Nice to see this forum unlike others where there is more noise than voice.
Nice to see this forum unlike others where there is more noise than voice.
Grnwtg - 16500 and 11500 PERMS were certified for India in FY 2008 and 2009 respectively. Even if you assume a 10% rejection rate at I-140 and 65% are EB2, that imples around 32,000 I-485s are pending for just those 2 years (including dependents). If you assume there are multiple perms included in the perm certification, we would still have about 25k 485s pending. Since there won't be much China backlog, any spillover similar to what we are seeing now we could clear that FY 2008 and 2009 in a year (optimistic assumptions here of course). But I don't think Dos would know any of the spillover trends till at least Q2 FY 2012, when they may move dates to end FY 2009. Don't think they would open then up now itself... Anyting is possible, but just my views. But the current situation is unprecedented in that the pipeline will be over soon and demand in FY 08 and FY 09 is definitely lower than prior years... so hope we can see positive news.
Tks Kanmani - but why do we calculate for CY when spillovers / priority dates are all based on FY.
If we look at the inventory for 2007 for India the EB2 Total is 9918 and EB3 Total is 4616. None of these points have ever been current after 2007. This gives the ratio as 68%. However Iam sure now that there is more clarity even fewer people are applying in EB3. The only reasons to file in EB3 are a) 6th Year extension, Eb3 approval is safer than EB2 b)Having a PD to port later c) Company policy to file in EB3 d) Only a 3 yr degree with no addendum. The ratio for EB2 - EB3 is easily 75-25 now and as many people have put it the total EB2 India / China backlog might well be 100K.
05/27/2011: House Bill Exempting from Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year
* We reported earlier that there was a bill introduced in the House a few days back entitled "Emergency Nursing Supply Relief Act" to relieve this country from nursing shortage. This bill provides that if Schedule A I-140 petition is "filed" before 09/30/2014, such professional nurses are exempted from employment-based immigrant visa numerical limitation upto 20,000 per year if such petition is approved. Additionally such nurses' "accompanying or following-to-join" family members (spouse and children) are also exempted from the numerical limit, no matter how many the numbers would be. Accordingly, the annual limit of this special 20,000 per year will count only principal beneficiary of Schedule A petition, nurses. It means that such qualified Scheduled A immigrant petition will produce a much larger than 20,000 who receive the benefits of exemption from the annual numerical limits regardless of immigrant visa cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin. This bill also provides recapture of unused 20,000 numerical limit exempted numbers in the following year.
* Good deal for the foreign nurses!
This is a news from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html
I think, this is a good news for us too as whoever are in EB2 queue for nurses category doesn't need visa assigned from this quota and those numbers might be used for rest. Also, this is an ongoing process for future visa allocation as well.
I did not know that nurses would qualify for EB categories. If they qualify is it possible to get any historical information as to how many nurses usually apply under EB1 and EB2. Is there a way to determine this? That will be an important fact to know... since those numbers will be straight away used by retrogessed EB2IC.
Example calculation:
If 20K nurses applied in EB1 and EB2. Then total GC numbers would be atleast 40K (assuming the dependent factor of 2). So if we get 40K every year, EB2IC should be current in next 1 or 2 years. Ofcourse if nurses qualify for EB3.. then EB2 IC wont get any numbers.
Q and others.. what do you think.. can you give your inputs on this please!
S
Originally Posted by nayekal
Last edited by skpanda; 05-27-2011 at 01:55 PM.
AFAIK nurses qualify for EB3 - Other Workers group, doctors would qualify for EB2. However as of now the news item only suggests that the bill has been introduced its still far from being passed. Recapture of wasted visa numbers can be very helpful this was the accelerant for Jul 2007 happening when 60K visas were recaptured and some of it was related to nurses.
Well then if this bill is passed.. then it will be relief for EB3 and may act as precedent for any future bill to remove dependents from numerical limitation in EB based categories.
Teddy,
I've been waiting for the text of this Bill (H.R.1929) to be published. I guess it was finally made available today. I haven't had a chance to read it yet.
My understanding is that nurses can qualify under EB3 as Aliens with at least two years of experience as skilled workers, but the base nursing qualification does not generally qualify under Professionals with a baccalaureate degree.
Since the end of special Schedule A visas and the H1C program, the problem for nurses with the base qualification is that they tend not qualify for H1B, unless they also have a BSc in Nursing.
Specialist nurses can take an MSc and qualify for EB2, but I think this is a relatively small number.
This has led to a very large number of nurses who want to come to the USA (which has a shortage), but can't. I think the biggest numbers are from the Philippines, possibly followed by India.
The NVC data shows 45k EB3 Philippines cases under Consular Processing. I would hazard a guess that a large proportion of these are nurses and physical therapists.
Although I am pessimistic about the Bill progressing, any introduction of the idea of exempting dependents from numerical limitations is a great step. If it could pass, even for one group, it would make it easier to pass for all of EB.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec Teddy and all ...
This is a very good piece of legislation and hope it gets passed. I think dependents making independent of quota would work wonders for backlogged immigration process including EB3. Albeit this particular one only will set a precedent rather than bring huge relief.
