EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Spec

Agree on DoS using their own numbers to set the dates. And historically that has been the cause of retrogression. But as can be seen the discrepancy has reduced a lot over last few years with the concept of preadjudication.

Regarding "NEWS" ... only admins can post news. Other users can always post a normal post in EB2 thread. And that's not my choice, that's how vbulletin works. So sorry folks ... you simply need to add a normal post and then an admin can always post it as a news. I would request admin to break the news and give credit to folks which is what SPEC already did.


Now about date movement
I think all of us understand that moving a date to a certain point and having all teh visas to clear all the demand upto that date are not exactly the same thing!! Otherwise there would never ever be retrogression!!! Right.

So from that standpoint, what I had posted earlier is only incremental analysis to teh dates. The reason I am not using Jul/aug 2006 is because teh date is already moved to Oct based on the expected spillover that is going to be available in June. If you do not use that assumption then increase EB1 range to 9-15K + 4-8K from ROW + 6-8K from EB5 = 19-31K total.

Now mind you these numbers 19-31K are free from portings. They will be applied solely to backlog and PWMBS. But we have already discussed that PWMBs are predominant in the range Jan-Jul 2007. And they can't be processed this fast. So that means 19-31K will be applied to the inventory post Jul-06. Do the math. That gives us a range of first week of Mar to all the way Aug 2007. It seems too good to be true. However consider this, when we started teh year, our fears were portings and PWMBs impacting current backlog. Both turned out mild impacts so far. (by the way I do not call anybody with post Jul07 as PWMB because for them the boat left before their labor approved). Then EB1 has shown considerable promise, ROW inventory in Jun is showing considerable promise. If they have 4K to be processed from 2010 and 2K from 2009 that tells you that USCIS is not in a hurry to process those over EB2IC from 2006-07. As I always keep saying this indicates policy taking precedence over processing.

EB5 is a bit of a dark horse. But not much since even if USCIS accelerates a number of things ... the demand inherently is not there. Thus there is reasonable SOFAD and all SOFAD is exclusively going to be used for clearing the backlog which is now becoming apparent.

Again my numbers may be off by 1-2K here and there. But what I have tried to lay out is a thought process. Mar-Aug 2007. Take your pick!!

Q,

In that case, you have to look at Inventory from July 2006 onwards for EB2-I and August 2006 onwards for EB2-C.

....

Finally, even if there is a mismatch between the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand data (seen most evidently in EB3-ROW), then DOS would use their own figures to set the Cut Off Dates.

....

As a PS, natvyas mentioned that he couldn't post the news himself, as the forum said he was unauthorized to do so. It would be nice if we could resolve that problem, (whatever the cause), by way of a thank you.

Q,
I will steal your phrase here... with a little twist..

'If this is true, aapke ke muh mein Haldirams Mithayi ka pura inventory!!'

My PD is Dec 2010 and if DOS makes the dates current it will help me take some important personal and professional decisions.
I had been a slacker/lazy in the past towards Green Card processing on couple of occassions, otherwise, my PD would have been in early 2007.

Good Luck to all of us..
S

Good luck skpanda! Mine was supposed to be Apr 2003, pushed to Mar 2005, company F'd the date and now its Mar 2007. Welcome to GC land aka screw-the-career-card.
Sorry for the fowl language. Other admins I wouldn't mind if YOU delete this one. Sometimes I can't help myself.

[qesehmk]

GCW very astute post. Pls note my post is only directly correct. I didn't bother to get the exact numbers from what we have derived in the past.
Thanks for pointing out CP.... I allowed for about 3K there.
I agree about Jun 1st date for inventory.
I agree on #3 a said earlier. Also agree on #4.

Don't quite agree on #5. I would say the inventory does confirm once again that portings are insignificant. Given that we are so late in the year and PWMBs did n
t have chance to file ... it also tells us that teh SOFAD will be exclusively used for backlog.
Finally the inventory does tell us that ROWs are not being processed with the speed of light as they did in 2010.

Q/ Spec & Others,

Thanks for posting the Inventory data as of June 2011.


Few quick points noted by me:

1. The data does not include CP and includes Service centers and Field Offices only. It is just inventory data giving the number of cases pending with USCIS, whether qualified or not. It is a USCIS report. Monthly determination of demand data is prepared by DoS and based on which CO and his team prepares cut off dates.

2. Although title says June 2011, it should be taken as 06/01/2011 (1st day of June 2011)

3. I remember one of Q's posts, where he mentioned that 6K was the spillover allocated in June 2011, moving EB2 IC cut off dates to 15 Oct 2006. As per my calculation, it is 8K, from the data.

4. Number of porting cases and who missed PWMB is less than 200 from EB2 India (increase in number of applications) for the applicants between July 2006 and December 2006. This is a really a good news and I was anxious about the number of upgrades and PWMB. If their number were to overwhelm, then it would be difficult to move the cut off dates. Over all, upgrades and PWMB seems to be less than estimated or would not exceed the estimated number of 3000.

