General Immigration Discussion

[bieber]

Just to keep the main thread EB2 Predictions to it's purpose, I hope we can have general discussion here

[Spectator]

An interesting article, highlighted by Ron Gotcher. http://cei.org/op-eds-and-articles/n...se-immigration

Nothing especially new, but good to see more and more like this putting the case for EB immigration.

In a way, it's a shame the focus is on H1B rather than Permanent Residence. They ought to make the point that without a timely path, people still won't choose to come to the USA, especially in the future.

[qesehmk]

Interesting indeed. I guess any rational argument like this gets unheard in light of recession and post-911-american-mindset both of which are fueling anti-immigrant sentiments.

But of we really try to dig into the question - whether US reallyneeds higher immigration and why - there are some things that are not as nice as we would love them to be.

Consider this: The best place to immigrate on EARTH IMHO is the USA. There is no other country that is as immigrants friendly, accepting and a place where human potential can be realized in better manner.

The key determinant in a country's relative elevation in competitiveness (and consequently living standard) is human development. So where does human development stand in India or China? And more importantly what are the determinants of human development? I think the determinants are freedom, innovation, capitalism, property rights and rule of law.

If you look at the way internet is controlled in China and the way Indian legal system is seriously backlogged ... it convinces you that the progress is really lopsided and the LCD (lowest common denominator) is not necessarily moving up with sufficient speed. Anyway ... so while US has its systemic problems ... I think the core competencies of US are so strong that any "supposed" loss of human capital is inconsequential. Even in absence of anti-immigrant sentiment the policy makers don't have sufficient information to really overhaul the immigration from economic point of view.

Some times some people say you need immigration to support GDP growth target. Typically economists target GDP growth at 3% of which 1% is productivity and 2% is population growth. Now no advance country can achieve 2% population growth and so the policy makers can target immigration as a tool to boost GDP (which they already do). But if you look at the whole IT revolution of last decade or two, it did result into much higher productivity than traditional 1%. So again they never really had to look at immigration as a significant source of GDP growth.

Now going forward though as baby boomers retire, one would've thought (rather wished) that to replace those workers one needs immigration. But hey! don't forget the 8-9M jobs lost (20M by some accounts) and the lost savings and home equities because of which the retired workforce is going to have to work longer than planned.... so does US really need additional workforce?

Guys ... this is just another perspective I am putting in front of you. I do not claim to know the true answer to the question - "Does US need higher level of immigration and why?". But an informed mind helps calm nerves.

An interesting article, highlighted by Ron Gotcher. http://cei.org/op-eds-and-articles/n...se-immigration

Nothing especially new, but good to see more and more like this putting the case for EB immigration.

In a way, it's a shame the focus is on H1B rather than Permanent Residence. They ought to make the point that without a timely path, people still won't choose to come to the USA, especially in the future.

[TeluguBidda]

Interesting indeed. I guess any rational argument like this gets unheard in light of recession and post-911-american-mindset both of which are fueling anti-immigrant sentiments.

But of we really try to dig into the question - whether US reallyneeds higher immigration and why - there are some things that are not as nice as we would love them to be.

Consider this: The best place to immigrate on EARTH IMHO is the USA. There is no other country that is as immigrants friendly, accepting and a place where human potential can be realized in better manner.

The key determinant in a country's relative elevation in competitiveness (and consequently living standard) is human development. So where does human development stand in India or China? And more importantly what are the determinants of human development? I think the determinants are freedom, innovation, capitalism, property rights and rule of law.

If you look at the way internet is controlled in China and the way Indian legal system is seriously backlogged ... it convinces you that the progress is really lopsided and the LCD (lowest common denominator) is not necessarily moving up with sufficient speed. Anyway ... so while US has its systemic problems ... I think the core competencies of US are so strong that any "supposed" loss of human capital is inconsequential. Even in absence of anti-immigrant sentiment the policy makers don't have sufficient information to really overhaul the immigration from economic point of view.

