EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[gkjppp]

For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

That's bad, but expected. Hope they push atleast 3 months into 2010, will wait and see.This may take almost 1.5 to 2 years to move forward.

[Mavrick]

I think lot will also depend on what happens to H.r.3012 in congress this month.

For those interested. This is what the lawyer told me was likely to happen in the coming months.

In the earlier meeting, he seemed positive about a March movement, but today, he said the chances of movement were less (< 50%). He also said if "nothing else changes", retrogression is a certainty and most likely the dates were set to go back into 2007s. The company is advising all employees to file while the window remains open until April.

To summarize:

- March: stall/forward movement.
- April: Stall
- May onwards: retrogression.

Good luck to all. I hope things turn out better for 2010 filers. 2009 has turned out to be the luckiest EB2-I year in recent memory, and should be framed on the wall in fond remembrance.

[sugada]

What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

[zenmaster]

What news could the next bulletin bring us?
A) Movement by another year
B) Gets Current
C) No movement
D) Retrograde

I tend to agree with sportsfan33 in post #4205

[asankaran]

Update from Ron's site about EB2's movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...-advances.html

[gkjppp]

Update from Ron's site about EB2's movement
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...-advances.html

looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.

[TorreyPines]

Guys,

Long time follower, first-time poster. As other poster said, this site undoubtedly has the best Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR). Kudos to all.

I am trying to understand what is the parameter being used by CO to move dates forward (long/short movements). If demand is gauged by:

A. Visa numbers requested by USCIS: These numbers increase big enough only when Dec-Feb filers are documentarily qualified. Not going to happen for 2-3 of months from now. So can expect 3-6 month/VB movement for 2-3 months OR 1 year movement in March VB and stall for next two. After that comes 2012 spillover season.

B. Number of I-485 receipts with some multiplication factor: Will CO be interested in these numbers since # of receipts means nothing to him when it comes to today's visa numbers' consumption? If interested, forward movement might stop starting April VB. March VB is 50-50 for at max ~6-month movement and is subject to how many file I-485 for PD 2009 (assuming good percentage of PD 2008 guys will file by end of Feb).

C. He does a inky-pinky-ponky on different PD cutoffs, which I hope not.

Can experts agree/disagree which one of the above is most-likely?

PS: Apologize if this is an already discussed and blessed discussion.

[bieber]

looks like Ron is only one, who is aggressive and positive on EB2 movement.if it is true, it really helps lot of 2010/2011 folks.

Ron's post doens't make much sense, he seems late to the party. The chances of dates moving to C are very slim. There was no demand because the processing takes few months and the demand will show up very soon

[gkjppp]

Ron's post doens't make much sense, he seems late to the party. The chances of dates moving to C are very slim. There was no demand because the processing takes few months and the demand will show up very soon

You are right, EB2 will not become current in near future. chances are high in next bulletin EB2 moves atleast 3 to 6 months.

[vishnu]

Bieber - agree that chances of C is very slim / impossible. but Ron I don't think is late to the party. Around summer of last year, he wrote an article how EB2 India would move very fast after it cleared summer 07 dates. Perhaps he was just as exuberant then as he is now? Or perhaps there is some widsom to his words... Bulletins realeased in Feb and Mar will sure tell us.

[randomax]

No where close to being an expert here, but I would imagine the CO knows that it takes 3-6 months to process the incoming applications. The fact that the bulletin still mentions that demand has been surprisingly low makes me somewhat optimistic...

[gkjppp]

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[mygctracker]

I really hope VB moves further, but My prediction for Mar'12 VB is that the dates will STALL.

Reasons:

Trackitt indicates OCT filers getting AOS approved. So next DD won't show less numbers. DOS has taken full advantage of the DD and moved the dates so far. Next month he will start seeing the Demand.
CO indicated In Nov meeting with AILA, that dates will progress in Dec, Jan & Feb. I don't think he mentioned Mar? [Correct me if wrong]

My take may be completely wrong, but just wanted to post.

Thanks!

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[vishnu]

Given CO uses the phrase, "Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly it will be necessary to slowdown or halt, I think good chance we will see some movement. I am not counting on 12 months (although that would be most welcome with a PD of Sep 2010!), but perhaps 6 months?

[TorreyPines]

For 2008-2009 PD there are lot of uncertainties (DD being the key), and calculations can't hold strength until there is meaningful demand data. I am guessing for next 2-3 months, it would be prediction only.

My gut feeling for March VB is:

70% - 6 month movement
20 % - >6 month - 1 Year movement
10% - Stall/Retro (since demand is still low as per previous VB).

If above really happens, my gut feeling for April VB is:
90% - Stall/retro.
10% - High DD- Low I-485 receipts for PD 2008/2009 - move another 6-12 months.

Assumptions: Demand gauged by 485 receipts.

I will jump into calculations once demand data is meaningful.

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

[bieber]

Bieber - agree that chances of C is very slim / impossible. but Ron I don't think is late to the party. Around summer of last year, he wrote an article how EB2 India would move very fast after it cleared summer 07 dates. Perhaps he was just as exuberant then as he is now? Or perhaps there is some widsom to his words... Bulletins realeased in Feb and Mar will sure tell us.

Vishnu,
I don't intend to comment on his credibility, but I usually never learn anything new from him

The NVC notices with July 2008 dates was perhaps the most significant information he posted, which was useful to keep hopes on Jan bulletin

[vishnu]

Got it Bieber... and you are right about the fee notices. Also, since no one has posted information of 2010 fee notices, obviously not a good sign!

