIS). EB1 was abnormally low in FY2011 because of delays introduced by the Kazarian ruling. I still hold to that view. No EB1 I-140 numbers have been published since July 19, 2011, but I have no reason to believe they have diminished. I realise I am in a minority of exactly one who holds that view.

EB2-WW will use 6-8k more next year because of COD retrogression, so I don't think we can expect much, if any, spillover from them.

EB5 will not yield more than 5k spillover, probably less.

That leaves SOFAD at about 15k for EB2-IC. EB2-C would use 2.8k and EB2-I would use 12.2k.

That would take EB2-C to July 1, 2008 and EB2-I to about April 1, 2008 based on 3k porting cases yet to come. If the Inventory numbers rise, the dates will slip back from that date for EB2-I.

Maybe given that not all cases are ever approved, EB2-IC will end at mid year 2008.

Currently, with the information available, I would say 20k SOFAD for EB2-IC in FY2013 would be an outstanding result. That would probably see EB2-IC both finish around August/September 2008, assuming some cases are left behind.

Still, much may happen before the year end, so let's wait and see.

[openaccount]

That would take EB2-C to July 1, 2008 and EB2-I to about April 1, 2008 based on 3k porting cases yet to come. If the Inventory numbers rise, the dates will slip back from that date for EB2-I.
Maybe given that not all cases are ever approved, EB2-IC will end at mid year 2008.

Spec, we have seen in past year or so porting is at minimum of 5k i think it is going to increase with economy improving there is no reason for that to drop. With 5k I won't be surprised if 2013 ends with Jan-Feb2008 even with some cases not being approved.

EB2-WW will use 6-8k more next year because of COD retrogression, so I don't think we can expect much, if any, spillover from them.
EB5 will not yield more than 5k spillover, probably less.
That leaves SOFAD at about 15k for EB2-IC. EB2-C would use 2.8k and EB2-I would use 12.2k.

If Eb5 gives 5K then from where are you expecting remaining 4-5k to yield 12.2K SOFAD for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Spec, we have seen in past year or so porting is at minimum of 5k i think it is going to increase with economy improving there is no reason for that to drop. With 5k I won't be surprised if 2013 ends with Jan-Feb2008 even with some cases not being approved.

I wouldn't argue that point, but I don't want to be overly pessimistic either.

If Eb5 gives 5K then from where are you expecting remaining 4-5k to yield 12.2K SOFAD for EB2I?

EB1 at 35-36k would yield 4-5k spillover.

[qesehmk]

veni
as i said the other day - i found your logic flawless. Wonder if you tried to cross check the result of that analysis and verify with the actual EB1 approvals and SOFAD in those years? I bet the actual EB1 approvals don't have that huge variation as the result indicates. So i think - while the thought process is very good.... something is missing there veni. I don't know what. But just cross check against actuals from those years and you will understand what I am saying.

p.s. Did you notice that 2009-2010-2011 total 140 receipts increased consistently while this year they are decreasing? That in fact would made me believe that this year we should've seen even more sofad? Why? Because in the end - its the total 140 receipts that matter - not the individual breakup (well I take that half back -- since EB2IC I-140 if less is a bad news for SOFAD).... but i hope you get the point.

Q,
Please check i-140 data for first half of FY2012 from FACTS AND DATA SECTION

[veni001]

veni
as i said the other day - i found your logic flawless. Wonder if you tried to cross check the result of that analysis and verify with the actual EB1 approvals and SOFAD in those years? I bet the actual EB1 approvals don't have that huge variation as the result indicates. So i think - while the thought process is very good.... something is missing there veni. I don't know what. But just cross check against actuals from those years and you will understand what I am saying.

p.s. Did you notice that 2009-2010-2011 total 140 receipts increased consistently while this year they are decreasing? That in fact would made me believe that this year we should've seen even more sofad? Why? Because in the end - its the total 140 receipts that matter - not the individual breakup (well I take that half back -- since EB2IC I-140 if less is a bad news for SOFAD).... but i hope you get the point.

Q,

FY2009:
PERM Certifications:29,502
i-140 Receipts:57,011

FY2010:
PERM Certifications:70,237
i-140 Receipts:77,280

FY2011:
PERM Certifications:59,863
i-140 Receipts:81,678

FY2012: Half-Year
PERM Certifications:16,566
i-140 Receipts:32,473

I agree i-140 receipts show decline for FY2012, but the delta between PERM Certifications and i-140 receipts is inversely proportional to SOFAD.

As you can see from the data above, PERM certifications decreased at a faster rate than i-140 receipts and the delta is increasing from 2010-2011-2012(half year).

