EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

So this is good data. By now all cases probably made their way into demand data. Given that this is "documentarily qualified" demand - we can't be certain. But probably all cases filed during the surge are probably in there.

Some nuggets:
1. EB2IC for 2008 is a very telltale. 12K outstanding => real overall demand was 18K (if we assume based on trackitt that 1/3rd already received their GCs) =>1.5K per month
2. EB2IC for 2007 and prior is 4K. => at least following number from 2007 were approved - 13K backlog + 1.5K per month * 4 months - 4K = 15K.
3. Add the 6K for 2008, that brings total EB2IC approvals for 2012 so far = 21K.
4. That is approx 10K less than what EB2IC received last year.

Does that mean EB2IC will receive 10K this more through rest of the year? I would like ot believe so based on 140 data I had earlier produced. But trackitt EB1 and EB2ROW data runs against it. The fallacy with trackitt data is that people tend to register more when there is frenzy. So the ratios move all over the place.

My gut feel is EB2IC certainly should receive 10K between now and Sep 2012 thereby moving dates well into Q2 2008.

[Spectator]

Openaccount,

Thanks for the heads up on the demand data. Based on the EB2 ROW cumulative demand of 250, I don't see that category retrogressing, at least in July. May be that news was a rumor after all. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin.

EB2-WW numbers in the Demand Data will only start increasing after any retrogression has taken place.

Until then, the Demand Data pretty much only shows the Demand for Consular Processed cases, since any AOS cases can be approved immediately and therefore never show in the Demand Data. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Data-Represent

[vedu]

Spec,

That's a valid point. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin and see which theory holds up.

EB2-WW numbers in the Demand Data will only start increasing after any retrogression has taken place.

Until then, the Demand Data pretty much only shows the Demand for Consular Processed cases, since any AOS cases can be approved immediately and therefore never show in the Demand Data. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Data-Represent

[redsox2009]

My 2 cents analysis based on the demand data................

From the demand data, the number of applications that were processed in EB2 cat for I/C has increased by 6350. Which means the USCIS processed extra 6350 in month of May. Last year in one of the report the USCIS stated that they distrubuted work equally and were processing files close to 30000 per quarter, which means they were processing 10K per month. Based on that statement we can assume they processed 10k applications and out of which 6350 are EB2 I/C and 3650 are remaining catogeries and this tells that they are having less demand. However one thing that is concerning to me is the 30 and 50 applications that were processed for other countries, are they are waiting for visa number to be avaliable or did these applications came as upgrade process. If they are upgrade then it should not be much concern, if they are non upgarde and waiting for Visa number then we are doomed, that is telling that visa numbers are unavaliable till Oct 2012.



Capture.JPG

[vedu]

Guys,

The following link provides some interesting EB5 statistics.

http://www.cis.org/north/strange-num...st-green-cards

There were only 375 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,150 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011. That's approximately 32% reduction in EB5 numbers on YOY basis. If these numbers hold up for the second half of FY 2012, can we expect EB5 to release 9,000 visas towards this year's spill-over?

[Spectator]

Spec, just a technical point - doesn't CO only look at demand data to determine the cut off date? With this simple algorithm, CO should determine that the supply for upcoming month > demand and should keep the dates current.

"During" a month, as the USCIS processes more cases and requests more visas, at some point, CO should say enough (if too many visas are requested) and keep those files pending. Then in the next bulletin, he should count those files, publish the demand data and then impose the cut off date. Clearly, this hasn't happened in May. It may happen in June.

If all AOS cases were approvable, then they are already approved and there is no demand > 250 to approve as of yet. Am I missing something here? Anyway, the VB should come out shortly and we will see what really takes place.

sportsfan,

If the algorithm were that simple, you are correct.

CO is also allowed to use estimates of future demand as well. If he didn't, it becomes too late to take corrective action.

CO can only "see" the CP cases with certainty, since they are reported in advance to him by the Consulates.

For AOS, he has to rely on information from USCIS, historical trends or perhaps just gut feel. Once that is added onto the 250 in the Demand Data, the numbers may be more than he thinks are available for the month.

