EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[srividya]

No Demand data means no March Visa Bulletin Today?

[vishnu]

probably right...

[rasknorr]

No Demand data means no March Visa Bulletin Today?

Ok then this week end we will be getting more info / analysis from gurus.. ...

[nostwal]

My priority date is 12.30.2008. So
With this inventory data out when do we expect our green card in hand.

Thanks

[Spectator]

I said a long time ago that I was not sure how useful the Jan 2012 USCIS Inventory would be and I still feel this is the case.

We do not know how long it takes USCIS to add a case to the Inventory, or the process to do so. Not all receipts are necessarily eligible, so there must be a screening process.

In fact, there is such a large drop in the ratio for PDs of November onwards (i.e. December VB onwards), that I am suspicious it is may be rather a long process to capture all the cases that have been received.

For instance, it seems entirely plausible that NSC are more efficient than TSC (and TSC processes most of the EB cases) - who knows.

I do know that the data doesn't entirely add up, so I would beware of jumping to conclusions too early.

[bee369]

When do u guys think bulletin coming next week, Friday or any chance of earlier

[tanu_75]

In fact, there is such a large drop in the ratio for PDs of November onwards (i.e. December VB onwards), that I am suspicious it is may be rather a long process to capture all the cases that have been received.

For instance, it seems entirely plausible that NSC are more efficient than TSC (and TSC processes most of the EB cases) - who knows.

I do know that the data doesn't entirely add up, so I would beware of jumping to conclusions too early.

Nice pick and good point Spec. I think you're right, this may not even represent total receipts and may need some more time for the data to be 'seasoned'.

[evoori]

EB2 India

145
124
147
300
498
714

--- Nov Bulletin --
974
936
1,120
1,361

--- Dec Bulletin --
689
597

727
742
(443) / 2

--- Jan Bulletin --
(443) / 2
217
248
204
196
182
162
210
156
214

--- Feb Bulletin --
34

Looks like average 1100 for Nov, 700 for Dec and 200 for Jan bulletin.

It clearly says that they have not added all the receipt into inventory yet..

[TeddyKoochu]

I said a long time ago that I was not sure how useful the Jan 2012 USCIS Inventory would be and I still feel this is the case.

We do not know how long it takes USCIS to add a case to the Inventory, or the process to do so. Not all receipts are necessarily eligible, so there must be a screening process.

In fact, there is such a large drop in the ratio for PDs of November onwards (i.e. December VB onwards), that I am suspicious it is may be rather a long process to capture all the cases that have been received.

For instance, it seems entirely plausible that NSC are more efficient than TSC (and TSC processes most of the EB cases) - who knows.

I do know that the data doesn't entirely add up, so I would beware of jumping to conclusions too early.

Spec great thoughts, I have a theory on which I could be entirely wrong but it could well be the gap in the inventory. This is just my own theory which kind of struck me I may be entirely wrong.
- Most of us who have filed now have had issues with the dependent PD printed on the receipt notices. Some saw blanks and some saw the RD, this could be a translation for no value.
- Every individual is identified uniquely by A# in the system, while the primary applicants A# is old and has the correct PD associated with it because this A# is associated with the i140.
- It appears that the process when an application arrives is to create receipt notices and generate A# for new applicants dependents in this case.
- Now the inventory is generated it is nothing but a grouping of individuals by country, category and PD, since the dependent case A#'s have incomplete information they are not coming up on this extract at all.
- Now if this theory is true the quality of data should go bad progressively, Nov filer’s data does show and OR of 0.7 while Dec is much lower.
- Now here is another catch some Jan filers are in the inventory if this theory is true the primary applicants went straight to the inventory.
- Another thing is that the publication date is Jan 12th it does not mean that the report itself was extracted on the 12th, the data may have come from sometime earlier.
- Iam not sure when the A# information should be corrected, most Nov filers have received EAD, while Dec filers are in process, so Nov data is closer to being correct while Dec is still work in progress.
- Let’s see what is the real truth, unfortunately if the inventory is not true the next one may not also give the full information because approvals are constantly happening.
- My own range of OR (Perm to I485) has been from 0.8 to 1 it looks like the true value may come closer to .70 - .75.
- If the inventory is correct then our friend Suninphx who is truly the original proponent of the demand destruction theory and concept, its game set and match to you, hats off to you, on a lighter note since the numbers are so drastic everything off to you .
- Now if CO looks at these kind of numbers Iam sure his knee jerk reaction would be to drastically move the dates forward, so forward movement chances seem to be really bright.
- The final resting point this year will be determined more by the rise in EB1 v/s fall in EB2 ROW, EB1 inventory is high let’s see what happens. Since QSP is happening and the reports point to 9% completion every month numbers once given to Eb2 I/C are kind of a done deal, CO is going by monthly completions and implicitly he will satisfy the annual numbers.
Let’s hope for the best hope we see some guidance on the inventory. The demand data if published this time will be interesting.

