EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[psczd4]

Hello manubhai,

I thought of sharing my experience related to H1b extension. I filed for a 3 year extension (regular process) based on my I-140 approval in Aug. 2011. I became current in Nov 2011 VB (PD: Aug. 2007), and filed for my I 485 while my extension was still pending. I was under the same assumption that I will get 1 year extension cuz, I'm current. But received my approval notice in Jan 2012 for 3 years that was requested for. Now waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

Hope this helps.

[vgraj1]

Thanks Kanmani and jackbrown_890 for sharing the link.

[ChampU]

QQ about QSP.. Are the spillover numbers released at the beginning of the Qtr or towards the end? Yesterday a lot of approvals were reported from NSC.. is this increased activity because of spillover numbers or is it normal at this time of the year?

[Spectator]

My evil head noticed something here.

I just applied for an H1 extension (3yrs requested based on approved I140). But if I become current next month, and my H1 application is looked at "next month" + 1 day, they'll only give me a 1 year extension because I will be current on that day. I am not getting my GC for at least another 18/24 months. So I'll have to re-apply for my H1 extension again in about 11 months!!!! (Yeah... I know I'll have my EAD by then but I still want to have an H1 approved)

I know there's a technical difference between what the language says - "availability of visa numbers" and what I am saying - "I am current", but USCIS wont care.

Just another way to make money from us suckers!!! I never knew they were as evil as I was!

BTW - I hope you are all calling your senators repeatedly to request they support HR 3012. It takes 20 seconds per call.

manubhai,

You should be fine. It is the availability of visas at the time of filing, not adjudication that is important.

From the May 30, 2008 AC21 Memo

2. AC21 §104(c) Guidance for Aliens Subject to Per Country Visa Limitations

Pursuant to AC21 §104(c), an alien is eligible for an extension of H-1B status if the alien is the beneficiary of an I-140 petition and would be eligible to be granted immigrant status but for the application of per country limitations applicable to immigrants under INA § 203(b)(1), (2) or (3). Despite the title of AC21 §104(c), referring to “one-time” protection, USCIS may grant such H-1B extensions, in a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

AC21 § 104(c) is applicable when an alien, who is the beneficiary of an approved I-140 petition, is eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status but for application of a per country limitation to which that alien is subject or, alternatively, if the immigrant preference category applicable to that alien is, as a whole, “unavailable”. Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to AC21 §104(c) must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations or, alternatively, because the immigrant preference classification applicable to the alien is “unavailable”.

In order to make a determination as to the H-1B alien beneficiary’s eligibility for an extension of H-1B status under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21, USCIS adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of filing of the Form I-129 petition.

If, on the date of filing of the H-1B petition, the Visa Bulletin shows that the alien was subject to a per country or worldwide visa limitation in accordance with the alien’s immigrant visa “priority date”, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted. To establish the alien’s priority date, USCIS may accept a copy of the H-1B alien beneficiary’s Form I-140 petition approval notice.

[kd2008]

Pending I-485 inventory is expected in a few days to a week according to a reliable source. I hope it comes true. Lets gear up for a teardown and analysis marathon.

[krishnav]

Hello All,

Do both service centers share the same visa numbers (2X for both) or do they get equal numbers for each service center ( NSC - X and TSC - X)?
I ask because if NSC start approving visas, does it mean TSC is loosing its numbers?

Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks.

[sweety0202]

i think we gotta reroute(hehe..) donations to trackitt so that it can have another server.
it seems to be down most of the times.

[mysati]

Hello All,

Do both service centers share the same visa numbers (2X for both) or do they get equal numbers for each service center ( NSC - X and TSC - X)?
I ask because if NSC start approving visas, does it mean TSC is loosing its numbers?

Any thoughts are appreciated.
Thanks.

I have a similar question. Read somewhere that cases are being routed to TSC for EAD/AP approval since NSC is overloaded. Does that mean, cases can be/are routed to NSC for 485 approval?

[vp5856]

Nishant,
My RD is Nov 2nd and I received FP notice on Dec 9 for Jan 5 appointment. Which is around 65 days after filing.
Yesterday I observed on Trackitt, 5 or 6 Nov approvals have FP dates around this date and FP dates appointments, like me late than NSC average. May be already decided ones for them and FP is mere a formality? Two or three weeks back also I observed Nov NSC approval case, 2-3 weeks after FP.
Just an observation, there is no theory behind it.

friend, can you explain this a bit, I did not understand completely.

[vp5856]

visagcinfo, you read it right.

vp5856: Congrats.

This information makes your 485 approval more interesting. If I read it right, your current employer did not sponsor your GC but future employer who is a small/medium sized company is the one who sponsored your GC. We don't hear such scenarios often.

