EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[suninphx]

Friends just did a simple query on Trackitt for EB2 ROW + Primary + Approved
Oct 2010 - Feb 2011 - 184
Oct 2011 - Feb 2012 - 170
This means ROW has almost caught up considering we still have days in Feb, ROW was lagging back big time initially the exact same thing had happened last year.
Now if CO's statement of flat utilization of 9% per month is indeed true then in 5 months we have already seen 18K SOFAD at this rate we should see SOFAD in excess of 35K. For this to be true it appears that there is actually a larger sample of people on Trackitt now than in the past. If the pace of approvals is that high then reaching 01-JAN-2009 by Sep 2012 is a possibility. 18K in 5 months can easily be extrapolated to 36K in 12 months. I don’t believe that demand destruction could really be worse than a corresponding OR of 0.75 which would make it 1650 a month EB2 I/C this is my personal belief however I respect everyone’s opinion.
As of now even Dec cases are being approved quite consistently so surely even in the worst case scenario everyone till 15th Mar 2008 should get approved. I think that the approval volumes will be high in Q3 as well but will subside in Q4 where the allocation is less. Next VB will be very interesting to see the direction. Most important thing is how sound is the basis for the current approvals assuming its in the 9% per month boundary.
Here is how I came up with the 18K figure. Pre Oct Average of Inventory and Demand data is 8.5K + 14K(Does not have CP) = 12K. There have been atleast 6K I/C approvals since then.

Teddy,

I am in agreement with the number of 1600-1800/PM. Let's not worry about individual OR assumptions for now. So you have same number for PD2009 too?

[suninphx]

SPHX - based on USCIS data, I calculated EB2IC in oct-nov-dec to be at approx 2K per month of 2007 - pls see my previous post. For that 2K to be less means EB1 and EB2ROW will have to be more ie more than 7K i.e. more than last year's rate per month. Regardless of state of economy EB2IC / EB2ROW ratio should remain constant and as such I think it is highly unlikley that EB2ROW will be more and EB2IC will be less at the same time (compared to the prior yer values).

However I do concede the point that DD could be upto 25%. That's possible. But asI said thats not high enough to cause the date movements which IMHO is completely policy driven (again!).

As per CM's prediction - I generally do not follow his blog. However I do read it sometimes whenver somebody puts a line or two recommending that we read something there. I have good regard for him/her. However on EB2IC reaching 2008Q4 during USCIS Fiscal 2012 I have to strongly disagree. I am 100% confident that's not going to happen.

Sorry ... don't mean to ruin somebody's hopes. But neither I want to give false hopes to people.

Ok- I am not sure if I have completely understood your post but I guess bottom line is that you are expecting the dates to be around 2008Q1 by end of FY2012.

[iamdeb]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon

Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

[Jonty Rhodes]

Sorry to post something off topic but I really found this one interesting. Please remove it later or move it to appropriate thread.

The article basically mentions that a correlation exists between increasing H1B denials at US Consular Posts in India and direct pressure of Senator Grassley on Department of State for doing it.

http://imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2...-in-india.html

[kkruna]

Gurus will reply you better. What I can contribute is many ppl from my co go to Canada (Calgary better) for extension. I went for conversion from L1B to H1B.

[qesehmk]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

Q, I have 3 points:

a) It is only February and we are already seeing the earlier half of December filers getting out of the way. I think December 2011 filers will mostly be dealt with shortly and they might even start with January filers, which will easily take them beyond Q1/2008.

b) It is true that they may "end" at Q1/2008 if retrogression is severe, but there is a fundamental difference. A lot of people beyond that retrogressed date would be approved (very likely scenario) resulting in demand density substantially lower than what is assumed in calculations thus speeding the forward moment when the worst of retrogression is over. I believe from trackitt, we have seen Jan 2008 getting a GC so far. Many December 2007 filers are getting greened consistently.

c) I am still not seeing any signs of retrogression/stall. By all accounts, VB will again move forward in April (although I reserve judgment until it happens), which will be the 7th consecutive month of forward movement! It is very very unlikely that a forward movement will continue if the danger of severe retrogression looms and Q1/2008 is very severe considering how far the envelope has been pushed already.