[kd2008]

Teddy that is a very good explanation and a quite pausible one. I personally do not like the fact that USCIS cannot provide us with quality data. There is always something or the other that leads us to question the veracity of the data. It is what it is.

[Spectator]

Teddy,

A well thought out post as always. That is an interesting and plausible theory.

The final resting place for the year (I think you mean who will receive approval) may well also be influenced by the level of RFEs. That would push the date forward from where it might otherwise lie.

kd,

USCIS have always been so economical with the truth, their figures always need to taken with a pinch of salt and deserve extra scrutiny.

Look at how EB3-ROW numbers have changed, relative to the visas received. Clearly there are far more applications in the USCIS world than they are reporting.

[nishant2200]

USCIS is going to have a bonanza with RFEs galore for birth certificates!

Teddy,

A well thought out post as always. That is an interesting and plausible theory.

The final resting place for the year (I think you mean who will receive approval) may well also be influenced by the level of RFEs. That would push the date forward from where it might otherwise lie.

kd,

USCIS have always been so economical with the truth, their figures always need to taken with a pinch of salt and deserve extra scrutiny.

Look at how EB3-ROW numbers have changed, relative to the visas received. Clearly there are far more applications in the USCIS world than they are reporting.

[suninphx]

If the inventory is correct then our friend Suninphx who is truly the original proponent of the demand destruction theory and concept, its game set and match to you, hats off to you, on a lighter note since the numbers are so drastic everything off to you .

Teddy,

Thanks for kind words. So nice of you. I was just sharing what I saw around that time but you guys translated those thoughts to real numbers and that's what matters the most. And besides me there were certainly more people who shared same sentiment. I know for sure that Kanmani always had similar thoughts based on her experiences.

If I could contribute even 0.1% to cause of this site that would be achievement for me.

While I still believe there is certainly demand destruction, inventory is showing much more lower numbers than I was expecting. Something is surely not correct there.But these numbers make me more comfortable now with my original projection of ~50K applications by end of 2009. (Kanmani has more aggressive numbers and I hope that turns out to be true .

As for your new theory - does any one know after how many months inventory numbers got stabilized post Jul 2007? May be that will give some direction.

[kd2008]

Guys and gals,

I need your help in deciphering how many EB I-485s did USCIS process last fiscal year excluding the pre-adjudicated ones.

Have a look at http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...eData_FY11.pdf

123K out of 140K approved by USCIS, rest are CP.
EB2IC + EB3 were nearly all preadjudicated. I am placing that number somewhere around 60K (30K for EB2IC + 30K for EB3)

So it is possible that USCIS processed about 60K to 65K EB I-485s from scratch. This year that number has to be close to 80K to 90K (as there are no preadjudicated EB2IC left)

Are my estimates making sense? If so, that is lot to ask of USCIS. Let us see what happens. In case this analysis has been previously done please let me know.

Thanks

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Thanks for kind words. So nice of you. I was just sharing what I saw around that time but you guys translated those thoughts to real numbers and that's what matters the most. And besides me there were certainly more people who shared same sentiment. I know for sure that Kanmani always had similar thoughts based on her experiences.

If I could contribute even 0.1% to cause of this site that would be achievement for me.

While I still believe there is certainly demand destruction, inventory is showing much more lower numbers than I was expecting. Something is surely not correct there.But these numbers make me more comfortable now with my original projection of ~50K applications by end of 2009. (Kanmani has more aggressive numbers and I hope that turns out to be true .

As for your new theory - does any one know after how many months inventory numbers got stabilized post Jul 2007? May be that will give some direction.

Sun thanks, all credit to everyone who contributed including Kanmani, the purpose of this site is to bring clarity to everyone and the discussion is certainly helping in a very constructive way. We both kind of agree on demand destruction but our quantification is different my belief is 0.8 - 1 while I believe yours has been around .7 the Nov filers data is in fact closer to 0.7. I hope the facts prevail if the inventory is correct it’s great news for EB2 I/C if not we will know in a few months. Like you even I was expecting higher numbers for Jan 2008 which is the top month for perms.

The Jul 2007 fiasco was in fact the prime mover for the Inventory process; the first inventory was published couple of years after the Jul 2007 fiasco so would have been stable by then. Many have pointed out here that the EB3 ROW inventory reduced by just 3K in 3 months that’s another example of a big anomaly.