[nishant2200]

Nishant,
My RD is Nov 2nd and I received FP notice on Dec 9 for Jan 5 appointment. Which is around 65 days after filing.
Yesterday I observed on Trackitt, 5 or 6 Nov approvals have FP dates around this date and FP dates appointments, like me late than NSC average. May be already decided ones for them and FP is mere a formality? Two or three weeks back also I observed Nov NSC approval case, 2-3 weeks after FP.
Just an observation, there is no theory behind it.

Got it. thank you!

[gkjppp]

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petition...ampaign=eb2eb3



All BS but at least they are taking notice

If they make this as a law it's boon to all Indians, most of us just need ead/ap to travel to their home country as and when needed.

[nabrika]

Not sure if someone has already shared this news from Murthy.


NewsFlash! March 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions: EB2 to Advance Again! Posted 24.Jan.2012
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available.

[savinir]

Hello manubhai,

I thought of sharing my experience related to H1b extension. I filed for a 3 year extension (regular process) based on my I-140 approval in Aug. 2011. I became current in Nov 2011 VB (PD: Aug. 2007), and filed for my I 485 while my extension was still pending. I was under the same assumption that I will get 1 year extension cuz, I'm current. But received my approval notice in Jan 2012 for 3 years that was requested for. Now waiting for my EAD/AP approval.

Hope this helps.

Hi,

Thanks for the information it really help me a lot. i was about to file my extension and the exact same day i became current.So asked my attorney to hold off my extension and wanted to apply for H1 B extension after 485 is filed.But with this information i immediately emailed my company.

thank you.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for the compliment Teddy, I am so close to make my signature true.

One of my friend got NVC fee notice. His PD is Apr 29 2010!!

Good luck every one!

Suninphx great news thanks for posting. gkjppp very good news indeed you can be quite confident about the next bulletin now because all the news and the NVC notice now supports forward movement.

[tanu_75]

Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.

Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.

[vgraj1]

Hi gkjppp,

I suggest you drop the word 'or 10/2014 bulletin' from your signature. That gives hope to April 11 PDers in FY 2013.

Best of luck in March bulletin!

[nishant2200]

One of my friend got NVC fee notice. His PD is Apr 29 2010!!

Good luck every one!

wonderful!! I remember reading somewhere, maybe on CM's blogspot blog, that CO has good data of approved I-140 category changeability wise from September 2010 onwards. If that's true, then we might see him move till around September 2010 to gauge the demand. For life of me, I can't find the source of this information I got in my head.

[suninphx]

wonderful!! I remember reading somewhere, maybe on CM's blogspot blog, that CO has good data of approved I-140 category changeability wise from September 2010 onwards. If that's true, then we might see him move till around September 2010 to gauge the demand. For life of me, I can't find the source of this information I got in my head.

If the movement is happening based on some data then nothing like it. It will be really a good news for every one. My assumption all the while is that CO is making use of 'technical defination' of demand and moving dates. If the date movement is also based on data even better.

[vgraj1]

If you see the latest statement from CO, DOS is not only considering DQ cases but also new I-485 EB2 filings received by USCIS. And USCIS has itself admitted that only 50% of its estimated EB 2 I-485filings are actually being received. This shows clearly the impact of recession in the last few years that has led to substantial demand destruction. Unlike 2007, the DOS in tandem with USCIS are advancing the dates carefully this year so that no FY 2012 visas are wasted. So, let us remain positive and hope for the best.

[skpanda]

I think Mr. CO may have already made up his mind on the COD for March VB and i hope DOS releases the March VB on 3rd FEb itself (3rd working day) like they did with Feb VB.

Good Luck to all 2010 filers (especially first 6 months)!!

[kd2008]

Consular visa count count EB2-I

Mumbai Jan 2012 - 16
Mumbai Feb 2012 - 44

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/interv..._schedule.html

Delhi Jan 2012 - 1

http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/visa_interview_dates.html

We need to start keeping track of this!

[Chilli19]

i got an email from my attorney that we (2010 filers until june ) should be ready with the documents. He even setup a call for the filers. I hope it will reach atleast June 2010

[nishant2200]

From here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...9199#post19199

Thanks kd. so basically it's this statement in AILA's news:

"Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested."

Based on this, I hope he goes a bit further than those 6 months talked about, and goes until at least September 2010.

[imdeng]

My gut feel is that we will end the FY2012 in the middle of 2008 and we will then finish the rest of 2008 and the whole of 2009 in FY2013 - this will keep the 4 year wait for PD to GC Issue for EB2I. This is of course without HR3012. Once the demand data shows us the density of filings then we will be able to fine tune the projections.

Any thoughts from folks on where the PD could end up in say Nov 2012, i.e, where's the line for actual Green Card approvals this year? I know we don't have demand data for the past few months of date movements, but that hasn't really stopped us from predicting in the past. Teddy/Q/Spec/KD/Nishant any ideas? I checked the Facts and Data thread but didn't come across any updates there.

Also is Trackitt working for anyone? I've been wanting to check stats but can't seem to access it for the past couple of days.