In effect, my theory is that of a smooth transition. There is demand, but it is slow in showing up mainly due to RFEs, and inability of people to file right away (stuck in H1B limbo, unfriendly employers surprised at the sudden movement, many people not being married etc). This demand will "eventually" show up, but by that time, the bulk of 2008 and 2009 people with 'clean cases" would already be cleared. So the rate of forward progression will stall/stop, however retrogression won't be bad (in how much the envelop is pushed back or the length it stays there). When the dust settles, 2011 filers will start getting greened only in 2014 and EB2-IC will not be current any time soon - however the wait time will go down to 3 years instead of 5 assuming everything else stays the same.

[suninphx]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

IMO, above scenario might play out if dates retrogress prior to Mar 2008 (as soon as by next bulletin). If they don't then there is chance that we will see some approvals from Jan VB filers. And that changes whole game. In that case technically dates can still be at Mar 2008 by end of FY 2012 by not in true sense.

Now whether dates will retrogress and to what point is big question. If CO is going by the numbers what we saw in latest inventory( which is obviously much lower than true demand) then chances of retrogression are much less.

[iamdeb]

Wow!! That's wonderful news indeed. So does it mean that the PD will reach June 2011 in the near future?

I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

[kd2008]

sport
My premise is based on following facts:
1. There were 40K EB1 EB2 left at the end of 2011 Sep.
2. In Q1 2012 of USCIS year only 36K were approved. So theoretically all intake that came in Q1 2012 is on top of earlier inventory not including EB3.
3. The incoming rate is ~2K for EB2IC.
4. Rate of everything else is same as last year.
5. So this year we will see same SOFAD + any reduction in EB2IC (i.e. 500 per month)
6. The reduction is approx 6K .... so ~3 months of supply.
7. So the max movement in 2012 year should be = same as last year's movement + 3 months.
8 Last year the sustainable movement was 11 months. This year it could be max 14 months i.e. August 2008.
9. Now consider this that EB1 backlog in 2011 grew from 7.5K to 15K!! For a category that is current this is not a sustainable situation to have that high backlog. So we should see more approvals there negating the 3 month advantage in EB2IC reduction in demand.
10. That takes us back to March 2008.

Also this doesn't take into account any improvement in EB1 or EB2ROW if economy improves.

Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.

[qesehmk]

Q I completely agree with your analysis and I would agree more if the dates had already retrogressed. Things would play out as you say. But we haven't yet seen retrogression and we are seeing quarterly spillover. That changes the whole game.

KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws

[vizcard]

I hope the Gurus or the experts out here will shed some more light on this NVC thing. I am planning to goto India, but I can wait if my PD May 2011 is going to be current in the near future.That's why I want to know how significant is the news that June 2011 PD person is receiving NVC notice.

It means June 2011 will be current in the next 12 months. My guess..and purely a guess...is that the movement will happen in Q1 FY 2013. Till then I expect the dates will stall or retrogress.

[kd2008]

KD - technically the dates shouldn't have progressed at all. So the movement itself is artificial. So retrogression also wouldn't be quite meaningful to predict anything. I think if I were to be wrong then somebody needs to look at Jan 485 inventory data and compare that with Oct 2011 485 data and then use the 485 approval data USCIS published. That combined information may yield something that might go against all of my theory As of now I haven't done that and only used 485 Oct 2011 inventory, and latest USCIS approval data. So yes i could very well be wrong. And will be glad if I am wrong.

p.s. - And hey disagreements are a good thing. That's how we learn new things. So please disagree and point out flaws

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[mesan123]

Seeing so much analysis....after long very nice....based on this new data, i see that most of you guys think there wont be any moment or it may retrogress...but in that case why are they sending NVC reciepts.....my assumption is ,if CO thinks there is chance of those dates getting current they would send the reciepts.... i am assuming they wont be sending reciepts if they think the dates would be current for one or two years....am i wrong here?

one more thing...they are not sending reciepts to just 2010 folks even mid 2011 people(june) or getting reciepts...

[suninphx]

Spec, I have a question .

In my understanding, if anyone changes the status from H4 to H1, asper the Last-Action Rule , he immediately falls under H1 even if he hasn't joined the employer and falls out of status between the period H1 start date to actual join date .

Is Last-Action Rule not applicable to L1 to H1?

That is applicable only if he has asked COS - which is not the case here. So he must have got approval notice without new I94 attached.

[Kanmani]

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

[suninphx]

Sun, thanks. Can you please explain more in this context, H4->H1 Vs L1->H1?

