I have no stomach to argue with someone of Spec's reputation
Yes, I agree that the steady state logical look at the things yield the picture you are pointing to. I would be however very surprised if it really turns out like this.
There are several reasons in hindsight that make me believe we have reason to be optimistic. I have said those before, and let me again repeat them without sounding too annoying.
a) The date movement of the March bulletin was very strange. However in just about a month, CO came out suddenly saying that demand was rising and that he was going to put lights out for EB2-IC. Looking at the inventory report, it seems like the March EB1 inventory spike concerned him. However EB1 inventory tapered off in April and it is unlikely that the spike observed in March would be seen again (at least in near future - we don't know what the long term holds for us).
So if the March EB1 inventory is the sole reason for the imposed retrogression or the eventual "U", then that reason has to go away soon. On the other hand, while people were applying when they were current, inventory was being collected, so CO's statements in earlier year about demand being exceptionally low were very dubious. Either way, they have some engineering plans in place and they already experimented this year by putting in very aggressive QSP. Why not next year too? Why not even in bigger force? Why should they become conservative when they should be aggressive?
b) Why the piled up EB2-IC inventory is a problem? Post July 2007, they don't have EAD/AP renewal revenue to justify keeping a stockpile of thousands of applications wasting resources and space. The longer the applications are held, the more the pain - post pre-adjuducation RFEs (is there such a thing?), EVL, AC21 handling means more work for free. That's why they should be getting rid of EB2-IC applications earlier in the year rather than later (in Q4) even if it bends laws - after all, laws really don't mean much to the USCIS
c) I think we can increase our ballpark for next year's SOFAD. There are already murmurs about the EB1C abuse that can become loud voices shortly. Already, we know what they are capable of (Kazarian). I find it hard to believe that without putting on brakes, they will let EB1 get continually used up like it is. I still think that this years usage is simply a "demand trickled over from last year". Next year, EB1 should give more, and EB2-IC should hit about 30K give or take.
d) One other potential reason why they might want to reduce the EB2-IC inventory fast is to speed up China. By every indication, post 2008 Chinese demand is less - maybe so less than they can become current in a couple of years. Chinese are very adept at working behind the scene, and in this case (unlike 1962), they might turn out to be our friends.
I agree that I don't have any numbers and I may have hopeless rose colored glasses. Of course, I would listen to spec too if I had to make a critical decision. But if I had nothing good to do on a bored afternoon with depressed thoughts about potentially long GC waits, I would surely read my posts
EDIT: BTW, my original response about the Jan 2008 becoming current was straight out from the first post on this thread from Q. Q has an even more aggressive prediction of this year.
Originally Posted by murali83
I-140 Statistics
