EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[kd2008]

Kd, are'nt you Dec or Jan filer? I thought 2008 is your Pd/year, likewise immi2910. 29/10 - birthday?

Kanmani, that is kind of you. I ain't no filer yet. 2008 is when I got my job.

[just_curious]

I had mentioned my date in the heading but it is 6/14/2011 (or may be 6/13/2011 I am not sure).

mixed feeling after hearing this....

Anyway congrats and Good Luck, immi2910!!!!

[immi2910]

Kd, are'nt you Dec or Jan filer? I thought 2008 is your Pd/year, likewise immi2910. 29/10 - birthday?

29/10 (Indian Format) is my b'day.

[suninphx]

I guess I was blinded with excitement to register it in my brain. Sorry!

Its exciting news indeed! Whats ur PD?

[Spectator]

I am trying to understand the following line from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

While it is possible that USCIS may be holding on to some approved I-485 petitions, the National Visa Center caseload is the data that drive the priority dates published in the Visa Bulletin each month.

I was always under impression that qualified applications from USCIS are counted towards the demand data along with NVC applications.

Can someone please explain this to me?

Thanks.

narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

[nishant2200]

and the Wasem guy probably gets paid a much fatter pay check than most of us here. dang.

narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

[CleanSock]

My PD is June 2011 and I have received Fee Notice from NVC. Just this morning I had replied to someone with Oct 2010 saying I do not expect it anytime soon

I know I am saying the same thing as others, but this is really exciting. Hope this date does become current in a year as everybody says about NVC

[CleanSock]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

[Pundit Arjun]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

CleanSock, Checkout the FAQs thread for information.

[immi2910]

Also, I have a question, pardon me if it's a silly one. Is SOFAD = unused visas in other categories which are then distributed between EB2I/C? If so, what does SOFAD stand for?

The first acronym on the first post of this thread:
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down

[eb2ODer]

I know I am saying the same thing as others, but this is really exciting. Hope this date does become current in a year as everybody says about NVC

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

[kd2008]

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

I get what you are saying.

For people filing AOS: NO GC, NO EAD < No GC, YES EAD < YES GC

So I have to disagree with you. I would rather see as many people as possible get their EADs.

[immi2910]

I know everybody is excited, given my PD is 06/2011!!!!!!!!!!!! I must be excited, but this news is somewhat unsettling.

My reasoning if CO opens the flood gates in July 2012 (similar if not same as 2007) by moving cut-off dates to 2011 then this will only mean out of order processing to meet Visa numbers and then further retrogression, (some will benefit from EAD but) longer wait for 2010 & 2011 folks to obtain GC itself. I did rather see I-485 approvals upto Jan 2009 by end of FY2012 and cut-off dates move forward at start of FY 2013. What I am trying to say is I did rather see USCIS process existing applications swiftly in order to meet Visa numbers... this means we see real forward movement sooner and consistenly than if CO moves dates back & forth...

Gurus, is my worry unfounded?

I am not sure why you are worried. You should be worried if you miss the boat and are not able to file for AOS. Look at it this way, per your example say you will become eligible for GC in FY 2013. Would you rather dates become current and then retrogress so that you get EAD and or would you want to wait without EAD?

The only problem is if the dates move till May 2011 and then retrogress then yes you will be waiting for a long time since it would be similar to mini-2007 and dates will not move beyond May 2011 until everyone up to May 2011 get their GC.

[CleanSock]

Thank You immi2910

[CleanSock]

I think it really depends on individual situation whether one prefers getting an EAD soon (no matter afterwards if dates retrogress) or would rather wait to get GC (slow and steady movement of VB rather than a steep movement or making it current and then retrogressing). If a person is stuck with a bad employer, he would most probably prefer getting an EAD asap so that he can change the employer whereas, on the other hand, a person who is with a good employer and is really happy working there or let's say direct employee who has no intentions of leaving that firm even after getting a GC etc might rather prefer to wait for GC than just get an EAD and then face retrogression and looking at an unknown period of time before he becomes current again.

[kkruna]

Point of time when you get GC is independent of whether or not you got EAD quite early. Not sure why you would not prefer a fallback. Most employers are good till they are good; it's business.

I think it really depends on individual situation whether one prefers getting an EAD soon (no matter afterwards if dates retrogress) or would rather wait to get GC (slow and steady movement of VB rather than a steep movement or making it current and then retrogressing). If a person is stuck with a bad employer, he would most probably prefer getting an EAD asap so that he can change the employer whereas, on the other hand, a person who is with a good employer and is really happy working there or let's say direct employee who has no intentions of leaving that firm even after getting a GC etc might rather prefer to wait for GC than just get an EAD and then face retrogression and looking at an unknown period of time before he becomes current again.

