EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

What Does the Demand Data represent?

I see lots of misconceptions about what the Demand Data shows.

There are many comments that say that looking at the Demand Data will give a guide to how much the Visa Bulletin will progress or whether retrogression is likely.

If you understand what the Demand Data is, you will see that neither is possible at the moment.

The figures in the Demand Data represent the number of documentarily qualified cases where a visa request has been made, but the visa has not yet been allocated. It is just a Pending file for cases where a visa request has not, or cannot, be actioned.

Let's understand when a case becomes documentarily qualified, when a visa is requested, and when it is allocated.

(a) For Consular Processed cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when NVC requests a visa after Packet 4 information has been received and the interview date is set.

Between that time and when, the interview actually takes place, the visa is pending and adds one to the Demand Data total.

If the interview is successful, then the visa is consumed. If the interview is not successful, it is returned to the pool. In both cases, the Demand Data total is reduced by one.

(b) For AOS cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when USCIS adjudicate and approve the I-485 case. At this point they request a visa from DOS.

Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated, because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data and the total rises by one.

If the PD is Current, which it is for all EB2-IC I-485 cases in the system at the moment, the visa is allocated and used immediately. The Demand Data total remains unchanged.

For all the new applications that USCIS have received since October 2011, with an average processing time of 4-6 months, virtually none will have reached the stage of being adjudicated. For those few that have (such as Veni's), the visa request was granted immediately because the PD was Current, leaving the Demand Data total unchanged.


Only when Cut Off Dates retrogress can the Demand Data figures for EB2-IC increase.

In this situation, if USCIS request a visa for a case with a PD that is no longer Current, then it will be added to the Demand Data total.

Possibly, the other way that the Demand Data might increase, is if DOS run out of visas for EB2-IC under Quarterly Spillover and stop allocating them.

The few cases shown in the Demand Data at present almost certainly represent Consular Processed cases, where the visa has been pre-allocated, but an interview has not yet taken place.

Look at EB2-ROW. It has always been Current. The maximum amount I have seen from a quick look at past Demand Data is the 130 in the latest version.

When the Demand Data for March 2012 is published, don't expect it to be much different from the February 2012 one. If the dates don't retrogress in the March VB, the April one won't be either.

[murakh]

I know this might not be the proper thread to post it but i need help...so may be some one of you might have answer for my problem
So back in 98 I was framed to be involved in college mob fight. I wasnt even present on sight. However charges were filed. NO arrest was made as antispatory bail was issued . Latter on it was proved in court that charged were framing and false so case was dismissed. Now when i tried to get police clearence from india it says FIR was made latter on case was dismissed
When I filled my ds-260 form i wasnt even aware of this situation. so clicked no . Now when I would present this police clearence with court order would it have any affect on my case
any help would be greatly appreciated ! May God bless you !

[qesehmk]

All those questions about felony etc .... to my understanding are as they relate to US jurisdiction. I am not sure if what you did or didn't do in India matters a whole lot.

That's my gut feel. I am not very confident on this one.

I know this might not be the proper thread to post it but i need help...so may be some one of you might have answer for my problem
So back in 98 I was framed to be involved in college mob fight. I wasnt even present on sight. However charges were filed. NO arrest was made as antispatory bail was issued . Latter on it was proved in court that charged were framing and false so case was dismissed. Now when i tried to get police clearence from india it says FIR was made latter on case was dismissed
When I filled my ds-260 form i wasnt even aware of this situation. so clicked no . Now when I would present this police clearence with court order would it have any affect on my case
any help would be greatly appreciated ! May God bless you !

[murakh]

thanks Q . I have applied throgh consular process and they ask for police clearence from india so I dont know. may be lawyer can answer my qs

[qesehmk]

Makes sense. I was only talking about 485.

thanks Q . I have applied throgh consular process and they ask for police clearence from india so I dont know. may be lawyer can answer my qs

[veni001]

Spec

This is a crystal clear explanation to what exactly is the term Demand Data. I request to please open a thread in Facts and Data Section and add this post .

Thank you

Spec,

Very good post, copied to Monthly Demand Data thread in Facts and Data Section.

[Spectator]

Spec

This is a crystal clear explanation to what exactly is the term Demand Data. I request to please open a thread in Facts and Data Section and add this post .

Thank you

Spec,

Very good post, copied to Monthly Demand Data thread in Facts and Data Section.

Kanmani, Veni,

Thanks for the kind comments.

Demand Data for EB2-IC has been very useful in the past, when a fairly static backlog was reducing, and it will be in the future when a new backlog starts to increase.

I still look forward to the DD to see what is happening in EB3, but it makes rather depressing reading.

Veni,

I think ultimately, where you have copied the post is the correct place, but it is slightly buried in the existing thread. To provide some temporary greater visibility, I will copy it to a new thread. When the figures start to increase, I will delete it and leave the only copy in your thread. I hope that makes sense.

