Veni
I agree w you otherwise. However as per spillover to EB3, I think the chances are absolutely ZERO that any visas will spill into EB3 from EB2.
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni
I agree w you otherwise. However as per spillover to EB3, I think the chances are absolutely ZERO that any visas will spill into EB3 from EB2.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
200,000 review is really great accomplishment!. Also this happened in relatively short span(less than 7 months!).
Q,
Thanks for hosting such an informative immigration forum. I have been more of a listener but have greatly educated myself with immigration related matters through this forum. I feel quite a few of the users have provided better feedback and realistic estimates for EB2-I PD movement than many immigration lawyers. Last, but never least, this is one of the forums (if not the only forum) where I have seen friendly and respectful conversations, even when people have disagreed on different topics. I have almost stopped participating in discussion threads in trackitt (other than answering questions for which I clearly know the answer) as it inevitably boils down to a war of words between EB2 vs EB3 or India vs ROW or whatever.
Wishing the very best to all the users and to everyone going through the GC journey!
I second your thoughts.
Thanks to folks who have made this forum a very informative tool. This is probably the only forum that I have not found a single abusive post. All the posts have been very constructive. There have been difference of opinion at times.. but it was dealt in a very respectful manner.
Kudos to everybody..special thanks to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy and others... who have contributed to this forum.
Great site and wonderful people here. Thanks to Q, Teddy Koochu, Veni, Spec. and all others who are sharing their knowledge with all of us. This is my first post here though I visit this site many times a day. Congratulations to the moderators, administrator(s) and all others.
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.
Note: You will need to have your I140 Receipt Number to check.
Only those cases for which CP option was given at the time of 485 will the details be available for the rest of us it will say that no record is available. I just verified the same I remember my attorney was a fan of I485 v/s CP but its good to call and verify.
In 2008 (Q4), they seem to have advanced dates by 2 years before retrogressing in 2009 fiscal. Why would they have done this? It's not like they didnt have the inventory already...
This usually happens to clear the CP cases by DOS...
I agree. It might also be that they want to clear the CP cases with 2008 PD in the next few months. That might very well be the reason that NVC cases with late 2007 or early 2008 PDs are getting emails for paying the application fee. One difference with 2008 though is at that time the I485 pending inventory was not public (if I remember correctly), even though USCIS might have known internally the pending demands, etc. Look forward to comments from others!
vishnu,
Actually, I don't think USCIS did have an Inventory at that time, so DOS were essentially in the dark about potential cases from USCIS.
The first published USCIS Inventory didn't appear until August 2009.
One theory suggests that the events of 2008 (and later in 2009) were the final straw for DOS, who then insisted that USCIS compile a proper Inventory by Preference, Chargeability and PD.
Since the first Inventory was made available, EB2-I has never retrogressed, nor have we seen startling advances, inconsistent with the known numbers.
I don't think that is a coincidence.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec - that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the color...
The only difference now is that even the visibile USCIS inventory will likely be depleted at some point in this Q4 spill over (at least very good chance of this happening). So how DOS proceeds from there remains to be seen.
By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?
If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..
Yes.. it would be very interesting to see how DOS advances dates... since there is no precedent/situation like this in the past.
They may choose to follow the same approach that they took for FB (family) last year. Advance it by 1 or 2 years and then retrogess.
I am hoping instead of picking a random date, they make it current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess. This will help many people including me to file EAD/AP.
Advantage for DOS/USCIS is that they will have enough demand visibility that they can work on for the next 3 or 4 years atleast. In addition they can get all the fees for 485/EAD/AP/EAD Renewels in advance.
S
I think the same issue of approving I485 without strictly going by PDs has happened in the past when the PDs moved by a couple of years. In Aug - Sep'08, I have seen EB2-I cases with 2006 PD getting approved whereas there were still many pending cases from 2004. It will be ideal, if USCIS opens the floodgates (i.e. advances the PDs by few years or makes it current) but still approve I485s based on the PDs. This will enable everyone to apply for EAD/AP and it will also be fair as people will be getting their GCs roughly based on the order in which it was submitted.
