EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[CleanSock]

I have no plans of leaving my employer even after I get my GC, but I still want an EAD ASAP simply because my wife can start working. And why would anyone not want an EAD? It is better than having an H1B at any cost. At the very least, I do not need to visit the damn consulate again and waste a day in getting stamped (even if I was confident of smooth sailing, which seems rare these days).

Besides, there are very few people who would want to be stuck at the same position for years. If your GC is pending, you would never get to the executive level and that's a fact. I had to let go some great presales opportunities looking at expanding our business in Asia because my GC was pending. I even don't even think about changing jobs because my GC is pending. Everyone wants something more no matter how "happy" they are.

Your premise of "slow and steady wins the race" is not correct. In fact you are better served with a fast movement, because a) you get your EAD fast, and b) as long as there is no retrogression and your case does not result in an RFE, you can even get your GC out of order and fast.

I agree with you about not going to the consulate for stamping thing. As I said before, this probably is an isolated and unique case. Making it current is beneficial for people awaiting their GC's but as everyone is suggesting, CO is very careful this time in moving the dates after 2007 fiasco and may not make them current unless the demand is really really low.

[vizcard]

It is nothing related to my case. I was just generalizing. Some people want EAD quickly because of various reasons like wanting to change employer etc.They may not worry as much about VB retrogressing as the first thing on their minds is getting an EAD whereas, others who are not in such a situation (relatively speaking), who don't have any plans to change employer etc don't care as much about getting EAD quickly or not as long as they get GC.
I know a person who doesn't even bother to follow the forums and is of thinking that it'll come whenever it has to come ( he has no plans of changing his employer and is quite happy working there). But then, this might be an isolated case. What i mean to say is, people like that are not so worried about getting EAD quickly (at least this guy).

I maybe wrong on this. Maybe people like that are very less in percentage.

I have no plans of leaving my employer even after I get my GC, but I still want an EAD ASAP simply because my wife can start working. And why would anyone not want an EAD? It is better than having an H1B at any cost. At the very least, I do not need to visit the damn consulate again and waste a day in getting stamped (even if I was confident of smooth sailing, which seems rare these days).

Besides, there are very few people who would want to be stuck at the same position for years. If your GC is pending, you would never get to the executive level and that's a fact. I had to let go some great presales opportunities looking at expanding our business in Asia because my GC was pending. I even don't even think about changing jobs because my GC is pending. Everyone wants something more no matter how "happy" they are.

Your premise of "slow and steady wins the race" is not correct. In fact you are better served with a fast movement, because a) you get your EAD fast, and b) as long as there is no retrogression and your case does not result in an RFE, you can even get your GC out of order and fast.

I don't plan on changing jobs either and I'm pretty close to making Partner in my Firm... with or without GC. That being said EAD opens up some doors that H1 doesn't.
1. Spouse can start/ continue working (if her company doesn't sponsor GC). My wife works in fashion and its a miracle they even hired a foreigner.
2. You can start a business.
3. You can do secondments to other countries. I've had the opportunity to go to Asia for a short period and build a practice/book of business there but given a pending GC situation, its tricky.
4. You can go to school part-time and work part time without having to deal with F1/ CPT / H1 crap.

[vizcard]

I agree with you about not going to the consulate for stamping thing. As I said before, this probably is an isolated and unique case. Making it current is beneficial for people awaiting their GC's but as everyone is suggesting, CO is very careful this time in moving the dates after 2007 fiasco and may not make them current unless the demand is really really low.

Making dates "current" doesn't mean people will get GCs. It means ppl can apply for GCs. Secondly, CO will not make them current unless there is ZERO demand. Low or very low will not cut it. It was very very low in Oct / Nov / Dec this year but he didn't make it current.

[qesehmk]

Here is one more I read somewhere long time back. But still makes me giggle!

Marxist Leninist Approach to Cow Economics
You have two cows and neighbor has one. The state kills one of yours to establish equality.

