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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #5251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    kd,

    I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

    I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

    I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

    Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

    The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

    It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

    At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

    On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

    As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

    An alternative view at least.
    IMO , KD did not mean to say that every who got current will get approved this year. He is just projecting a SOFAD of 30K for this year as well as projecting total number of Jan, Feb, Mar filers to be around 30 K.

    With OR of 0.8 we will get around 60k total application , around 55k for OR of 0.7 and 50k for 0.65 OR.

    Another unrelated thing - CM who have been very conservative all this time has become suddenly optimistic for whatever reason. Currently he is projecting Oct/Nov 2008 PD as GC in hand scenario. ( something we all will accept happily )

  2. #5252
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    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Spec...can you shed some light on the NVC reciept part....because before i assume any person who got there NVC reciepts were current with in one year from the time they paid fees....if the data is high, and SOFAD is going to be less...why are they sending NVC reciepts for so far date(may 2011).
    mesan,

    Personally, I think it is just a backstop so that cases can be processed quickly if USCIS don't hold up their end of the bargain. The problem is that CP represents such a small % of EB2-IC cases (only 1-2% in recent years). To generate any number of CP cases requires huge moves in the Cut Off Dates. For example, if a movement from May 01, 2010 to June 01, 2011 represented 30,000 cases, only 300-600 of those would be Consular Processed. If USCIS mess up and don't deliver the approvals, virtually no amount of Cut Off Date Movement can compensate, because the Consular numbers are so low in EB2. In contrast, the CP % in EB3 can be as high as 50%. Both Philippines and China can hit that amount, although it is around 15% for EB3-ROW.

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Thanks Spec. I can agree with what your understanding is. I just wanted to listen to your commentary about this document and correlation hence to your notes.
    Nishant,

    I can't make sense of it either. Everybody seems so optimistic, it almost seems my duty to be the pessimist.

    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    IMO , KD did not mean to say that every who got current will get approved this year. He is just projecting a SOFAD of 30K for this year as well as projecting total number of Jan, Feb, Mar filers to be around 30 K.

    With OR of 0.8 we will get around 60k total application , around 55k for OR of 0.7 and 50k for 0.65 OR.

    Another unrelated thing - CM who have been very conservative all this time has become suddenly optimistic for whatever reason. Currently he is projecting Oct/Nov 2008 PD as GC in hand scenario. ( something we all will accept happily )
    suninphx,

    That is exactly how I interpreted it. I think it was vizcard who misunderstood.

    My ballpark 60k was based on an OR of 0.7.

    IMO, CM's optimism may be based on a faulty calculation of OR for the best case from the Inventory (0.42). On the other hand, it is not entirely unrealistic for Cut Off Dates at the end the year to be that late, if there are lots of cases delayed by RFE.

    Unlike when all the cases were pre-adjudicated, waiting only for the Cut Off Date to move, not all 100% will become documentarily qualified in time within the FY. So the Cut Off Date could reach that late, but there will still be many with earlier PDs awaiting approval going into the next FY.
    Last edited by Spectator; 02-22-2012 at 09:40 PM.
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  3. #5253
    Thank you for the reply Spec...

  4. #5254
    Oracle pch053's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    thanks gcseeker and friends, I posted in post 485 filing thread this news. we can carry forth the party there
    Belated congratulations on this wonderful news; enjoy the approaching weekend!

  5. #5255
    Quote Originally Posted by pch053 View Post
    Belated congratulations on this wonderful news; enjoy the approaching weekend!
    Thanks Dr. Pch! Indeed waiting for weekend.
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  6. #5256
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    kd,

    I would agree your estimate for Jan-Mar filings of 30k is reasonable. That together with cases remaining at the start of the year, previous VB movement and Porting would mean about 60k total cases.

    I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.

    I do understand what you are saying about processing times, but if not checked it is a feed back loop. Too much resource on EB2-IC means less approvals for other Categories, which in turn means more EB2-IC cases need to be processed.

    Your scenario is also another reason to retrogress dates sooner rather than later. Feb VB filers have a very slim chance and March VB filers have zero chance of approvals this FY, even with the sort of level of SOFAD you mention.

