EB2 I think it also applies to situation when the prmary applicant has already applied for 485 and then gets married before 485 is adjudicated.
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
EB2 I think it also applies to situation when the prmary applicant has already applied for 485 and then gets married before 485 is adjudicated.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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USCIS Service Center Operations (SCOPS) is now moving past the 2007 filing surge cases, and based on movement of the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates and an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months.
Could it mean that the dates would continue to move until the DD shows 14-18k??
That's a good question. When they use a term like i-485 application, does it mean 'application for a visa number' or can 1 485 application result in multiple visas? It can I guess.
So following up on that, I am looking at the reports at http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Can anyone please clarify 1) if these reports are just for the field offices or include NSC and TSC as well? Some of the numbers are quite low. So 2) Does this report numbers include dependents as well or is it just primary?
Thank you.
KD thanks for posting this link. As far as I can understand there target is to get a maximum of 18K applications because the probably know that 10-12K SOFAD is burnt already. There is no duration qualified in what range this is expected and there is no date on the document to judge when they have these thoughts. For sure atleast by the Feb bulletin they have crossed the line by double even if one believes in demand destruction. By most estimates the intakes till 01-JAN-2010 would range between 35-40K. It’s a clear case of low demand interpreted as qualified or documentarily qualified is being used to advance the VB's. It’s good for all our friends waiting to file their 485's I sincerely hope this party continues but this could come crumbling down like a pack of cards anytime based on numbers. Also I wonder based on the link you posted earlier EB5 consumption is almost matching the cap thus far and EB1 is moving really fast on Trackitt, so our only hope this year is EB2 ROW which is the only category moving slower as of now.
Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you.
The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.
Last edited by kd2008; 01-25-2012 at 02:19 PM.
Based on your and Teddy's conversation, I infer that the 14k-18k number is the actual visa demand including dependents. Right?Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you.
The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.
As KD pointed out...this document is from a round table conference held on Oct 10th 2011. So I am guessing "coming months" means Oct, Nov and Dec 2011 (which means 15Apr'07-15 Mar'08).
http://www.dhs.gov/files/publication...ghts-2011.shtm
NSC
PD: Sep 2007
RD: 10-Nov-2011
ND: 15-Nov-2011
EAD/AP approval: 27-Dec-2011
FP Date:-06-Jan-2012
I-485 approval:- 25-Jan-2012
GC in Hand:- 30-Jan-2012
Us is is talking about expected number of filings based on 140 stats. The number of filings is individual, one for each primary and one for each dependent. If what they expect is 14 to 18k, it would be good to know when they made this comment to see whether the number makes any sense.
Now as for other expectation that there should be at least 50k apps, we need to keep in mind that they are all guesses with lot of assumptions, however educated they be.
No offense to anyone, but most of our calculations are based on assumptions like eb2/eb3 ratio, dependent factor, approval rate, DD, multiple filings, abandonment etc.. The only concrete number we have is the number of perms for both eb2 and 3.
Given that we have a lot of assumptions, is it not possible that the filings may actually be lower than what we expect?
Just a thought.
Teddy, thank you for sharing your thoughts and I agree with you.
The conference was held on Oct 20, 2011 and the remarks were made on that day. So I am thinking the 14K-18K number would be based at least on the Oct & Nov bulletin.Guys thanks. I believe expecting a 14K filing by the Nov bulletin is actually way over the top. However 14-18K till 15th Mar 2008 seems to be reasonable. By the OR of 1, 8 months should yield 17600 and OR of 0.8 should yield 14080. 2200 per month the monthly assumption and starting date is 15-JUL-2007, for simplicity lets discount the 2K PWMB (Oct Filers).
Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 01-25-2012 at 02:50 PM.
The minutes of the discussion says an analysis of completed Form I-140s, USCIS anticipates 14,000 – 18,000 new employment-based adjustment of status filings in the coming months .
Moreover we all have given information about dependants who will be filing I-485 with the primary in Part 7 of the I-140 application . So, when they claim they were expecting 14-18K I-485 applications it is clear that dependants are included in their calculations and as per AILA, USCIS received only 50% of what they expected to receive.
Does this mean they received only 7-9K up to March 2008?
Last edited by Kanmani; 01-25-2012 at 03:27 PM.
My belief is that by Mar 15 2008 that number should be a minimum of 14K. Some people are filing late as well. The next bulletin or the subsequent one will hopefully give us some insights also lets see the inventory / upcoming demand data.
