EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[cm9201]

Thank you dreamer, mine is TSC, I have it on trackitt

[mesan123]

Congratulations ...

I got greened, got CPO mail on 17/03/2012 but dependent not approved yet..
PD 05/08/2008
ND 01/13/2012
AP/EAD: 03/01/12
485CPO: 03/17/12
waiting for dependents approval.

[geevikram]

geevikram,

I am in your shoes back in July 2007, decided not file upon consulting attorney.

Thanks Veni, that's what I'm going to do too. May have to wait another 4 months (oct bulletin), but I think it is completely worth the hassle. I've H1 until Jul 2013 anyway.(hopefully, don't have to use all the time)

[Spectator]

I've posted some thoughts about the remainder of the FY on the first page.

[vizcard]

I've posted some thoughts about the remainder of the FY on the first page.

you make very reasonable points and assumptions. I think 2008 PDs should plan on a spring-summer 2013 GC time frame .. unless u are lucky enough to get in before May 1. 2009 PDs will most likely be FY 2014. Is this fair ?

what i wonder about is whether or not USCIS and DOS have a real handle on the numbers .. in real time. Considering reports come out on much later than what the data represents, I wonder if its just a reporting delay or if they really have to grind through numbers to get reasonable reporting data.

[letmesee]

Hi,

Need help on getting police clearance certificate. I went for my h1b renewal 4 weeks back. The visa officer asked me about a past false dowry related case of my brother which was quashed by the high court 2 yrs back. The officer said he would need to do further back ground check and get back to me pretty soon. I did not receive any letter/case number from the consulate. I was wondering if I can get a PCC and email it to the consulate as further proof that there is no pending charge against my name. I would appreciate any info regarding the same. I'm still waiting for a response from the VO.

[vgraj1]

Next 1 year focus is Spill Over & H.R 3012.

1> for doing reasonable estimate of EB2 I & C recent filing we need to wait till next inventory report.

2> spill over left for FY 2012 is
....................
In this 20K might have consumed ( pre July 2007 cases, porting + post July 2007).

with early spill over VO is seeing demand & supply is meeting for rest of the year in categories EB1 & EB2 ROW. 20K spill over happened in 1st Half year but another 10K available for 2nd half year so VO want to wait till last Quarter & reduce expectation. with 10K VARIABLE they can't approve cases from 2007 to 2010 he has to bring order. where we end by Oct 1st 2012 depends on number of filling for 2008 mostly likely some where in 2008 probability of getting in to 2009 is less

Good work Srividya, so, what is the expectation in FY 2013?

[Spectator]

you make very reasonable points and assumptions. I think 2008 PDs should plan on a spring-summer 2013 GC time frame .. unless u are lucky enough to get in before May 1. 2009 PDs will most likely be FY 2014. Is this fair ?

what i wonder about is whether or not USCIS and DOS have a real handle on the numbers .. in real time. Considering reports come out on much later than what the data represents, I wonder if its just a reporting delay or if they really have to grind through numbers to get reasonable reporting data.

vizcard,

Your time scales seem reasonable. Of course it depends on the level of SOFAD available in the future as well. The COD should get back to early 2008 fairly quickly in FY2013. I would hope PD's in 2010 to a little past the current COD would be covered in FY2014 as well, since 2009 was quite a lean year.

I'm sure you are correct about the difficulty in getting good numbers quickly enough. It is hardly USCIS strongest point. They appear to still live in the Stone Age in that respect.

I see people on Trackitt are quite angry and surprised. As I have mentioned before, CO's strategy has allowed the maximum number of people to apply for I-485. With a more controlled movement, the dates would never have reached May 2010.

He probably should have retrogressed earlier, possibly last month when he saw PD in late 2008 being approved. That could have preserved earlier PDs being approved first and he still would have had an option to release the COD a bit later if insufficient cases were approved.

EB1 is an odd one. I can't decide whether CO did it on purpose so he could advance the COD for as long as possible, or he was being fed really bad data from USCIS, which he was forced to believe.

[fedupwithgc]

Hi,

Need help on getting police clearance certificate. I went for my h1b renewal 4 weeks back. The visa officer asked me about a past false dowry related case of my brother which was quashed by the high court 2 yrs back. The officer said he would need to do further back ground check and get back to me pretty soon. I did not receive any letter/case number from the consulate. I was wondering if I can get a PCC and email it to the consulate as further proof that there is no pending charge against my name. I would appreciate any info regarding the same. I'm still waiting for a response from the VO.

Till what stage did your case go ? Was chargesheet filed or NBW issued in your case? If Passport was impounded or Lookout Circular issued previously then consulate may have a record of it about your passport. You can submit the High Court Quash documents to the consulate for speedy approval.

