EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[jkrocks]

I got a RFE on my 485, so defnitely all the Jan filers, should have hope, as i see that USCIS is still processing applications. Still waiting on my wife application which is still showing as intial review.

PD June 26 '2008
RCVD Date: Jan 9, 2012.
SRC12901058**

I am still waiting on letter, will update.

PUSH- Pray Untill Something Happens!..

[Spectator]

I agree. My concluding remark is that the movement seems to be orchestrated to ensure that a) visas wont be wasted, and b) the USCIS won't process applications for free. If I was a US government agency, in all honesty, I would be more concerned about b than a, because visas can always be taken by EB3. There was no need for such an aggressive move unless they had some assurance of cleaning up a majority of cases within an year. Let's see how this plays out.

sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[pdfeb09]

I think the consensus then is that, he will have to go out of the country if 140 doesn't clear up before his H1 expires. The best he can do then, is minimize his time outside.

the rule your friend is referring to is correct. You have to have applied 366 days before your H1B expires. I don't see any way of staying in the country once his H1B expires. Now if he wants to keep working for this company (and if his company wants him), they might have to literally go the extra mile.

Is it a multi-national company and whats his role ? He could potentially transfer to another office overseas (or in India) and return after a year with a brand new H1 or L1. If he comes as a L1, he doesn't need to go through the labor anyway. Ofcourse this doesn't help him stay in the country.

Thank you vizcard !
I was afraid about the rule being correct. He does have a good law firm working for his company. The company is huge and is multinational. They are even thinking about moving him to Canada for some time until he can get back in.

He is corect that, pending or approved, the PERM must have been submitted and received at least 365 days prior to the date the extension takes effect to qualify for a 1 year extension. The approval of the PERM doesn't confer any advantage at all, unlike the I-140.

The best option IMO if the I-140 is not approved in time is to leave the USA and work remotely until the I-140 is approved (preferably with PP).

Alternatively, he could leave the USA for the number of days to make up to 365 days. In that case, he could claim back the days spent outside the USA and the 1 year extension together. It depends how many days short he is. I suspect that may be too long from the tone of your post.

Other options would be to a COS to L1A (with a 7 year limit), but that is a fairly unlikely scenario.

If the spouse is also on H1B, then COS to H4 and stopping working is an option.

Ultimately it is either leave the USA or change status. I don't like the B1/2 or F1 options - that is gaming the system IMO. There is always the possibility of denial, leaving him out of status and accumulating unlawful presence.

It's a tough place to be.

Thank you Spectator !
You are the best ! Can he even get to L1A by COS? If there is a chance, his company may even consider it.
No, unfortunately his wife is on H4. I don't think he prefers to go on B1/B2 and neither does his company. Being a huge company, they would rather spend some dough and bring him back in later rather than mess with the law for this particular case. F1 is also out of question since he will have to be a full time student with at least 9 credits registered for a semester, and discharge his office duties (illegal).

I like your suggestion about leaving the country, especially since his company is willing and capable, before his H1 really expires and wait for his I140 to come through. He can then claim to have some time left on his H1 and return immediately and extend his status using 140. Is that possible?

I-140 premium takes 2 to 3 weeks. So as soon as his Labor is approved he should file premium I-140 and then extend his H1. If labor approval happens after Jul/Aug he will have to remain outside of USA until his labor is approved; I-140 approved and extension filed.

Thanks immi2910 ! Yes, once he gets his labor in hand I 140 will definitely be a premium processing. And you are right, I think I understand what you are saying about leaving the country with some H1 time left, so he can file for extension and return. He will not be able to do that if he lets his H1 expire before going out.

Spec
Having been started the process of PR , is it possible for the individual to convert to B1/F1 which are non-dual intent category?

Kanmani,

I only mentioned it for sake of completeness. I don't think it is a viable solution.

I have seen cases of COS being approved in various forums, but clearly they are then "landlocked", because they will have a very difficult time getting a Visa stamped to return because of the potential immigrant intent. Having said that, the filing of PERM for a person doesn't meet that threshold. What they would have difficulty with, is proving they have a foreign residence they have no intent of abandoning and that they intend to return at the end of visa period or upon completion of their studies as appropriate.

My 2c.

Thanks Spec.
I heard of situations where parents with previously stamped visitor visas were denied admissions at port of entry after their PR application is filed . I have not seen real time experiences though.

Thank you Kanmani and Spec for exploring this possibility.

Thanks for all your help !!

[leo4ever]

Spec,

I received a 2 yr combo card.

[Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.[/QUOTE]

[goforgreen]

This is for people like me who after filing in last few months have not got GC, something to lighten the mood and also its friday :-) . The other day I was thinking about the similarities between the gurus here and our Indian cricket team greats

Ganguly - Q, for being the pioneer and captain and giving the confidence to the folks here like Ganguly did to the Indian team of 90s and 2000s

Dravid - Teddy, ever the hard working and disciplined and always a team man sharing credit with others

Laxman - Spec, for his sublime touch and articulation

Sehwag - Soggadu, for not having the time and patience to do analysis (like Sehwag not having the patience for defence and technique) but hitting the ball out for a six with his wit and humour

[bvsamrat]

The million dollar (Mega) question is : If it is so clear that so many applications would come that could take upto 2014 to clear, what made to advance the dates to add so many applications in the first place?.