[CleanSock]

It is nothing related to my case. I was just generalizing. Some people want EAD quickly because of various reasons like wanting to change employer etc.They may not worry as much about VB retrogressing as the first thing on their minds is getting an EAD whereas, others who are not in such a situation (relatively speaking), who don't have any plans to change employer etc don't care as much about getting EAD quickly or not as long as they get GC.
I know a person who doesn't even bother to follow the forums and is of thinking that it'll come whenever it has to come ( he has no plans of changing his employer and is quite happy working there). But then, this might be an isolated case. What i mean to say is, people like that are not so worried about getting EAD quickly (at least this guy).

I maybe wrong on this. Maybe people like that are very less in percentage.

[rockybaba]

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[narendarrao]

narendarrao,

I was rather hoping no one would ever, ever mention that Report!

[Start Rant]
It is so full of errors and shows such a complete lack of understanding of the system, that it is virtually useless. It is far more likely to confuse people.

More worryingly, it is published by the Congressional Research Service. The author, Ruth Ellen Wasem is described as Specialist in Immigration Policy.

How can Congress make informed decisions, if this is the !@#$ they have to rely on.
[End Rant]

For EB, USCIS approves around 90% of all cases each FY and it is their case load that will have the biggest impact on Cut Off Date movement for most EB Categories.

Thanks Spec.

This document was prepared in December 2011 and published some time in January 2012. I never had time to go through this one.

Today i was going through all the pdf's i had over the past year and was surprised to see this line. I have seen that Congressional Research Service has many other documents published over the years related immigration. So i wanted to make sure what i read is not correct.

[letheQ]

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

OH MY GOD. where did you get this. Dont say that you have written this . Its wonderful.

[rockybaba]

glad u enjoyed..

Original ????? Ofcourse not....!! I am an Indian, that's as original as it gets ofcourse.

Just google "Cow economics" for the many versions if u like to laugh a little longer..

Modifications ??? Ofcourse yes....!! We have mastered the art to "take it" and "run with it, and make it our own...haven't we?"

OH MY GOD. where did you get this. Dont say that you have written this . Its wonderful.

[narendarrao]

Hi,

How long does it take for a CP application to be processed from submitting the fees to going for an interview?

NVC receipts are being issued till some time in 2011.

If USCIS doesn't use the visas on time then DOS can use up all the visas left and process CP applications so that they don't waste any visas.
Dates have to be moved in order for these CP applicants to go for an interview.

How many CP applications did they process last year? I don't think we have so many applications after 2007 fiasco for CP.

Is it in the last quarter that DOS determines that visas are not being used up and should move the dates ahead. They might need some time too to forward applications to consulates. If so then we have to see the movement starting July.

Am i missing something here?

Thanks.

[longgcque]

hey rockybaba .. what a creativity .. made me laugh like anything .. Indian cows was too good .. pretty accurate ..

To lighten the mood...An important lesson in economics for all freshly minted Greencard holders and those awaiting their turn!!

A Cow based Economics Lesson:

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM
You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM
You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows.

The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an intermediary to a Cayman Island Company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company.

The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more.

You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States,leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull.

SURREALISM
You have two giraffes.The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

AN AMERICAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead.

A FRENCH CORPORATION
You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A JAPANESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide.

AN ITALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

A SWISS CORPORATION
You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

A CHINESE CORPORATION
You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment, and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

AN INDIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. You worship them. You leave them to your parents back in India, and go to America to milk the American cows. You continue your prayers to the Indian cows that your American Greencards get approved. The American cow drops dead and without a job, you invade trackitt and USCIS websites pleading your greencards as honest & Legal milkers. In the process you become good Cow Analysts better than the legals, paralegals at predicting and estimating greencard forward movements.

A BRITISH CORPORATION
You have two cows. Both are mad and you get the madcow disease

AN IRAQI CORPORATION
Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy.

AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION
You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office by lunchtime and go for a few beers to celebrate.

A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION
You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

[Spectator]

How many CP applications did they process last year?

narendarrao,

The figures for last year have not been published yet. EB2-IC have very low amounts of CP.

In FY2010 (the last year figures are available), CP accounted for 172 cases out of the 26,466 approvals for EB2-IC.

Possibly, the numbers post July 2007 are slightly higher, but they are not going to amount to large numbers.

As of November 1, 2011, NVC reported they had 4,758 cases (including dependents) for EB2-IC. That would cover the period from around mid 2007 to November 2011 (about 1k per PD year).

[skpanda]

This is the first time i am hearing about this. How can the company force you to pay the GC cost back if you quit? DO they ask you to sign a contract. Is this specific to Consulting companies? When do they inform employees about this arrangement?

My company (full time job) pays for me and my dependents GC process and there is no such agreement on recovering the cost if i quit post GC.

I had the exact same thing. Although my lawyers suggested we FedEx the copies rather than upload them. I guess they didn't want to spend money printing. My Firm gave us an indication that the complete GC process would be between 8 - 12K with a 18 or 24 month post GC stay. If I don't quit before that time, I don't think I'll even quit this company