EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[dreamer]

Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.

With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

[nishant2200]

Ramchand,

People who opt for CP will only receive this NVC fee notices. Based on my observations in earlier posts, if you pay the fees, it will be valid for 1 year and this is just an indicator that dates can move forward in coming bulletins.

You have one year to pay fees or request to move file to AOS. Fees once paid and accepted are valid forever.

[eb2visa]

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

[Spectator]

140 & 485 approvals


http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada

Old news. This is just a re-statement of the figures contained in All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2011) published on November 29, 2011.

[iamsam]

My PD is Jan 5 2009, and i received the NVC fee notice on 30th December 2011. So it seems 6 month rule does not necessarily apply. But it is a good sign that dates will move in next bulletin for sure.

Somebody mentioned earlier in this or other thread that one has to reply to NVC fee notice within 30 days, I guess this is incorrect. You have upto 1 year to either pay the fee or inform NVC about AOS (if one wants to change CP to AOS). Gurus please correct if i am wrong.

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

[imdeng]

We now have several confirmed reports of people with 2009 PD receiving fee notices AFTER the last VB was issued. Since CO controls both the VB and the NVC, both departments can be assumed to follow a consistent policy directive - so it does seem clear that the direction for Feb VB is forward. The magnitude of the movement is the remaining question.

None of the fee notices are deep in 2009 though - so as such we don't have support for a large movement in Feb VB from fee notices point of view.

[cool_mj007]

Every time I see visa bulletin, I try to interpret the standard paragraphs but not quite sure what they represent. Especially the paragraph listed below.
-----------------------
2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320
-----------------------

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?



Disclaimer: please ignore my lack of expertise in this subject but an overview of how the numbers work might help.

[ramchand]

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

[imdeng]

My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

Questions:
Does this mean that (hypothetically speaking) the total number of possible EB (1 to 5) + FB Green cards for any country in a year are 7% of (226K + 140K) = 25.62K?
Which means, no matter what the available SOFAD for a single country the maximum limit is set at 25.62K?
Also a spike in FB numbers could possibly suppress EB2 spillover even if there is available SOFAD?

[imdeng]

19 May 2009 has been the latest report on trackitt that seems genuine. It is from a an occassional poster who registered on trackitt in 2009 and has a history of sincere posts there.

Hi imdeng, from your recollection, what was the farthest date from 2009 PDs that got the fee notice? I am trying to estimate just how good my chances are with wife's PD of 1st april, 2009.

[cool_mj007]

Thanks imdeng, this certainly helps.

My understanding is as follows: 7% limit does applies to EB+FB visa issue - but spillovers are not counted in this limit. That is why EB3IC can not get more than 2.8K (the EB3 portion of the 7% limit: 40K*0.07) but EB2IC can get more since the category is current and spillover from EB2ROW/EB1 adds to the base 2.8K allocation. Further, a country can exceed 7% in one category as long as it is within 7% when taken as a whole (e.g. South Korea gets way more than 2.8K EB3 every year because of this loophole since their FB consumption is low)

Hope this answers your question.

[suninphx]

Last year also latest NVC notice date was Jun_jul 2008 but still dates moved past that. So lets not loose the hope, yet.

[indiasunil]

FYI : Texas Service Center
Application Received : Dec' 15th
Receipts Received : Dec' 23rd
FP Received : Jan' 04th
FP Date : Jan' 25th

[Spectator]

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum

EB2 India CP interview scheduled at Mumbai Consulate

Good news, my CP interview is scheduled at Mumbai Consulate on Feb 07, 2012

a. PD date is Mar 05, 2007 EB2 India
b. Current as of Dec 01, 2011
c. Received letter from NVC on Dec 12, 2011 saying that Mumbai Consulate is processing the case though I applied for Chennai Consulate (Starting from Jan 1st 2012 either Mumbai or Delhi will process the immigration cases it seems)
d. Received email from NVC on Jan 03, 2012 stating that Mumbai consulate scheduled interview on Feb 07, 2012
e. Submitted origianl DOB certificate to NVC still they asked me to bring original DOBC to interview (Sent email to Mumbai Consulate and waiting for their response)
f. Planning to take appointment with Apollo Hospital Chennai for medicals on 1st week of Feb (Medicals can be done at any of consulate approved hospitals)

It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[mygctracker]

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

[immitrickz]

Can we infer that Mar 15 2008 will be current for the next 2 visa bulletins?