Some times some people say you need immigration to support GDP growth target. Typically economists target GDP growth at 3% of which 1% is productivity and 2% is population growth. Now no advance country can achieve 2% population growth and so the policy makers can target immigration as a tool to boost GDP (which they already do). But if you look at the whole IT revolution of last decade or two, it did result into much higher productivity than traditional 1%. So again they never really had to look at immigration as a significant source of GDP growth.

Now going forward though as baby boomers retire, one would've thought (rather wished) that to replace those workers one needs immigration. But hey! don't forget the 8-9M jobs lost (20M by some accounts) and the lost savings and home equities because of which the retired workforce is going to have to work longer than planned.... so does US really need additional workforce?

Guys ... this is just another perspective I am putting in front of you. I do not claim to know the true answer to the question - "Does US need higher level of immigration and why?". But an informed mind helps calm nerves.

Honestly, your post appeared more valuable to me than the reading from the original URL related to the article.

I really like this website, it comprises of people who are respectful to each other, make / share knowledgeable inputs. Thanks to you in particular, for coming up with this website.

[gcseeker]

Q

Your post was very well put. Economists do talk about the minimum replacement rate of 1% and growth rate of 2% as you mentioned. It is also true the growth of asia is being driven by the population rates of these countries where there is an huge population of youth in the age group of 18-35 and comparatively less elder population which needs to be taken care of. Japan on the other hand which has been stuck in a deflationary loop since the 90s has an huge elderly population. In fact it can be argued the economic boom of the Usa during the phase of 1960-1990 was based on the young baby boomer generation at that point.

Economics argues that young populations are the biggest consumers and in consumer driven economies this will lead to booming credit based economies.Now coming to the present day Usa ...the baby boomers will no longer be retiring at 2012 and will be retiring much later at 2020 .Before the recession there used to be articles periodically in the press which claimed once the boomers retired USA will require a large immigrant workforce to meet its needs.The recession wiped out a lot of jobs which are not coming back anytime soon and I no longer beleive so many immigrants would be required to meet those needs.

Also the two parties in Usa do not want to seriously take up immigration reform. The democrats appear to act like they want to reform the system ,but in reality all they want is the Latino vote share. That is the reason they keep on linking the Immigration reform for Tech professionals/Master's students with the comprehensive immigration reform primarily targetting the Latino's. The republican base is in no mood to even think about immigration reform at this point because they feel illegal immigrants are an burden on the system and they do not want to pay for any more people to come and stay.

Given the above scenarios of post recession job loss and anti immigration sentiment being present strongly ....I would not expect any bills reforming the system to be taken up before 2013.Not atleast in 2012 which is an election year and it would be a big IF even in 2013......Also the economy is due for one more crash since Mr Bernanke is busy blowing one more inflationary bubble and probably couple of years down the road it will again since the structural problems have not been eliminated.Anti immigration stand will be an convenient smoke screen for the powers to be to continue down the same road.

Also economic growth cycles shift from one empire to the other historically. Spain was a superpower with its conquest of the americas in the 16th and 17th century. Britain took over as an global power in the 18th and early 19th.With world war 2 the rise of America began and the new century belongs to India and China.Every estimate of the world bank shows the middle class in India will reach 50-60% share in the coming two decades.This in itself should clean up the LCD and also bring in prosperity .

[qesehmk]

GCseeker

Thanks. It is a fascinating topic. With respect to who will be the superpower in this century ... no doubt China will be there and sooner or later India too. Just like in stock markets there is something known as price discovery - the same thing will happen with India and China and their growth will accelerate further. However one of the thing that is preventing it today is the lack of certainty (political economic conflicts).

However there is a bitter truth too - Today's growth is fuelled by the mere fact that they are so down below there. They are playing in a space where nobody wants to play. But there will come a time when they will have to butt heads with competition from the west. eg. S Korea is already in that space with its companies like Samsung and Hyundai. Then it becomes really tough. The good news is ... their mere size becomes a competitive advantage.

I think that is where they will have to develop same or similar core competencies that US has if they wish to come to the same living standard. India clearly has significant advantage there. China with its communism .. God knows how it works today ..... will have some hiccups transitioning to an open society.

