EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Q,
We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.
gcw07

Thanks. Will do by weekend.

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

I do not think there will be retrogression unless they move into 2008. Also what ravi says below is a good observation.

As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone !

I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month
Not sure he will call CO next month
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !

He is a good friend. I don't think he will leave us high and dry.

I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.
My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

Because of your EB1 assumption, your numbers are higher. I would be comfortable with a figure like 16K. However, I agree 18-24K is not impossible.

[TeddyKoochu]

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

[whereismygclost]

i know i may be asking too much ..but is there any slight chance for eb2-i pd oct-07 this sept'11? if not sept'11 ..then when? more like q1/q2 of 2012 i.e oct-mar 2012? or is it next spillover season?

[pravara]

- According to the current demand data the total inventoried demand in approximation was 30K. This does not include PWMB or future porting anyway for date movement they should not count.
- Out of that 6K will be cleared out in June that is approximately how many people are current.
- Now we should match it with the spillover that is left to come it is a) EB1 should be another 8k (Out of the 12K I believe still only 9K is allocated so there is 3K more to go) in the coming days 5K more can come b) EB2 ROW 8K (Most people agree on this figure) c) EB5 - 8K.
- Now this is approximately equal to the remaining demand however even though DOS may not consider PWMB and future porting they offer at least a 5K buffer to them. Now even if they are able to attach a cap number before and not approving the case immediately the numbers don't go waste.
- Another thing to learn from last year is that in the spillover quarter they tend to limit it to 7-8K per month something like distributing the load. So a few numbers (5K More) could make the intake happen in September itself, but it definitely has to happen by Q1 / Q2 2012.
- The 24K additional SOFAD numbers that is my guess is centrist it’s not too optimistic nor too pessimistic. I would say that the Sep 2011 date could be anywhere between 01-Apr-2007 to 01-Aug 2007. For the Jul bulletin I hope that the date moves to 01-Feb-2007.

--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007

[gcwait2007]

--> My personal request, please make that 08-Feb-2007

If Teddy is the CO, he would make every one as current

[pch053]

i know i may be asking too much ..but is there any slight chance for eb2-i pd oct-07 this sept'11? if not sept'11 ..then when? more like q1/q2 of 2012 i.e oct-mar 2012? or is it next spillover season?

My feeling is that Oct'07 will be a bit too optimistic expectation unless USCIS opens the floodgates for accepting new applications. I personally will be delighted if the dates move to later half of 2007 (since I have a PD of July'07) but that seems unlikely. You can surely expect to be current during July - Sep'2012. As of now, a reasonable estimate will be to go with Q's latest analysis of another 16K from EB2-ROW, EB5, etc (i.e. assuming most of EB1 FD has been utilized) which will push the PDs in the vicinity of March - April'07.

[veni001]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

Q,
I think so, PD movement in May and June VB are purely from the 12k EB1 spillover from Q1&Q2 of 2011.

Q,

I agree with that assessment.

I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

On the other hand, processing times have increased, so it may be a wash.

Spec,
We observed EB1 reduction from two sources (trackitt & i-140 receipts) and all concluded that ROW EB1 reduction will increase ROW EB2 consumption.
I did not understand your 3k less quota statement, are you referring to FB spillover last year? But i agree EB2ROW may not yield as much as it did last year!

[veni001]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kd, etc..

What do you guys think the purpose of watching out the demand to set the cut off date at this time, are there any chances they can approve newly filed 485s before oct or soon after that? I mean to say can they just assign a number in this fy and process the cases in oct,nov next fiscal?

biber,
I think the new cases (PWMB or porting) filed until end of June will definitely have a chance to get a VISA assigned this year itself.

When spec and I crunched numbers EB2I PWMB PERMS with 2006 PD are less than 500 so there aren't many. There may be few cases with 200 PD that did not apply (not married, out of country, change of employer...etc) but as we know September 2008 EB2I&C PD was at 01AUG2006, so these cases could be only few numbers.

