EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

How convenient! Yes ... this one counts too!

You are going to be Guru in few more days!

[tanu_75]

I had a question to the folks who are currently on 485 and hopefully got their GC's recently (still lurking?). I'm interested in stats on the AC21 thing, did USCIS request a follow-up letter before approving GC for employment verification, same similar kind of job etc. Or was there hardly any job related communication from USCIS between 485 and GC? Was it mostly other logistical stuff (EAD, FP's etc.). Even folks who are currently on the cusp (late 2006/early 2007 PD's) can comment on the requests from USCIS so far. This would help in career planning etc. for a bunch of folks here.

[vishnu]

Gurus - reg: the I-485 inventory which shows the EB2 IC pending demand for 2006 and 2007 (till July), does that include dependents too? I'm assuming all dependents at the time of the 'opening of the gates' also filed. But what about ppl who had filed at that time and subsequently got married?

[qesehmk]

That's correct. Dependents are included in the inventory for which 485 was filed.

Gurus - reg: the I-485 inventory which shows the EB2 IC pending demand for 2006 and 2007 (till July), does that include dependents too? I'm assuming all dependents at the time of the 'opening of the gates' also filed. But what about ppl who had filed at that time and subsequently got married?

[soggadu]

That's correct. Dependents are included in the inventory for which 485 was filed.

Couple of questions...

1. How much slipover is/would b used till may end
2. Without taking acct of pwmb , can the spilover numbers b sufficient to clear till 01 aug 07?

[qesehmk]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.

Couple of questions...

1. How much slipover is/would b used till may end
2. Without taking acct of pwmb , can the spilover numbers b sufficient to clear till 01 aug 07?

[soggadu]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.

Why would they consider pwmb in the slipover when they can't even assign a number before the fiscal year? IMO they need atleast 4-6 months to clear a case with name checks and all... In this scenario... Wouldn't they try to use all slipover and clear till 01 aug rather than waiting for pwmb and waste the numbers? I am not trying to get current with my argument but it looks more sensible to me ...trying to understand their DOS/CIS ways.... Also from April till July end 07 , the numbers are in the range of 5-6k which you said would be considered for pwmb....

[qesehmk]

very good point. Actually agree w you.

Why would they consider pwmb in the slipover when they can't even assign a number before the fiscal year? IMO they need atleast 4-6 months to clear a case with name checks and all... In this scenario... Wouldn't they try to use all slipover and clear till 01 aug rather than waiting for pwmb and waste the numbers? I am not trying to get current with my argument but it looks more sensible to me ...trying to understand their DOS/CIS ways.... Also from April till July end 07 , the numbers are in the range of 5-6k which you said would be considered for pwmb....

[TeluguBidda]

I do not know if DoS and USCIS go for a slip/sleepover But as far as spillover is concerned i think people on this forum thought that 6K was being used in May. And another 6K in june thus accounting for teh 12K that CO had mentioned earlier. (Roughly my friend .. who knows the reality).

PWMB is roughly 4-6K between Jan-Jul 2007. So do the math based on various people's projections. My own projection is Mar-Apr 2007 including PWMB till then.

If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

[qesehmk]

Expecting another 6K from EB1 wouldn't be unrealistic.
Its only a matter of couple of months for you. You should be through then.

If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

[soggadu]

If 12K spillover from EB-1 has already been allocated, would that mean that we should not expect any spillover from EB-1 in subsequent bulletins, i.e., starting July 2011 visa bulletin? Of course, the CO did not say that for the entire year, there would only be 12K spillover from EB-1, but let us assume that was the intent.

As luck has generally eluded me, I have braced myself up for yet another disappointing Visa Bulletin as far as I am concerned. I have a priority date of 11/29/2006 and I was just being pessimistic that July visa bulletin may indicate progress of EB-2IC to 11/29/2006.

Bidda.... Mark my words.... What ever all the forums might say... What ever the gurus may write.... What ever your past experiences might be.... YOU WILL B CURRENT in JUNE bulletin.... i.e. Be mentally, physically and psychologically prepAred and arrange for any documents if needed by JULY 01.....NO BDY can stop this.... I challenge

[pch053]

very good point. Actually agree w you.

In that case, my feeling is that all PWMB cases from July'06 onwards will only get adjudicated during the next year, i.e. after Sep'11. The earliest July'06 (and onwards) PWMB cases will submitted is 1st June'11 and assuming the turnaround time for I485 approval is greater than 4 months, its very unlikely that those will be approved this year. Also, my hunch is that most of the PWMB cases will have PDs later than Aug'06, since EB2-I PD up to Aug'06 was again current during late 2008. Will there be any change in EB2I movement prediction until Sep'11, if we assume that very few PWMB cases will be approved until Sep'11?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

i must say that soggadu really brought a very good point forward that PWMB can't be prcessed this year. There is no chance for them now.