Guys, I have a feeling that it is again going to be a 2007 fiasco minus EB3. A big 2012 Eb2 FIASCO. Dates will again retrogress a big time. This is all drama by USCIS to generate revenue. But again great window for all of us to get EADs and next window will again open in next 3-4 years.
Hi All, just wanted to share the good news that our EAD and AP applications were approved yesterday and we got email and text notifications today. Thanks to the moderators for starting and running a great thread like this and thanks to everyone for all the number crunching and information sharing. Hope everyone is greened soon.
PD: 11/15/07, RD: 12/06/11, EAD & AP approval emails: 01/25/2011, SC: NSC.
Folks,
Couple of questions. My 485 etc application will go in by end of this week. I'm primary and my wife is dependent.
1. When can we expect EAD given processing times now?
2. My wife is currently on H1 which expires mid-May (although she has an I-94 on her passport valid till 11/30 from when she was on H4 though). If we don't get EAD by then, im assuming she will need to move back from H1 to H4. How does that impact her 485 application and for that matter EAD/AP as well?
pS: I'll delete this after its answered. Thanks.
vizcard,
You should expect EAD/AP in about 10 weeks from RD.
If your wife is currently on H1 status, don't count on H4 I-94 date in the passport, she must have received i-94 with new expiration date when applied for COS from H4 to H1.
If she don't get EAD/AP before current H1 i-94 expiration then she need to file for H1 extension or stop working until EAD/AP combo card received.
Even if she don't file for COS to H4 or H1 extension , her say will be legal based on pending AOS.
Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.
My PD is Dec 2007 and my H1 is expiring on May 2012. I am considering my H1 extension as a backup based on approved 140 as I am on my 6th year. If I apply for the extension now, I am eligible for only one year extension since the my PD is current. Therefore I am thinking of waiting until April end to see if the data retrogress. If they do and go prior to Dec 2007, I can apply in premium and will be eligible for 3 year extension.
But, based on the approval seen on various forums, folks with October 2007 PD are getting approved and therefore the possibility of dates going back prior to 2008 Jan is unlikely. Is this a general consensus that dates would not retrogress that far back and likely go back somewhere in 2008?
We can never predict date movement accurately, for all we know even though there will be very few pre Dec 2007 folks left by May, the dates might go back in 2007 and again start moving based on pending applications and available visas. But either way your logic sounds correct, you will know by Apr 10-12 about May bulletin and you can accordingly apply for H1. But since you have PD of Dec 2007 you are likely to get GC within 6 months so it would not matter if you have 1 year or 3 years H1.
She cant extend her H1 .. maxed out her 6 yrs and she works in Fashion so they dont really want to sponsor GCs until its a real issue. But basically what im hearing from your response is that even if her H1 expires, we dont need to worry about applying for a COS to H4 and shes legal from an immigration standpoint.
Ideally it'll be perfect if she can continue to work straight through without a break but worst case she'll take time off and then come back with her EAD.
Where did you get the information that if your PD is current you will get only 1 yr extn? In my opinion, your H1 etn doesn't depend on PD but on the length of the project.
I have seen this rule in many places. Here is one of them.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_movh1b.html
Transformer,
I guess what you are mentioning is specific to Consulting jobs. If you are a direct, full time employee I do not think there is any mention of any project duration.
my I140 is approved with PD as May 2011. My wife's consultancy wants to file for her GC as well. She has her MS from here.
Is it a beneficial to start with her GC process as well? Will it create any problem as I have added her as my dependant in the PERM form.
Thanks,
Deb
1. No issues to start your wife's Perm again.
2. 485 is only stage you need your dependants information/ during Perm/140 its not requied.
Last edited by gkjppp; 01-26-2012 at 02:46 PM.
TSC || PD: 15-03-2010 || RD: 05-Mar-2012 || ND: 07-Mar-2012 || FP sch/done : 16-Apr-2012 || EAD/AP: 20-Apr-2012|| GC:
Thank you for sharing the link. This is really useful information.
My evil head noticed something here.
I just applied for an H1 extension (3yrs requested based on approved I140). But if I become current next month, and my H1 application is looked at "next month" + 1 day, they'll only give me a 1 year extension because I will be current on that day. I am not getting my GC for at least another 18/24 months. So I'll have to re-apply for my H1 extension again in about 11 months!!!! (Yeah... I know I'll have my EAD by then but I still want to have an H1 approved)
I know there's a technical difference between what the language says - "availability of visa numbers" and what I am saying - "I am current", but USCIS wont care.
Just another way to make money from us suckers!!! I never knew they were as evil as I was!
BTW - I hope you are all calling your senators repeatedly to request they support HR 3012. It takes 20 seconds per call.
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