[Spectator]

Q,
I think so, PD movement in May and June VB are purely from the 12k EB1 spillover from Q1&Q2 of 2011.

Spec,
We observed EB1 reduction from two sources (trackitt & i-140 receipts) and all concluded that ROW EB1 reduction will increase ROW EB2 consumption.
I did not understand you 3k less quota statement, are you referring to FB spillover last year? But i agree EB2ROW may not yield as much as it did last year!

Veni,

Yes.

Quota for EB2 was 43,088 last year and is 40,040 this year.

As it affects EB2-ROW (excl M-P) the level reduced from 31,024 to 28,828. M & P each reduced from 3,016 to 2,803.

So even the same approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P yields 2,622 less towards SOFAD, reducing the contribution from 9.7k to 7.0k.

I haven't got a handle on M-P, although Q's figure suggest an increase as well.

A 10% increase in EB3-ROW-M-P approvals would reduce that figure to 4.3k, whilst an increase in EB2-ROW alone would reduce to 4.6k.

In terms of movement it becomes significant.

It is something I will continue to monitor - the jury is out at the moment.

[veni001]

Veni,

Yes.

Quota for EB2 was 43,088 last year and is 40,040 this year.

As it affects EB2-ROW (excl M-P) the level reduced from 31,024 to 28,828. M & P each reduced from 3,016 to 2,803.

So even the same approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P yields 2,622 less towards SOFAD, reducing the contribution from 9.7k to 7.0k.

I haven't got a handle on M-P, although Q's figure suggest an increase as well.

A 10% increase in EB3-ROW-M-P approvals would reduce that figure to 4.3k, whilst an increase in EB2-ROW alone would reduce to 4.6k.

In terms of movement it becomes significant.

It is something I will continue to monitor - the jury is out at the moment.

Spec,
Below is M-P PERM data for 2010 & 1/2 of 2011
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246

Looks like actually the PERM numbers are down, but we have to agree, will have higher EB2% (EB1 effect), ROW PERM situation is also more or less same.

One other factor we may have to consider is technically, ROW PERM approvals until Q3 only will have greater chance of getting VISA allocated from FY 2011 quota (Application processing, fingre printing and back ground check ....etc).

So in my opinion we have to start with 10-01-2010 inventory + 2011(Q1-Q3) PERM data (Q3 is not available yet) as basis for this year ROW demand calculations.

[qesehmk]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

So in my opinion we have to start with 10-01-2010 inventory + 2011(Q1-Q3) PERM data (Q3 is not available yet) as basis for this year ROW demand calculations.

[veni001]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

Q,
I agree, it will not make make any difference.

[veni001]

For the sale of completeness, here is the analysis of the PWD data based on the minimum education and experience required.


Min Education ----------------- No. ---- % --- % Education
EB2
Doctorate(PhD) -------------- 1,828 --- 3.94% ---- 5.56%
Master's ------------------- 19,254 -- 41.54% --- 58.56%
Bachelor's + 5 -------------- 9,935 -- 21.43% --- 30.22%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) - 1,862 --- 4.02% ---- 5.66%
EB2Total ------------------- 32,879 -- 70.93% -- 100.00%

EB3
Bachelor's ------------------ 8,742 -- 18.86% --- 64.89%
Other Degree (JD, MD, etc.) --- 162 --- 0.35% ---- 1.20%
Associate's ------------------- 636 --- 1.37% ---- 4.72%
High School/GED --------------- 714 --- 1.54% ---- 5.30%
None ------------------------ 3,219 --- 6.94% --- 23.89%
EB3 Total ------------------ 13,473 -- 29.07% -- 100.00%

Grand Total---------------- 46,352 - 100.00%

I don't think it tells us anything new. The overall % split between EB2 and EB3 has remained about the same over the last year.

