EB3 Predictions & Calculations

[veni001]

It was the AC21 law (passed by Pres: Bill Clinton) that caused a change in spillover rules. This legislation was passed in 2000.
However visa office still continued to follow the spillover rules set before AC21 law. This interpretation was incorrect as AC21 had already changed the spillover rules.
Some EB2 folks sensed this, they formed a group under IV's umbrella, approached visa office with backing from lawyers and forced visa office to interpret the spillover rules correctly as per AC21 law.

On a side note, EB3-I doesn't lose much with this change as the spillover would have come to them only once EB2 and EB3 ROW are current. With the spillover rule change, EB3-I guys can port to EB2 and take advantage of the spillover change.

gcq,
I agree.

[smooth]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?

[veni001]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?

smooth,
We have seen about 8 month movement for EB3 ROW in the first 7 months of FY 2011, since all spillover numbers with in EB3 ROW will be applied in the last quarter, can expect significant movement.

[gcseek]

How much spill over within EB3 ROW expected?
How are they applied (equally to all countries within ROW?, equally to all countries including Ind, Chn, Mex, Phi? or to most retrogressed countries?) thanks for your reply.

[smooth]

I am EB3 Row PD Feb 15, 2006, when can I expect to be current? Thanks in advance

[Spectator]

Hello Q,

October 2010 you said EB3 Row should see movements through June 2006 by Sept 2011, are you saying as of now May 2011 with June VB to be released, we are expecting approx 10 month jump by Sept 2011?

Movement to date in EB3-ROW seems to have implied quite a large amount of hidden demand. Without that, I agree it could have moved to May 2006.

Per the last VB, movement of 3-6 weeks per month can be expected for the rest of the year.

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.

Spillover is not applicable to EB3-ROW, unless spare visas are available from EB2. That is extremely unlikely, unless DOS get their EB2 calculation very, very wrong.

[Spectator]

How much spill over within EB3 ROW expected?
How are they applied (equally to all countries within ROW?, equally to all countries including Ind, Chn, Mex, Phi? or to most retrogressed countries?) thanks for your reply.

No spillover to EB3 is expected this year, or for many to come.

If spillover were to be received, it would be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis within those Countries eligible to receive it.

By law, spillover from EB2 first goes to EB3-ROW, since Countries within it have not reached the 7% limit.

Only when that demand is satisfied, can the spillover be made available to Countries who have reached the 7% limit. Generally, in EB3 this means China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Because of the overall 7% concept, it is possible that Mexico and Philippines could receive some spillover visas initially with ROW, but only until they themselves reach the 9,800 7% limit within all EB preference categories. Normally, Mexico and Philippines reach this by "stealing" visas from ROW within EB3. That is why ROW only received 24k visas last year, when the initial allocation was 31k.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I am not sure what you mean by spillover. Technically USCIS uses that term for FB to EB and vice versa. We here use it for any excess visas coming from outside the category.

My understanding is that theoretically if EB2 were to give any visas to EB3 (which aint going to happen) they would be distributed strictly in PD order regardless whether individual ROW coutnries have or haven't reached their 7% limit.

No spillover to EB3 is expected this year, or for many to come.

If spillover were to be received, it would be allocated on a strictly earliest PD basis within those Countries eligible to receive it.

By law, spillover from EB2 first goes to EB3-ROW, since Countries within it have not reached the 7% limit.

Only when that demand is satisfied, can the spillover be made available to Countries who have reached the 7% limit. Generally, in EB3 this means China, India, Mexico and Philippines.

Because of the overall 7% concept, it is possible that Mexico and Philippines could receive some spillover visas initially with ROW, but only until they themselves reach the 9,800 7% limit within all EB preference categories. Normally, Mexico and Philippines reach this by "stealing" visas from ROW within EB3. That is why ROW only received 24k visas last year, when the initial allocation was 31k.

[Spectator]

Spec

I am not sure what you mean by spillover. Technically USCIS uses that term for FB to EB and vice versa. We here use it for any excess visas coming from outside the category.