My uneducated 2 cents... as people sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for teh visa bulletin

[getgreensoon]

Q

Your post was very well put. Economists do talk about the minimum replacement rate of 1% and growth rate of 2% as you mentioned. It is also true the growth of asia is being driven by the population rates of these countries where there is an huge population of youth in the age group of 18-35 and comparatively less elder population which needs to be taken care of. Japan on the other hand which has been stuck in a deflationary loop since the 90s has an huge elderly population. In fact it can be argued the economic boom of the Usa during the phase of 1960-1990 was based on the young baby boomer generation at that point.

Economics argues that young populations are the biggest consumers and in consumer driven economies this will lead to booming credit based economies.Now coming to the present day Usa ...the baby boomers will no longer be retiring at 2012 and will be retiring much later at 2020 .Before the recession there used to be articles periodically in the press which claimed once the boomers retired USA will require a large immigrant workforce to meet its needs.The recession wiped out a lot of jobs which are not coming back anytime soon and I no longer beleive so many immigrants would be required to meet those needs.

Also the two parties in Usa do not want to seriously take up immigration reform. The democrats appear to act like they want to reform the system ,but in reality all they want is the Latino vote share. That is the reason they keep on linking the Immigration reform for Tech professionals/Master's students with the comprehensive immigration reform primarily targetting the Latino's. The republican base is in no mood to even think about immigration reform at this point because they feel illegal immigrants are an burden on the system and they do not want to pay for any more people to come and stay.

Given the above scenarios of post recession job loss and anti immigration sentiment being present strongly ....I would not expect any bills reforming the system to be taken up before 2013.Not atleast in 2012 which is an election year and it would be a big IF even in 2013......Also the economy is due for one more crash since Mr Bernanke is busy blowing one more inflationary bubble and probably couple of years down the road it will again since the structural problems have not been eliminated.Anti immigration stand will be an convenient smoke screen for the powers to be to continue down the same road.

Also economic growth cycles shift from one empire to the other historically. Spain was a superpower with its conquest of the americas in the 16th and 17th century. Britain took over as an global power in the 18th and early 19th.With world war 2 the rise of America began and the new century belongs to India and China.Every estimate of the world bank shows the middle class in India will reach 50-60% share in the coming two decades.This in itself should clean up the LCD and also bring in prosperity .

Very well put post. Developed world has a lot of issues today that developing world can learn from. For example Japan: Aptly said, Japan has high proportion of old population and this has resulted in into many imbalances in their system . The Japanese government has alway used the high savings rate in the Japanese society to fund its deficits. As long as the population was young, this worked well but now that people are using this money, the government is struggling with its deficits and finances. The deflationary spiral in Japan is also due to the way the society works and people's inclination to saving and not consuming (exactly opposite of the US). If you throw one million dollars in sombody's backyard and he does not spends it, there is no inflation.

Europe: What can be said: Southern Europe is stuggling with its own lavish life style on credit cards and loans from the northern brothers. Nothern brothers cannot kick out the southern slackers as their banks hold a lot of debt of southern states. A default could result in dominos greater in magnitude than Lehman Bros going under. So everything is in mess there.

China: A huge white elephant with immense people resources. Export driven economy but people reluctant to consume as much as westerners do for the same disposable income in PPP. A developing Japan. How long the currency pegging will help depends on how tolerant other developed nations are.

US: If you throw a million dollars in someone's backyard, they will borrow 2 million against it and the economy picks up very fast. This has not happened this timearound though. Babyboomers getting old, but a lot of non value added jobs are vanishing too. Count the number of realtor now vs. a few years ago. Construction now counts 2% of GDP vs 20% a few years ago. The entire world is ready to migrate to the US, if they need it. As such no scarcity of manpower. Very sophisticated financial markets and business environment. Still by far the best overall. Innovation engine of the world.