[Spectator]

Guys,

The following link provides some interesting EB5 statistics.

http://www.cis.org/north/strange-num...st-green-cards

There were only 375 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,150 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011. That's approximately 32% reduction in EB5 numbers on YOY basis. If these numbers hold up for the second half of FY 2012, can we expect EB5 to release 9,000 visas towards this year's spill-over?

vedu,

Those numbers are for the I-829 to remove conditions on conditional GCs already given.

The GC was actually given 2 years previously. Even if they don't apply for conditions to be removed, it doesn't affect the current or past year EB5 usage.

For that, you need to look at the I-526 numbers, which show an increase in numbers.

If we compared I-526 applications as you have above for I-829, there were 2,771 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,600 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011.

That's approximately 73% increase in EB5 numbers on YOY basis.

Aren't statistics a wonderful thing!!

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks for the explanation. While I was posting my last post, I had the fear about very same thing and you confirmed it! These numbers are wasted visas then...right?

vedu,

Those numbers are for the I-829 to remove conditions on conditional GCs already given.

The GC was actually given 2 years previously. Even if they don't apply for conditions to be removed, it doesn't affect the current or past year EB5 usage.

For that, you need to look at the I-526 numbers, which show an increase in numbers.

If we compared I-526 applications as you have above for I-829, there were 2,771 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,600 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011.

That's approximately 73% increase in EB5 numbers on YOY basis.

Aren't statistics a wonderful thing!!

[Spectator]

Q, asking for clarifications:

1. I don't think all of 2009 cases have made it into demand yet. 2009 when done should be between 10 and 15K eventually, and right now, it's showing only 4K. What's your take?

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

[murali83]

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

That is very good. That way they would have pre-adjudicated all remaining cases by september. Hopefully that will help them take wise decisions on date movement in fy 2013. USCIS actually cannot expect for anything better. They will have 48K preadjudicated cases for eb2-ic all the way until April 2010. So it should be a cakewalk for them to decide date movement at least for another 2 yrs.

[suninphx]

sportsfan,

Very simplistically, here's my take.

There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.

The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.

Assuming inventory numbers to be correct is big assumption.

[Spectator]

Assuming inventory numbers to be correct is big assumption.

suninphx,

Agreed, which is why I said it was simplistic, but ball park it probably holds good I think, even if the numbers rise a bit. USCIS pre-adjudicated 15.5k in the previous 2 months according to the Demand Data.

Any reason to think it could be way off?

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Agreed, which is why I said it was simplistic, but ball park it probably holds good I think, even if the numbers rise a bit. USCIS pre-adjudicated 15.5k in the previous 2 months according to the Demand Data.

Any reason to think it could be way off?

Unfortunately I have not seen any corelation between demand data and inventory. In frenzy days or otherwise. For me, demand data is what matters end of the day, because that is going to drive COD. That way we do not have to worry if USCIS is cleaning up 'approvals' from inventory data.

[qesehmk]

Sport, here is what i think.
#1 - Yes. Not all 2009 cases are there in demand data. We can safely assume that 2009 will have similar density as 2008 which is about 1.5K per month.
#2 - You are right - I didn't include PWMBs. They would be probably 2K in 2012.
#3 - I think it is easier to predict based on prior year. I would ask what has changed fundamentally? Is there a reason EB2ROW demand could increase. I think not. Is there a reason EB1 demand could increase - actually yes. Is there evidence? Indirectly yes in the form of trackitt. Directly in the form of 485s filed ... the evidence is 20% reduction than an increase. How about EB4/5? They may not yield 10K. But 6K is quite possible IMHO. So if not 67K, EB2 could be looking at 57K => ~28-30K for EB2IC.

Thank you for reminding me to be conservative. I guess - of late i haven't been

Q, asking for clarifications:

1. I don't think all of 2009 cases have made it into demand yet. 2009 when done should be between 10 and 15K eventually, and right now, it's showing only 4K. What's your take?

2. When counting how many are issued GCs, do we also need to add PWMBs? Or are they already accounted for in the 13K starting backlog?

3. Why do you think EB2-IC should receive similar numbers as the last year? Last year was exception - in fact it marked the highest ever SOFAD seen by EB2-IC (32K) and highest ever visas consumed by EB2 as a whole (67K). It certainly wasn't a "normal" year. Isn't the additional 10K expectation a little bullish? (I would love nothing else to happen BTW). It's somewhat comforting to me personally because I have seen you tending to be on the conservative side always.

