EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?

I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

[kd2008]

Teddy I think you are right there. But do you really believe withdrawal is a significant number?

Q, for EB1, EB2 ROW it would not be a significant number. But for EB2 C&I, yes it would be. Given a 5 yr time frame to get your GC, even with an initial filing in EB2, there is a significant chance that one would change their employers and retain old PD (kinda EB2 to EB2 porting). So I-140 may get withdrawn etc.

I was wondering if Veni and Spec can back test the data for us to know the exact amount. I guess the effect is captured in the multiplier effect from I-140 to I-485. EB2 multiplier is 1.9 I think and EB1 is more like 2.6 etc.

[mpurna77]

[QUOTE=03May07;2254]

This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.[/QUOTE]

Teddy don't say that.... My PD is 03 May 07. I missed July fiasco by few hours..got labor approved on Aug 17 2007 in the afternoon..and now again by few days?? I can't take it anymore!!

Q and other guys you are doing a great job on this forum..I left all the forums and just following yours everyday...infact every few hours... for the updates.

I am also in same boat nearly left all immi forums, following this forum and trackit.

Here my veryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy pessimistic view what if scenario,

if any EB2I guys miss their date this year, is they have to wait for another 2 yrs.
Expecting 20k/year spillover.

2002 5000
2003 12110
2004 14426
2005 8529
2006 10726
2007 4606

Total 55397

Hoping 2002 not porting...

Another 20-30% substitute labors

#s will be 37779. if out of all eligible candiates 75% port... its 28348....

If 28348 port being frustrated for years, down the line economy improves they find sources for EB2.

what about EB2I then....

Can you throw your thoughts behind this?

[suninphx]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

Agree with above.

Also can someone tell me whats avg denial rate at I140 stage?

Thanks

[ChampU]

Even though you posted a disclaimer of "verrryyy pessimistic scenario", there is noway that 75% of eligible candidates would port..
When the economy picks up, there definitely would be a rise in EB3-EB2 conversions, less spillover from other EB categories and that thing is something to worry about. But the rising economy also raises the hopes for some legislative relief.

Be positive!

My $0.02..

[tanu_75]

Tanu,

For someone like me who works in a finance domain, there is (A.) no sense of job security (B.) Switching jobs is as common as Charlie Sheen switching broads.. My employer wanted me to file for GC in Feb 2007 but I delayed.. guess what.. I have filed my GC through the same bank and have been passed on for a whole bunch of promotions/growth offers..
Long story short, I have dealt with my demons and have lived through the torture of being the dumbest SOB on the planet.. ..I have spoken at least thrice to Schumer's staffers when he was the torch bearer of the Immigration movement.. have been let down.. spoke to Menendez's staffers..All in the hopes of getting something that is just and something that I truly deserve..

After all efforts have run out, I have no other choice but be optimistic..

Amen to that and good luck. I'm around your PD and need that Kool-aid.

[veni001]

Veni thanks for the details, I have a quick question for you where do you feel are I140 Withdrawals by employers allocated on the dashboard. I can bet that probably 5-10% I140's are eventually withdrawn by employers on the whole this practice is being very consistently followed when somebody leaves the company. The dashboard even though we are using for calculations purpose is more intended for management reporting and if withdrawals are clubbed with completions it helps to show good performance. I what I am guessing is correct it could skew the projections in our favor withdrawals must be classified wither under denials which I doubt or completions. I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion only thing is that the impact to the employee is negative.

Teddy,
I believe USCIS dash board completions include all approvals,withdrawals(after RFE) and Denials. That is why when calculating projections we are taking only 80% of completions from the Dashboard as approvals!

On your questions regarding employers withdrawing i140 after employee leave the company, i do not think those requests are counted towards i140 receipts/completions. Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS due to fraud or misrepresentation one can easily capture that PD with a later (at new i140 stage) petition. So i don't think we need to worry about withdrawal request after i140 approval.

[happyboy]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

Teddy,

I am the best example for forfew of things here
1) Moved from contracting to full time. Even after moving to to FT as i maintained good relations with old consulting company they file my GC application as future employment. Six month after my old employer filed my gc my new company filed gc application.As far as i know i hold two I-140s.
2) Stucked with new employer even after getting new offerer at least 30% better pay
3) Missed 2007 july by two days as my labor went to Atlanta.
4) First labor with 2006 oct priority got denies because of they could't find Microsoft word which mentioned in the reuqirements in the day skills/activities in my profile.