India: What to say about it. Very large aspiring population. People not reluctant to spend. New generation needs money to spend and not to save a whole lot. Open markets, judicial system smiliar to a lot of western countries (if it works), convertable currency, very less currency manipulation, democratic government (and ability to dismantle the government by people), free press (have you seen anything against the govt of China in their press ?) open any daily in india and you will see how strong the press is.
Lacks in debt markets and sophistication of financial markets. This impacts growth and innovation. Overall has great potential to emerge as a strong rival to china.

[gcseeker]

Getgreensoon

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and explaining some of the things in a more detailed way. I agree with all of them,just differ on some thoughts regarding the future of the USA. Right now USA is neck deep in debt and the only thing backing that debt is the universal currency status of the greenback.I know conspiracy theorists have been going gaga on internet forums for maybe the past decade predicting the demise of the greenback but it has not happenned so far.

Right now we have an potent cocktail mix of high debt ,slow growth , globalization and fundamental structural weakness in the US economy.There is something wrong with an economy where wallstreet driven casino markets are now accounting for 10-20% of service sector GDP. The proportion of actual goods being produced by this country has been steadily decreasing with most manufacturing having shifted overseas.
( 2010 GDP by composition for the Usa gives 76% to the services sector )
India in general and the BRICS countries in general do not have the same level of speculation driven share markets.Also these countries might be able to leapfrog the massive industralization phase and go straight to the service providing phase. For eg: Indian markets might adopt the tablets in a bigger way rather than adopt laptops . Electric cars also might make a big headway with most of the country making an leapfrog from two wheelers straight to EV vehicles.

Also as shown recently in the "Waiting for superman" movie education is really lagging in this country at the primary and secondary levels compared to even developing countries. Many children are not taking up hard sciences and the brightest and best out of Harvard and Yale are using their talents to maximize the profits of financial companies on wall street.

Also the most telling statistic is this. VC funding for silicon valley startups has dropped 81% in 2009.All of it has shifted to beijing and bangalore
source (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/...entry_id=49380)

Similar were the stories in 2010..clean tech sectors saw an slight upturn compared to 2009 but none of the VC funding levels have returned to anything close to pre 2007.These drops cannot be just explained away with the great recession II ...they are much more fundamental in nature.

It is just my personal opinion that USA will not be able to hold onto the mantle of an superpower by the end of this decade. The greenback also has been steadily eroding trading nowadays at 43 INR .The Australian dollar today trades at 48INR .Historically 10 years back the AUD used to trade at 33 INR.There have been a lot of articles which now say the decline of the dollar is imminent .

Sorry for rambling all over the place. I beleive all these factors combined will force the politicans of USA to be even more exclusivist in nature and they will take recourse to short sighted measures to protect the jobs of the local populace by not increasing immigration quotas.

Very well put post. Developed world has a lot of issues today that developing world can learn from. For example Japan: Aptly said, Japan has high proportion of old population and this has resulted in into many imbalances in their system . The Japanese government has alway used the high savings rate in the Japanese society to fund its deficits. As long as the population was young, this worked well but now that people are using this money, the government is struggling with its deficits and finances. The deflationary spiral in Japan is also due to the way the society works and people's inclination to saving and not consuming (exactly opposite of the US). If you throw one million dollars in sombody's backyard and he does not spends it, there is no inflation.

Europe: What can be said: Southern Europe is stuggling with its own lavish life style on credit cards and loans from the northern brothers. Nothern brothers cannot kick out the southern slackers as their banks hold a lot of debt of southern states. A default could result in dominos greater in magnitude than Lehman Bros going under. So everything is in mess there.

China: A huge white elephant with immense people resources. Export driven economy but people reluctant to consume as much as westerners do for the same disposable income in PPP. A developing Japan. How long the currency pegging will help depends on how tolerant other developed nations are.

US: If you throw a million dollars in someone's backyard, they will borrow 2 million against it and the economy picks up very fast. This has not happened this timearound though. Babyboomers getting old, but a lot of non value added jobs are vanishing too. Count the number of realtor now vs. a few years ago. Construction now counts 2% of GDP vs 20% a few years ago. The entire world is ready to migrate to the US, if they need it. As such no scarcity of manpower. Very sophisticated financial markets and business environment. Still by far the best overall. Innovation engine of the world.