    The Feb/March VB cases can be brought to pre-adjudicated status as time and resources permit in PD order. There is no overriding hurry to pre-adjudicate them, particularly the later dates, only to issue the EAD and AP.

    It is not going to be seen as acceptable if EB2-IC I-485 cases are adjudicated faster than other I-485 cases in Categories that are truly Current to the end of the year. When there were pre-adjudicated cases, it was reasonable, but now everyone is equal in that respect. EB1A and B candidates in particular might feel rightfully aggrieved, since their I-140 processing is glacial at best.

    At the same time that would ensure that the PD order for EB2-IC approvals is generally respected. USCIS may well do this absent retrogression anyway. Their approvals to date have shown a general trend to do that.

    On an unrelated note, I think USCIS must be increasingly worried about the number of EAD/AP renewals they will have to make for no income. We know it is a consideration, because CO has mentioned it. I think USCIS recent increase in production rate is an attempt to stop forward movement of the Cut Off Dates. It is certainly one of the reasons CO has given for continuing to do so.

    As for CO's musings on EB1, he pulled that trick last year. If USCIS have been feeding him figures as out of date as the last Inventory appears to be, it is no wonder he thinks filings are low. I'm not convinced USCIS has the capability to provide near real time numbers.

    An alternative view at least.
    Spec, thanks for explaining yourself so well.

    I'm not entirely sure where the amount of SOFAD you mention is going to come from. EB2-non IC is pretty much where it was last year at this time and EB5 is likely to use even more than the 3.5k it did last year. I don't think it is realistic to think EB1 would provide higher numbers than last year.
    You answered you own question. PERMs from Nov 2011 are just starting to get approved. So EB2ROW filings will go down as we move ahead into the year. If you check the I-485 inventory then the approvals for EB1 have been scant - I don't look at older years as they are too small, but recent years showed very little decrease esp. 2009 and 2010 numbers compared to Oct inventory. I don't believe the inventory can be wrong. It may be incomplete for recent months but not wrong. As for last year, I believe EB1 did deliver but EB2ROW surged with the fast PERM processing esp March-April 2011 which was on the cusp of the deadline whereby cases could be adjudicated in FY 2011 itself. June 2011 and later saw another surge which were consumed in FY 2012.

    More over, USCIS has to process I-485 in order of receipt. They may not have to adjudicate them in order of receipt but they have to process fingerprinting, EAD etc in order of receipt. This makes any EB cases filed after March go down bottom of the barrel.

    It is like everything giving a little away and it resulting in more and more likely that SOFAD increases little by little by the fact that nearly ALL cases filed in the second half of this fiscal year in general are going to have poor probability of being processed before the end of the fiscal year. More over, some 20 to 30% of cases linger for over 6 months with USCIS so USCIS actually needs larger pool of "approvable" cases. USCIS also needs a pipeline of cases for adjudication typically at least 4 months of processing. With EB3ROW likely to get current next fiscal year, there will be hopefully enough to do for the IOs.

    As for EB1 and EB2ROW guys being aggrieved about EB2IC folks getting approved quicker? I don't think anybody is going to take them seriously esp if their dates are current. Moreover, if USCIS is worried about processing enough cases esp. to consume EB2 then EB2IC offer easiest path with their already approved I-140s.

    The inventory that USCIS sits on is of little concern now to Mr. CO. It is solely their processing rate that matters. Mr. CO couldn't care less if USCIS has to renew EADs and APs. If he does not consume all the visas by the end of the year, he will have to face hell. Already, other websites and law firms have started work to address if this eventuality becomes reality - nothing is out in the open, but plans are being drawn. Folks have put up with it in the past. Not this time. Mr. CO has been repeatedly reminded of this in various meetings. So i think he will want to go into last quarter of the fiscal year with max insurance as possible.

    Will this result in more date movement for EB2IC? unlikely, but not impossible either. I think the quarter switch from second quarter to the third quarter that happens with April visa bulletin will be interesting to watch. It would be clearest reason for Mr. CO to change tracks but if he doesn't then it is clear that the pressure is on USCIS.
    Last edited by kd2008; 02-23-2012 at 07:05 AM.