[Gclongwait]

Q I think it maybe as high as 10% let me tell you why a) Typical consulting companies withdraw I140 as soon as the employee leaves b) People who have filed I140 but are yet to file 485's are leaving companies after 140 approval so that they can retain their dates C) This is especially common for people who are approaching their 6th year on H1 they try to reposition themselves. I know atleast 3 of my friends who have done that their PD's range from April 2008 to Feb 2009. These repeat applicants will be increasing both the perm and I140 figures. I believe that this figure is by no means small but there seems to be no good way to calculate it I think it should be fair to approximate this to 10% atleast. I feel the likelihood of it happening to folks belonging to retrogressed countries like India and China is more than ROW, however even ROW folks may be inclined to do it because sometimes good job offers are hard to resist and for then GC in EB2 is something that will happen in a year unlike us another variation of this could be that the old company does not withdraw the 140 but still one has to start all over again.

This is a really good point. I think it would be a big mistake to assume that everyone who is filing a 2nd Perm or I-140 is a porting case. I know atleast a few people in my own company who changed jobs and moved EB2 to EB2 and had to file 2nd Perm. EB2-EB2 could be a size able chunk (50%) of the multiple Perm and I-140 submissions for India.

The timeframe from I-140 approval to GC is 4+ years. Its very likely that many people will change jobs in this.

[veni001]

Q, for EB1, EB2 ROW it would not be a significant number. But for EB2 C&I, yes it would be. Given a 5 yr time frame to get your GC, even with an initial filing in EB2, there is a significant chance that one would change their employers and retain old PD (kinda EB2 to EB2 porting). So I-140 may get withdrawn etc.

I was wondering if Veni and Spec can back test the data for us to know the exact amount. I guess the effect is captured in the multiplier effect from I-140 to I-485. EB2 multiplier is 1.9 I think and EB1 is more like 2.6 etc.

kd2008,
Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS for fraud or misrepresentation, beneficiary can always capture old PD at new i140 stage. So this shouldn't affect our numbers!!

[veni001]

[QUOTE=mpurna77;2269]

I am also in same boat nearly left all immi forums, following this forum and trackit.

Here my veryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy pessimistic view what if scenario,

if any EB2I guys miss their date this year, is they have to wait for another 2 yrs.
Expecting 20k/year spillover.

2002 5000
2003 12110
2004 14426
2005 8529
2006 10726
2007 4606

Total 55397

Hoping 2002 not porting...

Another 20-30% substitute labors

#s will be 37779. if out of all eligible candiates 75% port... its 28348....

If 28348 port being frustrated for years, down the line economy improves they find sources for EB2.

what about EB2I then....

Can you throw your thoughts behind this?

mpurna77,
Please check post#1233 for worst case scenario calculations.

[mpurna77]

[QUOTE=veni001;2277]

mpurna77,
Please check post#1233 for worst case scenario calculations.

Veni,

Thank you nice explanation. Is that cause any movement in EB3 I too?

Is substitute labor EB3 eligible for Eb2 porting? I heard they not eligible.

Thank you.

[ChampU]

I have a general question about the spillover that comes in from Family Based GCs..
Is there a particular criterion/pattern for this spillover? Last year we received about 10k from FB, this year there wont be any from what I read. Is there any reason for this?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
I believe USCIS dash board completions include all approvals,withdrawals(after RFE) and Denials. That is why when calculating projections we are taking only 80% of completions from the Dashboard as approvals!

On your questions regarding employers withdrawing i140 after employee leave the company, i do not think those requests are counted towards i140 receipts/completions. Unless i140 is revoked by USCIS due to fraud or misrepresentation one can easily capture that PD with a later (at new i140 stage) petition. So i don't think we need to worry about withdrawal request after i140 approval.

Veni, I believe that if you are taking 80% as approvals then its pretty good. On another note I see you are now elevated to "GC-PANDIT" status Congrats.

This is a really good point. I think it would be a big mistake to assume that everyone who is filing a 2nd Perm or I-140 is a porting case. I know atleast a few people in my own company who changed jobs and moved EB2 to EB2 and had to file 2nd Perm. EB2-EB2 could be a size able chunk (50%) of the multiple Perm and I-140 submissions for India.

The timeframe from I-140 approval to GC is 4+ years. Its very likely that many people will change jobs in this.

