EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[vishnu]

Q - in the rule register, it says eads to be granted to h1 spouses if the h1 has used ac 21 provisions... one of the provisions of ac 21 is extending h1 visa beyond the initial term of 3 + 3 years based on approved labor and 1-140 petitions...

[qesehmk]

vishnu - can you sight the rule register? Is it something that is already in place or being proposed?

Q - in the rule register, it says eads to be granted to h1 spouses if the h1 has used ac 21 provisions... one of the provisions of ac 21 is extending h1 visa beyond the initial term of 3 + 3 years based on approved labor and 1-140 petitions...

[vizcard]

This will no doubt help ppl but it is another band aid. Everyone who falls in those categories don't have EADs because they couldn't apply for 485 and that's because the dates are not current. Dates don't move because of visa quotas and limited numbers. They really need to address the heart of the problem.

[kkruna]

If it is EAD for dependent, is it EAD for the primary applicant as well? That would be interesting! If it does not mean EAD for primary applicant but only for dependents, that would be ironical. Am I missing something?

vishnu - can you sight the rule register? Is it something that is already in place or being proposed?

[vishnu]

Firstly, its all at proposed rule stage...so we must wait for it to be finalized. It is EAD for dependents as the primary already are working for their petitioning employer via the H1 visa. So it would be similar to the L1 and L2s getting EAD

[narendarrao]

Here is the link for the rule.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92

[abcx13]

Here is the link for the rule.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAg...&RIN=1615-AB92

I don't understand what this rule fixes. Don't derivative applicants like spouses already get EADs after filing I485? And I think one of the posts upthread mentioned that this rule only gives work authorization to applicants who've filed a 485. So what does it do?

I find the H1B system ridiculous when it comes to spouses. The US is probably the only country which doesn't let the spouses of work visa holders work! Absolutely moronic.

[vizcard]

This is pre-485.

Consider a H1B worker with -
- an approved(or pending?) I140 AND
- is past his/her 6 yr limit AND
- has not applied for I485 (because dates are not current).

This rule will grant spouses of those individuals work authorization. Hope that clears things up.

What I don't quite understand is the interpretation of "begun the process of seeking lawful permanent residence status". Does that mean I-140 applied or I-140 approved?

[usernameisnotvalid]

It should start when PERM is approved (or filed) because then only primary applicant can live here indefinitely (1 year extension) until his/her case is adjudicated.

[vizcard]

It should start when PERM is approved (or filed) because then only primary applicant can live here indefinitely (1 year extension) until his/her case is adjudicated.

I'm not sure if your comment was philosophical or related to this rule. However, PERM is with the DOL and not the USCIS (DHS). Due to this the USCIS won't have someone in the "system" until the I140 is applied for. Since H1B, H4 and I-140 are all within the USCIS system, they can be tied together through the SSN (or some other unique ID).

[usernameisnotvalid]

Actually that makes sense! Thanks.

I'm not sure if your comment was philosophical or related to this rule. However, PERM is with the DOL and not the USCIS (DHS). Due to this the USCIS won't have someone in the "system" until the I140 is applied for. Since H1B, H4 and I-140 are all within the USCIS system, they can be tied together through the SSN (or some other unique ID).

[abcx13]

This is pre-485.

Consider a H1B worker with -
- an approved(or pending?) I140 AND
- is past his/her 6 yr limit AND
- has not applied for I485 (because dates are not current).

This rule will grant spouses of those individuals work authorization. Hope that clears things up.

What I don't quite understand is the interpretation of "begun the process of seeking lawful permanent residence status". Does that mean I-140 applied or I-140 approved?

I see. But you HAVE to be beyond the 6 yr limit? Isn't the first condition sufficient to allow the spouse to work until dates become current?

[qesehmk]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

[geevikram]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

Thanks Q for some positive news, but what has changed between yest, when it was all gloom and doom and today? I (PD Jul 2008) was hoping to receive my GC sometime next year based on all the number crunching that ppl have been doing all over the net.(**, trackitt and here)

[bvsamrat]

It sounds moronic, but may not be in some peoples view point. As H1B has got some quota allocated and applicable to special skilled areas where local talent is not available. Introducing new people with unknown skilled areas may rob the local jobs. That would be the intent. L2 can get EAD. But L1 is for high level executives who require some incentives and has a lower time limit. H1B is a temperory occupation having 6 years limit.

But I agree on one point. Not having a SSN for 6-10 years makes H4 a non entity.

I don't understand what this rule fixes. Don't derivative applicants like spouses already get EADs after filing I485? And I think one of the posts upthread mentioned that this rule only gives work authorization to applicants who've filed a 485. So what does it do?