[kd2008]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.

[Spectator]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.

kd,

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the updated figures. The latest PDs Certified have a January 2012 PD, but the numbers are so low as to not be significant.

Eventually, I will update the PWD figures, but that might be a while.

[kd2008]

Thank you, Spec!

kd,

I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the updated figures. The latest PDs Certified have a January 2012 PD, but the numbers are so low as to not be significant.

Eventually, I will update the PWD figures, but that might be a while.

[veni001]

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.

Spec, we need your analysis!!!

20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.

From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here, data points towards higher EB1 demand!

[qesehmk]

veni

That's mindboggling data collection & crunching! It might be worthwhile to put the takeaway about what the data might be telling - in English. The reason being - it took me good 5-10 minutes to figure out what it was. So perhaps somebody new might not understand it at all.
Great compilation. I can't find any flaw in that logic. Great job!

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here, data points towards higher EB1 demand!

[Spectator]

Thanks Kd,
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA are updated.

Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.

FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)

FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)

FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)

It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.

Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here, data points towards higher EB1 demand!

Veni,

Just to add to your data and findings.

Doesn't that just reflect the fact that both FY2010 and FY2011 were years when the OFLC were clearing the backlog?

Interestingly, if you look at Certifications for the CY Priority Date Year, then they seem quite similar (Note:- 2011 is probably not fully complete yet).

PD 2009 - 48,737 Completions - 41,974 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 13.88%
PD 2010 - 49,201 Completions - 43,407 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.78%
PD 2011 - 48,515 Completions - 42,714 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.96%

I fully accept that those older cases cleared during the Backlog reduction exercise may have temporarily increased overall I-140 receipts in the system in EB2/EB3 . It isn't clear to me what the split might have been between EB2/EB3 and therefore how many might have led to the ability to actually file an I-485. i.e. has it resulted in a temporary hump in EB2-WW numbers and how long does that take to work through?

The balance has been steadily shifting to more IC (mainly I) cases and less WW cases. It would be interesting to know the EB2/EB3 split for EB2-ROW. How much has it shifted away from EB3 and towards EB2 over time?

[veni001]

veni

That's mindboggling data collection & crunching! It might be worthwhile to put the takeaway about what the data might be telling - in English. The reason being - it took me good 5-10 minutes to figure out what it was. So perhaps somebody new might not understand it at all.
Great compilation. I can't find any flaw in that logic. Great job!

Q,
I agree it's kind of high level picture, bottom line data is pointing towards higher EB1 usage!

I think Spec already point this from his data analysis.

[veni001]

Veni,

Just to add to your data and findings.

Doesn't that just reflect the fact that both FY2010 and FY2011 were years when the OFLC were clearing the backlog?

Interestingly, if you look at Certifications for the CY Priority Date Year, then they seem quite similar (Note:- 2011 is probably not fully complete yet).

PD 2009 - 48,737 Completions - 41,974 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 13.88%
PD 2010 - 49,201 Completions - 43,407 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.78%
PD 2011 - 48,515 Completions - 42,714 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.96%

I fully accept that those older cases cleared during the Backlog reduction exercise may have temporarily increased overall I-140 receipts in the system in EB2/EB3 . It isn't clear to me what the split might have been between EB2/EB3 and therefore how many might have led to the ability to actually file an I-485. i.e. has it resulted in a temporary hump in EB2-WW numbers and how long does that take to work through?

The balance has been steadily shifting to more IC (mainly I) cases and less WW cases. It would be interesting to know the EB2/EB3 split for EB2-ROW. How much has it shifted away from EB3 and towards EB2 over time?

Spec,
I agree with you, CY totals are very similar, and the shift is more towards IC (EB2).

With the current data points it is not that easy to figure out EB2/EB3 split for EB-ROW.

In addition, i am unsure about surge in i140 increase is entirely from EB1 or from EB2-NIW as well?

[Spectator]

I have now updated the PWD Data in FACTS & DATA with the FY2012 Q2 data.

[veni001]

I have now updated the PWD Data in FACTS & DATA with the FY2012 Q2 data.

Spec,
Thank you for the update, PWD Data also confirms the shift to EB2.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Now this is "original":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18327493