AFAIK, we can ask apply with or without COS in both H4->H1 and L1->H1 cases. I am pretty sure about this but let's see what others have to say. So last action rule will be applicable only when approval comes with new I94 (indicating changed status)attached.

[qesehmk]

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?

Q, few pages back I had posted my analysis. I am reposting below:

So far my contention is that the 31.5K approvals may be as follows:

EB3: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB2IC: 6.5K (pre-adjudicated)
EB4: 2.5K
EB5: 3K (based on Dec. presentation by USCIS)

This leaves EB1+EB2(nonIC) = 31.5K - 6.5K -6.5K -2.5K - 3K = 13K. Is this number low? Some say yes, others say no.
Based on the above assumption:

This is my analysis for Q1 FY 2012

From I-485 Inventory of Oct 2011, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5= 26.3K
Q1 FY 2012 Receipts = 35.5K (Some of these may be porting related filings, but lets assume them zero for now)
Lets us say EB2IC receipts =X
Therefore the receipts from rest of the categories = 35.5 -X
From I-485 Inventory of Jan 2012, EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 29.9K
Visas used up by EB1+Eb2(non-IC)+EB4+EB5 = 18.5K (based on the category break-down assumption above)

26.3K + (35.5K -X) - 29.9K = 18.5K
Solve for X, X = 13.4K

These are probably the receipts for EB2IC in Q1 FY 2012.

This would imply, EB2ROW I-485 is higher, IC applications are lower than 1600/month, which implies that SOFAD will be lower but since IC application are low the dates will still progress.

[kd2008]

KD .... I think your entire logic is very good. I think conclusion is also right. So either EB2IC is low and SOFAD is low. Or EB2IC is normal and SOFAD is normal. In either case we will be looking at simliar to prior year movement forward which is about 11 months. Right? (Of course not including any downside because of improving economy or reduction of EB1 inventory resulting in even lower SOFAD). Makes sense?

Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

[qesehmk]

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.

Yes, I am agreeing with a reservation

I really can't seem to understand what the net effect will be of the massive date movement, quarterly/monthly spillover, NVC notices sent up to PDs of June 2011, slow progress in processing EB1 cases, slow down in PERM approvals.

[nishant2200]

We like to think government as a single focused entity with a single policy and objective. But in reality it is a combination of multiple departments and people and pressure groups trying to achieve different objectives. So the forward mvement could be opportunistic behavior from people who do want to push forward EB immigration. I think we can only go by hard facts and say regardless of where dates move, the fundamental demand supply will dictate where the dates will eventually settle atthe end of 2012.

Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

[vizcard]

Q and kd, one observation I had. Utilizing visas to the fullest extent, and following the SO priority of EB5->EB1->EB2->EB3 and fall across within from ROW to IC, etc. seems to be a much more hardline goals of CO than I imagined earlier. He really does not want to take any chances. He would rather go visas go to EB2IC for applicants belonging to much later date via CP, rather than just simply opening flood gates on the ton of pre-adjudicated EB3IC inventory and EB3ROW, and I have a feeling that if ever that situation does come that EB3 gets the SO because EB2 could not be processed fast enough by USCIS, or not enough applications were available, or CP could not help in consuming completely, he will indeed make EB2 current, and only then will flow over visas to EB3.

Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

[Teja9999]

Got EAD/AP Approved, thanks for all your support

Service Center : Texas
PD : 12/19/2007
USCIS RD : 01/23/2012
USCIS ND : 01/25/2012
FP : 03/05/2012
EAD/AP Approval date : 02/25/2012

[qesehmk]

Nishant - I agree. For EB3 to receive any SOFAD whatsoever, EB2 will have to be current first.

[Jonty Rhodes]

This was just posted on CM's blog. He has now revised his prediction and is mentioning that retrogression may be severe based on I-485 receipt data which was released just few days ago. I don't know whether he uses the same method of calculation as Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy, Kd, Nishant, Sunniphx and other Gurus are using here but what I understood from his prediction was that basically his prediction is pretty much in line with what Q and Spec are saying.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...a-fy-2012.html

Comments please........

[nishant2200]

Isn't your last sentence the current policy?

vizcard, there is no such thing as current policy or any rule, IMHO. We can interpret all we want and agencies can leave us baffled. My attempt is to try to understand the mindset of CO, because I am personally, not satisfied with any model or logic thought by us or anyone that could have predicted such movement.