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[kkruna]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...

I don't plan on changing jobs either and I'm pretty close to making Partner in my Firm... with or without GC. That being said EAD opens up some doors that H1 doesn't.
1. Spouse can start/ continue working (if her company doesn't sponsor GC). My wife works in fashion and its a miracle they even hired a foreigner.
2. You can start a business.
3. You can do secondments to other countries. I've had the opportunity to go to Asia for a short period and build a practice/book of business there but given a pending GC situation, its tricky.
4. You can go to school part-time and work part time without having to deal with F1/ CPT / H1 crap.

[narendarrao]

narendarrao,

The figures for last year have not been published yet. EB2-IC have very low amounts of CP.

In FY2010 (the last year figures are available), CP accounted for 172 cases out of the 26,466 approvals for EB2-IC.

Possibly, the numbers post July 2007 are slightly higher, but they are not going to amount to large numbers.

As of November 1, 2011, NVC reported they had 4,758 cases (including dependents) for EB2-IC. That would cover the period from around mid 2007 to November 2011 (about 1k per PD year).

Thank you Spectator.

[Jonty Rhodes]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...

Agree with you. I actually just completed my Masters in Public Health (MPH) last year. I was on F1 doing my Masters earlier but had to drop out because I secured a position for residency (post-graduation) in Internal Medicine to do my MD (on H1B) and it was impossible for me to do both MD and MPH at the same time due to time constraints.

Once I finished my MD, I started the job in a hospital on H1B and completed my remaining 8 credit hours when I dropped out from MPH courses and completed my Masters on H1B as a part-time student.

And yes, I have heard about people completing their PhD on H1B also.

[CleanSock]

Exactly...that is what i meant to say..making it current won't guarantee a GC but people would get at least get EAD making it beneficial. As you said, EAD does open up few doors for people especially dependents of Primary making it beneficial for them

Making dates "current" doesn't mean people will get GCs. It means ppl can apply for GCs. Secondly, CO will not make them current unless there is ZERO demand. Low or very low will not cut it. It was very very low in Oct / Nov / Dec this year but he didn't make it current.

[mbasense]

You cant go to school part time on H1?
I have heard ppl completing PhD on H1...

yes u can go to school on H1 or H4, anything that involves putting your money into the economy(go to school, buy a house etc.) you're welcome to do on a H1

[Spectator]

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

Spec, do you think it is possible to figure out the number of cases that USCIS processed vs approvals from pre-adjudicated cases? It may be a rough estimate, but it may tell us if USCIS can process enough cases this fiscal year. A long-shot from these general numbers but I thought I would ask.

[Spectator]

Spec, do you think it is possible to figure out the number of cases that USCIS processed vs approvals from pre-adjudicated cases? It may be a rough estimate, but it may tell us if USCIS can process enough cases this fiscal year. A long-shot from these general numbers but I thought I would ask.

kd,

I haven't had a look at that yet.

What I did notice was the I-485 receipt levels for EB.

Oct -- 8,497
Nov - 11,925
Dec - 15,023

Tot - 35,445

Those are much higher than I was expecting, although it isn't possible to isolate them further into Category and Country.

But they must be from Categories/Countries who have a Current PD, so it is either high EB2-IC receipts or high receipts from others that would affect spillover.

[kd2008]

kd,

I haven't had a look at that yet.

What I did notice was the I-485 receipt levels for EB.

Oct -- 8,497
Nov - 11,925
Dec - 15,023

Tot - 35,445

Those are much higher than I was expecting, although it isn't possible to isolate them further into Category and Country.

But they must be from Categories/Countries who have a Current PD, so it is either high EB2-IC receipts or high receipts from others that would affect spillover.

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...eData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

[imdeng]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.

Does the level of incoming I-140 (18K/Q, 72K/Year) seem sustainable? After including dependents, EB1, EB2-NIW, this level of filing does not allow for the waitlist to go down in future, especially considering that this is a down-economy number.