As we have discussed earlier, different Countries have different individual EB2/EB3 splits, ranging from probably India having most EB2 to Mexico having least. Country data is not part of the PWD data.

Since we don't know these, the utility of the data is limited.

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

Q,
Let's look at above PW data analysis from Spec, and apply it to 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM Data, Overall about 71% EB2 qualified!

------------------------Total
2011(Q1+Q2) -------- 43,479
Denied/Withdrawn -----8,275 (19%)
Certified --------------35,204
INDIA-----------------17,830
CHINA -----------------2,115
MEX-------------------1,370
PHIL-------------------1,246
ROW------------------12,648

If we leave the overall PERM certifications at 71%-EB2 and 29%-EB3 and...
Set EB2(I&C) at 80-20 then ROW-M-P should be at 60 - 40 to make overall % to 71 - 29, which means 9.0k ROW-M-P PERMs are EB2 from first two quarters (agree lot of unknowns) adding another quarter and 10-01-2010 ROW-M-P pending inventory will put FY 2011 ROW-M-P demand equal to quota.

Note: Majority of the denial/withdrawn (19%) cases should be EB2 qualified filings!

[qesehmk]

veni I had reached teh same conclusion a few days back when Q2 data came through. However trackitt trend tells a different story.

So which one is true?

To find the answer it might be worthwhile if you can do exactly teh same analysis on 2010 PERM data and find out how many ROWMP EB2 PERMs were approved quarter by quarter.

Q,
Let's look at above PW data analysis from Spec, and apply it to 2011(Q1+Q2) PERM Data, Overall about 71% EB2 qualified!

------------------------Total
2011(Q1+Q2) -------- 43,479
Denied/Withdrawn -----8,275 (19%)
Certified --------------35,204
INDIA-----------------17,830
CHINA -----------------2,115
MEX-------------------1,370
PHIL-------------------1,246
ROW------------------12,648

If we leave the overall PERM certifications at 71%-EB2 and 29%-EB3 and...
Set EB2(I&C) at 80-20 then ROW-M-P should be at 60 - 40 to make overall % to 71 - 29, which means 9.0k ROW-M-P PERMs are EB2 from first two quarters (agree lot of unknowns) adding another quarter and 10-01-2010 ROW-M-P pending inventory will put FY 2011 ROW-M-P demand equal to quota.

Note: Majority of the denial/withdrawn (19%) cases should be EB2 qualified filings!

[Spectator]

veni

I think your approach is right for ROW EB2.
Also ..... if I may, why increase complexity by separating MP and ROW? Just club everything together and use that since they all are current.

EB2-ROW data on Trackitt has proved very reliable.

Philippines isn't bad, but Mexico is awful.

It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.

etc etc.

If you talk about EB3, then it's even worse, because the CP % are so different.

There is method to my madness.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.

[qesehmk]

My comments inline ..

It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.
The same can be said of any individual coutries. That's why for sake of simplicity its not a bad idea to combine.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.
This is something that is not in tune with trackitt trend. I am curious if you know YoY ROW PERMs are up by what %.

[veni001]

veni I had reached teh same conclusion a few days back when Q2 data came through. However trackitt trend tells a different story.

So which one is true?

To find the answer it might be worthwhile if you can do exactly teh same analysis on 2010 PERM data and find out how many ROWMP EB2 PERMs were approved quarter by quarter.

Q,
For 2010 based on PW disclosure overall EB2-EB3 breakdown is 66-34. And PERM denial/withdrawal is about 14%

2010PERM ---- 81,412
Denied/Withdrawn -- 11,175 (13.6%)
Certified ----70,237
INDIA ------ 28,930
CHINA ------- 4,052
MEX --------- 3,306
PHIL ---------3,305
ROW ---------30,644

If we apply the same 80-20 factor for EB2I&C then EB2 ROW should be at 54% to make 66-34 PW data split to work! Which means about 20K EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs for FY2010.