  7. #5257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    suninphx,

    That is exactly how I interpreted it. I think it was vizcard who misunderstood.

    My ballpark 60k was based on an OR of 0.7.

    IMO, CM's optimism may be based on a faulty calculation of OR for the best case from the Inventory (0.42). On the other hand, it is not entirely unrealistic for Cut Off Dates at the end the year to be that late, if there are lots of cases delayed by RFE.

    Unlike when all the cases were pre-adjudicated, waiting only for the Cut Off Date to move, not all 100% will become documentarily qualified in time within the FY. So the Cut Off Date could reach that late, but there will still be many with earlier PDs awaiting approval going into the next FY.
    spec,

    Then point would be- what is the number USCIS comfortable with, carrying forward to next FY. No one knows that. If we go by last year's figure then we can assume that may be they are comfortable with 8k-10K getting carried into next year. So even with that if the cut off date is around Oct-Nov 2008, then at least I would be very happy. Not too long ago there were predictions here that Dec -Jan 08 being border line cases for approvals. Well, we already started seeing approvals for those PDs and I would not be surparised if we see some approvals from Jab and Feb VB cut off date PDs. (I very well understand that this does not mean every one with earlier PD got approved. )
    Last edited by suninphx; 02-22-2012 at 11:23 PM.

  8. #5258
    Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.
    If we look at the current intakes starting right from the PWMB cases in October to the last bulletin (01-MAY-2010) the intake is easily 40K. The OR (Perm to I485) would range from 0.7 – 0.8.
    Coming to the Jan inventory , for Nov filings which would have been in quite literally by that time the numbers for Dec and Jan filings seem to be unrealistically low, if that is true however then great. I still believe in my hypothesis that the dependent cases have not been properly accounted for due to the default data for the dependent A#’s. The truth is that the inventory possibly cannot be independently used for any analysis now because by the time the next inventory is released there will be a significant depletion due to approvals so there will never be a static stabilization point.
    The consumption ball park is 18K, we did count this around the end of last year it was already 11-12K and in the recent days most Oct filers a significant number of Nov filers and a few Dec filers have been approved. Now if we look at the consumption thus far and comparing with the 9% per month consumption per month model we are actually looking at huge SOFAD.
    At the beginning of the year the thought was that SOFAD will be lesser this year thanks to I140 acceleration and higher EB5 usage. The underlying thing I believe that USCIS is in fact approving every kind of case very fast there are several examples to show that EB1 and EB2 ROW cases are actually ahead of EBE I /C but however it looks like EB2 ROW is actually severely underperforming and more than compensating everything else. Also looks like EB1 demand is not all that high however it was kind of artificially pushed up by the high I140 approval rates we should not complain because we enjoyed the benefits last year but EB1 A & B has definitely stabilized. EB5 may have had high resurgence during Q1 this year but is still is expected to provide us with a minimum of 6K SOFAD just like the last year. The only category that is probably going higher is EB1-C the numbers on the data on Trackitt may be skewed because the data for this category is mostly India whereas in reality India normally uses 3K of the 20K EB1C usage, this is based on 50% of EB1 being EB1C and EB1 India being around 6K.
    Now coming to the final resting point for this year by Sep 2012 the way the current approvals are going on there is a very good chance that it will be closer to 01-JAN-2009 this date is just out of my gut feel. I would attribute higher SOFAD as the bigger reason for this than demand destruction, no denying that there is demand destruction the OR for argument sake is .75 however the SOFAD would well be closer to 35K as opposed to the initial estimate of 22K that’s a bigger factor than demand destruction.
    We also saw very interesting news of a May 2011 case getting a NVC notice this news is simply amazing it very much indicates that the next forward movement or intake would probably happen in Oct – Dec 2012 rather than Oct – Dec 2013; I believe the higher SOFAD is the key to make this happen. Those who missed in the Mar bulletin should not be disappointed because the next boat will arrive quite soon it will not take 4 years to arrive.
    Another thing that maybe working in favor of EB2 right now is lesser porting. With the passage of HR 3012 in the house many people either decided to put their porting plans on hold or decided to wait another 6 months. However as time is elapsing due to the senate deadlock people are reassessing in large numbers. Porting is not easy but people are waking up and realizing in large numbers now than ever before that it is the only way out if HR 3012 does not pass, it is almost like if you don’t do anything you are doomed if you try there is a chance if not a guarantee of success.
    Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 02-23-2012 at 12:29 AM.

