EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[mesan123]

but why are people getting NVC reciepts(like from Jan 2011 & Mar 2011 folks also). what i meant is incase USCIS picks up on cases and demand is shown...how would CO move the dates to MArch 2011.....because with best scenario the people getting GC will be from early 2009( very best scenario).

my point is will not the NVC reciepts be voided in one year???will that happen?

For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.

It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.

As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.

[Spectator]

For EB2IC I think I would agree with the forecast. But honestly I feel also fooled by CO since I never thought there would such kind of sustained continuous forward movement.

It is counterintuitive since it required two things we didn't assume : 1) Quarterly spillover 2) Slower than usual Pace of USCIS approvals.

As long as those 2 things are in still place - we will continue to see forward movement. The chances of #2 being in place is what is difficult and hence the date advance should come to a halt and even retro. Whether it happens this month or next is really secondary.

Q,

Nice to see a post from you. I realize you have been extremely busy lately.

I totally agree with you.

USCIS have shown that they can approval relatively large numbers recently. They didn't really have the opportunity to show that until now and approvals in a 3-4 month timescale is pretty good (amazing by USCIS standards).

In fact, if USCIS approve too many, too fast, they will likely outstrip the number of spillover visas available in a quarter. That would force CO to retrogress the Cut Off Dates.

Since April is the beginning of a new quarter, that seems unlikely for the April VB, but I won't be surprised if it happens in May, assuming USCIS continue at their recent pace.

[Transformer]

Experts, the one year time frame that Mesan said is applicable or not?..Can it take take greater than one year or should the dates have to move within one year?

One year is just an expectation and not guaranteed.

NVC notice expires in 1 year but if you paid the fee it never expires. So don't be surprised if someone with July 2011 recieves a NVC notice now but his dates are not current in next 2 years.

[vgraj1]

One year is just an expectation and not guaranteed.

NVC notice expires in 1 year but if you paid the fee it never expires. So don't be surprised if someone with July 2011 recieves a NVC notice now but his dates are not current in next 2 years.

What is the purpose of NVC issuing a notice if the dates are going to be current after two years or later?

[qesehmk]

if demand picks up then CO will be forced to slow down or retro because otherwise it creates the potential to not process visas in strict order of PD. Not that that is against any law that I know .... but that is a norm USCIS and DOS have followed.

As per why people are getting NVC notices .. I do not know. May be that's an indication that demand will not pick up and dates will continue to move forward.

Honestly none of us know EXACTLY what will happen. All we attempt to do is be as rational as possible with the information we have.

but why are people getting NVC reciepts(like from Jan 2011 & Mar 2011 folks also). what i meant is incase USCIS picks up on cases and demand is shown...how would CO move the dates to MArch 2011.....because with best scenario the people getting GC will be from early 2009( very best scenario).

my point is will not the NVC reciepts be voided in one year???will that happen?

Q,

Nice to see a post from you. I realize you have been extremely busy lately.

I totally agree with you.

USCIS have shown that they can approval relatively large numbers recently. They didn't really have the opportunity to show that until now and approvals in a 3-4 month timescale is pretty good (amazing by USCIS standards).

In fact, if USCIS approve too many, too fast, they will likely outstrip the number of spillover visas available in a quarter. That would force CO to retrogress the Cut Off Dates.

Since April is the beginning of a new quarter, that seems unlikely for the April VB, but I won't be surprised if it happens in May, assuming USCIS continue at their recent pace.

Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almosta monthly spillover).

[03May07]

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

[Spectator]

Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almost a monthly spillover).

Q,

I wasn't vey clear. I agree it is split into monthly allotments, per the description in the VO explanation.

I guess I was saying that CO might let it ride another month to ensure the USCIS production increase was sustainable through a relatively higher density period. Otherwise, he will have to consider doing something in the April VB itself.

Once he does stop forward movement, or retrogresses the dates, the chance of Cut Off Dates moving beyond the latest date reached so far, is zero for FY2012 because qualified demand becoming available will make that impossible.

[gc_usa]

if demand picks up then CO will be forced to slow down or retro because otherwise it creates the potential to not process visas in strict order of PD. Not that that is against any law that I know .... but that is a norm USCIS and DOS have followed.

As per why people are getting NVC notices .. I do not know. May be that's an indication that demand will not pick up and dates will continue to move forward.

Honestly none of us know EXACTLY what will happen. All we attempt to do is be as rational as possible with the information we have.