We know there are 27.4k EB2 ROW-M-P approvals from FY 2010 and about 8.0k pending as of 10-01-2010.

If we take pending demand at the beginning of FY = pending at the end of FY then
1. Either our multiplication factor is not valid for ROW!
2. We have to consider the PW data for the total cases than just for the certified cases, and attribute all denial/withdrawn as EB2 qualified filings (this approach will bring the above number to 16.0k,which is close)(If we do the same for FY 2011 data then, not counting Q4 PERM, ROW-M-P demand will be about 29.0k)

[Spectator]

My comments inline ..

Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
It makes sense to split them because the EB2:EB3 splits for Mexico and Philippines are very different to EB2-ROW alone.
The same can be said of any individual coutries. That's why for sake of simplicity its not a bad idea to combine.

If you look at the FY2011 Q1/Q2 data for ROW, the % is down because of the high India numbers, but the numbers are up on the same period the previous year.
This is something that is not in tune with trackitt trend. I am curious if you know YoY ROW PERMs are up by what %.

True if ROW were an individual Country, but it's not. Both Mexico and Philippines do not behave as ROW precisely because they are individual Countries.

The information is in a previous post. I'll track it down and add it to this post.

Edit Post 1379

Country/Group – FY2010 Q1 – FY2011 Q1 - % Change
MEXICO------------ 563 ------- 710 ------ 26.11%
PHILIPPINES------- 578 ------- 746 ------ 29.07%
ROW------------- 5,363 ----- 6,596 ------ 22.99%
Grand Total ---- 6,504 ----- 8,052 ------ 23.80%

I think the Q1-Q2 figures are somewhere, but it is probably quicker to re-compile them, rather than track them down on the forum.

Edit:

It seems my memory is faulty.

The trend seems to have reversed in Q2, but there were only around 50% of the approvals in Q2 in FY2011 than there were in FY2010. Probably this is due to the approval time increasing as DOL tackled the Audit backlog. This may continue to be a factor during the rest of the year.

I don't think we will know until the Q3 figures are available, but it may not be the huge factor I remembered from Q1.

[qesehmk]

great. So veni it seems for ROWMP EB2 in 2010 the multiplication factor was 1.8.

If you use teh same factor in 2011 then ROWMP EB2 485 demand would be 9*2*1.8 =32.4K

Assuming some of these get rejected at 485 stage and 140 stage, may be 30K. So as spec said earlier the worst case scenario for EB2 ROWMP SOFAD is about 4K. Not bad, we will take that hoping that EB1 can fill up that gap of 4K by providing additional 4K.

Q,
For 2010 based on PW disclosure overall EB2-EB3 breakdown is 66-34. And PERM denial/withdrawal is about 14%

2010PERM ---- 81,412
Denied/Withdrawn -- 11,175 (13.6%)
Certified ----70,237
INDIA ------ 28,930
CHINA ------- 4,052
MEX --------- 3,306
PHIL ---------3,305
ROW ---------30,644

If we apply the same 80-20 factor for EB2I&C then EB2 ROW should be at 54% to make 66-34 PW data split to work! Which means about 20K EB2 ROW-M-P PERMs for FY2010.

We know there are 27.4k EB2 ROW-M-P approvals from FY 2010 and about 8.0k pending as of 10-01-2010.

If we take pending demand at the beginning of FY = pending at the end of FY then
1. Either our multiplication factor is not valid for ROW!
2. We have to consider the PW data for the total cases than just for the certified cases, and attribute all denial/withdrawn as EB2 qualified filings (this approach will bring the above number to 16.0k,which is close)(If we do the same for FY 2011 data then, not counting Q4 PERM, ROW demand will be about 29.0k)

[veni001]

great. So veni it seems for ROWMP EB2 in 2010 the multiplication factor was 1.8.

