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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #5076
    Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:

    "
    My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."

    Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....


    Quote Originally Posted by vizcard View Post
    Can I ask what your specific PD is? My brother is also in Sept 2010 and I think he's around the 15th or 20th.
    Category: EB2-I PD: 11/29/2010 I-485 RD: 10/28/2020 ND: 12/05/2020 EAD/AP RD: 12/24/2020 FP: 03/30/2021

  2. #5077
    If this is correct good thing. For sure most of us will be current in one year at the least or with in few months . hoping this post is true...

    Quote Originally Posted by feedmyback View Post
    Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:

    "
    My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."

    Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....

  3. #5078
    I really hope this is true. My PD is also Jan 20, 2011...

    Quote Originally Posted by feedmyback View Post
    Someone with PD in Jan 2011 just posted on trackitt that they received NVC fee receipt.... Here is the message copied from trackitt "April VB Predictions" thread:

    "
    My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin."

    Looks like the info is correct as he copy pasted the full content of fee receipt.....

  4. #5079
    Is it that they are getting ready for eventuality wherein USCIS does not process enough GC, and the CP covers the gap? In that case, the dates should jump in June Visa Bulletin to allow 3 months for CP. The ensuing rush of files at USCIS would then simply be filed away but there would still be workload for EAD.

    USCIS already has enough inventory so moving dates in April and May VB does not help except for, as I said, making available more 'low hanging fruits'.

    Quote Originally Posted by AT2011 View Post
    I really hope this is true. My PD is also Jan 20, 2011...

  5. #5080
    Actually the dates may move in April and May bulletion too...As if CP cases need 3 months to process...and Jan 2011 date is almost 9 months away from current cutoff date.. but what ever the reason....once a person gets NVC reciept, his date should be current with in one year...GURU's can correct me if my assumption is wrong..

    There is going to be moments in next months...when that is , i dont know....but i am assuming they should move early, if not there will be much inventory available as all the cases( who already applied) will ripe in 3 months for sure....

    GURU"S can you let us know what your take is on this reciept...i meant by this reciept dates when do you think the dates could be current..

    Quote Originally Posted by kkruna View Post
    Is it that they are getting ready for eventuality wherein USCIS does not process enough GC, and the CP covers the gap? In that case, the dates should jump in June Visa Bulletin to allow 3 months for CP. The ensuing rush of files at USCIS would then simply be filed away but there would still be workload for EAD.

    USCIS already has enough inventory so moving dates in April and May VB does not help except for, as I said, making available more 'low hanging fruits'.

  6. #5081
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    PERM Fact Sheet for FY2012 published today. Contains YTD information for FY2012.

    http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...t_Jan_2012.pdf
    Jonty,

    Thanks for posting.

    Compared to the fact sheet for the end of Q1 OFLC seem to have processed about the same number of cases in a month (about 4k), as they did in Q1 (12.4k).

    It is not a particularly good production rate.

    Maybe this is the continuing effect of the PWD gap last year, which didn't get back to normal until recently.

    They seem to have spent the time processing Audit cases, since the processing time has reduced a month more than expected and the % has reduced from 33% to 26% (a 20% reduction). That probably also explains the increased % of Denied applications, compared to Q1.

    Normal case processing time has increased one month and the % has increased from 50% to 60%.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #5082

    Question

    Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.

    Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.

    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    Actually the dates may move in April and May bulletion too...As if CP cases need 3 months to process...and Jan 2011 date is almost 9 months away from current cutoff date.. but what ever the reason....once a person gets NVC reciept, his date should be current with in one year...GURU's can correct me if my assumption is wrong..

    There is going to be moments in next months...when that is , i dont know....but i am assuming they should move early, if not there will be much inventory available as all the cases( who already applied) will ripe in 3 months for sure....

    GURU"S can you let us know what your take is on this reciept...i meant by this reciept dates when do you think the dates could be current..
    I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.

  8. #5083
    Quote Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
    Mostly correct. Dates need not be current for CP pre processing, but need to be current for and when Consulate schedules interview, which is the time actual PR is granted.

    Vested interest: seems like dates gonna be current for my precious 11/8/2007 for a good period of time. Oh God yes please.
    Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

    Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

  9. #5084
    Kanmani & nishanth

    When do you think the dates will move....based on NVC reciepts and with your previous experience's..

    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

    Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

  10. #5085
    Mesan ,
    My personal opinion is dates will move further in a pattern grouping the applicants into batches.

  11. #5086
    DOL PERM approval rate is approx 10K PERMs for Quarter, 10% are refiling (porting, change of employer) and Any body guess is 40% are india & china

    ROW 5K translates @2 I-485's per PERM max I-485 demand is 10K.
    with 1-140 rejection & other reasons another 10% less makes it demand for ROW in ALL PERM cases is 9K/Quarter.

    current years trend for ROW demand is 36K ( for EB2 & Eb3), if 2/3 are EB2 row demand is 24K with spillover EB2 gets ~48K to 52K. we continue to expect 24K+ visas for China & India.

    EB3 ROW once it moves post-2007, then movement gains momentum above data indicates max 12K to 15K /per year during recession. By next year this time EB3 ROW may experience what EB2 India & China is experiencing now.

    Fag not cleared yet for EB3 India, if no change & demand continue like this probably in another 2 years EB2 India & china, EB3 ROW will be current then EB3 india will get benefit. OR NEED SOME LAW CHANGE TO SPILLOVER OR COUNTRY QUOTA OR RECAPTURE..................