These seem to be partly published now http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2012-qtr1.pdf

Although the Reports page says it was published February 15, it was not there yesterday.

EB I-485 approvals were 31,541.

If we assume the full 27% visa numbers were allocated (37,800) then the difference is Consular Processed. That gives a CP % of 16.56%. That increase may be due to increasing numbers of EB3-Philippines CP cases.

EB I-140 Receipts for the quarter were 17,979 and 16,315 I-140 were approved.

[kd2008]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.

Does the level of incoming I-140 (18K/Q, 72K/Year) seem sustainable? After including dependents, EB1, EB2-NIW, this level of filing does not allow for the waitlist to go down in future, especially considering that this is a down-economy number.

It is actually lower by about 2K compared to the average per quarter from last year.

[suninphx]

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...eData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

Why 15K for Oct - Dec 2011 is high number? If we sustract PWMBs then number per month comes less than 2K(even if we discount for some people who have not filed yet). If 15K is the number near actual number then I dont think its high.

[imdeng]

15K is not very high for EB2IC for Q1FY2012 since that includes PD from 15-Apr-2007 to 15-Mar-2008. If we include PWMB@1K/month until 15-Aug and then fresh filers at 2K/month from 15-Aug to 15-Mar that comes to 18K.

Yes, you are right. If you look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...eData_FY11.pdf

The average in-take has been about 19.5K to 20K per quarter. It would suggest that the intake for EB2IC during Oct-Dec 2011 period is about 15K. That is quite high indeed.

[kd2008]

From Spec's PERM data, There were 21.7K PERM approvals for the date movement - I am inlcuding only the post July 2007 approvals from Apr 15, 2007 to March 15, 2008. Assuming 15K apps were filed, it gives us an OR of 15/21.7 ~ 0.7.

[Kanmani]

But the inventory shows those numbers include some PWMBs and Porters . We should exclude them for calculating OR. Am I correct?

[kd2008]

It is matching the latest inventory total , why do you think it is high ?

It would have been better if it were closer to 10 to 12K. 15K implies slightly higher OR, resulting in slightly more severe retrogression if it happens.

[kd2008]

But the inventory shows those numbers include some PWMBs and Porters . We should exclude them for calculating OR. Am I correct?

Yes, for a precise calculation. Mine was rough one with a "~" and not a "=". Sorry for not being clear.

[Spectator]

They might not have allocated the whole 27% (considering all the concerns about USCIS lagging behind) - so 16.56% is the upper limit for CP - it might be significantly less depending upon how far behind USCIS is from the 27% target level.

imdeng,

We know that part way through January, 34% had been allocated, so it was on target to reach the 36% allowed for 4 months, so I don't think it is a stretch to say it did reach 27% by the end of December.

[rockybaba]

YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Until yesterday, i was singing this

"Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!

Baarah saloon mein...baarah tareekon se...mujhgo GC ka intezaar hai re!!!

Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!"

Today... here's my new song

"Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!

Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!"

Both me and my wife have been approved!!

Thanks everybody, especially the gurus....y'all have made the journey fun and easy...!

Hungama Hungama hojayega hungama...

[kkruna]

An implication from the data is that they can process "new I-485" at 10K+ per month. That should settle concerns about "slow processing" by USCIS?

[CleanSock]

Congratulations rockybaba. It came on a friday, right in time for a weekend party. Enjoy!

YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Until yesterday, i was singing this

"Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!

Baarah saloon mein...baarah tareekon se...mujhgo GC ka intezaar hai re!!!

Dhinka chika Dhinka Chika Hey hey hey heeeeeeee!!"

Today... here's my new song

"Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!

Aaao jee Aao jee......Dil se dil milao jee....Aa gaya hai dekho GREENCARD !!!"

Both me and my wife have been approved!!

Thanks everybody, especially the gurus....y'all have made the journey fun and easy...!

Hungama Hungama hojayega hungama...