EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[manzoorraza]

Congrats Jan2008.

All my dear peeps,

I wanted to share the news of us getting greened!!

wohoo!!

PD: Jan 6th, 2008
485 Approval: Feb 28th

Thank you all on this forum and hope everyone gets greened soon. God is great!

[mysati]

Here is what Ron Gotcher had to say about the "low hanging fruit" theory.

I went through our records today, to see what results we have gotten. First, I found that most of the AOS approvals we received were for EB3 to EB2 upgrade cases where the applicant had an I-485 on file and pending since 2007. These were largely all pre-adjudicated cases. We have had a few new filings that have been approved, but they appear to be anomalies. That is, they were filed after other new filings (in some cases months later), but have been approved nonetheless. This is not at all an unusual phenomenon with the USCIS. The USCIS Ombudsman criticized the USCIS in one of the annual reports for "picking the low hanging fruit." That is, they would pull out what they considered to be very easy cases and approve those, rather than taking more complex cases that were filed earlier.

Hope this clears some air.

Sorry to sound rude here, that is not my intention. But he is saying that most of the approved cases are related to porting which I strongly feel is not true based on the profile of the people from this forum who are getting approved and the other people that I know of.

We all know that he strongly advocates porting and is trying to make a case for it here. That's what I feel. Feel free to disagree...

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to sound rude here, that is not my intention. But he is saying that most of the approved cases are related to porting which I strongly feel is not true based on the profile of the people from this forum who are getting approved and the other people that I know of.

We all know that he strongly advocates porting and is trying to make a case for it here. That's what I feel. Feel free to disagree...

I don't disagree with you. In fact, if you look at the beginning of the paragraph, I also feel that Ron is trying to make a case for porting which he always does. Looking at the trend, the scenario seems to be different than what Ron suggests. However, I just posted a comment to show what he had to say about "low hanging fruit theory" and which he has mentioned in the later part of the paragraph.

[nishant2200]

I don't disagree with you. In fact, if you look at the beginning of the paragraph, I also feel that Ron is trying to make a case for porting which he always does. Looking at the trend, the scenario seems to be different than what Ron suggests. However, I just posted a comment to show what he had to say about "low hanging fruit theory" and which he has mentioned in the later part of the paragraph.

Sure, one thing to note is whenever an OP quotes some other person's comment like Ron, most of the times, he is inviting thoughts from people on this forum on that comment, it may not necessarily mean the OP is trying to propogate support of that comment

now my thoughts on this. I think it's wrong of Ron to even call the porting of EB3 to EB2 for cases which have I-485 filed during the July 2007 fiasco a low hanging fruit. They are just a special case, and absolutely they can be and are approved faster, USCIS is ethically obliged to do it, there is no reason to hold them up. The main reason is the I-485 is already sitting pre-adjudicated, all it needs is the new I-140 approval of the EB2 job, the new EVL, and a written request to consider the former I-485 for the new job, these are the main things needed.

[Spectator]

You can find it here

As we already knew, it was a low production quarter.

Certified -- 9,531
Denied ---- 1,374
Withdrawn -- 547

Total ----11,352


I have updated the various posts in FACTS & DATA to reflect the new figures.

[kd2008]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

[cm9201]

I have few friends whose dependents EAD/AP approved and primary no update including me though filed together perhaps sent in same package. Any clue how USCIS processing.

[tatikonda]

You can find it here

As we already knew, it was a low production quarter.

Certified -- 9,531
Denied ---- 1,374
Withdrawn -- 547

Total ----11,352


I have updated the various posts in FACTS & DATA to reflect the new figures.

Spec,

I looked at the report. It did reported pending cases.
there might be several hundreds pending cases ??

Thank u.

[tatikonda]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

KD,

Yes I agree with most of your post, that's great observation by comparing last 3 FY years PERM.
But your last line.

Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

. If spillover rules remains unchanged. SOFAD is 100 %.

[kolugc]

I see another Jan filer with PD in June 2008 approved GC

http://www.trackitt.com/member/pats2012

Service Center: Texas
Priority Date: 10 Jun 2008

[qesehmk]

KD excellent observation. I agree.

Thanks to Spec too!!

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.

Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

[suninphx]

I see another Jan filer with PD in June 2008 approved GC

http://www.trackitt.com/member/pats2012

Service Center: Texas
Priority Date: 10 Jun 2008

Keep them coming....

[Sunnyznj]

some one may have thought about this already but posting it again for my own clarification ....

Does anyone have an approximate idea of how many 221G refusals were issued since 2009? I am thinking may be that is another way to determine so called DD. I am thinking most of the 221G refusals result in a fresh H-1B and a new labor in which case can we assume that the total number of refusals translate to part of the DD? on the contrary is it safe to say that it is not true DD as they try to port their old PD?

[Prabhas]

Sunny,

Its not just the H1 refusals, you may also want to look into L1 refusals as well , as they are eligible to apply for GC. On an average it was rounded to 40-50% of 221G/denials since 2008 to 2010 evident from the report by NFAP that I posted earlier.

[Sunnyznj]

Sunny,

Its not just the H1 refusals, you may also want to look into L1 refusals as well , as they are eligible to apply for GC. On an average it was rounded to 40-50% of 221G/denials since 2008 to 2010 evident from the report by NFAP that I posted earlier.

Thanks. 40-50% denials seems a lot but i guess DOS is really upping its game in denials. I hope they release inventory data more frequently...

[manzoorraza]

Sunny/Prabhas,
Although there have been a lot of queries but still 40-50% does seem very high........and scary. I am personally a subject of one (a pretty nasty one at that) and this percentage is very unnerving. Just waiting for my EAD before I respond to it just in case things go south with the H1.