You are right that these cases may be confused as porting (Eb3-Eb2).

Teddy,

I am the best example for forfew of things here
1) Moved from contracting to full time. Even after moving to to FT as i maintained good relations with old consulting company they file my GC application as future employment. Six month after my old employer filed my gc my new company filed gc application.As far as i know i hold two I-140s.
2) Stucked with new employer even after getting new offerer at least 30% better pay
3) Missed 2007 july by two days as my labor went to Atlanta.
4) First labor with 2006 oct priority got denies because of they could't find Microsoft word which mentioned in the reuqirements in the day skills/activities in my profile.

Good luck, hope you get to file for 485 and get grened soon.

[qesehmk]

ChampU that in fact is a totally abritrary thing. Just look in the past and you will see so many FB visas wasted within category as well as not spilled over to EB.

p.s. - Theoretically if EB or FB had leftover visas they are supposed to spill into the other category next year. But historically it rarely happened. Otherwise there never was a need for a recapture bill.

I have a general question about the spillover that comes in from Family Based GCs..
Is there a particular criterion/pattern for this spillover? Last year we received about 10k from FB, this year there wont be any from what I read. Is there any reason for this?

[ChampU]

Damn.. that sucks!!

Any stats around the number of visas wasted??

Idhar hum log 1-1 visa ka hisaab jod rahe hain aur udhar woh log aiyyashi kar rahe hain..
Its str8 from a 1980s hindi movie.. father tries to save every penny he can and the son makes visiting dance bars/mujra his daily habit..

[veni001]

Veni, I believe that if you are taking 80% as approvals then its pretty good. On another note I see you are now elevated to "GC-PANDIT" status Congrats.



You are right that these cases may be confused as porting (Eb3-Eb2).



Good luck, hope you get to file for 485 and get grened soon.

Q,
Yes, i was wondering about this new level!

[veni001]

[QUOTE=mpurna77;2278]

Veni,

Thank you nice explanation. Is that cause any movement in EB3 I too?

Is substitute labor EB3 eligible for Eb2 porting? I heard they not eligible.

Thank you.

mpurna77,
As that post stated it is a worst case Scenario! The chances of happening that is very minimal.
First: Any elevated level of EB3I-->EB2I porting will stagnate or even retrogress EB2I PD movement in a given year.
Second: Even at that rate of EB3I-->EB2I porting, EB3I may not see very significant movement, mainly due to no spillover to EB3I from any source and limited its annual quota of ~2,800 only.

[mpurna77]

[QUOTE=veni001;2285]

mpurna77,
As that post stated it is a worst case Scenario! The chances of happening that is very minimal.
First: Any elevated level of EB3I-->EB2I porting will stagnate or even retrogress EB2I PD movement in a given year.
Second: Even at that rate of EB3I-->EB2I porting, EB3I may not see very significant movement, mainly due to no spillover to EB3I from any source and limited its annual quota of ~2,800 only.

Is EB3 substitute labor eligible for Eb2 porting?

[veni001]

[QUOTE=mpurna77;2286]

Is EB3 substitute labor eligible for Eb2 porting?

mpurna77,
Irrespective of labor petition one can capture PD from an old approved i140 petition to new i140 petition as long as the old petition is not revoked by USCIS due to Fraud or misrepresentation! Which means the answer is YES.

[mpurna77]

If all these cases already pre-adjudicated, why they are taking so long to just allocate visa number and approve application ??.
They do any checks after your PD is current??

Is there any process again to allocate number?

[veni001]

If all these cases already pre-adjudicated, why they are taking so long to just allocate visa number and approve application ??.
They do any checks after your PD is current??

Is there any process again to allocate number?

The time depends on the number of VISAs available for a particular month(even when SOFAD applied) & USCIS work load, USCIS may have to do a final check before assigning a VISA numbers according to PD(from pre-adjudicated list). There may be instances where USCIS may have to request additional information(Example: Medical reports,since old one expired, employment verification in case of AC21 cases ...etc)

[qesehmk]

Yes .... we added a few ranks!! 200 is pandit, 500 is Guru. 100 is senior member and 30 is member.

Any suggestions for any other ranks?

Q,
Yes, i was wondering about this new level!

[veni001]

Yes .... we added a few ranks!! 200 is pandit, 500 is Guru. 100 is senior member and 30 is member.

Any suggestions for any other ranks?

I think we are good for now!

You are going to be Guru in few more days!