India: What to say about it. Very large aspiring population. People not reluctant to spend. New generation needs money to spend and not to save a whole lot. Open markets, judicial system smiliar to a lot of western countries (if it works), convertable currency, very less currency manipulation, democratic government (and ability to dismantle the government by people), free press (have you seen anything against the govt of China in their press ?) open any daily in india and you will see how strong the press is.
Lacks in debt markets and sophistication of financial markets. This impacts growth and innovation. Overall has great potential to emerge as a strong rival to china.

[bieber]

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[qesehmk]

I agree w you. And remember H1 or GC by definition is meant where they can't find workers!

As per bringing back lost jobs etc .... I think there are conflicting objectives that various constituencies want. And over time government is now controllled by very small special interests which is making it difficult to keep sanity to the policy. A sane policy would be to let dollar devalue and let manufacturing pickup. But that economic policy is not supported by foreign policy objectives ... which dictates the need for a strong dollar.

p.s. - I am not an expert by any mean. Just a few uneducated thoughts really.

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[bieber]

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion'

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one

[qesehmk]

Wouldn't that shoot interest rates and weaken dollar?

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion'

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one

[gcseeker]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[qesehmk]

You are right. The only people who can make it happen (although the time is NOT ripe yet) are Corporations. People like Bill Gates have openly said that anybody should be allowed to work in US as long as there is a company to hire that person. No need for quotas.

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[bieber]

Wouldn't that shoot interest rates and weaken dollar?

dollar will not go weak because of no more printing and euro crisis. discount window funds rate can stay at .25 and interest rate movement will not impact the dollar.
if there is no growth in second half as anticipited, obama will be the 1 time president according to his own logic

[geterdone]

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf

[dreamer]

Very interesting testimonial, thanks for sharing!

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf

[geterdone]

Do you know what will happen after todays testimony? how long or what is the future of this? if they will listen to the three things that Bob stressed towards the end it will be a miracle, but miracles do happen.

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf
That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!

[soggadu]

Very interesting testimonial, thanks for sharing!

yes indeed... he got my vote when he mentioned the 2 point... dealing with legal and illegal immigration differently... for an average american immigration is always about illegal immigrants... thank you geterdone ( ur username is quite interesting ;-) ...)

[geterdone]

don't misunderstand my username---- it's from larry the cable guy......sorry for increasing the noise to signal ratio

[sha_kus]

I saw this testimony on C-Span. It looked like everybody did well in showing how much pain the indian and chinese waiting for green card. Ronil Hira was the only guy who looked anti-immigration.

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf

[soggadu]

Do you know what will happen after todays testimony? how long or what is the future of this? if they will listen to the three things that Bob stressed towards the end it will be a miracle, but miracles do happen.

nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7...0Testimony.pdf
That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!

What will happen is a million dollar question... testimonies like these have been given by so many including Bill the gates... these are mainly for bringing the awareness in the public and help the subcommittee to frame the bill... there have been sub committees like this before and there will be some going forward... but one thing is sure... Immigration reform should happen without bundling legals with illegals...

[natvyas]

I saw this testimony on C-Span. It looked like everybody did well in showing how much pain the indian and chinese waiting for green card. Ronil Hira and Brad smith where the only people who looked anti-immigration.

Correction Brad Smith was pro-legal immigration. He is from Microsoft and infact Sen. Sessions had a "go" at him.

[sha_kus]

Sorry .. I don't know why i wrote his name.. corrected pls..

Correction Brad Smith was pro-legal immigration. He is from Microsoft and infact Sen. Sessions had a "go" at him.

[vizcard]

As Obama put it "I need a dance partner on immigration".

Too many "head winds" here - 9+% unemployment (which is irrelevant but its all about politics), split Congress (which I feel will continue even after the next Congressional elections), etc.

In any case, nothing will happen on CIR till after the elections..... and that too IF Obama gets re-elected. Republicans are historically anti-immigration