EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[baba2s]

EB1 march inventory made hit the panic button. EB1 data is kind of strange, when we see last year OCT 2011 data, for Aug 2011 the number is 588, in may 2012 for Aug 2011 it is 769. Not sure why the number increased after 6 months, when the number should had decreased.

This raises another question are these numbers are 100% or not?

Those high numbers are because of slow processing of EB1 and Eb2-ROW.
A step took by CIS to get more spillover to EB2-I and C.. a way to reduce the backlog..

[Mavrick]

There is an xls file here updated May 3 2012,
what inventory is this. This is USCIS so is it all applicants(primary and dependents).
the demand data if i m not wrong has only primary numbers correct?
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Look at the tab for india.

Correct me if I'm wrong - How did all the gurus miss this document. This doc has all the numbers that we were looking for.

[kd2008]

Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

[bieber]

EB2IC inventory shows 1500 per month in 2008 and 1400 in 2009 which is way below 2500 (even 2000), I don't understand the concern by some members

[kd2008]

KNowing what I know now from the pending inventory of May 2012, I feel angry that CO did not make EB2IC current as he should have. People with pre-May 2010 PDs got a handsome bonus in getting their EAD/APs so quickly. Folks after that are going to rot for 3 to 4 yrs now.

[TeddyKoochu]

God Almighty!

EB2IC inventory is 39,577 + 8337 = 47,914!!!!

That is a HUGE number!

Teddy, you are not right in your estimate of 25K.

KD, I concede 25K estimate was way off. Now the 48K total even till May 2010 may include some ROW cases we are assuming that it’s purely EB2 I/C. Other than that this is really a huge roller coaster after the demand data. The number is literally quite huge.

[bieber]

It's more for 2008 because 5000 are already assumed to have received GCs. I think one of the disappointments is that the density did not really reduce in later months of 2008 as expected. It's around 1800-1900 per month for 2008, and much much lower for 2009 - that's agreed.

We were all fooled by CO's statement that the USCIS received *only 50%* of expected applications, which made some of us to conclude incorrectly that the density was far below 2500 per month even for 2008.

I STILL do not understand. Why did they move the dates into 2009 much less 2010? EB1 and EB2-ROW inventory does not show anything unusual expect the increased backlog for EB1 in March. After doing this in 2007, why do it again in 2012 especially now there is no EAD renewal revenue? My gut says something will happen. We should see some spillover this year.

is that 5000 number from some valid source or the estimation based on trackitt data? even after adding 5000 the 2008 inventory number is considerably lower than 2007 which has same number of perms

It looks like demand destruction is more in 1st half of 2008 comparted to Sept-Dec2007 and 2nd half of 2008

[TeddyKoochu]

Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447
23447/12 = 1953 per month

KD I believe 5K 2008 folks greened is a liberal to fair assumption. This way the 2008 density is 2K per month. OR of 1 assumed 2200 per month Ball Park. So this way OR is still higher than 0.9. The OR assumption of 0.8 by me was probably the highest that anyone had suggested but the actual OR is definitely closer to 0.9. It does point to some demand destruction but it’s hardly anything.

[Mavrick]

Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

OKAY, Chill Buddy.

[suninphx]

KD I believe 5K 2008 folks greened is a liberal to fair assumption. This way the 2008 density is 2K per month. OR of 1 assumed 2200 per month Ball Park. So this way OR is still higher than 0.9. The OR assumption of 0.8 by me was probably the highest that anyone had suggested but the actual OR is definitely closer to 0.9. It does point to some demand destruction but it’s hardly anything.

Actually OR is around 0.84 for PD2008 (assuming 5000 approvals). This also includes porting numbers. So if we take porting numbers out then OR is in range of what we were expecting.

[Kanmani]

Sportsfan, just see kd's view in common man's eyes. Mr.CO doesn't need to think or care about how much USCIS is short of funds. If Dos and uscis genuine intentions were not to get flooded , they must have stopped with 2008 numbers . Can't the USCIS look into the intake to see how many I-485 they received in 30 days and pass it to CO. They were bluffing/didn't care to see how many were actually received.

I agree with you kd, it is a wrong move indeed. unprofessional by all means !

[vizcard]

OKAY, Chill Buddy.

Correct me if I'm wrong - How did all the gurus miss this document. This doc has all the numbers that we were looking for.

Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.

mavrick - It was wrong on your part to call out the gurus..especially since u didn't read previous posts. Kd just pointed that out.

[imdeng]

Well... I think with all the discussions, I still stand by my original assessment of the following:

1. FY2012 - Finish 2007 PDs in case some numbers are available towards the end
2. FY2013 - Finish any 2007 overhang and take care of *most* of 2008
3. FY2014 - Complete any remaining 2008 along with 2009 filers
4. FY2015 - New intake, start working on 2010 PDs

All in all, we are still holding up the 5 year rule. So while things are bad, the talks of EB2I turning into EB3I are a bit premature IMHO.

People who should be really pissed are EB2C folks - they are completely getting messed up by EB2I. They are averaging 200-300 per month density - which is clearly a "C" worthy density - but their backlog will not get cleared for years because of the super high EB2I density.

[Jonty Rhodes]

June Visa Bulletin is out.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5712.html

Here is a comment.

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings during May, based on the originally announced May cut-off date.

E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months.

Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months.

[GhostWriter]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of completing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

[suninphx]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of crossing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

This is nice summary and puts lot of things in perspective. Thank you.

[ismile]

June Visa Bulletin is out.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5712.html

Here is a comment.

Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.

Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.

USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings during May, based on the originally announced May cut-off date.

E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.

Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.

Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months.

Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months.

pdf version : http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...n_June2012.pdf

Here EB2IC cutoff is 15APR07

[ismile]

pdf version : http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...n_June2012.pdf

Here EB2IC cutoff is 15APR07

- This is sept 2011 visa bulletin

[yank]

Visa bulletin:

So, with dates as 'U' are they trying to stop porting?

[yank]

Q & Big T,

Waiting for ur analysis on 485 and visa bulletin report please.

[abcx13]

Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology

----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740

I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342

Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000

OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%

OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%

The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of completing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.

And there'll probably be more porting as there is SFM in the dates. Add 3-5k for that.

[Mavrick]

June Visa Bulletin - "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013. "

I think our predictions are aligned with what CO is predicting until next Spring 2013

[murali83]

June Visa Bulletin - "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013. "

I think our predictions are aligned with what CO is predicting until next Spring 2013

I am not sure if anyone here predicted that dates will reach May 2010 in spring 2013. CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.

[HR3012]

Visa bulletin:

So, with dates as 'U' are they trying to stop porting?

Good point, I don't think they are trying to stop, but "U" makes porting not possible I guess.

[Jonty Rhodes]

I am not sure if anyone here predicted that dates will reach May 2010 in spring 2013. CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.

Murali, I am in total agreement.

This statement is nothing but a hogwash from CO and should not be taken seriously unless some real action happens on ground which I think is highly unlikely. I would be more than happy if I would be proven wrong.