The inventory report will shed more light on how many individuals will get green card rather than projected movement in March bulletin.Originally Posted by mesan123
was about to post the same thing Spec...you are always ahead.....can gurus tell us based on this how much will the dates move for Mar bulletin ????
The PD date movements cannot be justified by numbers any more. Its a policy decision.
Cheers
Nat
Wow - the inventory is showing very low #s for India / China. Given 2009 is expected to be lighter than 2008, even better! CO comments about very low levels of filings are not far from the truth.
I was going through the report and trying to comprehend it. The question I have is - Do the the columns depict PD date? If yes then how come there are so many documentarily qualified for 2008 (for India) when the NOV movement was the first time the dates moved into 2008?
Assumptions -
1) Numbers reflect documentarily qualified
2) columns depict PD date
i still feel it is based on the data
Great! Thanks Spec.
Here are my quick observations:
If these numbers are true representation of USCIS pipeline then EB2 is in extremely sweet spot and it should become current at least temporarily pretty soon.
On another note - look at 2011 EB2 - that's the ROW demand. Whereas look at 2007 Oct-Dec that's the typical EB2IC demand. Everything inbetween is a mystery to me as of now. Its difficult to believe the scale of demand destruction!!
Lets see what other folks have to say.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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I think its very clear that the total number of EB2IC 485 applications received by USCIS is less than 10k for 2007 & 2008..
as expected for 2008:
EB2 C - has pending applications only in double digits for most months...
EB2 I - has pending applications only in triple digits for most months...
I think the above might hold true for most of 2009...
However its surprising to see a surge in EB1 numbers since august 2011...
Last edited by MeraNoAayega; 02-03-2012 at 10:18 AM.
hope he makes the date move to mid 2011....just hoping toomuch i know.....in a critical position at work...our project moved to other company...they will offer employement for most of us, who are currently working in the project....i will get pay rise and it is good project...but need to move the company and start over my GC process all over again......incase if i stick to my company, they will defnitely place me in some other project they have....none of there other projects are in my complete skillset....it is a big compromise... well next 2 bulletions are moments are imp for me....dont want to do the same mistake i did in 2007....i have 3 more months to decide...as the new company starts on the project by end of may 2012...
A very quick look at the data, for months that might be complete, suggests an Overall Ratio of 0.6 for India and 0.7 for China, compared to the 0.8 I have been using.
I think it is early days to draw conclusions and I will have a better look as time permits.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Considering the fact that 2008 PDers are taking their own time to file and also Jan - March 2008 PDers were current a month before than rest of 2008, I guess 800 per month would be the final score (I) for the year 2008.
Vishnu, asankaran, smugymba and all others all the best . I think there is a good chance for a whole year movement.
Mesan sis , lets wait for your turn, who knows , you could also get it by this month itself. fingers crossed.
My first reaction:
Is these numbers for real??
mikkan nandri kanmani
I am new to look at inventory data. But the link says that document is updated Jan 12 2012. so probably inventory is not covering entire 2008 folks. Most probably it covers folks upto March 15 2008 or all who filed upto first week of January. Just a guess
Last edited by ravisekhara; 02-03-2012 at 10:31 AM.
Immediate reactions on the Jan 2012 inventory report
EB2C likely to become current in FY 2013.
EB2IC have 4810 for CY 2008 vs the PERM data of about ~28000. But then again complete 2008 filings are not in this data.
Additional EB2IC ~25K applications are expected to be added from the date of inventory (Jan 12, 2012) to Feb 29, 2012. EB2IC total will be 8.5K + 5.5K + 25K = 39K, plenty for this year. But CO may move the dates beyond 1 Jan 2010 just a little to cover some CP cases in case the USCIS processing is tardy.
Contrary to what USCIS tells Mr. CO, EB1 has a very healthy demand and is on track to use up all its quota, I think.
Last edited by kd2008; 02-03-2012 at 10:52 AM.
Friends I tried to test out the ratios for the Nov filers. The inventory figures for the later months are extremely low. If the figures are really true its great news for everyone. Another possibility is that this is a work in progress document and some filings have not met the criteria to be on the inventory or there is a manual step to put a case in the inventory that has not been performed. Iam not sure if the approvals that we have seen
EB2 I – 974 + 936 + 1120 + 1361 = 4391
EB2 C – 395 + 238 + 348 + 306 = 1287
Grand Total = 5887
Using OR of 1 with 2200 per month for 3.5 months = 7700
Using OR of .8 = 6160.
I believe that the OR range is really coming close to 0.75 for Nov filers. I will research the inventory later in the day and over the weekend. Overall the inventory is far lower than expected especially for 2008 more than 2007 and points to a lot of demand destruction. At this rate next VB will surely have forward movement 6 months seems to be a minimum even a year is possible.
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 02-03-2012 at 10:35 AM.
Guru's,
It says this data is for Jan 2012. Does it mean till Jan 31, 2012? Most fo the 2008 filers were current from Jan 1st so wanted to see if they are counted.
Leo; EB2I; PD: 11/01/2008; NSC; MD: 01/03/2012; RD: 01/04/2012; ND: 1/12/2012; FP Scheduled: 02/22; EAD/AP: 02/22; CPO email: 03/09/2012; GC 3/15/2012; what next???? India Trip????
Ravi,
Just curious where did you see "that document is updated Jan 12 2012".
Thanks .
Hope, you are right mesan123. My PD is also May 20, 2011 and I am just after you. I am in India on vacation but I have been so much hooked to all the forums including this one and I still keep checking it at least 4-5 times a day. Will see what the VB shows.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Kanami...
If that comes true...."unga vayila chakkra podanum".... was not waiting for bulletin like this 2 weeks before....this all started with turmoils from my work situation....i know you all guys passed through this phase before me.....
Thanks, Kanmani. I feel this is the bulletin I am going to make it. On the whole EB2 is looking very good. Those who made all the effort and sacrifices to file in EB2 couple of years back are finally going to reap the benefit. All the best!!
This update date is also significant because this means that none of the NSC approvals are subtracted from the inventory all of them have happened later on.
Thank you Ravi.
Based on these numbers can the gurus predict the green card issuance cut of date?
Are these numbers for documentarily qualified applicants?
Last edited by natvyas; 02-03-2012 at 10:48 AM.
Mar bulletin may cover entire 2010. Advance wishes for 2010 folks.
TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:
I am not against to your prediction. But still OP's comments needs to take into cosideration - can't be move to an entire year.. If you words are correct i (PD 9/2/10) will be one of the lucky guy. Hope for the best..
Question - is there any trend that after the inv. data how soon the VB released? just curious..
All the best to every EB2 waiters.
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