There may be some other reason or some change in the game plan of allocations or spill over rules.

sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[mysati]

Spec,

I received a 2 yr combo card.

[Besides, USCIS had the option to grant 2 year EAD cards - it appears they chose not to pursue that route, or perhaps a 2 year combi card with AP is not available. I've never seen a confirmed report of one being issued.

I certainly have seen people with a current PD being issued 2 year EAD cards and know one personally.

[/QUOTE]

On a lighter note, What a waste of a 2yr. combo card!!! In your case, a 2 week combo card would have sufficed

[JJcalifornian]

All Gurus, Please Help ! I know this is not the right thread for this question, but am posting it here for the visibility.

One of my friends is in the following situation:
1. 6th year of H1B and filed his labor during the 6th year. H1B expires in June sometime. If he captures some of the time spent outside the country, it may get him to start/mid August 2012.
2. Labor went into a random Audit. From the trackit trends that he observed and from talking to his attorney, he thinks it will set his labor decision back by at least 4 months.
3. According to him (I don't know the source), if you have filed your labor in the 6th year of H1B, you cannot get an extension of 1 year even if the labor is cleared. You have to have your 140 cleared and apply for 3 years.
4. Given all this, if his labor decision extends beyond July/August (beyond his H1b), what are his options to continue to stay in the country and continue with his GC process? His company is more than willing to keep him and will go extra miles if they have to (so long as everything is legal).

PS: I have already given him the address to this site and asked him to follow and pose the question.

Is there a way he can file another labor with a slightly modified job code/description or for a different location, so that it may get clear before Aug2012.

[mesan123]

Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?

sportsfan,

If the government agencies were truly co-ordinated, with the same goals, I would agree with you. But they are not, and DHS and DOS do not work well together.

DOS only primary concern is (a). I don't think they will deliberately make USCIS life difficult, but (b) is not DOS concern if it might interfere with (a). Under use of spillover in EB2 would be seen as a failure. Only USCIS would rank (b) higher than (a).

The COD movement to 01MAY10 will probably bring in the order of 50k new applications, of which not more than 15k might get used this year. That leaves 35k, plus any future porting cases, for FY2013 and beyond.

In a situation where EB5 numbers are increasing and EB1 has come back to full usage and the economy is improving, it is difficult to see where the visas would come for your scenario. EB2-non IC might yield more visas in the near future, but there are limits to that increase.

I honestly can't see the new backlog being cleared until FY2014 under any circumstances.

[vizcard]

The million dollar (Mega) question is : If it is so clear that so many applications would come that could take upto 2014 to clear, what made to advance the dates to add so many applications in the first place?.

There may be some other reason or some change in the game plan of allocations or spill over rules.

1. Lack of visibility to actual demand at the time it happened
2. Higher than actual expectation of SOFAD
3. To give as many people EAD as possible

Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?

I'm not Spec but my guesstimate is the earliest it'll move past may 2010 is early to mid FY2014.

[goforgreen]

1. Lack of visibility to actual demand at the time it happened
2. Higher than actual expectation of SOFAD
3. To give as many people EAD as possible

I would agree with 1,2 but not 3. Why would USCIS/DOS care for giving EADs to as many people as possible.

[Pdmar08]

I would agree with 1,2 but not 3. Why would USCIS/DOS care for giving EADs to as many people as possible.

Call me whatever but i wont rule out election year politics.
Remember the all dates were current in 2007 and big forward movements started in 2011.
One of my friends had remarked(much before i joined the forum and much before i could see any light) that it will move when elections get close.
Again, may or may not be true but i believe it.

[imdeng]

Pre-GC India/China people, who number in maybe a couple hundred thousands, who can't even vote, can't even donate to political campaigns are hardly the constituency that the political folks will go out of their way to pander, especially when there is also a slight risk of pissing off the nativist group in the country. I doubt that election year politics has any role to play in PD movement - surely not on the positive side.

Call me whatever but i wont rule out election year politics.
Remember the all dates were current in 2007 and big forward movements started in 2011.
One of my friends had remarked(much before i joined the forum and much before i could see any light) that it will move when elections get close.
Again, may or may not be true but i believe it.

[idiotic]

Spec

So if you think the current backlog will be cleared by FY2014. do you mean end of FY 2014? and when do you expect the dates move beyond may 2010?

I think all of the gurus should throw their thoughts on these two questions in the EB2 predictions link and keep on updating them. The same question will pop up again and again for sure.

=> Approx timeline for current backlog till May 2010 to be cleared
=> When will dates start move past May 2010 to give more people EAD/AP

[usernameisnotvalid]

For 2007 when they made everybody current, there was a conspiracy theory as why they did it and it was that President Bush was pushing an immigration overhaul bill with the help from Sen McCain and the anticipation was that it would pass. Because of that they wanted to clear all the backlogs.

Again a conspiracy theory!

