Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....
Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....
once they hit 2007 (july) they have to slowdown to build i485 pipeline
Last edited by bieber; 05-26-2011 at 02:39 PM.
Spec,
any idea howmany EB2 I 485s will be in 2008? and 2009? based on perm numbers.
Beiber, I like your perspective
Maybe it will hit June-July 2007 before they decide to slow things down (who knows how they really think anyways? )
This wait is excruciating but I'm keeping my hopes up!!!
My take on it is...Originally Posted by Monica12
Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....
DOS/USCIS may want to advance dates in a controlled mannen (1 month at a time).. untill they get a healthy pipeline of about 40K+ (for next spill over season).
Below is an Example: Assuming a Spill over + regular quota of 30K in 2012 for EB2IC... they will be left with a pipeline of 20k+ in Oct 2012. Then they may follow the same pattern.
Sep 2011 - PD Mar 2007
Oct 2011 - PD May 2007 (about 4K applications)
Nov 2011 - PD July 2007 (about 4K applications)
Dec 2011 - PD Sep 2007 (about 4K applications)
Jan 2012 - PD Nov 2007 (about 4K applications)
Feb 2012 - PD Jan 2008 (about 4K applications)
Mar 2012 - PD Mar 2008 (about 4K applications)
Apr 2012 - PD May 2008 (about 4K applications)
May 2012 - PD July 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jun 2012 - PD Sept 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jul 2012 - PD Nov 2008 (about 4K applications)
Aug 2012 - PD Jan 2009 (about 4K applications)
Sep 2012 - PD Mar 2009 (about 4K applications)
Oct 2012 - PD June 2008 --- Retrogess
Interesting approach, but why wouldnt they not do it one shot and retrogress which gives them time to preadjucate the cases rather than moving month by month and putting extra pressure continously?
Skpanada, It would be great if they did it this way but I don't believe it has happened like this in a long time.
If they are systematic as you suggest, atleast we won't get sleepless nites. This whole process of stalling, retrogressing and sometimes jumping is quite crazy imo.
vishnu,
We have discussed this extensively. We can not rely on salary to distinguish between Eb2/Eb3. DOL started publishing PW wage request data, which could provide some what better picture Please check previous posts from Spec
The problem with bulk movement is that if porting numbers rise or if EB1/EB5/EB2ROW pick up, it would build up huge inventory numbers.The workload on USCIS plate may become unmanageable and lead to wastage of visas.
The phased approach allows the DOS to remain flexible with the PD movements.
Biber,
Please check the PERM Data Matrix, our estimate is for EB2I is 70% and 80% respectively for 2008 & 2009.
Kanmani,
As of 2011Q2 PERM data release EB2I got about 23,000 PERM approvals with PD2008 and another 16,000 PERM approvals with PD2009.
If we take an average of 70-30 (EB2-EB3) ratio and 1.2 dependent factor could means 60,000 i-485 for 2008&2009 just for India!
If they do it in a single shot.. they will have to handle a huge volume of applications in a single month. USCIS always complains about have thin staff blah blah. So I am confident that they will advance the dates in a controller manner. Not necessarily in the same way that i mentioned.
I just came across this post in trackitt; not sure how reliable it is and what what one can deduce from the same. The post is below:
================================================== ================================================== =====================
My company lawyer (A top notch law firm in east coast) says EB2-I PD could move as far as Q1 2008 by sep 2011. He said he got this information from his govt. liaison. I have strong reason to believe my company lawyer because he really has good contacts in the govt. My personal experience: USCIS screwed up the PD on my I-140 (I-140 approval notice had wrong PD). My company lawyer worked with govt. liaison and got it fixed in one week. That was amazingly fast knowing how efficient USCIS is.
The lawyer said EB2-I PD would move to Q1 2008, but, what exact month/date in Q1 depends on how many I-485 applications will be approved in the upcoming months.
This makes sense because even NVC has started sending out letters asking to pay fees for CP applicants with PD up to March 2008.
I just hope all of us waiting to file I-485 will get a chance this year.
================================================== ================================================== =====================
The reason I don't think it will happen in a progressive way, as above, is that DOS have to nominally stick to the law.
When we reach October, there are only about 3k visas initially available to each of EB2 I&C.
Further, DOS are not allowed to issue more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first 3 quarters.
The Cut Off Date represents the date of the first applicant who cannot be issued a visa.
DOS are going to have to bend the law a bit to build the pipeline, but I don't think they will break it in such a flagrant manner, although I accept anything is possible since it is uncharted territory.