My understanding is that theoretically if EB2 were to give any visas to EB3 (which aint going to happen) they would be distributed strictly in PD order regardless whether individual ROW coutnries have or haven't reached their 7% limit.

Q,

I am not sure DOS use the term spillover to mean anything, even if they use it at all!

The spillover rules are controlled by the interpretation of INA 202 (a)(5)(A):

(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PERCOUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE-

If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

When the spare visas fall to EB3, they must still follow this law.

Unlike EB2, all of EB3, including ROW, is retrogressed.

EB3-ROW represent qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, since they have demand and have not reached the 7% limitation.

Visas cannot be issued without regard to the numerical limitation until there are no other qualified immigrants to whom the visas can be issued.

EB3-India may not receive spare visas until all demand from otherwise qualified immigrants has been satisfied.

Thus, EB3-I requires both EB2 and EB3-ROW to have no satisfiable demand before they can receive spare visas.

Often, people describe this as both EB2 and EB3-ROW being Current, but nowhere in the law is the word "Current" used, so it is not an absolute condition.

Similarly, if EB2-ROW were ever to become retrogressed, then any EB1 FD would first be used by EB2-ROW until that demand was satisfied. Only then would it be made available to EB2-C and EB2-I.

[isantem]

Movement to date in EB3-ROW seems to have implied quite a large amount of hidden demand. Without that, I agree it could have moved to May 2006.

Per the last VB, movement of 3-6 weeks per month can be expected for the rest of the year.

If 6 weeks per month were seen, that would move the Cut Off Date to the end of January 2006.

However, last year, the dates moved very quickly at the end of the year. It is not impossible that the dates might move a little further if the hidden demand either reduces or has been miscalculated.

I think that is more a hope than the probable reality - I expect EB3-ROW to finish the year with Cut Off Dates of late 2005.

Per the USCIS I-485 inventory data and based on visa bulletin movement they used half of 25,000 visas for this year. I know that is lot of hidden demand, but I think is a good chance to get us to at least January-March 2006.

I am EB3 Row PD Feb 15, 2006, when can I expect to be current? Thanks in advance

You will get your greencard this year but I am not 100% sure if you get it before or after September. Good Luck!

[qesehmk]

Spec

The following applies to the category from where teh visas come from. Not where the visas go.

So if within ROW there are excess visas overall then they will go to a particular ROW country as long as 7% for that country is not reached.

However if its an FD then IMHO they are available for everybody to use strictly in PD order.

Q,
Visas cannot be issued without regard to the numerical limitation until there are no other qualified immigrants to whom the visas can be issued.

[isantem]

Friends.... I am looking on the charts that you guys put togheter......great work. THANK YOU.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ------------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ------------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 ------------ 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 --------- 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 ----------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 --------- 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 -------- 12,643 --- 122,183

I am trying to estimate how many applicants are in front of me (PD Jan 2009 - EB-3)

I know this numbers are for EB 2 and EB 3, can you please direct me where can I find how many EB-2 ROW was approved in this year's so I can deduct and find out an approximate EB-3 count?

You know what is a bulk percent number for 140 denials that is safe to take in my calculations?

This are the primary applicants correct? If yes, is 2.5 multiplier a good number?

Thank You

P.S. I am on the right track with my calculations or not?

[veni001]

Friends.... I am looking on the charts that you guys put togheter......great work. THANK YOU.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

ROW ------- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 ------- 1,723 ----- 145 ------ 17 ------- 6 ------------- 1 ----- 1,892
2006 ------ 19,807 ----- 548 ----- 196 ------ 39 ------------- 2 ---- 20,592
2007 ------ 20,900 -- 11,545 --- 1,421 --- 1,313 ------------ 35 ---- 35,214
2008 ----------- 0 -- 10,631 -- 11,958 --- 5,213 --------- 1,769 ---- 29,571
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 5 -- 17,426 ----------- 616 ---- 18,047
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 6,647 --------- 7,815 ---- 14,462
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 2,405 ----- 2,405
Total ----- 42,430 -- 22,869-- 13,597 --- 30,644 -------- 12,643 --- 122,183

I am trying to estimate how many applicants are in front of me (PD Jan 2009 - EB-3)

I know this numbers are for EB 2 and EB 3, can you please direct me where can I find how many EB-2 ROW was approved in this year's so I can deduct and find out an approximate EB-3 count?

