EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[la_2002_ch]

Q,

THanks for the detailed reply. I have another question. What if the employer wants you to change the location of the job (same profile, same designation, same end client, same work but in a different state), before the 180 days of the I-485 filing? Will that pose an issue?

mysati,

I will try to answer some of these. Not sure I know everything.

#0 - H1B doesn't become instantly invalid. USCIS says that one needs to leave country immediately but in reality is quite lenient if the person finds another job.
#1 - If one had EAD and 485 is pending - then the person can legally stay until 485 is adjudicated. If employer withdraws 140 then 485 will of course be rejected. So post 180 days from 485 filing you are safe. But you MUST have a job in same or similar category the day 485 is adjudicated.
#2 Yes with EAD you can search another job/
#3 My understanding EAD is can be renewed without any proof of employment. But I may be wrong.
#4. No there shouldn't be any problems for naturalization if there was a layoff and you used EAD to gain another job in same / similar classification and then received you GC.
#5. Not travelling outside country would be a good idea. Staying on good terms with former employer would be good idea. As soon as you get a job use EAD and if possible transfer H1 and invoke AC21.

Hope this helps.

[nishant2200]

So photographs we send are not used anyways.

sun, they are used in case of EAD/AP when they are issued before FP. This is the case with many applicants, especially from NSC.

[suninphx]

sun, they are used in case of EAD/AP when they are issued before FP. This is the case with many applicants, especially from NSC.

Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

[nishant2200]

Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

good lord, things one has to go through (bhag bhag dk bose). I wear contacts

[RMS_V13]

RFE Could be as simple as a Birth certificate clarification or a vaccination clarification. keep your chin up!

Big T,
I guess you meant me ..3M...
I got RFE on 12 Jan...exactly 90 days after I got my receipt...63 days to get my EAD AP
Still waiting for physical RFE letter.
Lots of unforseen things happened in professional life as soon as news of being current was out, so kinda calmed down....went back to being lurker of this thread.
I wonder what's soggadu and Monica are upto these days..

[needid]

Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

[RMS_V13]

How do I know whether my app is being processed in NSC or TSC?
All I know is the Fedex package delivery location is Tempe Arizona?

Yeah thought so. Thanks Nishant.

BTW-when I searched online - there are some folks who submitted both (with and without glasses)

[qesehmk]

I guess its ok as long as the original intent for the move was a temporary one and the employer always wanted to move you back to the original loction.

Now it may so happen that after 180 days you can use AC21 (not employer). In that case I believe you don't have to file a new labor.

If the employer is not willing to say that hte move is temporary, then any such move prior to completion of 180 days since 485 filing would warrant a new labor.

Q,

THanks for the detailed reply. I have another question. What if the employer wants you to change the location of the job (same profile, same designation, same end client, same work but in a different state), before the 180 days of the I-485 filing? Will that pose an issue?

[la_2002_ch]

Thanks. This helps a lot.

I guess its ok as long as the original intent for the move was a temporary one and the employer always wanted to move you back to the original loction.

Now it may so happen that after 180 days you can use AC21 (not employer). In that case I believe you don't have to file a new labor.

If the employer is not willing to say that hte move is temporary, then any such move prior to completion of 180 days since 485 filing would warrant a new labor.

[krishnav]

RMS_V13,

You would know which center your application has been sent to, once you receive your receipts.
From what my attorney told me the applications first go to one single location and from there they are distributed randomly between NSC and TSC.

How do I know whether my app is being processed in NSC or TSC?
All I know is the Fedex package delivery location is Tempe Arizona?

[qesehmk]

good luck!

Thanks. This helps a lot.

[krishnav]

Hi needid,

I am also a Nov Filer (PD sep 2007) and my application went to TSC aswell. I received my EAD approval on 12/20/2011 and I think I have seen a couple of other Nov filers who got their EADs.

Received EAD approval mails for me and my wife on 1/12/2012. I am a Nov filer with PD Oct 2007.
This is from TSC ( am i the first from TSC?). No cards received yet.

About a week back my attorney mailed AP of my daughter which was approved on Dec 15th. Not sure if EADs goes directly to attorney. No approval emails for AP. If EAD/AP is on same card, why don't they get approved go together?

