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Thread: EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

  1. #4126
    GC in US itself is conditonal unlike other countries granting PR based on educational qualifications.

    Since the GC is offered purely based upon the job position of the particular company with an intention to work in the position on a permanent basis I dont think this could be challenged.

    Just my point of view leaving the rest to Gurus.

  2. #4127
    Quote Originally Posted by krishnav View Post
    Unless his employer owes him some money.
    Well, even before we think of alternatives, is there even such a contract based rule in the US. I think they are just trying to scare you.
    I heard of non disclosure agreements but I have never heard of any company making its employee write a contract to stay with them for x amount of time.
    I could be wrong...perhaps one of the gurus would know better about such contracts.
    Yes , they are valid, the rules vary from state to state, In california the rules are not tight. But in NY same bond is valid.

    Most of the time , they quote this amount as filing and some misc expenses, they will go to arbitrage courts.

    I have my colleage in CA, but his employer in NY, he filed bond for 18 months, and he left after 6 months on H1, then their employer filed case in the arb court, the judge ordered to pay prorated amount, he had to pay around 9K.

    In my personal case, I wrote a bond with my employer for 18 months with 15K, on H1 in CA, I got offer from my client in 14th month of the contract, then I moved becoz of economy.

    My employer sent lawyer notice for the amount 15K, not even prorated amount, but luckily, there was a DOL audit going on for some people on bench, then I sent a email to him, stating his company is not paying some of the employees on bench and DOL audit etc for the reason to leave the company. After that , I did not see any mails from him, this is 2008.

  3. #4128
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    I work in NY and I had to sign a $10K contract for 2 years after GC. Ofcourse I can always ask my new company to give me a "signing bonus" if required

  4. #4129
    Quote Originally Posted by Osaka001 View Post
    Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.

    One alternate is , write the bond and file I-485, Once you get GC or eligible for AC21, manage your client to terminate your contract. Then you can sit at home ask your employer to pay. They can't pay you for free. problem solved.
    Yes you have suggested good valid alternative.

    Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.
    I don't think within 180 days of filing I485 there will be any rfe requesting any company documents as I have already provided valid EVL and paystubs at the time of filing. On 181 day of filing I485 I am going to invoke AC21 and will be free from any obligation.

    I don't know in which US-State such bond/contract are valid and not valid as I am not an expert of US law. But too be safe side I always aviod to sign on dotted line.
    [I]EB3 PD: Dec/21/2007
    EB2 PD: April/01/2009
    Center : TSC
    485 MD: Nov/30/2011 (with lawyer covering letter requesting to convert/interfile/port with EB3 priority date to EB2 category)
    485 RD: Dec/1/2011. 485 ND: Dec/13/2011
    FP Walk in Done: Dec/27/2011. (FP App. Date: Jan/18/2011)
    EAD/AP: Feb/10/2012
    On June/22/2008 USCIS issued new (notice of approval) I140 with EB2 category and PD Dec/21/2007
    GC: Aug/19/2013

  5. #4130
    Friends, Quick question about a possible scenario...

    My PD is EB2I - 12-Dec-2007 and 6 years on H1 is expiring on May 15th 2012. Even though I would get EAD prior to my H1 expiration, there is a possibility that my approved 140 could be revoked by USCIS due to financial misrepresentation by the company. Due to this, I am applying for my H1 extension on the basis of approved 140. Most likely my 485 would be adjudicated only after 4 or 5 months from now based on my priority date. If my H1 is approved first based on 140 and later the 140 is revoked at 485 adjudication stage, will I be able to continue working on the H1 until the new expiry date or does it invalidate the H1 extension received. Any thoughts please?

  6. #4131
    Thanks Osaka001....good to know.

    Quote Originally Posted by Osaka001 View Post
    Yes , they are valid, the rules vary from state to state, In california the rules are not tight. But in NY same bond is valid.

    Most of the time , they quote this amount as filing and some misc expenses, they will go to arbitrage courts.