You know what is a bulk percent number for 140 denials that is safe to take in my calculations?

This are the primary applicants correct? If yes, is 2.5 multiplier a good number?

Thank You

P.S. I am on the right track with my calculations or not?

isantem,
I believe until 2008 the breakdown between EB2&EB3 for ROW PERM is 50%-50%. Look at the PERM data posted at the following link http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations

Assuming above split + hidden demand( I think this is high for EB3 ROW), it will take good few years to move dates into 2009!

[gcseek]

Hiya,

My number is current now after 13 years into the country, 10 years of applying by me and 9 years of applying by the company. One more year, I would have asked my wife to do 'Agnipravesh' just to keep pace with Ram and Sita. Haha!

Thanks, guys, for help me keep up the spirit. Now, I have to plan for my career at age 51.

I would like to know, what happens next. I think that I am pre-adjudicated, not sure. Since it is for June Bulletin, I think that it will start only on June 1st. June 1st is the last date for my kid's college scholarship. What should I do? How long should it take to receive GC? What are all involved? Can anybody enlighten me?

Siva

[qesehmk]

gcseek,

I think you should have it in your hand within a month max since preadjed.

So why don't you talk to the concerned authorities and file for a scholarship now and then ask them a grace period for providing proof of GC.

Hiya,

My number is current now after 13 years into the country, 10 years of applying by me and 9 years of applying by the company. One more year, I would have asked my wife to do 'Agnipravesh' just to keep pace with Ram and Sita. Haha!

Thanks, guys, for help me keep up the spirit. Now, I have to plan for my career at age 51.

I would like to know, what happens next. I think that I am pre-adjudicated, not sure. Since it is for June Bulletin, I think that it will start only on June 1st. June 1st is the last date for my kid's college scholarship. What should I do? How long should it take to receive GC? What are all involved? Can anybody enlighten me?

Siva

[isantem]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You

[veni001]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You

isantem,
I can think of two reasons for last year EB3ROW movement in the final quarter
1. DOS applying all unused VISAs from the consular posts abroad in Q4
2. The number of pending cases together from 2001 to 2004 are less than the total for FY 2005.

[Spectator]

Friends,

Eb-3 ROW has an approximately 25,000 greencard/year. In this case they should get around 2,100 each month, based on this they should have a "constant" movement thru the year, in this case why in the last quarter have big movement compared to rest of the year. They don't get any spillover at this point......this way I can't explain myself this.

Thank You

isantem,

DOS seem to use different approval profiles (how many visas are allocated in each quarter) in different years (especially for EB3) and there is evidence to back that up.

I have charted both last year and this year to date against Trackitt approvals.

Last year, 61% of all EB3-ROW approvals were made in Q4, so it is not surprising that there was a large movement.

Also, because EB3-ROW had previously reached these Cut Off Dates, there were less remaining applicant left to approve.

The trend in FY2011 is much more linear and even, so we should not expect the same, unless EB3-ROW is going to get considerably more visas than last year.

I will try to add the figures for EB3 to the post in the FACTS & Data section http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections by the end of the day, so that you can judge for yourself.

EDIT: The tables can now be found at the above link.

[isantem]

isantem,
I can think of two reasons for last year EB3ROW movement in the final quarter
1. DOS applying all unused VISAs from the consular posts abroad in Q4
2. The number of pending cases together from 2001 to 2004 are less than the total for FY 2005.

Thank You!

The trend in FY2011 is much more linear and even, so we should not expect the same, unless EB3-ROW is going to get considerably more visas than last year.