I find the H1B system ridiculous when it comes to spouses. The US is probably the only country which doesn't let the spouses of work visa holders work! Absolutely moronic.

[qesehmk]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile

Thanks Q for some positive news, but what has changed between yest, when it was all gloom and doom and today? I (PD Jul 2008) was hoping to receive my GC sometime next year based on all the number crunching that ppl have been doing all over the net.(**, trackitt and here)

[raj888]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile

Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?

[murali83]

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile

Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers

[bvsamrat]

My 2 cents. By this year end it should touch a part of 2009. Reason. To adjudicate all 2008 may not be easy as always there are applications taking more time to check and clear. Hence need to generate more demand

Hence it is logical to open a greater slot and see who can get through. That way ensures and generate demand for supply

But 2 cent only!

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile

[Mavrick]

Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile

[vizcard]

I see. But you HAVE to be beyond the 6 yr limit? Isn't the first condition sufficient to allow the spouse to work until dates become current?

That's what the proposed rule states.

I'm not going to comment on the stupidilty of that pre-condition though :P

[evoori]

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.”
I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..

EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600

So, GC issued with PD between Jan 2007 to July 2007 = 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).

For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008.. (i.e. 1500/month)..

# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350

So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.

Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).

They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.

[Spectator]

I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.

I've tried to follow the conversation while I was away.

One thing that didn't seem to be discussed was the differing apparent OR for China and India in EB2 based on the Inventory figures.

I only really looked at 2009 figures, since 2008 has had approvals and 2010 may not be complete.

China - 2009 Inventory = 2,913
China - 2009 PERM = 2,301

EB2-C 2009 OR = 1.27

India - 2009 Inventory = 13,429
India - 2009 PERM = 16,577

EB2-I 2009 OR = 0.81

Clearly, this could be for a variety of factors, but I would imagine the major factor is probably large numbers of EB2-NIW for China, which would not be reflected in the PERM data, and possibly a slightly lower attrition rate.

For PD2010 the derived OR to date based on the Inventory is China = 1.53 (975/637) and India = 0.88 (4,912/5,554)

It may be something to bear in mind in the future.

[qesehmk]

First I will explain some of this logic and then will address individual questions below:

If you look at trackitt data based on 485 filings; this is what you get:

Category--- 2012 FY --- 2011 YTD ---- 2011 FY Projected ---- % Change
EB2ROW ---- 605 ---------- 244 ------------ 366 -------------- -40%
EB1C ------ 247 -----------138 ------------ 207 -------------- -16%
EB1B -------123 ----------- 65 ------------- 97.5 ------------ -21%
EB1A------- 108 ----------- 56-------------- 84 -------------- -22%




So -40% reduction in EB2ROW and -20% reduction in EB1.

Consider that last year EB2 overall received 68K!!! So this year if anything that should increase. Even if that doesn't increase and EB2IC receive what they received last year (i.e. approx 30K), it should take the EB2IC dates into mid 2008 by itself. That's the rationale.

What has been allocated this year so far and what remains etc is all good. But step and back and look at this picture. Unless there is some other suprise in store e.g. USCIS clearing out entire EB1 or EB2ROW backlog - I think we shold be comfortable with the big picture and keep faith in movement. Clearing of backlog won't happen for the simple reason that 4-5 months of inventory always stays because of USCIS processing times. That's almost 12-18K for EB1 and EB2ROW combined.

Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.” I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600
So, they have issued 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC for Jan 2007 to July 2007 people. (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).
For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008..
# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350
So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.
Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).
They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.

Yes you are right. In fact you also need to add approx 5K for 2008. So total Q1 / Q2 allocation is at least 15K. But that still leaves EB2IC with another 15K which could easily move the dates into 2008 mid.

Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.

We have a decent history of proving him wrong. My experience is that he gives a story to suit his/DHS's/USCIS's decisions at that point of time. So not to trust or mistrust him - but fundamentally if we need a clear picture we need to go by data rather than word of a man.

Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers

murali - unfortunately they are capable of doing anything and nobody will even question them. But I will bet they will not let visas go waste since that is one of their mandates.

Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?

raj yours is the toughest question and I saved it for last! You are actually right. The only two things I can say in response - not sure it helps you - is that A) the inventory report has steadily become much more accurate over time. So the numbers now are more trustworthy than in past B) The visa allocation so far is not unusual if quarterly spillover was applied. Coupled this with 40% EB2ROW reduction and 20% EB1 reduction and prior years EB2IC utilization points finger to another 15K allocation for EB2IC. So how could they NOT move dates?

[qesehmk]

Welcome back Spec! People are eager to hear from you!

The timing of data publication was no coincidence DoS and USCIS are tracking your every move - oink oink.

I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.