Because of the same reason everybdy was current in 2007... CIS not providing up to date information to DOS...instead of wasting the numbers, they progress it to clear the CP's as well as get demand information... as spec mentioned it didnt happen after that as CIS was providing the needed info...
Did anyone give this a thought?
EB5 Spills up to EB1 and the 12K we are receiving now is a sum of available EB1 SO and projected EB5 spill-up (~8k) during last quarter?
So effectively the SO from EB1 could actually be only 4k? and there won't be any Spill-Up from EB5 in the last quarter?
Last edited by GlimmerOfHope; 05-25-2011 at 02:57 PM.
.
As you are mentioning here if they open PDs and flood gates same situation will arise like you saying in your statement itself down the line 3 months there may be case pending for 2004/05 but some case from 07/08 can be approved. :-(
you answered it yourself... EB5 --> EB1 happens in beginning of 4 qtr...but the 12K is from EB1 itself as per CO (charles Opexxxx, i dont know the correct last name)... 12K is left over in EB1 after 2 qtr's and no talk on EB5 so it has to wait till 4 qtr... relax and enjoy the ride on the high tide....
Last edited by soggadu; 05-25-2011 at 03:08 PM.
I do not know if someone shared this before but you will be interested in this reply from Ron. Someone asked about processing time with TSC. I found it interesting.
Re: Processing time for I-485 in TSC goes up
I have never taken those processing times very seriously because they bear almost no relationship to reality. Statistically, about 89 per cent of all EB green card applications go the AOS route. Assuming that we have about 148,000 EB numbers available, this means that the USCIS share is close to 132,000 EB adjustments, with the rest being handled by the Department of State. Even though the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, but itself processes about 120,000 VERY DIFFICULT green card applications each year, the USCIS rarely exceeds 110,000 AOS approvals.
Using these numbers as an example, if it appears that the USCIS will only process about 110,000 AOS cases, the State Department knows that they need to make up the difference (in this case, 22,000 EB cases) through overseas consular processing. Since they can't get the USCIS to speed up, and they are pretty much current with their own processing, the only way to avoid wasting visas is to make another 22,000 applicants eligible to receive visas before September 30th. The only way to do this is to temporarily advance cutoff dates to make 22,000 more people eligible. Once they have done this, and issued enough visas to exhaust the quota, then then have to roll back the cutoff dates to where they should be.
For this reason, every summer we see a temporary artificial advance in cutoff dates, followed by a retrogression in October.
Friends there are several news reports to suggest that EB5 is being marketed very aggressively. They have added premium processing for this category as well. So to have spillover from EB5 earlier than the last quarter looks highly unlikely. I believe that the 8K that we are expecting from EB5 may well be divided between the last quarter bulletins.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 05-25-2011 at 03:26 PM.
Are you sure the Premium processing is already added?
They proposed this on 19th May. I think they are seeking comments by 17th June 2011. Even if they favor this option, i think it will take few months to implement this.
Link to USCIS proposal:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...al-18May11.pdf
This has been discussed numerous time before. Initially all of us feared if this is the case. But after lots of number crunching people are comfortable that EB5 is not factored in those 12K. Additionally people think that probably there is another 4K in EB1 that might come down to EB2.
I agree Teddy. But EB5 doesn't have much of a pipeline and howsoever one markets the fact is that this 0.5 million investment in a not-so-financially-attractive area is not a great value proposition to somebody who already has 0.5M investable money. As a result we should see at least 5-6K SOFAD from EB5.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Thanks for the correction, looks like they are asking for comments. Looks like that no changes will happen by late Aug so we should get all the SOFAD from EB5. Lets hope for the best.
Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed. With regards EB1 by inventory difference only 9 out of the 12K has been allocated and then in the coming months also since there are no fundamental changes we can expect more.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 05-25-2011 at 04:24 PM.
As you say they are actively working to expedite EB5s by softening and bending rules. So assuming they are able to give GCs and clear whatever pipeline they have ... (which I believe is not more than 2K) then subtracting that 2K from the 8K SOFAD last year gives you 6K. But I guess that's as far worse as it can get.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
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