    I have my colleage in CA, but his employer in NY, he filed bond for 18 months, and he left after 6 months on H1, then their employer filed case in the arb court, the judge ordered to pay prorated amount, he had to pay around 9K.

    In my personal case, I wrote a bond with my employer for 18 months with 15K, on H1 in CA, I got offer from my client in 14th month of the contract, then I moved becoz of economy.

    My employer sent lawyer notice for the amount 15K, not even prorated amount, but luckily, there was a DOL audit going on for some people on bench, then I sent a email to him, stating his company is not paying some of the employees on bench and DOL audit etc for the reason to leave the company. After that , I did not see any mails from him, this is 2008.
    PD - 9/13/2007, EAD Approved - 12/20, EAD Cards Received - 12/27/2011, 485 - 02/13/2012

  7. #4132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reader View Post
    Friends, Quick question about a possible scenario...

    My PD is EB2I - 12-Dec-2007 and 6 years on H1 is expiring on May 15th 2012. Even though I would get EAD prior to my H1 expiration, there is a possibility that my approved 140 could be revoked by USCIS due to financial misrepresentation by the company. Due to this, I am applying for my H1 extension on the basis of approved 140. Most likely my 485 would be adjudicated only after 4 or 5 months from now based on my priority date. If my H1 is approved first based on 140 and later the 140 is revoked at 485 adjudication stage, will I be able to continue working on the H1 until the new expiry date or does it invalidate the H1 extension received. Any thoughts please?
    Reader,
    If H1B is approved before 140 revoked, your H1 will remain valid for the duration approved.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  8. #4133
    Quote Originally Posted by username View Post
    Yes you have suggested good valid alternative.

    Why would you take risk filing on your own, If any RFE raises about company, you would be in trouble.
    I don't think within 180 days of filing I485 there will be any rfe requesting any company documents as I have already provided valid EVL and paystubs at the time of filing. On 181 day of filing I485 I am going to invoke AC21 and will be free from any obligation.

    I don't know in which US-State such bond/contract are valid and not valid as I am not an expert of US law. But too be safe side I always aviod to sign on dotted line.
    I am not expert on I-485 process, I myself waiting to file AoS, I know there are less chances for RFE at 485 stage, but my point view is, I could see many cost effective ways to break the bond than addressing 485 related issues.

    my 2 cents.

  9. #4134
    That's why I call this system a slavery system.

    From the surface, it does not look like a slavery system, but deep inside it is a slavery system. GC in US is not based on the merits of an applicant, but based on whether this person can be a dog of his/her employer for as long as ten years! During this process the government grants the employers all the previlege to hide approved documents and give zero right to the applicant before 485 stage. You can not even figure out whether they really filed anything for you and you have to stay in darkness for many years. With the minimum pay, many applicants have to stay on the same position for so many years. It's indeed a slavery system, especially for EB3 folks. Sorry to say that, but it is the truth of this system: maximize the power of employers and attorneys, minimize the rights of applicants, lock the applicants as long as they can.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    GC in US itself is conditonal unlike other countries granting PR based on educational qualifications.

    Since the GC is offered purely based upon the job position of the particular company with an intention to work in the position on a permanent basis I dont think this could be challenged.

    Just my point of view leaving the rest to Gurus.

  10. #4135
    Quote Originally Posted by qblogfan View Post
    That's why I call this system a slavery system.

    From the surface, it does not look like a slavery system, but deep inside it is a slavery system. GC in US is not based on the merits of an applicant, but based on whether this person can be a dog of his/her employer for as long as ten years! During this process the government grants the employers all the previlege to hide approved documents and give zero right to the applicant before 485 stage. You can not even figure out whether they really filed anything for you and you have to stay in darkness for many years. With the minimum pay, many applicants have to stay on the same position for so many years. It's indeed a slavery system, especially for EB3 folks. Sorry to say that, but it is the truth of this system: maximize the power of employers and attorneys, minimize the rights of applicants, lock the applicants as long as they can.
    It is a version of Indentured Servitude...

    Do ur time to get your plastic...