[needid]

TSC was good at FP notices , while NSC was at EADs, TSC catching up now.

Hi needid,

I am also a Nov Filer (PD sep 2007) and my application went to TSC aswell. I received my EAD approval on 12/20/2011 and I think I have seen a couple of other Nov filers who got their EADs.

[willywonka]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

How long does a 485 application normally take to get approved?
It is a known that applications take 4-6 months to get approved as long as the Priority Date (PD) for the Primary applicant is current. One exception to this is cases with an RFE (Request For Evidence), which take much longer.

Once you apply, does the PD matter?
USCIS processes the applications based on the Received Date (RD). However, once the application is documentarily qualified (DQ), the visa numbers are allotted by DOS based on PD. So, it is necessary that the PD remains current for you to receive the green card.

What is the best indicator to estimate how long your 485 application will take to be approved?
The #of applicants in front of you with in EB2I category is a great indicator. For all calculations, you can safely assume that everyone with a RD and PD earlier than yours will get their GC before you. There are some exceptions to the statement above which sometimes give an illusion of randomness to the order in which cases are approved. For example, the cases with an RFE take longer. Similarly, service center processing times vary and there could be a 1-2 month difference at times. The processing times are posted (ir)regularly, and you can check them out at the following link.
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
Other minor exceptions are rare cases that get approved right after the first stage of FBI check that happens within 1-3 days after finger printing rather than after the full review from FBI which takes 60-90 days; cases with high profile recommendations, the philosophy of the primary officer/adjudicator assigned to a case, etc.

Where can I find out how many applicants are in front of me within EB2I?
USCIS posts the 485 inventory data (#of pending 485 applications by PD) approximately 3 times a year. The last time this data was posted was in Oct 2011 and you can use the link below to access it. The counts on this report include both Primary and Dependent applications.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem...
The information in the Oct 2011 inventory report is outdated and it cannot now be used to calculate the currently pending applications that are in front of you. The next inventory report is anticipated to be posted sometime in Q2 of FY2012.

What does the 485 demand data indicate?
Demand data indicates the number of 485 applications that are DQ and are currently waiting to be assigned a visa number by the DOS. The DOS uses the demand data to decide the cutoff dates every month. For example, if you take spillover away from the picture, there cannot be more than 2803 EB2I approvals in a given year. If USCIS has 5000 EB2I cases that are DQ in a year, DOS orders these cases by PD in ascending order, assigns visa numbers to the first 2803 cases, and sets the cutoff date as the PD of the 2804th case.

What is spillover and how many additional visa numbers does EB2I get because of spillover?
Spillover is the number of unused visa numbers from EB1 and EB-ROW (ROW means Rest Of the World, i.e., countries other than India, China, and South Korea soon) that fall down to EB2I&C. USCIS has become more efficient at handling the spillover by allotting the spillover visa numbers quarterly rather than annually. So, you can expect EBI&C 485 approvals throughout FY2012 as opposed to seeing bulk approvals at the end of FY2012. Based on past approvals, EB2I got a spillover of ~19K in FY2010 and ~26K in FY2011. Based on TRACKITT data of the number of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications in the first quarter of FY 2012, the spillover to EB2I is expected to drop to around 20K for FY2012. Please note that this is purely an estimate because the actual EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for FY2012 is not known at this time.

How many EB3I applicants are porting to EB2I?
In FY2011, the number of applications that were ported to EB2I from EB3I successfully is widely believed to be around 4K. The number of such portings is expected to rise significantly in FY2012, with most such filings expected to occur in Q3 and Q4 of FY2012.

What is HR3012?
HR3012 is a bill introduced and cleared in the Congress in Nov 2011. This bill aims at removing the per-country quotas in the EB categories. If this bill becomes law, then the per-country quotas are removed and the EB 485 cases will be processed in a FIFO strategy within each sub-category. This means that each EB category, EB1, EB2, EB3, etc. will have one priority date each regardless of which country an applicant is from.

What is the current status of HR3012?
After it passed congress, this bill was sent to the Senate. It was blocked from going to a vote on the senate floor by Senator Chuck Grassley. Recently a sister bill was attached to HR3012 that deals with Irish immigration. These bills together have a support of 53 democratic senators and additional support from 7 republican senators is needed for a cloture if necessary to remove Gr"ass"ley's hold and a potential filibuster. The Democrats have put this bill on the senate calendar under rule XIV; meanwhile the Irish and Indian communities are lobbying hard to get the needed support. There will be more updates on this bill starting Jan 23rd 2012.