Pre-GC India/China people, who number in maybe a couple hundred thousands, who can't even vote, can't even donate to political campaigns are hardly the constituency that the political folks will go out of their way to pander, especially when there is also a slight risk of pissing off the nativist group in the country. I doubt that election year politics has any role to play in PD movement - surely not on the positive side.

[qesehmk]

Thanks for asking. I was being a bit lazy .... I have updated the header. Will again update in 2 weeks.

I think all of the gurus should throw their thoughts on these two questions in the EB2 predictions link and keep on updating them. The same question will pop up again and again for sure.

=> Approx timeline for current backlog till May 2010 to be cleared
=> When will dates start move past May 2010 to give more people EAD/AP

[TeddyKoochu]

- @codesmith congratulations to you and your family on GC.
- @sportsfan33 I finally got my approval on 15th Mar.

[makmohan]

For 2007 when they made everybody current, there was a conspiracy theory as why they did it and it was that President Bush was pushing an immigration overhaul bill with the help from Sen McCain and the anticipation was that it would pass. Because of that they wanted to clear all the backlogs.

Again a conspiracy theory!

Legal immigrants (especially EB* and H1Bs) are not relevant for Presidential politics. Undocumented immigrants are. One might argue that EB* are future voters but the time has shown that same people later vote based on their ideology than based on a thought of voting against who troubled them during GC process. Otherwise there would have been a big fundraising push against Grr$$leeyy by EB* community. There seems none.

So all these conspiracy theories are futile. Sit back n relax, and let's keep chanting - "mera number kab ayega" (when will I get my number?) !

[redbull099]

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.

If the dates go back to 2007, do I stand to receive the EAD/AP even though my priority date is March 2009 ? Or will the applications be shelved till my PD is current again ?

My current H1 is expiring in Sept 2012. I was hoping to receive the EAD so that I dont have to go through the H1B process again.

Any thoughts are appreciated.

PD: March 14 2009
485 app Recd Dt: Feb 24 2012
No FP notice so far.

[idiotic]

Thanks for asking. I was being a bit lazy .... I have updated the header. Will again update in 2 weeks.

Thanks Qesehmk. I somehow feel that suddenly building a huge pile of applications and then waiting for 3 years to get over them and then repeating the process again will not be preferred way if the movement was indeed orchestrated. They will eventually converge on something like letting in as many people as were approved the previous year thereby maintaining a constant backlog at any point. I am not sure how they can do such a thing without breaking current laws.

[imdeng]

PD Retrogression has not effect on EAD processing. There are EADs being issued every day - even today several EADs went out. 6 of them went out just from NSC yesterday in trackitt. You might want to check your trackitt search parameters. With 02-24 RD, you should expect EAD most probably in second-third week of April, assuming you are in NSC - TSC is faster by some 20 days right now.

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.

If the dates go back to 2007, do I stand to receive the EAD/AP even though my priority date is March 2009 ? Or will the applications be shelved till my PD is current again ?

My current H1 is expiring in Sept 2012. I was hoping to receive the EAD so that I dont have to go through the H1B process again.

Any thoughts are appreciated.

PD: March 14 2009
485 app Recd Dt: Feb 24 2012
No FP notice so far.

[gomesnj]

Hi,

I am a recent filer of I485 sent to USCIS on Mar 23th, RD: 03/26/2012, PD: 02/11/2010 EB2.
The below link in murthy says that all I485 needs to wait for approval who all applied after Mar 23rd.
http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Does it mean that if the dates retrogress to Aug 15 2007, the EAD/AP for the recent filers like me has to wait or
will the EAD/AP will be approved as the dates are current as of now.
Please advise

[mbasense]

Hi, This is my first post.

Have a question reg. the EAD approvals in the current scenario. In light of the predictions/confirmation of internal retrogression, I haven't seen any EAD approvals in trackitt 485 tracker (sort by EAD approval date) after March 23rd 2012. So, my question is: if the dates retrogress, what happens to our EAD/AP approvals for most of the recent 485 filers who did nt receive the EAD yet.

redbull099 : i have been 'trackking' that list everyday, I have seen a lot of EAD approvals , one even came in today 03/30, but of late more of Neb. approvals are coming in, Texas seems to have slowed down. Anyway EAD/AP processing and approval must happen irrespective of 485 PD.

[idiotic]

Hi,

I am a recent filer of I485 sent to USCIS on Mar 23th, RD: 03/26/2012, PD: 02/11/2010 EB2.
The below link in murthy says that all I485 needs to wait for approval who all applied after Mar 23rd.
http://murthy.com/nflash/nf_032912.html
Does it mean that if the dates retrogress to Aug 15 2007, the EAD/AP for the recent filers like me has to wait or
will the EAD/AP will be approved as the dates are current as of now.
Please advise

EB3 is not current yet for many people who filed EAD in 2007. But they will continue to get extension. I think it is same case. EAD / AP approval dont need your PD to be current.

[mesan123]

On a lighter note....who is playing Mega Million tonight

Will remove this post by night.....

Should We have Q led team for that and play ....our Soggadu , Nishanth , Teddy, Spec, kanmani,leo & rest of Q family anyone can join.....

By the way if we win, we can buy our Green Cards in short time....