[suninphx]

Sun thanks, all credit to everyone who contributed including Kanmani, the purpose of this site is to bring clarity to everyone and the discussion is certainly helping in a very constructive way. We both kind of agree on demand destruction but our quantification is different my belief is 0.8 - 1 while I believe yours has been around .7 the Nov filers data is in fact closer to 0.7. I hope the facts prevail if the inventory is correct it’s great news for EB2 I/C if not we will know in a few months. Like you even I was expecting higher numbers for Jan 2008 which is the top month for perms.

The Jul 2007 fiasco was in fact the prime mover for the Inventory process; the first inventory was published couple of years after the Jul 2007 fiasco so would have been stable by then. Many have pointed out here that the EB3 ROW inventory reduced by just 3K in 3 months that’s another example of a big anomaly.

That's true Jan 2008 has ~2900 PERMS. My theory is if we take standard processing times for PERM around Jan 2008 then by the time these PERMS were approved and were eligible for I140 stage we were well into recession. Based on what I have seen it was not easy to find a new job till May/Jun 2009 even for IT professional.(arguably least affected by recession). That's the reason 2008 data is going to be very interesting. Lets wait and watch.

[kd2008]

Spec great thoughts, I have a theory on which I could be entirely wrong but it could well be the gap in the inventory. This is just my own theory which kind of struck me I may be entirely wrong.
- Most of us who have filed now have had issues with the dependent PD printed on the receipt notices. Some saw blanks and some saw the RD, this could be a translation for no value.
- Every individual is identified uniquely by A# in the system, while the primary applicants A# is old and has the correct PD associated with it because this A# is associated with the i140.
- It appears that the process when an application arrives is to create receipt notices and generate A# for new applicants dependents in this case.
- Now the inventory is generated it is nothing but a grouping of individuals by country, category and PD, since the dependent case A#'s have incomplete information they are not coming up on this extract at all.
- Now if this theory is true the quality of data should go bad progressively, Nov filer’s data does show and OR of 0.7 while Dec is much lower.
- Now here is another catch some Jan filers are in the inventory if this theory is true the primary applicants went straight to the inventory.
- Another thing is that the publication date is Jan 12th it does not mean that the report itself was extracted on the 12th, the data may have come from sometime earlier.
- Iam not sure when the A# information should be corrected, most Nov filers have received EAD, while Dec filers are in process, so Nov data is closer to being correct while Dec is still work in progress.
- Let’s see what is the real truth, unfortunately if the inventory is not true the next one may not also give the full information because approvals are constantly happening.
- My own range of OR (Perm to I485) has been from 0.8 to 1 it looks like the true value may come closer to .70 - .75.
- If the inventory is correct then our friend Suninphx who is truly the original proponent of the demand destruction theory and concept, its game set and match to you, hats off to you, on a lighter note since the numbers are so drastic everything off to you .
- Now if CO looks at these kind of numbers Iam sure his knee jerk reaction would be to drastically move the dates forward, so forward movement chances seem to be really bright.
- The final resting point this year will be determined more by the rise in EB1 v/s fall in EB2 ROW, EB1 inventory is high let’s see what happens. Since QSP is happening and the reports point to 9% completion every month numbers once given to Eb2 I/C are kind of a done deal, CO is going by monthly completions and implicitly he will satisfy the annual numbers.
Let’s hope for the best hope we see some guidance on the inventory. The demand data if published this time will be interesting.

Teddy, I looked at the tables for EB1-ROW, EB1-I, EB1-C, EB2-ROW in the inventory and all of them show a sharp drop in Dec 2011 compared to Nov 2011. So your theory gets a boost. I would say it moves it from pausible to possible.

[Kanmani]

Teddy and Sun Thanks for mentioning me. Sun it was you, one who sown the demand destruction seed in to the field.

I agree with all that this is not a complete inventory and I have already mentioned that Oct 2011 is also imperfect.

The sudden difference in Eb3 inventory may be due to the slow removal of porting cases after physically verfying them. This was mentioned somwhere in the ombudman report .

Sun I still have my own numbers which are lower compared to S&T's ( sorry guys) currently backed up by the low I-140 numbers . With my theory there is a possibility that 2009ers will start getting their GC by next year this time :-)

[Spectator]

Just a quick post to show where we are with Primary Applicant filings in EB2-I since October 2011 based on Trackitt.