So that creates an upside of 4K (approx) and make mar-apr 2007 a much more certainty than before. So even if ROW delivers zero. There is a very good possibility that the dates could move into early 2007 regardless of ROW EB2 SOFAD.

In that case, my feeling is that all PWMB cases from July'06 onwards will only get adjudicated during the next year, i.e. after Sep'11. The earliest July'06 (and onwards) PWMB cases will submitted is 1st June'11 and assuming the turnaround time for I485 approval is greater than 4 months, its very unlikely that those will be approved this year. Also, my hunch is that most of the PWMB cases will have PDs later than Aug'06, since EB2-I PD up to Aug'06 was again current during late 2008. Will there be any change in EB2I movement prediction until Sep'11, if we assume that very few PWMB cases will be approved until Sep'11?

Thanks!

[Spectator]

For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

[qesehmk]

A picture is worth a thousand words.

For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

[ChampU]

Quick Question regarding the data from trackitt..

1. What is the source of the data for trackitt?
2. Would an approval (or any stat for that matter) show up in the trackitt if the candidate hasn't registered on trackitt? I have a few friends who got their GCs in the last couple of years but hardly know anything about the immigration forums (Trackitt, IV et. al). Would their numbers show up in trackitt stats?

[mpurna77]

Quick Question regarding the data from trackitt..

1. What is the source of the data for trackitt?
2. Would an approval (or any stat for that matter) show up in the trackitt if the candidate hasn't registered on trackitt? I have a few friends who got their GCs in the last couple of years but hardly know anything about the immigration forums (Trackitt, IV et. al). Would their numbers show up in trackitt stats?

No Trackit data is only of registered users. I believe, That data gives some picture of pattern. But there is some paid option to track. if that gives all data not sure.

[imechanix]

Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.

[Spectator]

Thanks Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, GCWait2007 and others for great job.

Qs. USCIS Pending Employment-Based I-485 EB2-I Inventory shows atleast 1000 cases for each month from May 2007 to July 2007. Normally, it takes 3-4 months approval time for perm. So, how were folks able to file I-485. My PD is Jun 6th 2007 & I missed the boat by few days.

Sorry, if this is a silly question. I'm a newbie & this is my first post.

It's not a silly question at all.

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.

It appears some were very lucky and others not so.

I does mean that when we get to May-July 2007, there are probably another 7k people still waiting to file with those PD.

Good luck.

[ChampU]

If that is true, I guess that data can very well be used for trend analysis. But when we are talking absolute numbers, it may not be accurate because we are looking at a very small sub-set of the actual volume.
I wish I could read Chinese or know the Chinese immigration forums and understand whats going on in EB2-C circles. I'm sure they are crunching numbers like us and would love to see what their projections are.

[veni001]

For those interested, here is the progress to date.

Bear in mind that it takes some time for approvals to be entered, so that later dates may not be (and will not be) complete yet.

Nonetheless, after a fast start, the level of approvals does seem to have tailed off somewhat.

I'm not sure if that is significant or not.

Thanks Spec,
Since most of the EBI&C approvals are from pre-adjudicated once, it shouldn't take long for USCIS assign a number!
Looks like 3/4th of the approvals are happening in the fist half each month!

[veni001]

If that is true, I guess that data can very well be used for trend analysis. But when we are talking absolute numbers, it may not be accurate because we are looking at a very small sub-set of the actual volume.
I wish I could read Chinese or know the Chinese immigration forums and understand whats going on in EB2-C circles. I'm sure they are crunching numbers like us and would love to see what their projections are.

ChampU,
If you know the sites you can use Google translate!

[imechanix]

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.

Thanks Spec, that answers my qs. It's amazing that USCIS cleared 1,673 EB2-I perm cases in July 2007.

[Gclongwait]

It's not a silly question at all.

Looking at the PERM data, a lot of approvals around that time were taking only weeks or days, whilst others were taking months.

It appears some were very lucky and others not so.

I does mean that when we get to May-July 2007, there are probably another 7k people still waiting to file with those PD.

Good luck.

7k seems a bit too much. Even if we equally divide 7K between Apr, May, June , July of '07 that would mean we need to add ~1700 for each month, that would mean each of these months would have had nearly 3K or more filings if there were instantaneous Perm approvals.
Not a single month for entire 2006 or mid 2007 has more than 1881 filings (Dec 2006). I don't think anything would move that far from the mean. I think July 2007 would be the max since many people would have hurried up and filed after seeing it go current. From my personal experience I remember that my company's (at that time) lawyers were prioiritizing I-485's over perms.

[pch053]

I consider myself one of the very lucky ones who were able to file the I485 during the 1 month window; my PD is 11th July'07, got my PERM approval on 2nd Aug'07 and submitted my I485 on 16th Aug (a day before the deadline). I have seen people with similar PDs missing the I485 deadline by a whisker but I do agree that my employer's lawyers and HR folks were fully focusing on I485 submission during the first half of Aug'07.