I did perform your analysis for Nov. 2010, I got 6529. Assuming that the only increase in Nov 2011 was EB2IC and other other EB category filings were the same - a big assumption,Originally Posted by mrdeeds
We get 7551 - 6529 = 1022. That is indeed a very low number.
other approach:
TSC + NSC Nov. 2010 = 17417
TSC + NSC Nov. 2011 = 20975
Increase = 3558 ...attributed all to EB2IC filings
Last edited by kd2008; 01-19-2012 at 02:46 PM.
So just for kicks, I am looking at Spec's http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines
Assume that PERM approvals were taking 3 months in 2011. Assume that 140 another 2 months, 5 months total. So a ROW + Mexico / Philippines person filing 485 in November 2011 would have a PD of say June 2011. Looking at the data above, that's 1200 PERM total ROW apps. Conservatively, let's assume that the EB(everything except EB3) / EB3 ratio is 50% for ROW. Since the cutoff for EB3 ROW is in 2006, they would not be filing 485s in Nov 2011. So lets say 50% * 1200 = 600 is the number of EB1+EB2+any other current category filers in Nov 2011. Going back to my previous calculation, the number of EB2IC then becomes 7551 - 600 = 6951.
So of the 7624 IC PERMS that were filed between Jul 15 - Nov 1 2011, 6951 485s were filed. That's essentially the OR as I understand it. So the OR = 6951/7624 = 0.91.
So based on http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ation-of-Terms, the DD would be 100% - (0.91/1.275) = 28.6% which is smack in between Teddy's 21% & Spec's 37%. Note that 1.275 here is Teddy's TF.
I don't know..maybe I am curve fitting here...
Last edited by mrdeeds; 01-19-2012 at 03:01 PM.
I would suggest to file both I140 and I485 together. you get two benefits with that.
1) Both of them stay together and as far as i know they will be handled by the same officer (this is what happens in TSC). Once the I485 is adjudicated and I140 is approved you will be granted GC.
2) Concurrent filing in TSC may lead to faster approval. Please look at the below link regarding the Pilot Program which TSC had couple of years back. I am not sure if it is still there but there are chances you may get it sooner.
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_tscpls.html
Hope this will help. There might be a valid reason why your lawyer doesn't want to file it together. I would suggest follow up with him to find a good reason for not doing the concurrent filing.
Hope this will help
Section 245 (K) enables an applicant to apply for AOS, even if s/he has been out of status or worked without authorization for less than 180 days.
However the USCIS can issue an RFE if there are any gaps in the immigration status. (I personally know of a case where an RFE was issued to explain a gap of 2.5 weeks in status. He got his GC when he explained his situation)
If all documents are available, it is advisable to chronologically include them in your application packet.
My $.02.
I have been thinking about this approach and have come up with a (pretty dodgy) calculation.
Firstly, lets assume that September 2011 figures represent the baseline. That was a month where the Cut Off Dates had stalled and relatively few new EB2-IC applications would have been submitted.
Secondly, let's assume that the increase in applications is solely due to new EB cases. In this case, the % of EB cases is higher than the normal 36%.
The number of EB cases would actually be ((Total Apps - New Apps) * 36%) + New Apps
October 2011 increase over September 2011 = 1,502
November 2011 increase over September 2011 = 4,917
This gives numbers of EB cases of 7,260 for October 2011 and 10,675 for November 2011. The % of EB cases of the total rises to 41% and 51% respectively.
Those figures also include all EB1 cases and EB2-Non IC cases. The number of new EB3 cases will be extremely low as all Countries are retrogressed before July 2007.
Lets say EB1 will use 36,000 visas this year - that is 3,000 per month.
Lets say EB2-Non IC will use 22,000 visas this year - that is 1,833 per month.
Non EB2-IC cases will therefore represent 4,833 cases per month of the total EB receipts, with EB2-IC being the remainder.
That gives EB2-IC receipts of :
October 2011 = 7,260 - 4,833 = 2,427
November 2011 = 10,675 - 4,833 = 5,842
The calculation has too many assumptions for my liking. I've presented it to stimulate discussion or to help people think about the problem.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
excerpts from 245 (k) memo,
(4) Counting against the 180 days timeframe in (d)(1).
(A) General Guidelines. If the adjudicator determines that an employment-based adjustment of status applicant described in (d)(2) above is subject to any of the bars to adjustment of status set forth in Sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7), or (c)(8), then the adjudicator must determine whether the aggregate period in which the alien failed to continuously maintain lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of the alien’s admission since the date of alien’s last lawful admission to the United States is 180 days or less.
The guidance below describes the periods of time to be examined for purposes of calculating time against the 180-day period.
• The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.
Thanks for detailed calculations Spec.
As some of people who got current in Oct/Nov are still filing, the above numbers represent the (with some range) lower bound of filings - is that a fair statement?
