EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Wov, the guy CM surely took an inspiration from some of the posts here by Teddy, Q and Spec, or maybe great minds think alike!

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........

[suninphx]

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........

He seem to have considered the Jan inventory to its face value( well almost near the face value). That's VERY interesting.. Also blog seem to be projecting SOFAD upto 35K. Thats also interesting , specially when considered individual category usages.

My own estimate that dates will be around Sep/Oct 2008 are based on following assumptions:
1) OR of around 0.7
2) slow processing from USCIS will help to approvals of more EB2IC cases. But SOFAD of 35K is far stretched IMO. If we manage to get SOFAD OF 27K-30K then we should consider our selves very lucky IMO.
3) Another assumption is (a big one may be ) that USCIS will carry forward sizable chunk of EB2IC cases into next FY(last year they carried cases worth 3-4 months).

So that's my case.

As per whether dates will keep on moving that's entirely based on what data is being presented to CO. That's kind of uncharted territory to me.

[Desperate8]

Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak , just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it )

[goforgreen]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

Thanks Q for bringing much needed sanity to the predictions, we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.

[bloddy1]

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

[suninphx]

Throwing into into the conversation mix; http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

A lot of folks are arguing numbers but not their validity, which I suspect is very inaccurate, especially the Jan filing numbers. The only reliable statistic at this point is Nov/Dec numbers and based on that I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

Numbers are inaccurate on which site? As far as I can tell you- majority of people on this site understand that Jan numbers can not be taken to face value as well as the current movement is not because of low demand. If at all, current movement is because of artificially low numbers being presented to CO.

[qesehmk]

Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.

Just relieving my pressure here......

Being on EAD is good but at-last I am a human as-well , wants my dates (Oct 2008) to be processed with the ongoing trend duh I have lost hopes for anytime soon.With all postings (not an offense), my frustrations are at peak , just back from gym did cardio 3 times more than I usually do.sounds funny to me when I think of it but that is all it is ....wanted to share with my best friends here at the forum

I have had a lot from this whole process, had to be away from my family for a year - had been through lots of mental pressure--- I am obsessed by GC - I want it )

..we had really gone overboard and were thinking all of 2008 PDs will be cleared. It will be great if it happens but I find it difficult to understand why demand would suddenly drop from a monthly 2200 to much less than than.

GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

Q, I totally agree with you that ideally if all demand was generated at this point, March 2008 is a very good guess .....Hence I think that the dates ...may just sustain near the end of 2008/mid 2009 ....
...
they might intentionally start sending out RFEs or delay processing, which means that the dates would artificially hold.

sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

..I could definitely see things retrogressing in April VB.

My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

[tatikonda]

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

[harapatta]

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/0...es-what-to-do/

[usernameisnotvalid]

If your employer was running your salary through adp, you will get this by 31st Jan, 2013 , of course.

But, here is what I would do (infact I did): Shoot him a mail (for your record) that you need W2 form to file taxes and mention that you will go to IRS if he does not give it to you.

There was a link I saw somewhere - google it. It essentially mentions that you can call IRS or DOL for this and they will follow up with the employer. Do not worry about this -just drop him/her a mail.

Thanks

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

[tatikonda]

check the link...hope it helps

http://www.h1blegalrights.com/2009/0...es-what-to-do/

Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

[eb2igc]

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

[usernameisnotvalid]

Adp sends W2 forms in snail mail directly to your home address. If you loose W2 form or don't receive one than you contact your HR - at least this is what we do in our company.

Hi Harapatta,

Thanks for quick reply. I want to resolve this issue amicably. Can I contact Pay-roll company ( Paycheck ) and ask them to send W2.

How does W2 gets generated, I guess Pay-roll company sends to employer and employer sends to employee.
Please advise.

Thank you

[mysati]

I am following this thread for long time, but posting for the first time. I want to thank all member of this forum for providing analysis and information related to 485 process. Specially Qesehmek, Spectator, Veni, Teddy, Leo, Nishanth for spending time and crunching number and offcourse Sogaddu for cheering the group.
I filed 485 in November and received GC last week & my Journey to GC ends here. So, want to take a moment to thank members of this forum and Hope everyone gets GC soon. Good Luck to all.

Congrats and good luck to you too!

[usernameisnotvalid]

Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)

Desperate - Your frustration is understandable. But for your own sake don't be obsessed with GC. It's not worth more than whatever you like to do day in day out. Obsession with GC will hurt very things you like.