5. In the absence of of info such as how many visas issued so far, countries wise and how much is left over for issue from June 2011 to end of this fiscal year 2011, this report does not give me any understanding. It leads us back to our inconclusive predicting game. I would be better off if I can do this kind of predicting game in Las Vegas casino. (Atlantis is also OK, NC is average, Detroit is not good).

6. Based on data provided Spec-o-rama and others, I would continue to hope that there will be further spill over of about 4K to 6K in EB1, 5.5K from EB2 ROW and another 5.8K from EB5. Total spillover available would be in the range of 14K to 18K. EB2 india and china would move to March-April 2007.

Spec agree. So in essence you are saying portings+pwmbs so far are about 3052. I am heading out too in a while. Have a great weekend guys!

Q,

It is a holiday weekend and I don't have much available time to do a proper analysis.

When an Inventory comes out, rather than looking forward from those figures, I prefer to try to calculate what the revised October 1 situation would have to have been, then apply the whole predicted SOFAD to that figure.

A very simplistic calculation for EB2-I.

June Inventory total - 22,536
Approved to date (estimate) - 4,770
Derived October starting figure - 27,306

Actual October starting figure - 24,254 (from Old Inventory)

Underlying change - An addition of 3,052 cases between October 1 and the end of May.

I actually make a more complicated calculation, but that gives an idea.

[natvyas]

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K

[Spectator]

Last post for a while.

If natvyas was trying to post as Breaking News, that would explain it. I took the comment to mean he couldn't post at all and was I using news with a small n. Your explanation makes a great deal of sense.

My initial thought also was that the 3k was possibly indicative of PWMB, porting and LO cases. The number will probably be slightly higher once I have a chance to do a proper analysis, but it sounds in the right range.

A rough calculation says the difference in movement between using the USCIS Inventory versus the Demand data is March 2007 to June 2007, based on the SOFAD figure I am using.

I have to favor the later date, since that is based on the DOS figures. I think we are probably entirely in agreement on the possible range, with the information available to date.

As you point out, the fact that cases have appeared on the USCIS Inventory is not the same as meaning they can or will be approved within the FY!

Have a great one!

[natvyas]

I couldnt post at all till few mins ago when I requested the admin for posting rights......

I picked up the new inventory data information from a thread on IV's website

[qesehmk]

LoL Guru!!

Last post for a while.

Natvyas EB4 last year didn't provide any SOFAD. We don't expect any this year. Inventory is a snapshot. You can't say how many were granted till date simply based on inventory.

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K

I guess that was because you didn't confirm your registration on your registered email. So I manually confirmed it and now it became active. Welcome!

I couldnt post at all till few mins ago when I requested the admin for posting rights......

I picked up the new inventory data information from a thread on IV's website

[gcwait2007]

In the last few posts from Q and GCW they havent accounted for EB4 spill-over. Any special reason behind that? The inventory data shows EB4 at 1400 and EB5 at 200. Hence EB4 should give us atleast 4K and EB5 about 6K

'History repeats itself' is one of the basis for predicting game. EB4 had not provided any spill over for the past many years.

Further EB4 category was supposed to be abolished in 2009 and extended for few more years. I dont remember who extended it? congress or senate or dos or presidential order? Since 'end' is definitely set on for EB4 in next few years time frame, eligible candidates try to make it as soon as possible. Other wise, they have to join EB3 others category.

[natvyas]

If the available numbers are going to be use for primarily clearing the backlog then does this shed light on the USCIS policy for people beyond Aug 07

[veni001]

Credit to natvyas for the heads up.

The new USCIS Inventory for June 2011 is now available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Yipee!!

Spec, natvyas,

Great info
Thank you

[anuran]

Can someone hazard a guess as to why there is a reduction in July 2007 numbers in Jan'11 versus June'11 inventory data? Could the 72 cases have become CP cases from AOS? Can someone withdraw I-485? Thanks.

[gcwait2007]

Can someone hazard a guess as to why there is a reduction in July 2007 numbers in Jan'11 versus June'11 inventory data? Could the 72 cases have become CP cases from AOS? Can someone withdraw I-485? Thanks.

Yep, very much yes

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends here are my thoughts about the inventory. It does not change things a great deal.
- EB1 inventory is higher than previous ones however note that the 2011 numbers are lower in most months than late 2010. Also the early 2010 numbers are in similar range as early 2011 assuming early 2010 cases would have seen approvals looks like EB1 demand is really down. Also note that most of the EB1 demand is from ROW countries.
- EB2 ROW numbers are quite low from 2011 indicating either the demand itself is less or the cases are seeing speedy approvals. Cases from 2008 to mid 2009 maybe from countries of interest and they normally take longer.
- Here is an attempt to calculate PD porting using the EB3 – India inventory.
I researched the differences a little further to infer how much porting is happening.