  9. #5259
    Hello Guru's, This blog is just amazing. I logon multiple times a day.
    And now got a little bit confused given all the different scenarios.

    My PD is FEB-2009. I got current in Feb VB.
    My attorneys have filed I-485, I-131, I-765. Received Date = 10-FEB-2012.
    I think, looking at the trends, I can be certain that the EAD/AP will arrive in about 2 months.

    Any predictions when GC will arrive ? Will I get the GC in 2012 ?


    EB2-I | PD: Feb-2009 | Nebraska SC | RD: 10-Feb-2012 | FP: ? | EAD,AP: ? | GC: ?? |
    Last edited by EB2EB2; 02-23-2012 at 01:28 AM.

  10. #5260
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.
    If we look at the current intakes starting right from the PWMB cases in October to the last bulletin (01-MAY-2010) the intake is easily 40K. The OR (Perm to I485) would range from 0.7 – 0.8.
    Coming to the Jan inventory , for Nov filings which would have been in quite literally by that time the numbers for Dec and Jan filings seem to be unrealistically low, if that is true however then great. I still believe in my hypothesis that the dependent cases have not been properly accounted for due to the default data for the dependent A#’s. The truth is that the inventory possibly cannot be independently used for any analysis now because by the time the next inventory is released there will be a significant depletion due to approvals so there will never be a static stabilization point.
    The consumption ball park is 18K, we did count this around the end of last year it was already 11-12K and in the recent days most Oct filers a significant number of Nov filers and a few Dec filers have been approved. Now if we look at the consumption thus far and comparing with the 9% per month consumption per month model we are actually looking at huge SOFAD.
    At the beginning of the year the thought was that SOFAD will be lesser this year thanks to I140 acceleration and higher EB5 usage. The underlying thing I believe that USCIS is in fact approving every kind of case very fast there are several examples to show that EB1 and EB2 ROW cases are actually ahead of EBE I /C but however it looks like EB2 ROW is actually severely underperforming and more than compensating everything else. Also looks like EB1 demand is not all that high however it was kind of artificially pushed up by the high I140 approval rates we should not complain because we enjoyed the benefits last year but EB1 A & B has definitely stabilized. EB5 may have had high resurgence during Q1 this year but is still is expected to provide us with a minimum of 6K SOFAD just like the last year. The only category that is probably going higher is EB1-C the numbers on the data on Trackitt may be skewed because the data for this category is mostly India whereas in reality India normally uses 3K of the 20K EB1C usage, this is based on 50% of EB1 being EB1C and EB1 India being around 6K.
    Now coming to the final resting point for this year by Sep 2012 the way the current approvals are going on there is a very good chance that it will be closer to 01-JAN-2009 this date is just out of my gut feel. I would attribute higher SOFAD as the bigger reason for this than demand destruction, no denying that there is demand destruction the OR for argument sake is .75 however the SOFAD would well be closer to 35K as opposed to the initial estimate of 22K that’s a bigger factor than demand destruction.
    We also saw very interesting news of a May 2011 case getting a NVC notice this news is simply amazing it very much indicates that the next forward movement or intake would probably happen in Oct – Dec 2012 rather than Oct – Dec 2013; I believe the higher SOFAD is the key to make this happen. Those who missed in the Mar bulletin should not be disappointed because the next boat will arrive quite soon it will not take 4 years to arrive.
    Another thing that maybe working in favor of EB2 right now is lesser porting. With the passage of HR 3012 in the house many people either decided to put their porting plans on hold or decided to wait another 6 months. However as time is elapsing due to the senate deadlock people are reassessing in large numbers. Porting is not easy but people are waking up and realizing in large numbers now than ever before that it is the only way out if HR 3012 does not pass, it is almost like if you don’t do anything you are doomed if you try there is a chance if not a guarantee of success.
    The way Nvc is sending fees notices looks like dos is preparing for current for eb2 ic. What ever sofad is and even dos moved date so fast uscis is not catching up to supply.if for any reason they will not approve many cases now then towards end of the year 2009 and 2010 cases will get approved. I see repeat of summer of 2008 where 2006 cases got approved but not 03,04,05.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SC: TSC, PD:05Jan2008/EB2I, I140-30June2008, I485 mailed:02Dec2011, ND: 09DEC2011, FP Notice: 04Jan2012, FP Complete:? EAD/AP:03Feb2012,GC: 23Feb2012