GFG - Yes. There is a bit of euphoria due to unexpected date movement. And those of us who understand the difference between date movement and GC backlog clearance, should point it out for benefit of those who dont. I think the numbers could go down because of economy. However I do not believe demand destruction - as in people abandoning GC process in hoards. There is just too much that people have staked to walk upto this point to just go back.

sportsfan the first one is a good point you make. i thought about it too. I do not know what exact number we could put there. But thoughts welcome! However even if somebody misses now - they will file within 2-3 months. So there won't be a sustained effect - so much so to move the EB2IC dates permanently near end of 2008 during this year itself.

On USCIS deliberately sending out RFE to delay processing .... I think they don't need to increase their workload just to delay things. They can simply delay things and take their sweet time if they want to.

My position is I don't know precisely. If the original movement is in response of true lack of demand then you can predict somewhat. But when the date movement is not based on demand and supply - how does one predict? All one can say is - this party will come to an end sometime really soon!!

[manzoorraza]

Tatikonda,
Send the employer an email as Usernamenot valid suggested requesting your W2 and citing the reason as filing for taxes; make sure you copy the highest ranking official you can get access to. Most of the times a written communication softens the stand or at the very least gets you documented evidence that either there was no response or (better) they denied you the same (which offcourse has legal implications for the company). If I were you I would try and keep it amicable the first time around and if you dont hear back for a few days send a reminder and mention redressal options.
On the side, you can call Paycheck customer service and request them to send you the information by mail or set up an online account (if they have that option) to access your information directly and print the same. With my previous employer we were able to access our information through an online account. If you receive an online stub you may be able to get a link from there to signup for access.
Thanks

[qesehmk]

Sure it feels that way!! But it aint that way !!

Q, what part of "GC is greener!" don't you understand :-)

[desiman]

in case if it helps in any calculation


SRC1290000xxx - received - September 29, 2011

SRC1290050xxx - card delivered - February 17, 2012

SRC1290070xxx - received - December 9, 2011

SRC1290100xxx - received - January 5, 2012

SRC1290160xxx - no status - mid feb

[polapragada]

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

[nishant2200]

Hey My Ex-Employer is not giving my W2. What are my options ?
I worked with him until Sep 2012 and then changed employer with his permission but he is not giving W2.

Please advice.
Sorry, As I posted in wrong forum.

IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

[vizcard]

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

[nishant2200]

Replies added in below to your question

I have filed my I485 (AOS) case on Dec 1st, 2011 the case is still pending with USCIS. Along with AOS, we have filed for EAD and Advance Parole, which got approved and I have physical EAD/AP on my hand. And I have valid H1B petition (No H1B Stamp, current stamp expired on).

I have situation back at, I need to travel to India immediately this week end I am not willing to go for stamping of H1B. I would like to start using my EAD/AP.


Now, I have following questions:

1. Can I travel to INDIA and come back in 2 weeks without any port of entry issues by using my EAD/AP card?
Yes, with caveats: Your AOS should not be denied meanwhile. Else you would need a valid H1 stamp to enter on H1 status. People have also raised doubts for AOS being in RFE status and ability to re-enter on AP, but I personally feel it would work out.
3. If yes, what all the documentation that need to carry with me, which are required at POE on my return?
Passport, EAD/AP combo card, Filing receipts of 485. All other filing receipts, H1 approval notice etc, should be kept in the carry on purse or laptop bag etc, not checked in baggage, so that you can produce at short notice to officer if needed.
3. What if my I-485 gets approved while I am in India? On what status I should try to enter into USA on my return?
This one I am not sure, folks have mentioned that if you know you are approved, in addition to above documents, you can inform officer you are approved, or you can show him a print out of the case status page which shows approval for your receipt number. Some have suggested going to US consulate to get some stamp, I am not sure that is really needed or not. I personally don't think it is.
4. In the #3 case, do I need to visit US embassy in INDIA to get the immigration stamping?
Not sure, see above.
5. If yes, what is the procedure?
N/A
6. Are there any other complexities involved this scenario, which I can’t think of?
Keep things simple, please don't go if you can avoid going!


Kindly make some time to reply in detail ASAP

[polapragada]

1. yes
2. EAD/AP card + passport. You might want to carry your 797.
3. My lawyers said theres no issue there and u can enter with AP card
4, 5 - see #3
6. Only complexity I've heard is that they pull you aside for secondary checks at POE.

Thanks for quick response....I can live with secondary check at POE

[manzoorraza]

Nishant,
I think the W2 that you can get from the IRS website through form 4506 is for past years (where taxes have already been filed). If I undertand correctly Tatikonda needs the W2 to file the taxes in the first place for year 2011. If that is correct then his only options are either the employer or the payroll processor.
Thanks

IRS form 4506

http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc159.html

[waiting]

Thanks for this. Quick question - "follow-to-join" only applies when I-485 is approved correct? Assuming dates are current & I-485 is "pending", depandent's 485 can be filled ?