EB3 - I total (Jun Inventory) = 57119
EB3- I total (Jan Inventory) = 58440
Nett Reduction = 1321

Now let us determine the component that should be regular approvals. Lets take 01-May-2002 as the benchmark date for this.

EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jun Inv) = 901
EB3 - I (1st May 2002 - Jan Inv) = 2052
Approvals due to regular cap in the time between the 2 inventories = 2052 - 901 = 1151.

Now if we assume that there has been no local office demand addition to the inventory then porting during this period is 1321 - 1151 = 170.

If we multiply this by 3 since the time span is 4 months its just 510. This would imply that district office cases are still being added to the inventory. We may also infer that PD porting is not that high after all.

[natvyas]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

[veni001]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

natvyas,
I would think so, ~14k spillover in the next three months should set EB2I&C dates t0 01MAY2007 by Sept VB.
If USCIS want to build some inventory, in the mean time, we could very well see some jerky movement.

[gcwait2007]

So is it safe to conclude that the June Inventory data has not changed the prior predictions and we are still in Feb to Mar 07 range ????

I have been reading Spec's threads, analyzing Trackitt data. I hope that his analysis is up-to-date.

EB1 would expect to reach 22K by year end (indicated from the data as of now) , which means there is spill over of 18K expected and out of 18K, 12K already provided in May and June 2011. So available for spill over would be 6K.

EB2 ROW would reach 28500 and expected spill over is 6K.

EB4 None

EB5 would provide about 6K visas, since as many as 2K people convert their conditional card to full fledged GC.

Total would be 18K and I would expect that the cut off date for EB2 India and China to get into April 2007.

[veni001]

I have been reading Spec's threads, analyzing Trackitt data. I hope that his analysis is up-to-date.

EB1 would expect to reach 22K by year end (indicated from the data as of now) , which means there is spill over of 18K expected and out of 18K, 12K already provided in May and June 2011. So available for spill over would be 6K.

EB2 ROW would reach 28500 and expected spill over is 6K.

EB4 None

EB5 would provide about 6K visas, since as many as 2K people convert their conditional card to full fledged GC.

Total would be 18K and I would expect that the cut off date for EB2 India and China to get into April 2007.

gcwait2007,
Removal of condition shouldn't count towards quota!

[gcwait2007]

gcwait2007,
Removal of condition shouldn't count towards quota!

OK, in that case, add 1K more

[leo07]

If it has to reach April 2007, DOS will move the dates to July 1st 2007. They don't want the remaining uncertainty hanging there. They have improved over the last couple of years, only because they have enough pre-adjudicated cases in the system. Not sure if they would want to go back to disco-dance again.

[kd2008]

One thing I haven't been able to reconcile is the large number of pending cases for EB2 ROW on trackitt since Oct 2010 and comparatively small number of cases in the USCIS pending inventory. What gives?

[arnab221]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

[veni001]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

arnab221,
Welcome, Your questions is what would be the PD movement in July 2011 VB? or When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current?

[arnab221]

Hello Veni ,

The question is , When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current , if VB reaches say Feb 2007 in Sept 2011 ?

[donvar]

Gurus ,
Have been following the excellent discussions for many months now and have a question .

Let us assume that for a moment that we reach a PD of Feb 2007 ( which is predicted as the worst case by Sept 2011) . How many more months will it take to move to July 2011 after that ?

Do we have to wait for 1 whole year for it to advance to July 2011 ? Can you please shed some light on the movement of the PD after Sept 2011 if the date on Sept 2011 VB is Feb 2007 ?

Thanks in advance for your reply .

Thanks,
AG

As a thumb rule add 4.5 years to your PD. ( This assuming that spillover is same in coming years). However I am no Guru.

[veni001]

Hello Veni ,

The question is , When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current , if VB reaches say Feb 2007 in Sept 2011 ?

arnab221,
Assuming not change in the status-quo, i would stick to the rule of 6 for EB2I PD post July 2007. (chance to apply i485 in 5 years, GC in 6th year from PD date)

[GC2011]

Guys,

Statistics can say what you want them to say. I will try an alternate approach to prediction, which is looking at environmental factors.

Even before the 2011 July bulletin, EB2-I dates have already moved by 5 months. Why did the govt. agency move the dates so early. What is the hurry ? Why didn't they wait till July bulletin ?

Was it that, they knew that the overall usage is low and they would had to move numbers heavily in July - Sept. bulletin. Instead of making a big move in July - Sept., they are trying to stagger it.

I don't have numbers to prove (I guess no one has), but I am pretty covinced that dates will move even more quickly in July-Sept bulletin with 80 -90 % probability of EB2 India date moving to June -July 2007.