    EB1 - 6 to 8 Months
    EB2 - 8 Months to 4 Years
    EB3 - 4 to 70 Years

    My expression is not an Endorsement of the current systm.

  11. #4136
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    Quote Originally Posted by girishgkulkarni View Post
    It is a version of Indentured Servitude...

    Do ur time to get your plastic...

    EB1 - 6 to 8 Months
    EB2 - 8 Months to 4 Years
    EB3 - 4 to 70 Years

    My expression is not an Endorsement of the current systm.
    Assuming the company files immediately and there are no contracts at the end. Im lucky that i love my job and get paid on par with others so I'm not in a hurry to change jobs...but its not pretty for most.

  12. #4137
    Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits .

    (i) General . The non-existence or other unavailability of required evidence creates a presumption of ineligibility. If a required document, such as a birth or marriage certificate, does not exist or cannot be obtained, an applicant or petitioner must demonstrate this and submit secondary evidence, such as church or school records, pertinent to the facts at issue. If secondary evidence also does not exist or cannot be obtained, the applicant or petitioner must demonstrate the unavailability of both the required docum ent and relevant secondary evidence, and submit two or more affidavits, sworn to or affirmed by persons who are not parties to the petition who have direct personal knowledge of the event and circumstances. Secondary evidence must overcome the unavailability of primary evidence, and affidavits must overcome the unavailability of both primary and secondary evidence.

    (4) Submitting copies of documents .
    Application and petition forms, and documents issued to support an application or petition (such as labor certifications, Form DS 2019, medical examinations, affidavits, formal consultations, letters of current employment and other statements) must be submitted in the original unless previously filed with USCIS. Official documents issued by the Department or by the former Immigration and Naturalization Service need not be submitted in the original unless required by USCIS. Unless otherwise required by the applicable regulation or form's instructions, a legible photocopy of any other supporting document may be submitted. Applicants and petitioners need only submit those original documents necessary to support the benefit sought. However, original documents submitted when not required will remain a part of the record. (Revised effective 6/18/07; 72 FR 19100 )

    http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/S...0-0-11565.html

  13. #4138
    I noticed on trackitt that PERM approvals have almost dried up and now are down to a trickle. Could the gurus please explain the impact of this? There may be none immediately, but I think it may, I stress may, result in more spillover in 2012 or early 2013.

  14. #4139
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    Quote Originally Posted by kd2008 View Post
    I noticed on trackitt that PERM approvals have almost dried up and now are down to a trickle. Could the gurus please explain the impact of this? There may be none immediately, but I think it may, I stress may, result in more spillover in 2012 or early 2013.
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    "This Fact Sheet presents statistics regarding Permanent Labor Certification program applications submitted during the first quarter of FY 2012."
    kd2008,

    We analysed FY-2011 PERM & 140 data back in November, you can check posts # 2569 & 2574.

    DOL December Factsheet shows further down trend in PERM certifications in Q1-FY2012. PERM certifications are down by 50% when compared to Q1-FY2011, in addition to increase in denial rate.

    If and when half-year data is available, we will have better picture for FY2012!.

    Bottom line, as long and EB1&EB2ROW demand is less than the number of VISAs available in given quarter, CO will be happy to continue QSP!
    Last edited by veni001; 01-21-2012 at 01:40 PM.
    Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.

  15. #4140
    Quote Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
    kd2008,

    We analysed FY-2011 PERM & 140 data back in November, you can check posts # 2569 & 2574.

    DOL December Factsheet shows further down trend in PERM certifications in Q1-FY2012. PERM certifications are down by 50% when compared to Q1-FY2011, in addition to increase in denial rate.

    If and when half-year data is available, we will have better picture for FY2012!.

    Bottom line, as long and EB1&EB2ROW demand is less than the number of VISAs available in given quarter, CO will be happy to continue QSP!
    Thank you for the quick analysis, veni!

  16. #4141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kanmani View Post
    Submitting secondary evidence and affidavits .

