EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[kd2008]

I think DOS is frustrated with USCIS that they haven't kept a count on new I-140s approved with older PDs to see what is the upgrade demand.

I think DOS is in game mode now ..it will do what it did with family-based cases. It will push dates as far as it can to use up all visas and then retrogress in October.


PS: In the downturn of 2008-2009, a few Indians abandoned their GC process and went back to India. Most attorneys advised them to withdraw their applications. I thought we could possible see a miniscule effect in the USCIS inventory. But that was not to be.

I am sure we will see a drop of a few thousand applications when compared to our estimates on PERM approvals.

[MeraNoAayega]

Speculation, Just like the Crude Oil eh...

[gcwait2007]

While I can see the dates in Mumbai embassy, I can not see the June 2011 VB in Travel.State.Gov website.

Can any one see the June 2011 VB now?

[pravara]

Q,

I think your source was correct about the 'significant' part. This particular jump by itself might not be spectacular, but it definitely indicates a trend in the right direction. This blog has become the best coping outlet for GC venting. Thanks to all the guys out there.

[TeluguBidda]

Not yet. It will be interesting to see any guidance but, I suspect there wouldn't be much. I have a feeling that DOS did not get inputs relative to porting cases, so they moved dates by 3.5 months, just to test waters.

While porting cases are not many, there are enough that could not have caused dates move by 3.5 months before the spillover season.

[qesehmk]

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...

[skpanda]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html


As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

[bieber]

that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

[qesehmk]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

that was a good explanation,

Q, do you believe EB5, EB2-ROW spill is already being used?

[Spectator]

The June 2011 bulletin is out! Oct 2006 for EB2IC stands good.

The only thing I could find out that is significant and over and above what we have already discussed is "At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal.". That's good.

As we have always said porting is probably just enough to cover EB2I or max EB2IC annual limit. If 3.5 months is "significant" movemement then porting equal to annual limit being called "heavy demand" isn't a stretch of imagination.

So long...

Here is the full explanatory text.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CATEGORY

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

[Spectator]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

Q,

I agree with that assessment.

I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

On the other hand, processing times have increased, so it may be a wash.

[bieber]

Spec

delaying the bulletin for couple of days to findout the upgrade demand is minimal sounds scientific to me

They will most likely see some porting demand for dates between Aug-Oct2006 and if that is substantial (say 500-1000) they will stop moving dates in July bulletin and then findout the demand is minimal compared to sofad supply and hopefully they have no option left except to make the date current

[srini1976]

This is all great news for EB2 (I). Thanks for all the great work by Teddy, Q, Spec, Veni & others. You guys are really awesome. Please take a bow

And all the kudos to the folks who are stopping EB1 fraud filing by .... companies.. This is making such a huge difference and hopefully genuine folks deserve much better.
Better late than never.

Hopefully the dates should move by atleast 3-4 months in the next VB so that I get a chance to get GREEN

[qesehmk]

I think we r in sync. I have the same worry too. As long as ROWMP consume same as last year (i.e. 27K) we should still see 7.5K SOFAD.

Q,
I still have a worry that the effective EB2-ROW approvals are a bit higher than last year. Together with 3k less quota for EB2, the numbers provided towards SOFAD from EB2 may not be as high as last year.

[justintime]

thanks to Q, teddy, spec, veni and all....you guys are awesome!

[gcwait2007]

Q,

We have crossed the Pessimistic scenario. Do you plan to update the Page 1 (very first thread) with new developments? Thanks.

gcw07

[justintime]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

[Spectator]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

justintime,

My personal opinion.

I think this is more of a caveat to cover all the bases and try to diminish expectations.

I don't think DOS are unaware of the frenzy that the movement to date has caused.

[zenmaster]

Q - this new bulletin talks that there is a retrogression possible if they see heavy demand..what do you think?

As far as my intuition tells me, retrogression statement in the bulletin is GOOD news. It just means, they MAY advance dates well ahead of where they want to peg it for this year and give people an opportunity to file 485.
God Speed to everyone !

[justintime]

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now..
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

[shaumack]

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

[zenmaster]

Hey Q , thumbs up to you for getting the heads up on significant movement for EB2-I/C from your inner circle. Thanks. Keep this movement rollin.

I think Q's inner circle friend got current this month
Not sure he will call CO next month
Much Thanks Q, for the bull's eye breaking news !

[zenmaster]

Thanks Spec and ravi.shah!.
My pr date is at the end of Sep 2006 and will be current next month..
I cant quite get off priority date threads and not quite get onto "What to do when you date is current" threads..hanging there in the middle for now..
and then I look forward to go to "What to do when you have GC" threads to "R2IClubforums.." happy times Cheers!

Congratulations justintime ! You are literally just-in-time
Good luck in all your future endeavors ...

[gcwait2007]

I think all this movement so far is purely due to EB1. How about Spec Veni Teddy and others?

Q/ Spec/ Veni & others,

Knowing the cautious approach of DoS and CO, I will say PART of EB1 FD is used now, to reach 10/15/2006.

Further they have reconciled the upgrade demand and they may be aware to some extent to say that it is minimal.

Another 4K to 8K is leftout in EB1 FD, EB5 FD would provide 7K to 8K and EB2 ROW would give another 7K to 8K.

My guess is that there is another 18K to 24K, SOFAD may be avilable.

Please offer your comments. Thanks.

[bieber]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kd, etc..

What do you guys think the purpose of watching out the demand to set the cut off date at this time, are there any chances they can approve newly filed 485s before oct or soon after that? I mean to say can they just assign a number in this fy and process the cases in oct,nov next fiscal?