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[nishant2200]

Yes, agreed. Ron Gotcher has pointed this benefit out earlier on his forum himself also.

One thing I don't understand is how this is possible to do CP. I mean I am working here, I have a life here, I am settled here, how can I go to India for CP, pretty sure it's not a one day thing. You have to get your documents, police clearance certificates, medicals in indian hospitals and so on. I have always been curious as to how a CP is practical for EB based petition. It may make sense in say EB4 or EB5 or EB3 nurses etc. Just a general thought to fellow forum members.

I thought this was a potentially interesting post on Ron Gotcher's forum



It says the PD is March 05, 2007 EB2 India, but it must actually be March 05, 2008 EB2 India, if it only became Current in December 2011.

So, an applicant with a PD in March 2008, that is Consular Processed, may walk out of the Consulate on February 07, 2012, knowing their case is approved.

In contrast, an AOS applicant with the same PD probably won't know until April-May 2012, by which time there is always the possibility of retrogression.

It does show the advantages CP can have, if it's a possibility.

[rockybaba]

Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

[Reader]

Hi everybody!

My case status is still showing "not found". I checked all the case number ranges and noticed that, for cases >= SRC1290067724 (TSC) , the status is up to date. However, from case SRC1290067725 and above, the online database has not been updated. For NSC, the LIN numbers are getting updated and cases show up after a week.

Anyone else with a case > SRC1290067724 able to view their case online?

Cheers

-Rocky

The last five digits of my case number is 68XXX and receipt date is 12/08 and it is still not found. I was thinking of calling the 800 number, but did not bother to do that since I have received my FP notice last week and decided to wait for another couple of weeks.

[Sandeep2011]

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

Thanks. I received the email on same day when LUDs were updated.

[indiasunil]

Is it OK if you go before FP Date ? Do i need to inform to USCIS?

Congratulations Sandeep2011. This is really fast.
Did you notice any LUDs on our case before you got email confirmation?

I'm also eagerly waiting for my EAD approval, still show Initial Review.

Thanks & Enjoy!

[EB2Jun08]

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

[RRRRRR]

Hi Guys, I have question on I-765 EAD Application. I applied for EAD earlier when I was in F1 and got for one year. Now my attorney sent me the drafts for I-765 application along with I-485 and AP. on my EAD application instead of mentioning as new EAD , he mentioned in the application as Renewal and attached my old F1 EAD. I just want to know if anyone has filed as a new EAD application even though they had EAD before during F1. Please let me know.

And also my I-485 amendment was approved last week through premium processing, earlier somebody mentioned that premium processing is not possible for I-140 amendments but that is not true. Mine and some of my friends I-140 Amendment was approved through PP.

I believe you will get a new Alien number which will be different from the one mentioned on your old EAD. It is good to provide the old information in the forms. I guess you are ok.

On I140 amendment, do you know if your amendment was filed with the original labor (as this is the per-requisite)because my understanding is original labor is submitted only once and that happens once the first I140 is filed.

I guess the other option is once you filed the amended I140 and you receive the receipt number then you can switch to premium...Any ideas which scenario was followed for you.

[mechanical13]

USCIS indicated that they anticipate increased income this FY is an important point to consider.

Are there any Fee hikes in the works? If not, how are they planning to increase income? VISA fees don't go to the USCIS, they go the DoS, so it can't be that they are considering increase in B1/B2/ F1 applications.

My thoughts are that this may be an indication that they are going to increase fees, they anticipate the number of H1s/L1 to increase substantially (not going to happen for H1, and L1 is under a lot of scrutiny these days), or they anticipate moving the priority dates for the most retrogressed countries.

Any thoughts on this line of reasoning? Am I missing something?

[mechanical13]

Now there are ways to increase revenue without simply raising fees or application intake.

Automation: Issuing FP notices, lockboxes scanning packet and streamlining intake, moving to e filing for forms instead of all manual, and so on

You are correct that the USCIS comes under the DHS, and there may be multiple ways of increasing revenue.

I however do not believe that automation will increase revenue. Revenue is money coming IN the door, and automation will reduce money going OUT the door.

If I am not mistaken, the USCIS memo to congress indicated that they anticipate revenue to increase. USCIS is of course not a for-profit enterprise, so it can't be that they were indicating that they anticipate revenue to be the same, but they anticipate income to increase via automation.

Is my understanding mistaken?