Spec, that's a good way to look at it from the Sep baseline. So the OR here for Nov 2011 is 5842/7624 = 0.77 which is closer to your 0.8.
I agree, this approach has far too many assumptions. But the good finding is that the OR is staying between the 0.8 - 0.9 range. Hopefully confirming / reinforcing the basis for your and Teddy's other assumptions.
Suninphx and others, I am just curious. Is it REALLY true that people would not be filing in the very month that they become eligible for? I read comments about lawyers being busy, HR slow, travel etc. But it just boggles my mind that folks that have been waiting for years to become current will take a chance of retrogression and not do everything they can to file. I just can't digest it...
I think the majority have filed in the month they become eligible. There are 2 reasons, one you have stated in your post and second - the further movement in next bulletin was never guaranteed and there was always some talk about possible retrogression. In such a situation people dont want to take a risk.
There might be some for whom the circumstances were unavoidable and even those folks would have fought tooth and nail to get their applications in.
KD, I think Spec's approach similar to your approach of using the increases is a better approach as that uses the Sep 2011 as the baseline.
Yeah that seems to be case. Check RDs for some Oct Nov PDs in trackitt.
They are not necessarily particularly good metrics, but to date, according to Trackitt, around 10% of October VB applicants have a RD after October and about 8% of November VB applicants have a RD after November.
If processing speed of law firms is a problem, the numbers start to ramp up considerably after that.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
This is true for some folks. I filed 6 weeks after being current. I know atleast 2 colleagues who have had similar delays. Our lawyer said he will file in December but since Jan bulletin also moved forward they slowed down. It was tough time for us, I also considered filing it through another lawyer. But finally they seem to have filed last week.
I hope and pray that things go smooth going forward.
Thanks GC-Utopic and ChampU for quick responses.
On trackitt a Nov. Indian guy got 485 approved already!
TSC
Priority Date: 07 Oct 2007
Application Filed: 01 Nov 2011
USCIS Received Date: 02 Nov 2011
primary
His EAD/AP is not approved yet, but he already got 485 approved. He is sure his approval is 485, not EAD/AP.
It looks like some November cases will be approved soon!
I hope and pray for you as well that things go smooth going forward. You make a good point goforgreen. Since the next months bulletin is generally available before the 10th of the current month, if the next month bulletin does not show retrogression, lawyers / companies / folks may take it easy. That makes sense.
Thanks everyone for clarifying.
Walk in didnot work - they told us that dallas center was booked till end of jan.
We didnot request for a change of date , my wife says that she feels we can make itI am skeptical though.
Question - what would be the last day uptill which I can re-schedule my appointmnet, if we were to ?
I hate rumors but there you go ...from Greg Siskind
http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...d-chinese.html
I guess at this point it is better than nothing. Do we know his track record? Is he reliable?
Pasting it from CM's blog : ( He expects movement in March & April also).
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.
Below is Ron G take on Eb2 moment and HR3012.....i also dont know how it is going to be...next 2 bulletions will be eagerly waited by all Eb2 folks...whether it brings happiness or not have to wait and see...
"Personally, and this is just my gut feeling (based on the available information), I expect to see the China/India EB2 cutoff date continue to move forward at a rate of about one year per month. It should become current or near-current no later than May. At that point, we will either have enough applications in the pipeline to use up the annual quota, or we won't. If we do, then the cutoff date will start to retrogress, ultimately settling in at around mid-2009. If we don't have enough applications in the pipeline, then we will see a fall down of numbers into Worldwide EB3 - where there are more than enough pending applications to use up the quota. "
"Thanks. I don't know what the Senate intends to do. The inmates are running the asylum. The Senate is the only institution in American where a 41% minority has full veto power over the majority. Also, as a result of really silly 18th century rules, a single demented Senator can block action by the entire Senate. As a practical matter, the USCIS failure to act on pending AOS applications is having the same result, for the most part, that HR3012 would have. China/India EB2 cutoff dates are advancing rapidly and may well become "current" in the next few months. It won't last, but it will give everyone with approved EB2 eligible PERMs an opportunity to file. "
If DoS advance the dates in March and April with 1 year advancement in each month, as they did it last 2 months, then they really need to slowdown and wait for people to clear PERM :-). No offence.
It's a very reputable law firm , on par with the best ones ala murthy and co
Need help. Thanks in advance.
I have a question. I have sent affidavits from parents in place of birth certificate to the lawyer. He is preparing AOS forms. I have also applied for birth certificate a month ago and i might get it in a week or so. Do any of the AOS/EAD forms have a field to mention the proof for birth certificate or is it just a supporting document. My concern is that if i get my birth certificate, can i send it to my lawyer to include it with my application or will he have to re-do the form preparation.
AFAIK,
No B.C -- get NABC plus affidavits, only affidavits won't do it,
B.C registration after one year of birth--- need affidavits plus secondary evidence,,,
B.C registration date less than one year of birth--- ideal,, issue date doesn't matter,,,
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