EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Kanmani]

First time poster. Feel free to correct me if I make any noob mistakes.

I can vouch for what Spec said from personal experience. My H1B - Post 6 yr extension was pending since Oct 11 thru Jan 12 when I had to visit India for a family emergency. The Feb bulletin (issued in Jan 12) made my PD (10/2009) current (starting Feb 1). I got my visa extension stamped based on the extended H1B and got a full 3 years.

Hope that helps.

Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I agree.

In the document, I also said


and I have mentioned that scenario several times.

The only law about allocation is for the Quarterly limit, so allocating more in a month within the quarter is very likely. Figures for EB3 in previous years shows this does appear to happen.

Frankly, I think the quarterly limit for Q2 might be a bit tight. As long as he successfully negotiates that, a new quarter's allocation becomes available.

Although it is the law, I am not convinced CO has ever seen 27% as a hard, hard limit, since he can "anticipate" returns of visas from Consulates. If those happen to be "less" than he used in his calculations, then he has exceeded the Quarterly limit. Only the Year End limit is a hard cap in reality IMO.

I am more and more convinced that CO knows exactly where he wants to stop the forward movement in Cut Off Dates and that he will do that regardless. In that respect, I have stopped trying to guess.

I think the more interesting question is how much SOFAD there will be this year. Really, leaving aside the EAD/AP issue, that is the only important number, other than the more cases there are, the longer it will be before rapid forward movement is possible again.

As both Q and yourself have said, the forward movement is completely independent of the number of visas available this year.

People should enjoy it while it lasts, but it will end eventually.

Thanks Spec for your detailed explanation. Completely agree with you. I believe that we can expect significantly higher SOFAD this year if the approvals have been less than or equal to the quarterly approval limits. Let’s hope that forward movement continues even though it might be for the next year because having EAD / AP really helps.

[mesan123]

Another Jan filer( 7-OCT-2008) got greened......Jan fillers 5 of them in trackitt got approved today......

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...hering/page/86

[bookworm]

Spec was very clear in this context, hence he printed the word ' filed' in bold. So it is the filing date that counts.
If you are not current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 3 yrs extension.
If you are current on the day uscis receives the application , then you get 1 year extension.
Bookworm, do you think any of the above statements doesn't fit in your case?

In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

[Kanmani]

In my case the original extension was filed in Oct 11 but then they moved it to premium processing in Jan as I was in India and needed to get back. I don't know if the initial and premium count as separate filings or just as an upgrade. The original was filed in Oct 11 and the premium was filed after Jan 10th 2012.

Just wanted to add that I respect the insight that all the gurus bring to the convoluted area of immigration and my intent in posting was to provide anecdotal evidence to support Spec's excellent post.

Sorry for hijacking the thread.

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

[nishant2200]

Teddy, I am also convinced now. Thanks for the explanation, both you and vizcard.

CO is an expert in impedance matching and he must have good circuit breakers to prevent blowouts

Thanks Vizcard for pointing, I read through Spec's post and he has the circuit breaker scenario also documented by quarterly limits. Now since this will be a new quarter I think they can have a open heart about forward movement.

"Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.".

Spec thanks your description sounds perfect.

[suninphx]

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

[bookworm]

bookworm,
This 3 yr, 1 yr extensions are general rule, but we don't know how many adjudicators are following their manual. You are lucky to get an extension approved while u were away from the country( if I understand correct)

I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

[tackle]

Tackle, I have been following your posts... I think your avatar is very fitting. It's extremely frustrating when you have no idea what's going on with your application.... Please hang in there...

Thanks man. Appreciate it. And, wish you all the best with your RFE review. Hope we get good news soon.

[srimurthy]

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.

I was lucky. I got the I-797 in 2 days after they filed for premium processing and got the visa stamped after answering 2 questions (name of employer & job title). My frame of mind at that point in time was "to hell with immigration issues - there's more important things in life". But now I am back into the GC hunting mode!

[Kanmani]

Even if he is out of country H1 extension processing should continue isn't it? Assuming stamping went smoothly for him....I would say thats lucky.

Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

[suninphx]

Sun . You are correct , extensions remain valid unlike a change of status application which may be considered abondoned. thanks

Only thing is bookworm may have got I94 attached with I797 which is kinda useless now.

[bookworm]

Love the attitude you had.
Meanwhile looks like they were just waiting for you to file the Premium so they can pocked a few extra bucks.

Again as luck would have it - my company picked up the tab for that expense. The whole immigration system feels like a scam to gouge people who can not vote and affect politicians.

End of Rant. Back to regular programming (aka What will CO do?)

[makmohan]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

[suninphx]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.

[mrdeeds]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

[srividya]

Just speculation, VO may move another 2 months for April.
reason: March projection was movement of 6 months but it was moved by 4 months only

[vizcard]

Hey Friends,

My H1B expires in late Fall and a time soon will come to file for my 2nd 3-year extension.

My PD is 30-Apr-08. I got current recently and filed for my 485 in first week of Feb.

I keep reading advantages of keeping H1 status. Looking at the cost of H1 extension I am not sure whether my company will agree especially if I have EAD.

No issues if I receive my GC during this summer's SOFAD (not sure what are the chances) but any suggestions on whether it is worth to go for H1 extension in case my approval gets postponed to next summer (during 2013 summer SOFAD season)?

Makmohan

IMO - There is a high chance that you will get your GC in this FY. Also if DOS/USCIS coninue to do what they did this FY, there will be quarterly spillovers(monthly in fact) next FY too.

Makmohan,

1) Most likely you will get your GC in this FY spillover. You will get a better idea over the next couple of months.
2) If you plan to stay in your job and job is safe and looks like it will stay that way and if the company is not willing to do H1B, EAD is fine. In case you are the real cautious one who worries about backup plan for a backup plan, go for the H1B.

Im in the exact same boat. 8/20/08 PD and H1B expiring on 11/30/12. Im pretty certain, I'll be greened by 11/30. I'm planning on making a game time decision. Even if I don't get greened by then I will most likely stay with EAD.

[mrdeeds]

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

[vizcard]

The day is setting here on the east coast and no bulletin yet today. ಠ_ಠ

DD came out today, VB will come out tomorrow.

[tatikonda]

Hi,

Here is link for Mumbai US Consulate : web page where cutoff dates will be posted.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[mrdeeds]

DD came out today, VB will come out tomorrow.

Don't they come out on the same day sometimes?

[skpanda]

in recent times yes...but we never know.. in old days there used to be 1 day gap.

Don't they come out on the same day sometimes?

[mrdeeds]

in recent times yes...but we never know.. in old days there used to be 1 day gap.

skpanda, put on your magic hat again and dig out that PDF from somewhere again...please. :-)

[skpanda]

Ah.. u remember.... last time.. i was just lucky to stumble upon it... (i did not intend to).

Today i have been trying to refresh since morning.. no luck....

as they say it... when u need it... it wont come 2 u....

Good luck to all. I hope and pray that there is atleast 2 months movement (some of my friends badly need that).

skpanda, put on your magic hat again and dig out that PDF from somewhere again...please. :-)