Spec .... yes if they approve too many too fast then that will outstrip quarterly supply. (p.s. Although I said quarterly spillover -I strongly suspect that CO is doing almosta monthly spillover).

My guess

USCIS will not be able to clear many app , we may have 30k spill over and they will not process that many EB2 IC application by Sep 2012 so DOS will allow NVC to process CP cases by making date current to EB2 IC. Now what if EB2 IC cp demand is not enough to consume spill over visas , it will go to EB3. Key thing to watch is not date movement but USCIS processing times. For DEC 2011 filers as of now its Sep 24th 2012 when they can eligible to open SR Jan 2012 filers won't be able to even open SR for TSC. I will not be surprised if NSC will do same soon.

Processing time will be key for future date movement till end of the year 2012 ( Sep 2012 )

[imdeng]

NVC receipts are very intriguing in the current setup. DOS had really absolutely no reason to send NVC fee notices to people in 2011 PD. In normal situation there is no way that they are likely to get a GC until FY2014. However, now that the fee notices have actually been sent, we must entertain the possibility that it is NOT a normal situation as far as DOS can see. It is possible that they are looking at USCIS processing rates and thinking that there is no way that USCIS will be able to process say 35K EB2IC visas they expect (hypothetically) to be available in FY2012. So they have decided to process as many CP cases as possible to help USCIS in not wasting any visas. Trouble is that as Spec's post a couple pages before showed, CP now makes a very tiny fraction of EB2IC - so they have to travel really far PD wise to get sufficient CP cases to bridge any shortfall USCIS may run into. The fee notices show the extent to which they are going to go.

So, my entirely non-analytical, gut-based prediction for April VB: EB2IC PD will NOT stall. It will continue to move in batches in every VB until either the PD catches up with NVC receipts or USCIS catches up with expected spillover numbers. USCIS is likely to catch up when they process a good bit of Jan filers - so until that happens - I would expect PD to keep moving in small batches.

[imdeng]

Congratulations! 15 years of living in a country without any (or much) legal rights - you did great to survive this long without EAD - now take a couple days off and enjoy the fruits of your patience and labor.

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

[fedupwithgc]

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

Congratulations buddy !!!.... you deserve to celebrate..

[imdeng]

I think DOS is concerned about USCIS's processing speed as well - however - there are 7 more months in this FY - more than enough time for USCIS to take a good bite out of Jan filers. Especially considering so many of Nov and Dec filers have been issued GC already (refer to Spec's trackitt analysis).

My guess

USCIS will not be able to clear many app , we may have 30k spill over and they will not process that many EB2 IC application by Sep 2012 so DOS will allow NVC to process CP cases by making date current to EB2 IC. Now what if EB2 IC cp demand is not enough to consume spill over visas , it will go to EB3. Key thing to watch is not date movement but USCIS processing times. For DEC 2011 filers as of now its Sep 24th 2012 when they can eligible to open SR Jan 2012 filers won't be able to even open SR for TSC. I will not be surprised if NSC will do same soon.

Processing time will be key for future date movement till end of the year 2012 ( Sep 2012 )

[just_curious]

So, my entirely non-analytical, gut-based prediction for April VB: EB2IC PD will NOT stall. It will continue to move in batches in every VB until either the PD catches up with NVC receipts or USCIS catches up with expected spillover numbers. USCIS is likely to catch up when they process a good bit of Jan filers - so until that happens - I would expect PD to keep moving in small batches.

I would agree with imdeng on this analysis... The upcoming demand data will also be one of the key thing for us

[zenmaster]

Many Congratulations 03May07 !!!
Thats a long time in US !
All the very best for your future

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

[Transformer]

What is the purpose of NVC issuing a notice if the dates are going to be current after two years or later?

One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.

Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.

Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.

I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.

[just_curious]

Yeah I have no clue on reasoning but having seen the receipts personally, wanted to share the news.

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?

[piratla]

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?

I believe NVC receipts are only meant for CP. So, to answer your question, YES. They must have opted for CP in their I-140.

[venkat]

Hello Gurus...Please go through the below question and let me what you think.

Beginning in the month of December people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between Nov 1st 2007 to March 14th 2008. Similarly,
Beginning in the month of January people would have started applying for 485 whose Priority Dates fall between March 15th to December 31st 2008.