  11. #5261
    I am expecting my PD to get GC in Q1FY2013 - I would guess the same for you. Although based on the recent discussions on USCIS not being able to process enough cases, there is a chance that a few Feb filers may squeak through if they have a clean, low-hanging-fruit application.

    About EAD/AP, NSC is currently in the range of 40-50 days for most applications, TSC a few days quicker.
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2EB2 View Post
    Hello Guru's, This blog is just amazing. I logon multiple times a day.
    And now got a little bit confused given all the different scenarios.

    My PD is FEB-2009. I got current in Feb VB.
    My attorneys have filed I-485, I-131, I-765. Received Date = 10-FEB-2012.
    I think, looking at the trends, I can be certain that the EAD/AP will arrive in about 2 months.

    Any predictions when GC will arrive ? Will I get the GC in 2012 ?


    EB2-I | PD: Feb-2009 | Nebraska SC | RD: 10-Feb-2012 | FP: ? | EAD,AP: ? | GC: ?? |
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  12. #5262
    They will not make it current. They may make it near-current but not actually current. I gather the reason is because they do not want EB2I filing for 140+485 concurrently, which you can only do if dates are current.
    Quote Originally Posted by gc_usa View Post
    The way Nvc is sending fees notices looks like dos is preparing for current for eb2 ic. What ever sofad is and even dos moved date so fast uscis is not catching up to supply.if for any reason they will not approve many cases now then towards end of the year 2009 and 2010 cases will get approved. I see repeat of summer of 2008 where 2006 cases got approved but not 03,04,05.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  13. #5263
    I am happy that we are back to talking about numbers again. Although we still do not have concrete data points to talk about since the inventory and demand data are both quite unreliable at this point.

    A SOFAD of 35K would be something! We knew that EB2ROW is weak this year - if it turns out that EB1 is not up from last year then yes 35K can be achieved. Perhaps that is what CO is seeing and that's why the mad rush to advance PDs and setting the stage for future PD hikes with NVC notices. I had earlier considered 01-Jan-2009 to be the "most-optimistic" estimate for the end-of-FY2012 PD - but it seems that might become more likely.
    Quote Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
    Good that after a long time that finally we are back at debating numbers once again.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  14. #5264
    There is very little chance of EB3ROW getting current anytime soon. EB3ROW will cross the 07/07 threshold next year - but there are a whole lot of unrecognized post-07/07 inventory lying around for EB3ROW to deal with after that. They may also have had demand destruction similar to EB2IC, but even with that several years will be needed to make a significant dent in EB3ROW, especially considering that EB3 does not get any SOFAD.
    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    ....
    With EB3ROW likely to get current next fiscal year, there will be hopefully enough to do for the IOs.
    ....
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  15. #5265
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    There is very little chance of EB3ROW getting current anytime soon. EB3ROW will cross the 07/07 threshold next year - but there are a whole lot of unrecognized post-07/07 inventory lying around for EB3ROW to deal with after that. They may also have had demand destruction similar to EB2IC, but even with that several years will be needed to make a significant dent in EB3ROW, especially considering that EB3 does not get any SOFAD.
    Sorry my bad. current as in past-july 07 and not "C". For folks who have been following this for many many years, getting past july 07 was a dream - as if getting current. It is a old usage and no longer applicable. Just shows how far we have come.

