EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Demand data is out

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html



http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Demand is still very low in DD.

I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this.

It has no row for demand prior to January 1, 2007, so 2006 is pretty much clear.

[Stemcell]

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

[devi_pd]

You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

[nishant2200]

One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.

You guys are lightning fast wow..

We still don't have enough pre-adjucated applications for EB2IC which was expected. Next month's DD should give us a better picture.

[geevikram]

I still think that the numbers are ridiculous.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

My money is on today, around 12 to 1 afternoon PST.

[Stemcell]

The low demand means that USCIS has not Pre-adjucated applications from August 2007 and beyond right ? If not the low numbers are not justified to me unless somebody clarifies.

[nishant2200]

But still it's a shocker!!

sure man, I mean, its good thing that DD keeps low, it means we are keeping on getting satisfied by QSP and/or they don't have enough ripe intake.

[gcq]

numbers are too good to be true. EB2 total demand 258, EB3 Total demand upto 2003 15,685.
Time to make EB2 current. right ? Maybe CO is trying to save EB3 ROW from the after effects of HR 3012.

[kd2008]

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

[nishant2200]

Could someone please explain what this dancing is all about? Demand data released in Nov 2011 for Dec. 2011 bulletin also had low demand and back then the dates moved 4.5 months. So why is everybody excited now?

The current demand data is a snapshot as of Jan 5, 2012. So essentially, there is a chance that they are approving 100 cases a day for EB2-I. So if CO extrapolates this with the expected pipeline then there is little chance of a large movement.

kd, as I said:

"I feel big movement's chances are not at all harmed by this."

[TeddyKoochu]

The demand data shows very low EB2 I/C documentarily qualified cases and it has been created yesterday which is just the third working day of the month. This increases positive sentiment & the likelihood of further movement in the bulletin. Good luck to everyone. On another note some cases will never figure in either the inventory or demand data as they are getting approved.

[TheTexan]

ThatIsAll,

No problem if it is in Marathi. You need to get an exact translation done and then get this translation certified.


Thanks,

[imdeng]

Chances of VB being released today did increase significantly with DD release.

Guys, I think chances of VB getting released today are pretty high and almost 100% on Monday.

[GhostWriter]

One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday

One point, if the 485s which get adjudicated for EB2IC, keep getting satisfied by QSP, they will never appear in DD.

[codesmith]

What's happening....?
Can some-one press the RED button
It's mind boggling!!
Gali gali mein shore hai CO hamara neta hai )

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec/Teddy,

Thanks for detailed replies to Kanmani's original post..
For argument sake even if we think that there another 50% increase in trackitt % and overall filings the number Nov VB hovers around 7K. (much less than 10K we discussed here)?

Sun the overall consensus is that Oct filers will be 2K.
Nov filing represents movement from 15th Jul to 01 Nov which is 3.5 months.
I would assume most people post 15th Jul have a very high likelihood of being PWMB.
Let’s stick to our perm approximation of 2200 PM.
With OR of 1 it means 2200 * 3.5 * 1 = 7700
With OR of 0.8 it means 2200 * 3.5 * .8 = 6160.
With a OR of 1 Oct + Nov will get closer to 10K while with OR of 0.8 it will get closer to only 8K.

[kd2008]

Where is the demand from the November filers? None of them have received GCs yet, and it is just surprising that in the last 2 months, they could not even convert a couple of thousand cases into demand? Maybe I am misinterpreting something.

Yes, this is surprising indeed and those that get converted into demand, get approved immediately and won't show up in the demand data.

[pdfeb09]

One question (silly one), what are the dates on the left column of each table in demand data, can't be priority dates.
EB2-I shows 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and 7 cases between 2010 and 2012. Is this the I 485 filing date, but that would mean everyone except for the 7 cases who filed in last two years has been assigned a visa number.
Sorry just getting confused, its Friday

AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

[GhostWriter]

Thanks. So its them not me.

AFAIK, it does refer to the Priority Dates .... .. USCIS has in the past acknowledged and fixed such glitches .... Anything that shows the dates that were never current needs to be ignored at this time... so the 40 cases between 2009 and 2010 and the 7 cases between 2010 and 2012 need to be ignored..

[bieber]

Why are some members saying demand data is not correct?

I think they have demand only from CP case at this point, for after-Oct filers, EAD/AP doesn't mean the case is preadjudicated and ready to be approved

Huge movement similar to last bulletin is most likely

[grnwtg]

I haven't read anywhere that anyone from Nov filers received GCs yet. Do we know of such cases? On the other hand, the USCIS is just taking its own sweet time, but it seems hard to believe. 2 months is a long time, and I was expecting to see a number in 4 digits at least.

This data has only pre-adjudicated and ready to approve applications only so mostly November filers( infact many october filers) might not be ready to approve yet, if that is what you are thinking about. And also from discussion in various forums, there is little possiblity that data provided by them is not correct.

[imdeng]

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

[nishant2200]

So this is the DD for Feb VB. I have a copy of the DD for Nov VB. I know for sure that there was no DD for Jan VB. Does anyone remember whether DD was issued for Dec VB? If yes, then does anyone has a copy?

Veni maintains all records of DD in:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Cut-Off-Dates

[imdeng]

EB3I seems to be losing people from the queue rapidly (comparatively speaking, compared to 2.8K/year pace). We would expect the DD to come down by about 250 per month. Now, lets compare the DD for Nov 2011 and Feb 2012 (3 months duration)
Year-----Difference
2003-----700
2004-----900
2005-----1200
2006-----1375
2007-----1600
2011----1700

DD going down by 1700 in 3 months is quite significant. Effect of porting and demand destruction perhaps. Whatever may be the reason, it is good to see that happening. Whatever makes a dent in the 50K+ EB3I inventory is good news from a long term perspective.