I know of one case where NBW was issued but no LOC or Red Corner Notice issued, the applicant took the fir quash documents from high court to the interview but the consulate didnt ask anything and gave the visa right away.

In your case it looks like the consulate is aware of the situation.

[GC-Utopic]

Some useful info to understand the process of Background check ,,

http://immigrationroad.com/green-car...rity-check.php

http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrele...ecks_42506.pdf

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...ing-020909.pdf

http://www.cyrusmehta.com/related/Ay...ame_Checks.pdf

[shreyasai2004]

Gurus,

I have one quick question. I don't know this is the right place to post this question.
My employer is asking me to fill out the I-9 form with EAD information.
That means my status will change from H1 to EAD. My H1 is valid until Feb 2014.
Because I don't want to move on EAD but I applied for EAD for if emergencie comes.
Is it ok to fill out the I-9 form with EAD information that means that we are using EAD and status has been changed from H1B to EAD.
And employer is telling that they are not revoking my H1B and when ever I want to come on H1B status I can move.
Please help me regarding this issue.

Thanks in Advance Gurus

Thanks
Shreya

[tackle]

Some useful info to understand the process of Background check ,,

http://immigrationroad.com/green-car...rity-check.php

http://www.uscis.gov/files/pressrele...ecks_42506.pdf

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...ing-020909.pdf

http://www.cyrusmehta.com/related/Ay...ame_Checks.pdf

Thank you for the links. I already knew most of the information from the links by hearsay. But it's good to confirm that from official memos. Thanks.

[suninphx]

With several PD2008 people already approved, the COD post retrogression may not mean much IMO. It would be interesting to watch though if visa approvals for EB2IC dry up starting from April. (That would also mean that there are enough non IC cases are/will be ready to be approved for ~46% visa numbers which are left - which I highly doubt). I hope retrogression will help us to get some reliable data in terms of inventory.

[makmohan]

Friends - question regarding education loan:

My PD is last weel of Apr-2008. I have my EAD/AP cards. This questions assumes that I won't get GC this year which is a fair assumption based on what Gurus have to say on hard data facts.

At what stage will I be able to apply for education loans which are exclusively for permanent residents? Will having EAD card suffice or do I have to wait for my GC cards?

It has been tough to get any good education loan on H1 without a valid co-signer (who will risk being a co-signer in this economy?).

Any input is appreciated.

- Makmohan

[imdeng]

With Apr-2008 PD I think you have a very good shot at getting your GC this FY. Now to your question, EAD/AP is not equivalent to GC as far as Student Loans are concerned. AFAIK, you will have to wait for the actual GC to be issued.

If you are going for a professional degree (e.g. MBA), then the top programs often have a deal with CitiAssit where the school acts as a co-signer and you don't need other co-signers. Worth exploring?

Friends - question regarding education loan:

My PD is last weel of Apr-2008. I have my EAD/AP cards. This questions assumes that I won't get GC this year which is a fair assumption based on what Gurus have to say on hard data facts.

At what stage will I be able to apply for education loans which are exclusively for permanent residents? Will having EAD card suffice or do I have to wait for my GC cards?

It has been tough to get any good education loan on H1 without a valid co-signer (who will risk being a co-signer in this economy?).

Any input is appreciated.

- Makmohan

[makmohan]

With Apr-2008 PD I think you have a very good shot at getting your GC this FY. Now to your question, EAD/AP is not equivalent to GC as far as Student Loans are concerned. AFAIK, you will have to wait for the actual GC to be issued.

If you are going for a professional degree (e.g. MBA), then the top programs often have a deal with CitiAssit where the school acts as a co-signer and you don't need other co-signers. Worth exploring?

Thanks imdeng. I checked with CitiAssist and they now have a co-signer requirement (not sure; may be due to economy or for my school - top MBA program but not in top 10). Credit is indeed very tight.

Looks like I will have to wait patiently to receive my GC. Hopefully my GC comes before a point where I cannot sustain tuition payments through other means and my savings!

- Makmohan

[mesan123]

VSC 485 processing dates move back from 4 months to August 14, 2011 and for TSC it is June 2, 2011 .... 485 processing times for VSC and TSC published today

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

[bookworm]

VSC 485 processing dates move back from 4 months to August 14, 2011 and for TSC it is June 2, 2011 .... 485 processing times for VSC and TSC published today

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

What does this data point mean in how it impacts processing of EAD/AP/GC? Does it mean that PD is retrogressing to Apr 15 2007?

[GCKnowHow]

I remember seeing TSC as April 2011 few days back.
Isn't it a a movement forward?

VSC 485 processing dates move back from 4 months to August 14, 2011 and for TSC it is June 2, 2011 .... 485 processing times for VSC and TSC published today

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

[mygctracker]

Spec,

I've read your thoughts and completely agree with you. But have a question to you though.