[sudkal33]

I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?

[qesehmk]

I think it means NSC is processing cases with Oct 2007 PD in as little as 2 months.

The processing is more a function of your PD than when you filed.

Gurus, does this mean that NSC is processing Nov cases now ?

[natvyas]

Isnt the USCIS inventory report overdue ?

Cheers
Nat

[suninphx]

Can some one tell me that statement '8k-10k already consumed' - is based on calculations or actual data?

[nishant2200]

Can some one tell me that statement '8k-10k already consumed' - is based on calculations or actual data?

sun, the DD before Oct VB showed around 8.5k which got wiped out by Oct VB move to 15 July 2007. And pretty sure there were would be others before that date too, who were in pending inventory, not in DD. also people with dates current in Nov VB are starting to get approvals as well as PWMB of Oct VB. So I agree with the statement of 8-10k consumed.

[sandeep11]

This case also makes me believe that an approval can be made purely on the initial FBI clearance report (remember that this takes normally 24-48 hrs after the FP is done). With the initial FBI clearance maybe they consider the file pre-adjudicated assuming that all the supporting documents are in place and processed. May be rest of the checks would invlove only if there is something unusual (like some wierd combination of name that closely matches to ours pops up etc). In this case it was done on 1/9 and approved on 1/13. Wow.

Maybe Once FP is done there might be a trigger that 485 is ready for approval if the application is already processed and that there is a number available.

There is a glimmer of hope for the rest of Nov and Dec filers. I guess it is all matter of luck and the superfast IO that our file is assigned to.

Tick..Tick...Tick...Tick......

Wov! I am happy as well as jealous

Take a couple of sick days off n party. Oct PD got it, this is great. QSP rocks. God bless CO.

May I ask if did masters here, and if u hold a fulltime or consulting position.

[imdeng]

I had mentioned 8K-10K figure based on Teddy's estimate for visa numbers consumed so far in FY2012. I believe his rationale is same as Nishant's below.

sun, the DD before Oct VB showed around 8.5k which got wiped out by Oct VB move to 15 July 2007. And pretty sure there were would be others before that date too, who were in pending inventory, not in DD. also people with dates current in Nov VB are starting to get approvals as well as PWMB of Oct VB. So I agree with the statement of 8-10k consumed.

[vp5856]

Agreed with you sportsfan33 and Nishant. Makes sense. Nov and Dec filers(at least) , good news on the cards!

So if the levels of spillover remains the same, EB2-IC will end up consuming 32-40K visas in FY 2012? That's incredible. That has to be a record if it holds up.

[natvyas]

Pandits

With this, does the projection of having the gc in hand move to the right or does it still remain at Jan 08 time frame?

[imdeng]

No - the 8K-10K consumption till date is part of the overall figure available. So the reality is actually the opposite - if we have a total SOFAD of say 25K, then we have already consumed 10K and we only have 15K remaining for the rest of the year. Right now the consensus seems to be that we will get a TOTAL of 25K-30K visas for EB2I. This is mainly because EB1 has picked up but EB2ROW has slowed down in FY2012.

So if the levels of spillover remains the same, EB2-IC will end up consuming 32-40K visas in FY 2012? That's incredible. That has to be a record if it holds up.

[TeddyKoochu]

Firstly once again congratulations to whereismygclost its great news. The process of approvals once the date is current is essentially a multi thread human intensive process rather than a single thread ordered batch process with IO's doing each case individually. Finally the Nov filers account has been opened by a clean case. PD being current essentially makes the case eligible to be approved while an earlier RD and ND gives higher likelihood of the case being at a stage further assuming all officers / adjudicators are at the same pace and follow exactly the same process. Also the case being simpler or having exceptional qualifications also helps. Let us wait for more Nov EB2 I / C cases gain traction on approvals now. Finally what matters for a speedier approval is the officer / adjudicator's judgment in that sense whereismygclost's case is outstanding so it definitely helped the officer decide that this case warrants an approval right away no need to look into any further.
The process will have randomness now with all factors playing in. I very sincerely thank all of you for your kind words and keeping me in your minds. I wish everyone a speedier approval. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

[vp5856]

Well said Teddy. I heard stories, being in a multinational helps (no disrespect to whereismygclost) - lobbying and all. Hope this is not the case...