Are the cutoff dates going to go forward/Stall/retrogress?
Yes to all. Normally, it’s just the DQ demand that determines the cutoff dates. However at this point of time, the more relevant factor is the #of new EB2 I&C 485 filings. Please go through the following:
Safely assuming that the 2803 EB2I visas for FY2012 are already used in Q1 FY2012, the key for EB2I is quarterly spillover. Based on my estimated number of 20K spillover for FY2012, the quarterly allotment would be 5K. So, unless the DQ demand reaches 5K in Q2 of FY2012, the DQ demand data cannot be used to determine cutoff dates. According to the latest available DQ demand data as of Jan 5 2012, the DQ demand for EB2I is merely 95. It’s improbable that this would climb up to 5K by Feb 8 2012, the time the March bulletin will be released.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

So, what will be used for March bulletin is merely the number of new filings.
In FY2011, out of 140K EB visas, there were ~123K EB 485 approvals and 17K EB consular processing approvals. The number of new 485 applications in FY2011 was ~78K. This means that the USCIS had around 45K DQ EB2 cases who applied before FY2011 readily available in FY2011 to be allotted all the unused visa numbers. The USCIS Inventory as of Jan 2011 supports this.
For FY2012, if you assume the same number of new applications ~80K, that demand will not be sufficient to utilize the full 120K+ I485 visa numbers. Because, for FY2012 there aren't ~40K DQ EB2 cases readily available in queue like they were last year. To get a DQ EB2I&C demand of 40K by Sep 2012, USCIS needs at least 50K I485 applications for EB2I&C by end of March 2012. That is assuming a smooth approval rate of 90% and that it takes 6 months for an application to get DQ.
To generate 50K new EB2 application filings, USCIS has started a trial and error method - advance the cutoff dates, look at the #of new filings, if #of filings is high enough then stall the cutoff date and wait for DQ demand data to materialize slowly and at the point DQ demand crosses the quarterly spillover, cutoff dates can be retrogressed accordingly, but if the #of new filings is not high enough, then further forward the cutoff dates again. The final goal is to generate a DQ demand of nearly 40K for EB2I&C during or at least by the end of FY2012.

According to USCIS, as of Jan 05 2012, the #of new filings for EB2I&C has been extremely low, nowhere in the ball park of 50K (including Primary and Dependent applications). The following statements are just my opinion.
Q1 FY2012 plus January 2012 EB2 I&C applications alone won’t be enough to get close to the magic number of 50K. When all the Feb 2012 applications are in, then the number would definitely come close to 50K or even cross it. However, all Feb filings won’t show up in the radar by the time March bulletin is released. So, for March 2012 bulletin, I believe the cutoff dates are set to advance one last time in FY 2012. How much they advance is up to the discretion of the CO. My guess is it could be 3 months or at most 6 months. In April and May bulletins, the cutoff dates are going to stall. In June bulletin, the dates are going to retrogress by about 2 years.

Since the latest available inventory data is outdated, is there a way to calculate or predict what the current pending 485 inventory is?
It is possible to estimate the number of EB2I approvals between Oct 2011 and Current Date based on the EB2I DQ demand currently available, DQ demand at the beginning of Oct 2011, newly filed EB2I 485 approval trend on TRACKITT, etc. It is widely believed that around 8-9K EB2I 485 applications have been approved so far in FY2012 (starting Oct 2011).
There are several people who are estimating the potential number of new 485 EB2I filings beginning FY2012 based on factors such as how many PERM approvals were in the periods that are now newly current, I140 approval rate, number of dependents, demand destruction (i.e., PERM approvals that didn't lead to 485 filing because they lost jobs in 2008 or moved to a different employer, etc.), people who are eligible but not filing for 485 in anticipation of getting married first before filing, etc. etc. I am just going to be content with believing that the number of new filings so far for EB2I&C are significantly lower than 50K as of Jan 05 2012 and this number is not going to reach/cross 50K before the end of February 2012.