I must say guys the quality of discussion gets elevated when somebody brings things such as this to everybodys notice. Thanks for this.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Spec
great lateral analysis on the issue and thanks to nayekal for posting this. I do not wish to rain on the parade however but the chances of this legislation passing are slim to none. Congress is deadlocked on both the medicare, budget, deficit ceiling and other issues.
In this environment any party that even tries to do something about Legal Immigration ( leave aside the illegal immigration issue ) will have an big red target painted on its back. The startup visa bill which was heavily favoured by the pro business republican base could not even get through the second judiciary house committee.
I would not want people's hopes to get dashed.So it is better we set realistic expectations...Expect no bill to get passed untill early 2013.The strongest Latino campaigners for the Democratic party who represent a very lucrative vote bank themselves are saying Comprehensive Immigration reform is a dead fish in the water.
What to say of these bills...It will help a lot of people no doubt.But Nada Zilch chance of passing.
Sorry to be a killjoy on a friday....
@spec - As usual very thorough and comprehensive details from your side. You always set the standards.
@skpanda / q / gcseeker - The provisions of the bill are great and definitely need to be welcomed, any relief is good and setting a precedent like excluding dependents would be really good. Friends I checked the status of this bill - http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1929 most bills at the status referred to committee really go nowhere. I agree with gcseeker on that.
I know this is the EB2 Calculations thread, but I hope you will allow me the leeway to post something about EB3 effects IF this Bill were to pass.
Although there were some Schedule A visas given in FY2007, essentially the program ceased at the end of CY2006. In the last VB where visas were generally available in November 2006 the Cut Off Date retrogressed from C to 01OCT05.
EB3-ROW and EB3-P are rapidly approaching that date, standing at 15SEP05 for June 2011.
If Philippines demand ramps up from that date, we might expect their Cut Off Date to retrogress away from EB3-ROW during late 2005 or as we move through 2006 PDs next year. It will hit at the very latest when PDs reach 2007.
In turn, this almost certainly means that Philippines will use its full 7% allocation, most of which is allocated within EB3. Since they generally only use around 3k in all other EB categories, that would be 7k in EB3.
Since overuse by Mexico and Philippines within EB3 is compensated by reducing the EB3-ROW allocation, the EB3-ROW Cut Off date might not advance as rapidly. This in turns delays EB3-ROW becoming Current and Fall Across being allocated to EB3-I.
If the Bill were to pass and EB3-P does indeed contain large numbers of nurses, then the other EB3-P applicants would probably consume less than the overall 7% (since they can't pass the EB3-ROW Cut Off date), in turn accelerating EB3-ROW progress.
Of course, nurses come from all Countries, so it potentially stretches the visa allocations for everybody. If the 20k primary only extra visas per year last until the end of FY2014, then that could make significant movement possible.
So I think approval of the Bill would be tremendous news for everyone in EB3, even though it might not benefit everybody immediately.
Unfortunately, I don't think it will pass, but it still good to see Bills benefiting EB categories being submitted.
PS I can't remember if it has been discussed or not here, but the other interesting Bill that was introduced recently is :
H.R. 1796: Reuniting Families Act. http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-1796
Amongst other things, it proposes recapturing all wasted visas since 1992, allowing wasted visas in the previous year to be re-used and increases the per Country limit to 10%. In addition, for F2A, it reclassifies Spouses and Children of LPRs as Immediate Relatives, who are therefore exempt from numerical limitations.
Last edited by Spectator; 05-27-2011 at 05:28 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Credit to natvyas for the heads up.
The new USCIS Inventory for June 2011 is now available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf
Yipee!!
Last edited by Spectator; 05-27-2011 at 06:50 PM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Time for crunching numbers again guys. Let me know if you want some Glenlivet delivered to your doorstep
Can we hear first impressions from the experts?
EDIT: I am hitting F5 key every minute
Last edited by angryclubs; 05-27-2011 at 06:23 PM.
Yes, Can't wait to see what the experts thinkTime for crunching numbers again guys. Let me know if you want some Glenlivet delivered to your doorstep
Can we hear first impressions from the experts?
EDIT: I am hitting F5 key every minute
BTW, angryclubs, I never knew one could refresh a page by pressing F5 key, Duh... Well, I learnt one more thing from this awesome site today!
Last edited by Monica12; 05-27-2011 at 06:30 PM.
When I click on the link - it says -
404 - Requested Page Not Found on Site
The page you requested is not on our site.
Please look for related information on the USCIS Home Page.
Sorry for any inconvenience.
Try this:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf
Thanks...
I wonder why the document is not posted along with all previous inventories..
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Because its future dated. see carefully it says Jun 2011 at the top. May be its used for internal purpose and not supposed to be for general public yet.
Thanks Natvyas / Spec.
Its funny tehy call it Jun inventory when its only May. I don't know what to make of it.
But lets do some math.
EB2 approx has 17K through Dec 2006. Other than that EB2 ROW has 8K pending of which 1K is 2011, 4K is 2010, 2K 2009, 1.5K prior.