    (i) General . The non-existence or other unavailability of required evidence creates a presumption of ineligibility. If a required document, such as a birth or marriage certificate, does not exist or cannot be obtained, an applicant or petitioner must demonstrate this and submit secondary evidence, such as church or school records, pertinent to the facts at issue. If secondary evidence also does not exist or cannot be obtained, the applicant or petitioner must demonstrate the unavailability of both the required docum ent and relevant secondary evidence, and submit two or more affidavits, sworn to or affirmed by persons who are not parties to the petition who have direct personal knowledge of the event and circumstances. Secondary evidence must overcome the unavailability of primary evidence, and affidavits must overcome the unavailability of both primary and secondary evidence.

    (4) Submitting copies of documents .
    Application and petition forms, and documents issued to support an application or petition (such as labor certifications, Form DS 2019, medical examinations, affidavits, formal consultations, letters of current employment and other statements) must be submitted in the original unless previously filed with USCIS. Official documents issued by the Department or by the former Immigration and Naturalization Service need not be submitted in the original unless required by USCIS. Unless otherwise required by the applicable regulation or form's instructions, a legible photocopy of any other supporting document may be submitted. Applicants and petitioners need only submit those original documents necessary to support the benefit sought. However, original documents submitted when not required will remain a part of the record. (Revised effective 6/18/07; 72 FR 19100 )

    http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/S...0-0-11565.html
    From memory some one posted clarifications link from Rajiv Khanna that 'copies' of affidavits will suffice. My friends have got affidavit copies based on attorneys advice. I am not contesting above link but just stating what I have seen/ heard.
    Last edited by suninphx; 01-21-2012 at 03:22 PM.

  17. #4142
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    Quote Originally Posted by suninphx View Post
    From memory some one posted clarifications link from Rajiv Khanna that 'copies' of affidavits will suffice. My friends have got affidavit copies only based attorneys advice. I am not contesting above link but just stating what I have seen/ heard.
    fragomen told me copies of all documents are fine. I don't know about the EVL since they are working with my Firm directly to get it.

  18. #4143
    Is QSP really happening in this quarter? Unless I'm mistaken we have seen only a few approvals beyond July 07 this month
    Last edited by natvyas; 01-21-2012 at 04:12 PM.

  19. #4144
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    Quote Originally Posted by natvyas View Post
    Is QSP really happening in this quarter? Unless I'm mistaken we have seen only a few approvals beyond July 07 this month
    natvyas,

    There may be something of a lull at the moment.

    Most easily approvable cases from the old backlog have probably been approved by now and it is still a little early for the majority of even October new filings to be ready to adjudicate, if you consider even 4 months processing time. Those seen to date had pretty short times by normal standards. About 19% of EB2-I October filers have been approved to date.

    We don't know the level of visas that are going to be available for QSP this quarter, but it can't continue at the rate seen in Q1 (or at least it is very unlikely). Having essentially cleared the backlog, CO may wait a little longer to determine that, since it will affect how much he has to retrogress dates.

    EB2-ROW appears to be using less visas, but EB1 continues to consume a worryingly large number.
    Last edited by Spectator; 01-21-2012 at 11:06 PM.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  20. #4145
    Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for EB2 I.

    1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep. end. Of this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than India and China).
    2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end, assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas for EB1 & EB2 are utilized by Sep. 2012 end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012 end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013. In other words, they need to evaluate and process about 8K EB1+EB2 I-485 cases per month on an on-going basis to ensure that the annual quota is not wasted.
    3. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
    4. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
    5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low for the years 2008, 2009, 2010 from non-India/China countries whose PD was current (may be due to recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China. A number of employers were not even ready to employ H1B candidates in the last few years let alone process GCs for them. So, demand from India/China applicants is also not expected to be huge.
    6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from some one's count of TSC filings, about 6K I485s (all EBs put together) in Dec./Jan.), it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
    7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than India and China.
    8. Therefore, my expectation is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins in order to absorb the spillover from EB2 ROW low demand and EB1 excess absorption. If the number of filings in Feb and March do not increase substantially to build up sufficient inventory for FY 2012, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see any need for retrogression until sufficient inventory is built up by USCIS/DOS.