They do, however, have to allow enough time for USCIS to process new filings to completion, so that it turns into Demand.
So, as has been discussed previously, they might make a large forward movement in April/May VB (if they don't do it in September) to allow new applications to be filed, followed by retrogressing until spillover season when there are enough visas available to actually approve them.
The advantage of this approach is that DOS have several months to gauge demand in the contributors to spillover.
The disadvantage (and it is a huge one) is that it relies on USCIS processing the cases in a timely manner. The USCIS stated goal is 4 months, so it really isn't a DOS problem if USCIS cannot or won't meet those targets.
By the time that becomes apparent, it will be too late to generate new demand within EB2. DOS can either take account of that by building a bigger buffer (possibly even earlier), or accept that if USCIS can't process the cases, they can always allocate unused visas to EB3 by advancing their Cut Off Dates later in the year. Those cases are generally pre-adjudicated, so they could easily take up the slack due to USCIS inefficiency and EB3 has more CP cases which DOS can handle themselves.
I think that covers most of the bases.
I am not saying that is what will happen, but they are all viable options.
I could be wrong, but that is how I would do it.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Kanmani,
Search for the posts where Prevailing Wage Data was analyzed by minimum educational and experience requirements. That is a much better indicator than salary, since there are high paid EB3s and low paid EB2s depending in what sector they work in.
Whilst the figures might be skewed slightly on the high side, it has shown a consistent 70:30 overall split of EB2:EB3 for all Countries since the data was made available (in 2010 I believe).
We would expect the split for India to be even more biased towards EB2.
Earlier years may be lower figures, since porting has probably increased the EB2 %, but I doubt EB2-I has dipped below 60:40, given the retrogression in EB3-I and is almost certainly higher than that in recent years. The Trackitt figures back this up.
With Q's permission, I will post it in the FACTS & DATA section when I have time. Edit: DONE.
Last edited by Spectator; 05-27-2011 at 09:21 AM.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec nobody needs nobody's permission my friend. Post what you find valuable!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
pch053,
Let's hope so.
Kanmani,
Things changed post 2005, I don't think very many people with 3yr degrees are coming to US these days.
It would not be fun to get into EB2-EB2 porting discussions, again. This is the sole reason that at least i have stopped viewing Trackitt where the only thing one could find were EB2-EB3 porting flame wars. People who port from EB3 to EB2 follow a legal process and get approved only when their case is valid. Each and every case that gets through the process is as valid as the next one. As far as how many people are porting, sudden increase in porting numbers(imagine any crazy number) is not possible since the job market is pretty much dead, as has been the case for past 3 years. In such a scenario, even to maintain your current job on visa is big deal, and impossible to find a new good company who will spend $20k on your H1, and GC. Besides that, anyone before August 2007 anyway has EAD and can switch employer using AC21. As a result they are in no real hurry to port.
ssvp22,
Valid points to note.
Q,
I know you don't mind, but it is always polite to ask.
Besides, you are GURU now!
How do I address you?
PS I'm glad I have done it, considering how long it took me to track down the original postings!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
LoL
I brought the Guru threshold to 300. So I am not the only Guru around!
Q,
I know you don't mind, but it is always polite to ask.
Besides, you are GURU now!
How do I address you?
PS I'm glad I have done it, considering how long it took me to track down the original postings!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
If this turns out to be true.. unfortunately it will not help people like me who have PD in 2010... but then I cannot complain... people had to wait for atleast 2/3 yrs.
Good luck to all of you!!
S
Kanmani,
I agree that multiple PERMs skew our estimates, but based on i140 trending and recent USCIS comments confirming that porting is not really as high as estimated, i believe our estimates are not too far from the reality!
Has anyone else here (or friends) with priority date in 2008 eb2 got any letter from NVC asking to pay fee details? . Looks like they might have more than 6k of eb1 number ( as 12k came out of 2nd quarter), dates might easily go to may or june 2007. But main question is how will they prepare for next year?, i think there will be fewer people with priority date between july 2007 and december 2007. Main reason of spike in jan to june 2007 applications is because of news that substitute labors are going to stop in june'2007. Out of my friends who got gc around 30-40 people, most of them came to united states only in 2005-2007 and 90% of them got subsitute labors, to my knowledge number of application should decrease after july 2007.
Anyway i am being very optimistic so that my dates will be current for atleast EAD, i am not even thinking of GC right now.
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