Since through Jun the date is moved to Oct 06. We only need to look at the inventory past that point for any post June SOFAD. The post June SOFAD will be in the range of
4-8K EB1 + 4-8K EB2ROW + 6-8K EB5 = 14-24K TOTAL incremental
This 14-24K will be applied to post OCT 2006 inventory. So at the low end that gives Apr 2007. At higher end it takes it post Jul 2007!!!
This is amazing. First of all it means that the dates have been moved to OCt 2006 not just based on 12K from EB1. May be its more than that. Secondly whatever that more is .... is either coming from EB1 itself (then its a bummer) or its is coming from ROW (which I am inclining towards).
The reason I think the latter is because look at ROW inventory which is 8K... and it includes 4K from 2010. It means one and only one thing they are not in a hurry to approve ROW. So the question is why?
And it only points me to one thing and don't take it to bank my friends ------ I think they want to move the dates all the way past Aug 2007 and make it current.
Guys ... I have just landed and opened my computer and penned it down. So don't bash me if I made some obvious mistakes. Please criticize and tear apart my logic! But I would be really glad if the dates do go post Aug 2007 for so many PWMBs will get to file.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I think this is where I would have a slightly different viewpoint.
The title of the document is Employment Based I-485 Pending Inventory as of June 2011.
Unhelpfully, USCIS didn't specify an exact date as before, but given it has been compiled now, I would take that to mean as of June 01, 2011, even if that is not entirely true.
Since the document isn't anywhere officially on the USCIS site that I can find (and I don't know how Natvyas managed to find it), I suspect it is due to be officially released early next week.
I don't think USCIS will be at the stage where they know all the cases they are going to approve in June itself, nor do I think they would try to predict them in this public document, so I favour it being the situation as of today (or June 01 to be precise), since it is possible they have requested those visas already, or they consider the number insignificant as far as the report goes.
In that case, you have to look at Inventory from July 2006 onwards for EB2-I and August 2006 onwards for EB2-C.
In that case, it probably doesn't alter the situation very much.
Finally, even if there is a mismatch between the USCIS Inventory and DOS Demand data (seen most evidently in EB3-ROW), then DOS would use their own figures to set the Cut Off Dates.
Hopefully, this can be clarified by the next Demand Data release, due within the next 2 weeks.
As a PS, natvyas mentioned that he couldn't post the news himself, as the forum said he was unauthorized to do so. It would be nice if we could resolve that problem, (whatever the cause), by way of a thank you.
Have a great weekend and holiday.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Q,
I will steal your phrase here... with a little twist..
'If this is true, aapke ke muh mein Haldirams Mithayi ka pura inventory!!'
My PD is Dec 2010 and if DOS makes the dates current it will help me take some important personal and professional decisions.
I had been a slacker/lazy in the past towards Green Card processing on couple of occassions, otherwise, my PD would have been in early 2007.
Good Luck to all of us..
S
Last edited by skpanda; 05-28-2011 at 06:38 AM.
Q/ Spec & Others,
Thanks for posting the Inventory data as of June 2011.
Few quick points noted by me:
1. The data does not include CP and includes Service centers and Field Offices only. It is just inventory data giving the number of cases pending with USCIS, whether qualified or not. It is a USCIS report. Monthly determination of demand data is prepared by DoS and based on which CO and his team prepares cut off dates.
2. Although title says June 2011, it should be taken as 06/01/2011 (1st day of June 2011)
3. I remember one of Q's posts, where he mentioned that 6K was the spillover allocated in June 2011, moving EB2 IC cut off dates to 15 Oct 2006. As per my calculation, it is 8K, from the data.
4. Number of porting cases and who missed PWMB is less than 200 from EB2 India (increase in number of applications) for the applicants between July 2006 and December 2006. This is a really a good news and I was anxious about the number of upgrades and PWMB. If their number were to overwhelm, then it would be difficult to move the cut off dates. Over all, upgrades and PWMB seems to be less than estimated or would not exceed the estimated number of 3000.
5. In the absence of of info such as how many visas issued so far, countries wise and how much is left over for issue from June 2011 to end of this fiscal year 2011, this report does not give me any understanding. It leads us back to our inconclusive predicting game. I would be better off if I can do this kind of predicting game in Las Vegas casino. (Atlantis is also OK, NC is average, Detroit is not good).
6. Based on data provided Spec-o-rama and others, I would continue to hope that there will be further spill over of about 4K to 6K in EB1, 5.5K from EB2 ROW and another 5.8K from EB5. Total spillover available would be in the range of 14K to 18K. EB2 india and china would move to March-April 2007.
Last edited by gcwait2007; 05-28-2011 at 08:57 AM.
Q,
It is a holiday weekend and I don't have much available time to do a proper analysis.
When an Inventory comes out, rather than looking forward from those figures, I prefer to try to calculate what the revised October 1 situation would have to have been, then apply the whole predicted SOFAD to that figure.
A very simplistic calculation for EB2-I.
June Inventory total - 22,536
Approved to date (estimate) - 4,770
Derived October starting figure - 27,306
Actual October starting figure - 24,254 (from Old Inventory)
Underlying change - An addition of 3,052 cases between October 1 and the end of May.
I actually make a more complicated calculation, but that gives an idea.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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