I will try to add the figures for EB3 to the post in the FACTS & Data section http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections by the end of the day, so that you can judge for yourself.

Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

[Spectator]

Thank You!



Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

Isantem,

You can find them here http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tics_1476.html (Table V, Part 2).

I happen to have them to hand anyway.

EB2-ROW
2006 14,420
2007 28,892
2008 44,934

EB3-ROW
2006 44,985
2007 37,117
2008 29,884

There are also some figures in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...CREDIT-to-VENI

[veni001]

Thank You!



Spectator, thank you very much for your time, that helps a lot!

It's looks like EB3 ROW had more appications approved until this date compared to last year, so probably we will not see any big move in the next 3 months.

Looking at the PERM data:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...TATOR-amp-VENI

Do you know where can I find exact EB2ROW approvals for 2006/7/8 so I can divide them by 2.2 and find out the number of PERM for EB2 and after that take that numbers out fom total PERM to find out EB3 PERM application.?

Thank You

isantem,
See the table below for EB3 approvals 2005 to 2010

-FY- --EB3ROW -----EB3M -------EB3P ------EB3I -----EB3C ----- Total
2005 --69,972 ----12,632 ----11,129 ----23,399 ----4,998 ----122,130
2006 --44,985 ----7,735 ------4,709 -----3,177 ----2,739 -----63,345
2007 --37,115 ----10,174 -----8,710 -----17,985 ---3,681 -----77,665
2008 --29,884 ---- 5,325 -----6,154 ------3,745 ---2,057 -----47,165
2009 --26,309 -----4,566 -----5,540 ------2,306 ---1,077 -----39,798
2010 --24,328 -----7,740 -----3,651 ------3,036 ---3,676 -----42,431
Total-232,593 ----48,172 ----39,893 -----53,648 --18,228 ----392,534

[isantem]

Spectator, veni001

Thank you!

[srinu_chirala]

isantem,
See the table below for EB3 approvals 2005 to 2010

-FY- --EB3ROW -----EB3M -------EB3P ------EB3I -----EB3C ----- Total
2005 --69,972 ----12,632 ----11,129 ----23,399 ----4,998 ----122,130
2006 --44,985 ----7,735 ------4,709 -----3,177 ----2,739 -----63,345
2007 --37,115 ----10,174 -----8,710 -----17,985 ---3,681 -----77,665
2008 --29,884 ---- 5,325 -----6,154 ------3,745 ---2,057 -----47,165
2009 --26,309 -----4,566 -----5,540 ------2,306 ---1,077 -----39,798
2010 --24,328 -----7,740 -----3,651 ------3,036 ---3,676 -----42,431
Total-232,593 ----48,172 ----39,893 -----53,648 --18,228 ----392,534

Do you think this table is accurate?

[srinu_chirala]

Employment-Based I-485 Inventory for Individuals Born in India as of January 05, 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistic...05,%202011.pdf

Previous Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD


EB3rd Preference
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
January 7 194 872 1,000 815 713 693 4,294
February 8 317 826 928 813 725 650 4,267
March 18 495 951 1,301 3,424 931 651 7,771
April 229 704 1,068 1,282 31 754 590 4,658
May 4 658 1,023 1,212 77 867 567 4,408
June 5 5 588 982 1,211 147 834 486 4,258
July 1 1 3 675 940 1,164 249 911 811 4,755
August 1 2 8 743 934 1,155 456 875 158 4,332
September 1 3 4 750 958 1,060 505 847 4,128
October 1 1 14 808 1,210 1,246 553 1,043 4,876
November 1 11 836 1,161 1,303 667 1,181 5,160
December 14 933 1,185 1,564 792 1,045 5,533
Total 3 1 1 12 325 7,701 12,110 14,426 8,529 10,726 4,606 0 0 0 58,440

[Spectator]

Do you think this table is accurate?

srinu_chirala,

Yes, it agrees to my figures + or - a very few.

They are DOS figures for Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations

You can check the numbers yourself here http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_1476.html (use Table V)