I have heard that the approval rate has improved a tad recently after some noise was made and there was also talk of the RFE rate being high to quickly go through the backlog and make the processing numbers look better. Another theory doing the rounds is the higher RFE's are being handed out as a justification to additional resources for fraud prevention or vice-versa (depending on who you ask) - All this may add up to a high query/rejection rate. Either way, slowly and steadily, they are catching up with the games being played by the body shops...........the real scary thing is they are opening up cases from the past where there is suspect behavior on part of the employer. Recently heard from one of my colleagues that his company's financials are being investigated and that has been the cause of no one from his company getting an approval on 485 although their priority dates are way in the past. Their attorney/employer is not sure if they will investigate cases where the greencards have already been issued or if they would let bygones be bygones. Am sure this would scare some but offlate things are starting to get more difficult with H1s. Even the site visits have increased a lot; we have had 2 at our client site (one of the largest investment banks) within my group.

Thanks. 40-50% denials seems a lot but i guess DOS is really upping its game in denials. I hope they release inventory data more frequently...

[shaumack]

Thank you Spec.

I noticed this for ROW-M-P:

More than PD, the approval date matters, esp, in case of EB2 cases as upon PERM approval they can file concurrently and end up getting reflected in USCIS inventory.Here are approvals by FY:

FY 2010: 37173
FY 2011: 18926
FY 2012 Q1: 3805

Basically, if EB1 usage does not change then a slightly higher SOFAD for Eb2IC may happen. Again just a possibility but not a definitive.

I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now. This is from the FAQ on I-485 Inventory.

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485

It is not clear what does above statement infer. Does it mean Inventory does not include those "whose I-140 is pending but has not filed I-485" or "regardless all whose I-140 is pending are not counted"? Obviously former is contradicting and very intuitive. If individual's I-140 is pending and if he is not eligible or chose not to file concurrently, we do not expect them to be in I-485 Inventory.Why to make such statement. Anyways just wanted to throw this information out and see if it makes sense. In meantime let me see if I can find that reference.

[Kanmani]

It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing.

This refers to non-concurrent I-485 filers.

I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now..

Yes , You are correct , I too remember reading the same. My guess is ombudsman report to congress.

[Spectator]

I believe those who will file concurrently are not counted into I-485 Inventory unless I-140 is approved. I remember reading it somewhere but could not find the reference now. This is from the FAQ on I-485 Inventory.



It is not clear what does above statement infer. Does it mean Inventory does not include those "whose I-140 is pending but has not filed I-485" or "regardless all whose I-140 is pending are not counted"? Obviously former is contradicting and very intuitive. If individual's I-140 is pending and if he is not eligible or chose not to file concurrently, we do not expect them to be in I-485 Inventory.Why to make such statement. Anyways just wanted to throw this information out and see if it makes sense. In meantime let me see if I can find that reference.

The reference is from the cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf document, where USCIS responded to the comments in the Ombudsman's Report.

I have quoted the relevant portion below.

To clarify this point, the pending inventory report contains all principal and dependent employment-based green card applications pending at the Nebraska Service Center (NSC) and the Texas Service Center (TSC).

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.

This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

[shaumack]

The reference is from the cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf document, where USCIS responded to the comments in the Ombudsman's Report.

I have quoted the relevant portion below.

That is it!!!! Thanks Spec & Kanmani. I will make sure that I bookmark it this time.

[kd2008]

Thank you all for correcting me. I learn something new everyday here.

[Osaka001]

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.

Sunny/Prabhas,
Although there have been a lot of queries but still 40-50% does seem very high........and scary. I am personally a subject of one (a pretty nasty one at that) and this percentage is very unnerving. Just waiting for my EAD before I respond to it just in case things go south with the H1.

I have heard that the approval rate has improved a tad recently after some noise was made and there was also talk of the RFE rate being high to quickly go through the backlog and make the processing numbers look better. Another theory doing the rounds is the higher RFE's are being handed out as a justification to additional resources for fraud prevention or vice-versa (depending on who you ask) - All this may add up to a high query/rejection rate. Either way, slowly and steadily, they are catching up with the games being played by the body shops...........the real scary thing is they are opening up cases from the past where there is suspect behavior on part of the employer. Recently heard from one of my colleagues that his company's financials are being investigated and that has been the cause of no one from his company getting an approval on 485 although their priority dates are way in the past. Their attorney/employer is not sure if they will investigate cases where the greencards have already been issued or if they would let bygones be bygones. Am sure this would scare some but offlate things are starting to get more difficult with H1s. Even the site visits have increased a lot; we have had 2 at our client site (one of the largest investment banks) within my group.

[Spectator]

Here is trackitt numbers update,

PD Range ----- #Months-----# Applications
Aug'07-Mar'08-----8--------1141
Apr'08-Dec'09----- 21-------1075

Country: India, Chargeabilit:India and Cat:Eb2

The number of filings are very low from Apr'08, Am I missing anything?, or people are taking more time to file I-485s.

It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here. Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.

[kd2008]

It is a conversation we have already had.

It is taking 3-4 months for people to add their cases to Trackitt, even if they filed in the month they became Current.

Look at the first table here. Even November VB PD cases are still being added to Trackitt in significant quantities.

I simply love that table. Such a wonderful summary of all that has happened since October 2011.

[insane_yogi]

I might be off-topic, but is there a way from PERM data to filter EB2 and EB3? What about fields like PW_Source_Name_9089/PW_Level_9089 which indicates level of experience required for each job based on PWD ... From my experience noticed that EB2 candidates are usually required to fall under 'Level 3' or 'Level 4' categories. Any comments?