Good Luck to All!!!

[dexter2010]

Wow willywoka, nice summary, helped answer many of my questions.

[gkjppp]

willywonka,
Great analysis, Spillover to EB2 can be added from EB4 and EB5 as well<Guru's can confirm>. I like your guessing on March bulletin 3 to 6 months advance.

[Osaka001]

willywonka,
Great analysis, Spillover to EB2 can be added from EB4 and EB5 as well<Guru's can confirm>. I like your guessing on March bulletin 3 to 6 months advance.

Hi gk,
I may be too optimistic for FY'12 , the spill over for EB2 would be 8K from EB5/4 + 20K EB1 + 10K from EB2 RoW ~ 38K.

[mesan123]

willywonka,
nice summary....
what will be the wait time for people in end of 2010 (or) people in 2011. i mean the wait time after the march bulletion. as most of the gurus think this will be the last movement if it happens and then the date will stall/retrogress in future bulletion.

how long will the people have to wait ...will it be3-4 years or more....

will it repeat like 2007 fiasco where people had to wait for more than 4 years to become current(after dates became current once)

[gkjppp]

Hi gk,
I may be too optimistic for FY'12 , the spill over for EB2 would be 8K from EB5/4 + 20K EB1 + 10K from EB2 RoW ~ 38K.

if this becomes true,almost all 2008 folks will get their GC's before Oct 2012. 20K from EB1 might not be possible.

[gkjppp]

willywonka,
nice summary....
what will be the wait time for people in end of 2010 (or) people in 2011. i mean the wait time after the march bulletion. as most of the gurus think this will be the last movement if it happens and then the date will stall/retrogress in future bulletion.

how long will the people have to wait ...will it be3-4 years or more....

will it repeat like 2007 fiasco where people had to wait for more than 4 years to become current(after dates became current once)

mesan123, it will not take 4 years to move further, THE WORST case it moves again in Oct 2014< thats why my signature says now or in 2014>, ie 2 years 8 months, chances are high it will move again between Oct - Dec 2013.by Jan 1st 2010, we got around 57K pipeline which needs to be adjudicated,Spillover for 2012 and 2013 definetely crosses 40K,as of now CO is using Quarterly spillover, so he has to move dates sometime between Oct to Dec 2013.

[vgraj1]

Here is a summary new filers maybe interested in. I posted the same on trackitt too.

Good Luck to All!!!

Fabulous analysis willywonka, thanks! Regarding I-485 inventory data, there are total pending I-485 cases of about 26K at Oct. 2011 end with USCIS; this is far below the total quota of 140K minus 15% for NVC cases. Added to this, the extremely low number of 'documentarily qualified' cases for EB2 so far, and considering the recession in 2008 & 9 which caused a drop in EB2 cases, a huge retrogression in June 2012 is unlikely. And even if there is a significant retrogression in June 2012, the PD may again move rapidly in FY 2013. What are your thoughts?

[geterdone]

I have a question- say my PD is Dec 09 and I get my EAD in May of this year, i guess it will be valid for 1 yr. Then next year when I have to renew if my date is not current due to retrogression can i still renew my EAD?

[veni001]

I have a question- say my PD is Dec 09 and I get my EAD in May of this year, i guess it will be valid for 1 yr. Then next year when I have to renew if my date is not current due to retrogression can i still renew my EAD?

geterdone,

Yes, you can renew your EAD until you get "Decision" on your 485.

[letmesee]

I know a few of my colleagues (4 ppl) who became current in December and the lawyers haven't filed their 485 yet.. They are just too slow saying they hate this rapid movement since it's a flood of applications for them to file.
Also I know one more guy whose pd is current but hasn't filed since he moved to another company and needs to restart the process. Looks like there may be more cases like these which would help the date movement.

[Gclongwait]

I know a few of my colleagues (4 ppl) who became current in December and the lawyers haven't filed their 485 yet.. They are just too slow saying they hate this rapid movement since it's a flood of applications for them to file.
Also I know one more guy whose pd is current but hasn't filed since he moved to another company and needs to restart the process. Looks like there may be more cases like these which would help the date movement.

WHAT!!! that's crazy, I feel for them. I dont think there will be too many people like that. December wasn't even rapid movement. It was only 4.5 months.