  16. #5266
    Quote Originally Posted by mbasense View Post
    just for understanding, why wouldn't they want concurrent filing?

    i have another somewhat unrelated query..

    my employer informed me that they won't pay the legal fees for the 485 filing for my wife..is that a normal practice or is it my employer playing cheap again? getting a little frustrated with their attitude...

    thanks as always
    This is my understanding.

    I will answer second one first. 485 stage is not the concern of the employer. Employer is only responsible for first two stages i.e, Labour and I-140. I-485 is the responsibility of the employee. It is up to the company if they want to bear the expenses and file for everyone, or only primary or none. My employer takes care of everything except medicals for dependents with a restriction. If i leave them before the mentioned time, I will have to pay all the expenses incurred for them on GC.

    Now the first one. USCIS has limited source of income and so have limited number of officers adjudicating the files. If filed concurrent, the resources are split to process these applications else they can use these officers atleast to process EAD and AP petitions. Already we are talking about USCIS not able to process I-485 in time and use all the visa numbers for GC and so DOS is sending notices to people in 2011.

    So i feel this is the reason, they don't want another head ache of applications to come in at this point of time.

  17. #5267
    Kanmani - you and I would be a good comparative case study for the relative effectiveness of TSC and NSC since we have such close PD and RD :-) Although I am expecting an RFE for BC and Flu Vaccine - so that may skew things later.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    imdeng
    Keep going. I like it
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  18. #5268
    Quote Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
    They will not make it current. They may make it near-current but not actually current. I gather the reason is because they do not want EB2I filing for 140+485 concurrently, which you can only do if dates are current.
    Imdeng,

    Can you pls elaborate the bolded statement in your quote? My understanding is one can file I140and 485 concurrenlty if his/her PD is current. So your argument on making it near-current and not actually current leading to less applicants filing concurrent 140&485 is only restricted to the number of applicants having PD between near-current and current, no?

  19. #5269
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    Does anyone know if there's a distribution analysis for the reasons for RFE ? My guess is the biggest one will be BC, next would be TB and the 3rd EVL?

    BTW, its been 3+ weeks since my RD but there's no change to the LUD (even soft) online. My guess is that this means lead times are going up even for EAD/AP. My FP date was also 3 weeks after my FP notice.

  20. #5270
    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Does anyone know if there's a distribution analysis for the reasons for RFE ? My guess is the biggest one will be BC, next would be TB and the 3rd EVL?

    BTW, its been 3+ weeks since my RD but there's no change to the LUD (even soft) online. My guess is that this means lead times are going up even for EAD/AP. My FP date was also 3 weeks after my FP notice.
    These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

    1. BC related
    2. Medical forms related
    3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
    4. EVL
    5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
    6. Bonafide marriage
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  21. #5271
    I don't know why this country is so obsessed with BCs

    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

    1. BC related
    2. Medical forms related
    3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
    4. EVL
    5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
    6. Bonafide marriage

  22. #5272
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    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    These are the offenders in order of amount of occurrences I am seeing:

    1. BC related
    2. Medical forms related
    3. Provide copy of last used I-94 to enter
    4. EVL
    5. Proof of status between particular date period(s)
    6. Bonafide marriage
    Thanks Nishant. I was doing a quick mental checklist to see if I had covered all bases. I think I have but there's always that one random thing that they will ask for.

  23. #5273
    The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

    please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

    Quote Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid View Post
    I don't know why this country is so obsessed with BCs

  24. #5274
    Thanks!

    My joke was about Obama's BC issue!

    Quote Originally Posted by sandeep11 View Post
    The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

    please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

  25. #5275


    Quote Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid View Post
    Thanks!

    My joke was about Obama's BC issue!
    Originally Posted by sandeep11
    The whole EB based GC is based on the country of chargebility...i.e place of birth.....and an official BC is the only document that they would need to determine your 'place of birth'

    please remember it is 'place of birth' and on the nationality........you could be an Indian but born in Nepal.....you wud be considered under ROW since your place of birth is Nepal.....

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