[murali83]

Spec

I guess i got optimistic, but I am happy that I am at least within 3 to 4 months off your range.

Now let me ask you some questions wrt eb1.

I know that you had mentioned that EB1 usually is in the range of 35 to 36,000 over the years.

In 2011, the approvals were less because of the memo. In that case approvals in 2012 should have exceeded 36,000 because of the backlog carried over from 2011. I assume we should see that soon.

So my whole issue is this. Lets say eb2 i-c should have got just 19k visas this year, but we got 5 k more ( we stole that from eb2 row). Assuming demand for eb2 row stays same next year, we will get 5 k lesser sofad next year which is around 14k.

But then eb1 haunts me again. If eb1 has an average demand of 36k visas every year, but in 2011 they saw dismal approvals. In 2012 they squared that off by essentially taking up everything. This means that even if we did not rob eb2row of their 5 k visas, the 19k sofad we would have got will come from eb2 row, eb4 and eb 5. Eb 1 has used their entire 40 k and even more this year and has not yielded us anything.

But next year they may yield 4-5 k, taking sofad from 14k to 19 k.

So in essence, i feel eb1 gave us nothing this year, in fact they probably used 36k + maybe 10k unapproved cases from last year.

[qesehmk]

KD - Touche! It indeed proved the optimists wrong. I am perplexed given that the YoY reduction in I-140 receipts, how can this happen. As of now I do not know - other than to say EB1 better show little to none inventory in Oct 2012.
As per 2013 - I am not as concerned, since I would think that the retrogression would hurt EB2ROW max by 5K ie. equivalent to 3 month run rate. Moving the dates is not as logical - so CO can do anything. The question is till what date backlog will be cleared. I would still bet Dec 2008 in 2013 .. we can say with some certainty after we see Oct 2012 485 inventory and approval data. That's a looooong time from now!

OK! So this July visa bulletin, proves optimists wrong!

Q, the dates won't move at all for EB2-IC. So your prediction does not hold.

I think we all will be better off if we start making super pessimistic predictions.

In fact, as EB2-IC will be unavailable for so long, the porters will accumulate to nearly 1500 to 1800 cases by the end of this fiscal year. So even if, the dates become available in Oct 12 (start of FY 2013), they may start somewhere like June 2004 and slowly progress to 2007 and stall. Finally when the spillover season starts, the dates will move to 2008 at most.

In addition, EB2-ROW cases will accumulate. They will eat all of the Q1 and Q2 quota in FY 2013 without even reaching individual country quota. So there will not be any spillover in first three quarters of FY 2013.

openaccount - i am more concerned about 140 numbers. Given the overall decrease in those numbers, they clearly indicated towards more SOFAD in 2012 compared to 2011 (unless USCIS chose to clear entire EB1 backlog coupled with strong increase in EB4/5). The USCIS inventory - indeed is flawed since it doesnt show 485 cases with unapproved 485s.

Q, don't you think UCIS inventory released in May & I-140 statistics has not covered all Eb2ROW/Eb1 numbers. If it was accurate dates should not
have retrogressed for EB2ROW unless CO has allocated more than 25K to EB2IC in first half of FY2012.

I am saying this as your predictions were based on data from USCIS and we have seen USCIS missing(not added to inventory) lot of numbers in inventory report released earlier this year in January similar thing could have happened in May also especially for EB2ROW/EB1, just a guess.

Q,

FY2009:
PERM Certifications:29,502
i-140 Receipts:57,011

FY2010:
PERM Certifications:70,237
i-140 Receipts:77,280

FY2011:
PERM Certifications:59,863
i-140 Receipts:81,678

FY2012: Half-Year
PERM Certifications:16,566
i-140 Receipts:32,473

I agree i-140 receipts show decline for FY2012, but the delta between PERM Certifications and i-140 receipts is inversely proportional to SOFAD.

As you can see from the data above, PERM certifications decreased at a faster rate than i-140 receipts and the delta is increasing from 2010-2011-2012(half year).

Veni - I understand this. I am talking about the net EB1 140s you calculated and then tying that to actual EB1 approvals in 2009-10-11-12. I am sure they dont quite match up well and the variation is much less compared to what the 140 numbers would make you believe.

[murali83]

Q,

I agree with you on the eb1 front. Thats what i think has happened. When we get the annual report, it will not be surprising if eb1 has been given 45k visas in 2012. But i still think the realistic scenario for fy 2013 is somewhere near july 2008.

But would it be wrong on the part of uscis, if they had kept eb2 row current and made eb4 and 5 "U".