Given the fact that CIS is approving AOS applications with PD's as far as Oct 2008, and DOS to retrogress to as back as Aug 2007, then what exactly does it mean? Would these late 2008 approvals stand out as a CIS mistake, when dates start to move very slowly past Aug 2007?

Like you said, DOS would move dates from Aug 2007 slowly & steadily taking porting, pending, etc cases into consideration. People who weren't lucky to be picked up by CIS, during this fast pace approval mode, would curse CIS for sure.

Thanks for your insight.

I've posted some thoughts about the remainder of the FY on the first page.

[mesan123]

It shows what cases they are processing now....for TSC it moved one month a head for VSC it moved back from 4 months processing time to AUG 2011 applications..... so it means VSC processing time now is around 7 months..

What does this data point mean in how it impacts processing of EAD/AP/GC? Does it mean that PD is retrogressing to Apr 15 2007?

[Spectator]

Spec,

I've read your thoughts and completely agree with you. But have a question to you though.

Given the fact that CIS is approving AOS applications with PD's as far as Oct 2008, and DOS to retrogress to as back as Aug 2007, then what exactly does it mean? Would these late 2008 approvals stand out as a CIS mistake, when dates start to move very slowly past Aug 2007?

Like you said, DOS would move dates from Aug 2007 slowly & steadily taking porting, pending, etc cases into consideration. People who weren't lucky to be picked up by CIS, during this fast pace approval mode, would curse CIS for sure.

Thanks for your insight.

mygctracker,

I'm not sure it can be said to be a USCIS mistake. Rather it is a result of the Cut Off Dates not retrogressing earlier.

Generally, USCIS appear to have processed cases in VB order. Along the way, they have generated a large number of RFEs, which they then have to wait for a response to.

In the meantime, USCIS have continued to process the applications and eventually started on the January VB filers.

With the Cut Off Dates still meaning everybody was Current, any Jan VB cases that were adjudicated and found approvable had to be approved. To do anything else would have been unlawful if the visa request was granted. Clearly, the VO are still giving out visas for these dates.

Had the COD retrogressed earlier, then those cases could not have been approved and would have started to increase the Demand Data totals.

I think it was very difficult for the Visa Office. USCIS don't have an enviable history for approving cases quickly. I was slightly surprised the Cut Off Dates did not retrogress somewhat in the April VB.

Now we are left with all of April with the COD still at May 2010.

The VO do have the option of stopping allocation of visas to EB2-IC, if they think there are no more numbers available.

I am aware that my conclusions are based on certain assumptions, which might be proved incorrect. I've tried to figure the numbers using different approaches and reached the same conclusion. I actually hope I am wrong.

Even so, a "spillover season" consisting of the first 6 months, rather than the last 3 months is still an improvement. In terms of building an inventory and allowing as many people as possible to file their I485, the VO have done a very good job, even if people don't appreciate that fact at the moment..

My take anyway.

[vizcard]

Spec,

I've read your thoughts and completely agree with you. But have a question to you though.

Given the fact that CIS is approving AOS applications with PD's as far as Oct 2008, and DOS to retrogress to as back as Aug 2007, then what exactly does it mean? Would these late 2008 approvals stand out as a CIS mistake, when dates start to move very slowly past Aug 2007?

Like you said, DOS would move dates from Aug 2007 slowly & steadily taking porting, pending, etc cases into consideration. People who weren't lucky to be picked up by CIS, during this fast pace approval mode, would curse CIS for sure.

Thanks for your insight.

It doesn't mean anything. By rule, one can be approved as long as one is current. So the USCIS is fully justified in approving cases that are current regardless of PD (looks like RD is the critical date more than PD). Retrogessing is a mechanism that CO is using to not only control usage of visa numbers but also to give GCs to the earliest PDs.

I think people should be thankful that they got to apply for EAD rather than focus on missing out on GC.

[immi2910]

http://www.immihelp.com/greencard/ad...-employer.html

Thanks for the link but I think the situation is slightly different.

However, if I-140 is cancelled as may happen with OP then I believe you cannot use it to file I-485 (since you need a valid I-140 to file I-485).

EDIT: My understanding is based on this news report from Murthy - http://www.murthy.com/mb_pdf/102111_P.html. I may not have understood it correctly. However, they do say it is safer to file PERM and I-140 if you change jobs (you do retain your I-140 PD).

EDIT2: This (http://www.murthy.com/mb_pdf/120911_P.html) news report says it is not possible to apply for I-485 but then AC21 was not invoked in this example.

I think it is safer to just file for PERM and new I140.

[bookworm]

It shows what cases they are processing now....for TSC it moved one month a head for VSC it moved back from 4 months processing time to AUG 2011 applications..... so it means VSC processing time now is around 7 months..

Thanks Mesan