As we know, we have already started seeing lot of 485 approvals for people who applied in December (ranging from November all the way to March). Say next month (i.e March) we start seeing approvals for people who filed in January. Again the approvals may be random i.e some whose PD is in April 2008 and others whose PD is in December 2008.

Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?

OR

Does DOS give USCIS an internal Priority Date and will ask them to approve only applicants before that date?

[vgraj1]

One of the goals of DOS is not to waste any visas. They rely heavily on USCIS to adjudicate enough applications. If USCIS doesn't process enough applications then PLAN B for DOS is to issue enough CP visas which are entirely in DOS control.

Based on the current trend if DOS thinks that USCIS is not asking for enough VISAS then they can issue NVC receipts for applicatns with later PD dates. In the last quarter or last few months if DOS doesn't see enough demand from USCIS, they can move the dates further or make current and grant CP visas. Remember, to issue GC thru CP, the dates have to be current.

Think of other scenario, where DOS issue the NVC notice (let's say July 2011) and by last quarter USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2008 and 2009, then DOS don't have to move the dates into 2011 to grant GC for CP. If USCIS process enough applications with PD in 2010 after few more months and there are let's say 50K pre adjudicated applications then DOS will not move the dates and July 2011 will not be current for 2 yrs.

I am just trying to explain how the process works and it is very unusual that dates waon't move (within 1 year) after NVC fee notice. Only happens if DOS is completely wrong with USCIS processing estimates. But it is possible.

Thanks for the explanation. I think DOS is moving dates cautiously this time unlike the July 2007 fiasco. So, we can assume that DOS is not completely wrong this time. I guess there is some insider information between DOS, NVC and USCIS which we are not aware of. No doubt we are in an unusual situation here where the PD for EB2I has moved so fast in few bulletins. My EB2I PD is 04/11 and few months back I forgot that there is something called EAD/GC since I felt it is going to take a very long time to get to the EAD stage. But last few bulletins have really been exciting! However, if the dates do move back to 2008, I will again forget that there is something called EAD/GC!

[suninphx]

thats a very good news... May be a lame question for you.. Did they opt for CP in their 140?

Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office

[mysati]

Got my Greencard in my hand finally!!

Came to US in 1997 on F1. Applied labor in 2007. Missed 485 filing by Half a day, as my Labor was approved at 1pm on Aug 17,2007I dont know if my GC journey is 14yrs or 4+ years.

After responding to my RFE for BC and MC, I got CPO mail in a 4 days and a week later I got my GC. Good luck to you all who are waiting..Thanks to this forum & Gurus(Q,Spec,Veni,Big T, Nishant, Soggadu,Kanmani, Monica12..etc) for Predictions. It kept me busy at work

Let me know if there are any discussion threads/forums like "Fighting your employer/main-vendor in court for non-payments".. (Main Vendor didnt pay employer for 5 months)

Congratulations! That's really a long wait...

[imdeng]

Yes. And/Or Smart enough to have a no-problem, easily-approvable, low-hanging-fruit application that could be approved in 3 months by USCIS.

Say after couple of months dates retrogress to July 2008. What would happen to those people whose 485s were approved who fell in the August to December time-frame. Does that mean that they are lucky?

[just_curious]

Yes..looks like it's a practice at their attorny's office

thank you Suninphx and Piratla!!

[kkruna]

I have a feeling that they are looking at data which is very different from what we reckon in terms of demand. When we cannot understand a situation, we either have different perspective or we are missing a link somewhere. A small movement in Trackitt ratio can change the numbers substantially. We have based it on historical average but proportion of population entering their data on Trackitt depends on so many aspects.

As for USCIS "slow speed", the only way to compensate it through CP would be to really stretch the dates to the extent of making it current. For last resort, EB3 is there with ready processed cases to pickup any shortfall if even CP does not help sufficiently.

[mysati]

I have a basic question. I think we are all thinking here from the perspective of EB2-I/C in trying to understand why they are issuing NVC notices for PDs in 2011. Assuming USCIS processing takes several months for the recent filers, whether EB2 or any other category, come Aug/Sep 2012 if there are not enough documentarily qualified EB2s on file to issue the visa numbers, wouldn't it automatically spillover to EB3? Even with porting, I am sure that there are enough documentarily qualified EB3s before 2007 who can benefit from the spillover and the visas will definitely not be wasted.

So could there be any other rationale for CO moving the dates (maybe preparing for HR 3012 or anything else that most of us are not privy to)?