If you use teh same factor in 2011 then ROWMP EB2 485 demand would be 9*2*1.8 =32.4K

Assuming some of these get rejected at 485 stage and 140 stage, may be 30K. So as spec said earlier the worst case scenario for EB2 ROWMP SOFAD is about 4K. Not bad, we will take that hoping that EB1 can fill up that gap of 4K by providing additional 4K.

Unless Q3 PERM data is available, I agree we can not bank more than 4k from EB2ROW-M-P at this point. I would think, based on the trending, EB1 can yield anywhere between 4-10k for the remainder of FY2011.

Probably it is safe to say EB1+EB2ROW-M-P could yield about 10.0K for final quarter!

[veni001]

------
-------
Edit Post 1379

Country/Group – FY2010 Q1 – FY2011 Q1 - % Change
MEXICO------------ 563 ------- 710 ------ 26.11%
PHILIPPINES------- 578 ------- 746 ------ 29.07%
ROW------------- 5,363 ----- 6,596 ------ 22.99%
Grand Total ---- 6,504 ----- 8,052 ------ 23.80%

I think the Q1-Q2 figures are somewhere, but it is probably quicker to re-compile them, rather than track them down on the forum.

Edit:

It seems my memory is faulty.

The trend seems to have reversed in Q2, but there were only around 50% of the approvals in Q2 in FY2011 than there were in FY2010. Probably this is due to the approval time increasing as DOL tackled the Audit backlog. This may continue to be a factor during the rest of the year.

I don't think we will know until the Q3 figures are available, but it may not be the huge factor I remembered from Q1.

Spec,
That's correct...
--------FY2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011 --- 2011(Est.) ----- % ----
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370 ----------- 2,740 --------17.1%(-ve)
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246 ------------2,492 --------24.5%(-ve)
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648 ---------- 25,296 --------17.4%(-ve)
Total ---37,255 -------15,264 -----------30,528 --------18.0%(-ve)

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

[soggadu]

[QUOTE=veni001;2040]Spec,
That's correct...
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications![/

So .... Approx 24k for row and 5k combined for MP... We will still get slipover right??

[Spectator]

It seems to me that EB2-ROW I-485 approval times are trending upwards, so I was wondering how much of an impact Q3 FY2011 PERM approvals will have.

The data we do have is for FY2010 and Q1/Q2 FY2011. Possibly most FY2011 EB2-ROW approvals will come from that.

Here are the relevant figures:

Country ------ Q3/4 FY2010 -- Q1/2 FY2011 --- Total
MEXICO ------------- 1,662 -------- 1,370 --- 3,032
PHILIPPINES -------- 1,543 -------- 1,246 --- 2,789
ROW --------------- 14,207 ------- 12,643 -- 26,850
Grand Total ------- 17,412 ------- 15,259 -- 32,671

Q3 2010 was a high approval quarter so possibly the figures will be somewhat less, because some of Q3 FY2010 will be replaced by Q3 FY2011 numbers.

[gcwait2007]

Spec,
That's correct...
--------FY2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011 --- 2011(Est.) ----- % ----
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370 ----------- 2,740 --------17.1%(-ve)
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246 ------------2,492 --------24.5%(-ve)
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648 ---------- 25,296 --------17.4%(-ve)
Total ---37,255 -------15,264 -----------30,528 --------18.0%(-ve)

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

Good News

[veni001]

Spec,
That's correct...
----------2010-----(Q1+Q2)2011
MEXICO--3,306 ------- 1,370
PHIL. ----3,305 ------- 1,246
ROW ---30,644 -------12,648

If we extrapolate based on Q1+Q2 for the remainder of FY2011, then that's about 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM certifications!

So .... Approx 24k for row and 5k combined for MP... We will still get slipover right??

soggadu;
Please note each analysis we are looking at different angle, in this approach it is showing 18% net reduction in ROW-M-P PERM filing at the same time we see about 5% increase in PW data for FY2011(Q1+Q2), if we off-sett that then the net effect will be around 10% reduction.