Firstly once again congratulations to whereismygclost its great news. The process of approvals once the date is current is essentially a multi thread human intensive process rather than a single thread ordered batch process with IO's doing each case individually. Finally the Nov filers account has been opened by a clean case. PD being current essentially makes the case eligible to be approved while an earlier RD and ND gives higher likelihood of the case being at a stage further assuming all officers / adjudicators are at the same pace and follow exactly the same process. Also the case being simpler or having exceptional qualifications also helps. Let us wait for more Nov EB2 I / C cases gain traction on approvals now. Finally what matters for a speedier approval is the officer / adjudicator's judgment in that sense whereismygclost's case is outstanding so it definitely helped the officer decide that this case warrants an approval right away no need to look into any further.
The process will have randomness now with all factors playing in. I very sincerely thank all of you for your kind words and keeping me in your minds. I wish everyone a speedier approval. Some of the real old-timers like imechanix, leo07, 03may2007 are waiting from the Oct batch. Looks like for our good friend Sogaddu will see his 485 approval before EAD / AP. Good luck to all.

[suninphx]

Nishant, imdeng

I don't necessarily disagree with 8k -10k number. By reading some posts today I got impression that it's a verified through some report which I missed. So was just making sure. Thanks guys.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant /Imdeng / SuninPhx -

Consider the following facts. Oct Demand data showed 8.5K and Oct Inventory shows 14K. The Oct inventory may have had some PWMB cases who filed in Jul & Aug, almost all these cases are approved. The inventory may contain some older problematic cases and some cases adjusted for porting. Overall here itself 11K is the average of the inventory and demand data. Maybe let’s settle for 10K here.

Oct filers Apr 15 to Jul 15th PWMB cases have been calculated to be 2K, of that probably 50% are already approved refer to Trackitt and the posts from our friend QBF.

Porting we had assumed is 3K a year, trackitt shows a fairly high number of porting cases. If we consider that a third of the year is gone then it’s another 1K.
This would put the consumption at ~ 12K. It is definitely a minimum of 10K if you consider the demand data and not the mean of the inventory and demand data at the 01-Oct-2011 point that is now approved. Throughout Oct – Dec 2011, 2007 preadjudicated cases have been approved.

[imdeng]

10K+ is a reasonable estimate for EB2I visas issued in Q1FY2012. Considering that the approvals are continuing in Q2FY2012 following QSP, the important question is - where is CO getting these visa numbers from??

Assuming a linear allocation, Q1 had 140/4 = 35K visas to give. 10K to EB2I would mean 30% of total EB visas to EB2I. This mark has never been reached before - its unprecedented and frankly unsustainable considering that EB1 has picked up pace recently. CO has discretion in setting up PD; however, actually issuing visas is a much serious deal and there is very little discretion involved. Perhaps a combination of EB2ROW demand decline and EB2IC demand destruction is the story here.

Nishant /Imdeng / SuninPhx -

Consider the following facts. Oct Demand data showed 8.5K and Oct Inventory shows 14K. The Oct inventory may have had some PWMB cases who filed in Jul & Aug, almost all these cases are approved. The inventory may contain some older problematic cases and some cases adjusted for porting. Overall here itself 11K is the average of the inventory and demand data. Maybe let’s settle for 10K here.

Oct filers Apr 15 to Jul 15th PWMB cases have been calculated to be 2K, of that probably 50% are already approved refer to Trackitt and the posts from our friend QBF.

Porting we had assumed is 3K a year, trackitt shows a fairly high number of porting cases. If we consider that a third of the year is gone then it’s another 1K.
This would put the consumption at ~ 12K. It is definitely a minimum of 10K if you consider the demand data and not the mean of the inventory and demand data at the 01-Oct-2011 point that is now approved. Throughout Oct – Dec 2011, 2007 preadjudicated cases have been approved.

[sudkal33]

Sorry ro ask this question again....
I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?

[mechanical13]

Are there any macro-economic reasons why EB2ROW demand would be low?

For all practical reasons, the economy seems to be improving. Also, the economy in Europe seems to be getting worse, which would suggest that people there are probably looking for safe havens (want to come to the US).

The 10k EB2I allocation suggests that there are other factors at play. I don't what they are (perhaps anticipation that HR3012 will pass), but USCIS can't use VISA numbers in anticipation...can they?

The only other explanation is that demand destruction for EB2 and EB1 is staggering and beyond anything anyone had ever anticipated. (This ofcourse still does not explain the 10k allocation because one would think this demand destruction applies to EB2I as well).

Just my thoughts. I am really a novice at these calculations.

[imdeng]

Although the absence of fee notices does not completely preclude the possibility of forward movement, it surely reduces the probability. Coupled with the fact that the Feb VB did not have as encouraging a language as the Jan VB does indicate that the movement might stall. There shouldn't be any retrogression as yet since visa numbers continue to be available but given the massive inventory that DoS already have, my personal opinion is that the chances of forward movement are low.

Sorry ro ask this question again....
I have a quick question to the experienced members, about the predicted movement in Mar VB.
So far, we havent seen any NVC fee notices for PDs with 2010.
Does that mean, that CO has decided to stall the PD movement for Mar VB?