PDs from ------- Approved -- Filed -- % Approved
FY2011 ---------------- 7 ----- 26 ------- 26.92
October VB ----------- 35 ---- 115 ------- 30.43
November VB ---------- 26 ---- 334 -------- 7.78
December VB ----------- 1 ---- 358 -------- 0.28
January VB ------------ 0 ---- 333 -------- 0.00
February VB ----------- 0 ----- 49 -------- 0.00

ALL ----- ------------ 69 -- 1,215 -------- 5.68

Approvals beyond July 2007

August 2007 ----- 6
September 2007 -- 9
October 2007 ---- 9
November 2007 --- 0
December 2007 --- 0
January 2008 ---- 1

Total ---------- 25

I hope the numbers put where we are into perspective.

[imdeng]

KD - I am not commenting on the numbers you are reporting - but my opinion is that USCIS handles applications of different types that total to several millions every year - a difference of even a few hundred thousands in EB2 I-485 applications is not going to make too much of a material difference to USCIS.

So it is possible that USCIS processed about 60K to 65K EB I-485s from scratch. This year that number has to be close to 80K to 90K (as there are no preadjudicated EB2IC left)

Are my estimates making sense? If so, that is lot to ask of USCIS. Let us see what happens. In case this analysis has been previously done please let me know.

Thanks

[Spectator]

KD - I am not commenting on the numbers you are reporting - but my opinion is that USCIS handles applications of different types that total to several millions every year - a difference of even a few hundred thousands in EB2 I-485 applications is not going to make too much of a material difference to USCIS.

imdeng,

I would agree that when looked at in the totality of cases that USCIS process, it wouldn't appear to be a problem.

However, it strikes me that really only NSC and TSC deal with EB cases and they are the only ones with ISOs trained to adjudicate these cases, so perhaps kd does have a valid point.

If EB3 and EB2-IC have been pre-adjudicated to date, then that is, say 80k new EB cases a year normal receipt workload. That is borne out by the 78.3k Receipts in FY2011, which was 29% of the I-485 Receipts at NSC & TSC.

An extra 60k receipts would represent a considerable increase in workload. It would raise the EB% to 42% of total receipts and increase the overall yearly workload by 22%. Given those extra receipts are concentrated in the first half of the year, it is really a 40% increase for that period.

Approvals of EB cases represented about 40% of NSC/TSC workload in FY2011.

Adjusted for the fact that EB3 and EB2-IC were previously pre-adjudicated meant about 26% of all cases approved by NSC/TSC in FY2011 were processed from scratch.

The increase in all cases processed from scratch by NSC/TSC would be about 10%. Looked at for EB cases alone, it is an increase of nearly 40%.

Since we haven't heard any news of staff increases at NSC/TSC, the volume increases may have an effect.

[kd2008]

imdeng,

I would agree that when looked at in the totality of cases that USCIS process, it wouldn't appear to be a problem.

However, it strikes me that really only NSC and TSC deal with EB cases and they are the only ones with ISOs trained to adjudicate these cases, so perhaps kd does have a valid point.

If EB3 and EB2-IC have been pre-adjudicated to date, then that is, say 80k new EB cases a year normal receipt workload. That is borne out by the 78.3k Receipts in FY2011, which was 29% of the I-485 Receipts at NSC & TSC.

An extra 60k receipts would represent a considerable increase in workload. It would raise the EB% to 42% of total receipts and increase the overall yearly workload by 22%. Given those extra receipts are concentrated in the first half of the year, it is really a 40% increase for that period.

Approvals of EB cases represented about 40% of NSC/TSC workload in FY2011.

Adjusted for the fact that EB3 and EB2-IC were previously pre-adjudicated meant about 26% of all cases approved by NSC/TSC in FY2011 were processed from scratch.

The increase in all cases processed from scratch by NSC/TSC would be about 10%. Looked at for EB cases alone, it is an increase of nearly 40%.

Since we haven't heard any news of staff increases at NSC/TSC, the volume increases may have an effect.

Spec, thank you for your insight. My hunch is now turning in to a worry

In past we have discussed that AOS has two components to it - the movement of cut-off date to be able to file I-485 and the timely processing of the case to adjudication.

I think Mr. CO has done his part by moving the cut-off dates. Now the ball is in the USCIS court to timely process the cases to use up the annual quota.

From past experiences, we know USCIS more often than not falls short of everyone's expectations. I hope it is not the case this year.

[bee369]

When will be mar bulletin coming out ? Traditionally and historically it releases on Friday and so u think we need to wait until Feb 10 ?

[manubhai]

When will be mar bulletin coming out ? Traditionally and historically it releases on Friday and so u think we need to wait until Feb 10 ?

I hope sooner!! The F5 keys on all my keyboards will be broken - many times over - by then.

On a more serious note- I dont think it "ALWAYS" comes on a Friday. It could come sooner.

[srividya]

typically Visa bulletin comes on 8th or 9th.