
Originally Posted by
vgraj1
Based on analysis of I-485 inventory data as on 30-Sep-11 released by USCIS, I think there is ample scope of PD movement for EB2 I.
1. The total I-485 inventory of EB1 plus EB2 cases was 39K as at Sep. end. Of this 15K was for 2011 filings (which will be from countries other than India and China).
2. USCIS needs to build an I-485 inventory of 90K by April 2012 end, assuming a lead-time of 4 months for USCIS to process the I-485 applications and a rejection rate of 10% so that the 80K visas for EB1 & EB2 are utilized by Sep. 2012 end. In addition, they also need to a keep an inventory of 30K at Sep.2012 end for processing in the first quarter of FY 2013. In other words, they need to evaluate and process about 8K EB1+EB2 I-485 cases per month on an on-going basis to ensure that the annual quota is not wasted.
3. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB1 inventory was 151, 295, 3495 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
4. For the years 2008, 2009, 2010, EB2 inventory was 703, 1167, 3561 from non-India/China applicants whose PD was current in those years.
5. Because the EB1 and EB2 demand/inventory is very low for the years 2008, 2009, 2010 from non-India/China countries whose PD was current (may be due to recession), it leaves a huge amount of spillover for India and China. A number of employers were not even ready to employ H1B candidates in the last few years let alone process GCs for them. So, demand from India/China applicants is also not expected to be huge.
6. If the I-485 filings from India & China do not increase substantially to eat up the entire spillover (which seems so from some one's count of TSC filings, about 6K I485s (all EBs put together) in Dec./Jan.), it will be necessary for DOS to advance the priority date.
7. The inventory of I-485 in 2009 is still low. It improved in 2010, but the bigger increase came in 2011 with 15K filings from countries other than India and China.
8. Therefore, my expectation is for EB2 I to move to 1-Jan-2011 in March and to 1-Jul-2011 in April visa bulletins in order to absorb the spillover from EB2 ROW low demand and EB1 excess absorption. If the number of filings in Feb and March do not increase substantially to build up sufficient inventory for FY 2012, it may become current in May visa bulletin. I do not see any need for retrogression until sufficient inventory is built up by USCIS/DOS.
Is there any flaw in my analysis?