[gkjppp]

Guru's

if there is any forward movement for EB2 in 2012, that would be Mar bulletin further movement chances are bleak .That's being said, as forum name is EB2 predictions rather calculations. please predict what would be next months movement. Lets see who's prediction will be close match to Mar'12 bulletin.

No predictions from qesehmk/Veni/Spec/Teddy/Nishant ???

[Gclongwait]

I think we have seen the dates as much as they will. They probably wont retrogess for another month or so but in April there is a high chance of retrogession.

The reasoning is that the bulletin is moving not just based on DD but also on USCIS telling DoS how many I485 applications are being filed. My understanding earlier was that Mar 08 would be covered this year that was based on about 2200 I-485/month.

Nov bulletin - Nov 1, this is obviously not enough to cover FY2012
Dec bulletin - Mar 15 08 -- this should have been enough but maybe due to demand destruction it still wasnt enough to cover FY2012

So DoS says "fudge it" and moves to Jan 1 09. Even if destruction is 20-25% we still have 1800 apps/month. so from July 15 - mar 15 = 14000 + another 14000 till Jan 1 09 = 28000 apps filed from Nov 11 - jan 12
I think we can agree that this movement will be enough to cover FY2012 + DoS has another years worth of I485 coming in next month but once USCIS gives the report of Jan filings DoS is going to realize they have more then enough Apps. Also they dont want to overload USCIS with more than they can handle.

I hope I am wrong but this is predictions right???

[Prabhas]

There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?

I any event I guess there are fair chances for the dates to move in March bulletin at-least by few months. After all, I believe CO waited too long do this movement which should have started in early 2011 itself instead of waiting for the eb2 inventory to hit the bottom pit.Because if USCIS doesn't process I-485 before May bulletin, then there is a potential good news for EB3 with a spill over. Now, the million dollar question is will CO be happy with 50k in pipeline for EB2 or does he want to build more.

[bieber]

** says they are pushing for further movement .

LOL, i hope next bulletin will have further movement, didn't they already do us all big favor [pun intended]

[mesan123]

i dont know about the calculations part...guru's can update on that..

but i dont think it will benfit EB3 I/c. as incase the spill over is there also. it will be applied to the EB3 ROW first. not trying to be harsh, ....but the way the spill over is used is...if all EB2 people are current( or if there no preadjucated people waiting for visas in EB2) , then the spill over goes to the EB3 ROW, once that is Current then only it is distributed to the indivijaul countries.

There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?

I any event I guess there are fair chances for the dates to move in March bulletin at-least by few months. After all, I believe CO waited too long do this movement which should have started in early 2011 itself instead of waiting for the eb2 inventory to hit the bottom pit.Because if USCIS doesn't process I-485 before May bulletin, then there is a potential good news for EB3 with a spill over. Now, the million dollar question is will CO be happy with 50k in pipeline for EB2 or does he want to build more.

[gkjppp]

i dont know about the calculations part...guru's can update on that..

but i dont think it will benfit EB3 I/c. as incase the spill over is there also. it will be applied to the EB3 ROW first. not trying to be harsh, ....but the way the spill over is used is...if all EB2 people are current( or if there no preadjucated people waiting for visas in EB2) , then the spill over goes to the EB3 ROW, once that is Current then only it is distributed to the indivijaul countries.

You are right,right now if EB2 is current spillover goes to EB3 ROW first.

[mesan123]

i dont know how long the moment will be in next 2 bulletions...i m little scared at this point incase the dtaes move to jan 2011 and stall there and retrogress ...because then people from jan 2011 will be waiting for next 3 years or so for the dates to move.....i dont want that to repeat like jul 2007 scenario....where people from aug 2007 had to wait for 4 years to apply for 485....

what ever CO is thinking...this next 2 visa bulletions are going to affect many of us largely....

** says they are pushing for further movement .

[Spectator]

There was a post on immi***-law some weeks ago and the from the table it is apparent that for the FY2011 I-485s had 123K approvals, and 78K new applications, means the queue is shortened by 45K per year…So, doesn't it mean that they need more I-485s this year? Gurus, Am I missing something here?

Also there were only 123K approvals for FY2011, does that mean 17k Visas were lost?

The 123k figure came from this USCIS document.

USCIS only deal with AOS cases for which an I485 is required. The balance to the 140k would be Consular Processed cases handled by DOS, for which no I-485 is required.

17k is slightly higher than recent years (13-14k), but I can think of some reasons why that might be the case.

The new applications is not quite so simple. Here are my thoughts.

Only people whose PD is Current can file an I-485.

That means people from EB1, EB2-ROW-M-P, EB4 & EB5 plus the movement in Cut Off Dates throughout the year for EB2-IC and all of EB3.

New I-485 filing from EB2-IC and EB3 would be comparatively low, since the COD in FY2011 were all pre the end of the backlog and most people have already filed an I-485 who could. That means they were mainly PWMB and adding dependents. That wouldn't be huge numbers IMO.

The bulk of new applications just replace those earlier ones from Current groups that were approved in FY2011.

Looking at the total numbers of I-485 Receipts at NSC & TSC, FY2011 had higher numbers than FY2010 (17% increase). NSC/TSC handle I-485 for EB / Refugee / Asylee - it isn't possible to split out the EB cases for previous years.

My (rather quick) thoughts anyway.