  12. #5087
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    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    My PD is Sep 30 EB2 I
    Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?

    Just looking for ways to get current..

  13. #5088
    NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......

    Quote Originally Posted by rasknorr View Post
    Mine is Sep 2,10. Previously (before the March VB) some said in this thread his PD is some where in Jun, 2010 and he got in NVP notice and the dates are moved till end of Apr, 2010. So, based on that do we expect any forward movement of 5 more months?

    Just looking for ways to get current..

  14. #5089
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    Quote Originally Posted by mesan123 View Post
    NVC reciepts doesnot gaurentee being current next month....it can be anytime in next one year......
    Thanks, that explains me not to too happy
    regards

  15. #5090
    Yoda
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    I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Nishant, even in the case of CP, it looks like actual PR is granted when the applicant is inside USA . The Consulate requests DOS for visa number in the first place and then schedules the interview, once the interview is done they stamp the passport with Immigrant visa which is valid for only 6 months. Later they send a sealed package ( just like medicals) to the applicant, which in turn must be handed over to the immigration officer at the airport .

    Later the GC is sent to the US address within a month.

  16. #5091
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    I can second Kanmani's views on this. I have family who have come here on GC they got Immigrant visa stamped and the GCs are actually delivered to the US address a month afte they landed here. Also they have to be in US within the 6 months time frame from the date the passports are stamped for Immigrant visa at the CP.
    Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

    Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SC: TSC, PD:05Jan2008/EB2I, I140-30June2008, I485 mailed:02Dec2011, ND: 09DEC2011, FP Notice: 04Jan2012, FP Complete:? EAD/AP:03Feb2012,GC: 23Feb2012

  17. #5092
    I agree with Gc_usa on this...my friend also got the visa through CP....he priority date was late 2006...sh got it stamped last year may. what she informed me is it is just the green card will be sent to US address, but her stamping did mention it Permanent resident. She also explained me what GC_USa told.

    Quote Originally Posted by gc_usa View Post
    Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

    Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.

  18. #5093
    Quote Originally Posted by gc_usa View Post
    Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

    Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
    gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
    Step 1 - Visa number assigned
    Step 2 - Interview
    Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
    Step 4 - GC
    Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.

  19. #5094
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    Quote Originally Posted by gc_usa View Post
    Kanmani is wrong on this one. Visa is allocated when it was stamped in passport. They just don't want to print green card and ship to abroad and can be misused , Even in AOS once you get email that AOS is approved you can get same stamp in passport from nearest office. If what kanmani said is the case then they have to send back people if they were issued visas when date was current and later it retrogress. F4 category and F2A category move back and forth 2-4 years and it can create disaster on ICE to deport or send back thousands of immigrants who got legal visas from consulate.

    Bottom line , once AOS or CP is approved , visa is allocated.
    Kanmani is correct.

    The procedures are different for CP and AOS.

    For AOS, the Visa number is requested and allocated against available numbers at the point of approval, so the PD must be Current at that time for an approval to take place and for the number of available Visas to decrease by one.

    For CP, the Visa number is requested against available numbers at the time the interview is scheduled. The PD need only be Current at that time and the number of available visas reduces by one.

    Even if the dates retrogress between that time and before the interview takes place, the Visa is still available to be allocated if the case is approved at interview.

    Upon being granted a Visa at the Consulate, the applicant has 6 months to activate it by presenting themselves as an immigrant at a POE.

    In doing so, they become an LPR immediately the immigrant package is processed at the POE and they are admitted into the USA in immigrant status (LPR).

    The GC, (I-551) in either case, is only proof of LPR status and a temporary I-551 stamp is placed in the passport of a successful CP applicant at the POE to cover the period until the GC is delivered.

    It is no different from being granted an H1B non-immigrant visa at a Consulate. Until you present yourself at a POE and are admitted, you do not hold H1B non-immigrant status.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  20. #5095
    If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

    Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?

  21. #5096
    Yeap...i understood it wrongly...thanks for explaining....

    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    gc_usa, you misunderstood my phrase. I said,
    Step 1 - Visa number assigned
    Step 2 - Interview
    Step 3 - Immigrant stamp
    Step 4 - GC
    Nowhere I said people would be sent back if date retrogresses. Once visa number is assigned there is no room to fear for retrogression. That is the plus point in CP Vs AOS.

  22. #5097
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    Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)

  23. #5098
    The disadvantages are, We can't apply for EAD/AP . When the applicant is already in US , he/she can't go back and forth to get local police clearance, local medical examination etc..

    Quote Originally Posted by khushraho View Post
    If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

    Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?
    Last edited by Kanmani; 02-17-2012 at 01:24 PM.

  24. #5099
    Quote Originally Posted by khushraho View Post
    If CP is really good in this time of retrogressions why do attorneys prefer AOS?

    Any potential disadvantage for Cp other than that visit to home country?
    485+180 days job change rule is not applicable for CP is my understanding. Correct me if I am wrong here.

  25. #5100
    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    Can some one tell me whats fees for I485 and I131 for a minor child (need this info for a friend)
    http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00b92ca60aRCRD

    Above link has the filing fee info. Under 14 filing with at least one parent $635 , if not $985.
    131 if filed with 485 has no fee.
    TSC || PD: Apr-2008 || RD: 17-Jan-2012 || FP: 27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened

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