    Is there any flaw in my analysis?
    Last edited by vgraj1; 01-22-2012 at 02:03 AM.

  21. #4146
    vgraj1 I think that the 80K you mention above for EB1 and EB2 ... is ok. But need to understand that EB1 consumes almost all of their quota. And then there is EB2ROW which will ocnsume about 3/4th of their quota. Thus EB2IC are dependent on mostly EB5 and EB2ROW for spillover - which over last few years has been around 20-25K per year (including EB2IC allocation of 6K).

    As per movement - since the movement is discretionary, anything could happen. However if we hold CO true to his word, then we should actually expect retro as soon as next bulletin and as late as the one after. The reason being, the people who filed in Oct 2011 onwards should start hitting DOS pipeline anytime now.

    Quote Originally Posted by vgraj1 View Post
    Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for EB2 I.

    1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep. end. Of this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than India and China).
    2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end, assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas for EB1 & EB2 are utilized by Sep. 2012 end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012 end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013. In other words, they need to evaluate and process about 8K EB1+EB2 I-485 cases per month on an on-going basis to ensure that the annual quota is not wasted.
    3. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
    4. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
    5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low for the years 2008, 2009, 2010 from non-India/China countries whose PD was current (may be due to recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China. A number of employers were not even ready to employ H1B candidates in the last few years let alone process GCs for them. So, demand from India/China applicants is also not expected to be huge.
    6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from some one's count of TSC filings, about 6K I485s (all EBs put together) in Dec./Jan.), it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
    7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than India and China.
    8. Therefore, my expectation is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins in order to absorb the spillover from EB2 ROW low demand and EB1 excess absorption. If the number of filings in Feb and March do not increase substantially to build up sufficient inventory for FY 2012, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see any need for retrogression until sufficient inventory is built up by USCIS/DOS.

    Is there any flaw in my analysis?
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  22. #4147
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    vgraj1,

    I think you need to be aware of the limitations of using the USCIS Inventory data for Categories and Countries that are Current.

    The USCIS Inventory only shows I-485 applications submitted where the underlying I-140 has also been approved.

    For the old EB2-IC backlog, it was quite accurate, because it was almost static and the cases were so old that virtually all underlying I-140 had been approved.

    That is not the case for EB1 and EB2-ROW.

    Cases where the I-140 is approved and any I-485 is also approved between Inventories will never appear in any Inventory.

    Around 75% of EB1C (which has made up 50% of total EB1 approvals) and EB2-ROW cases are filed concurrently. EB1A has quite low concurrent filing and EB1B is somewhere in between.

    The I-485 cases associated with I-140 cases that are still pending will not appear in the Inventory.

    Therefore, for Categories / Countries are Current, the USCIS Inventory will under report the true numbers IMO.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  23. #4148
    Hi Spectator,

    Thanks for your response. My thought was that for the countries whose PD is current, the applicants would have already filed their I-485s in 2008, 2009, 2010 before Sep.2011, and so their I-485 inventory is reliable, and low because of the recession. Anyway, I understand that it is all a guessing name at this point, and it depends on the rate of filings in Feb/March 2012 from EB 2 I/C who have become current, and how much of spillover has been utilized.

  24. #4149
    Gurus: IF QSP is applied, do u expect the Nov filers to be cleared in the coming month or so...would the CO then retrogress to Nov1st? If QSP is not applied, is it correct to say that the dates have to be retrogressed to a much earlier date by April?

  25. #4150
    For Oct EB2 I filers. very few approvals after the first week of January. Now we are seeing RFEs for some of the filers but not many approvals. I think this implies, they are pre-adjudicating the remaining applications pending availability of Visa numbers. The Jan first week approvals were likely coming from the release of the second quarter quota (now exhausted). If this is true we may not see many more approvals till the end of March.
    As they accrue more pre-adjudicated applications, the chances of retrogression increases. Hopefully another month of forward movement, but then retrogression seems imminent.

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