EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[nishant2200]

Sun, refer to post # 12. Yes as per the current trend EB1 will not provide any SOFAD this year. We should continue to monitor this may change.

Also look at - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ed-projections

Teddy, one thing interesting this year might be that, due to QSP, a trend would have to be watched quarter by quarter. It might be that in some quarter, EB1 does indeed provide some QSP, while in some other quarter it may not. Not only now the SO depends on the demand by EB1, but also performance by USCIS. Also I do believe that Q4 would be a quarter where in "tweaks" would be made by agencies based on policy decisions and current sentiment of the will of the country's direction makers.

One thing I am concerned about is that if CO does a huge intake as seems he is intent on doing, he may not use QSP once his intake is done, and go back to his annual SO strategy, which allows USCIS to play catch up for their low performance earlier on, or low demand from EB1 earlier on, or both. I think that QSP keeps the agencies moving, strategizing, and planning dates continuously, while a huge intake and big retrogression followed by moves by annual SO, is not good for us.

[TeddyKoochu]

Ok thanks for clarification-. Can you please correct your orginal post when get chance?

Sun I will update post # 3 which is the header of the thread by this weekend.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, one thing interesting this year might be that, due to QSP, a trend would have to be watched quarter by quarter. It might be that in some quarter, EB1 does indeed provide some QSP, while in some other quarter it may not. Not only now the SO depends on the demand by EB1, but also performance by USCIS. Also I do believe that Q4 would be a quarter where in "tweaks" would be made by agencies based on policy decisions and current sentiment of the will of the country's direction makers.

One thing I am concerned about is that if CO does a huge intake as seems he is intent on doing, he may not use QSP once his intake is done, and go back to his annual SO strategy, which allows USCIS to play catch up for their low performance earlier on, or low demand from EB1 earlier on, or both. I think that QSP keeps the agencies moving, strategizing, and planning dates continuously, while a huge intake and big retrogression followed by moves by annual SO, is not good for us.

You are correct QSP will make things interesting and require greater accountability and enhance performance. It might make them push short falling categories. Q1 2012 however Eb2 I/C appear to have got a decent share it easily is around 10K. The upcoming quarter will be very crucial to see on how the approvals come by and the date movements. Large date movements help to provide much needed temporary relief in the form of EAD / AP.

[savinir]

It means they have already decided upon the cut off date. fingers crossed..

[RRRRRR]

I am the primary applicant and work in the US. Is it an issue for AOS if spouse works outside the US at the time of filing AOS?

All the applicants must be in US at the time of filing.

[bieber]

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2012 (Coming Soon)

They put it up on the first working day. Let's see when the VB is released. The sooner the better for progressing the dates to their highest advance.

They did this for last 2 bulletins, hope we will see big movement this time too

[vizcard]

I don't mean to be a bubble burster.. but please don't go by the day when the website says "coming soon". There has been no correlation between the date when "coming soon" is on the site to when the bulletin was actually released or to the movement (or lack thereof).

[leo07]

You have posted the same question in two threads. It's already answered in the other. Please delete this if you can

Secondary applicant is in the US currently and will be filing.

Question is, if secondary applicant is employed outside of the US, is that an issue. Lawyer's questionnaire has this question : If currently employed abroad, provide the employer information. I would like to know if this will be an issue

However, there is no such question in the I 485 form itself?

[devi_pd]

Trackitt Update:

Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Nov 2011 = 287
Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Dec 2011 = 247


Surprising the dec number is smaller than the Nov number. May be people will update their cases later this month.

[leo07]

It is normal order of business. Nothing much can/should be read out of this statement.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2012 (Coming Soon)

They put it up on the first working day. Let's see when the VB is released. The sooner the better for progressing the dates to their highest advance.

[nishant2200]

good observation. Yeah let's check this back after two weeks.

If this trend holds though, or is even equaling, and just going by this trend very high level, than it's a good sign, because in Nov filing, people from 15th July 2007 to 15th August 2007 were also there, and this period, some people already filed during 2007, so if the December filing trend is less or equal to november filing trend, it would mean that the density got a bit lesser.

Trackitt Update:

Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Nov 2011 = 287
Number of EB2I applications with USCIS RD in Dec 2011 = 247


Surprising the dec number is smaller than the Nov number. May be people will update their cases later this month.

[suninphx]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on today:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)

[suninphx]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

[TeddyKoochu]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

The post seems to be fine, this could be a very positive indicator of forward movement (Creating Inventory).

[nishant2200]

is this nvc fee notice or spam ?

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/F...e/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ivaos-from-nvc

Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

[suninphx]

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/F...e/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ivaos-from-nvc




Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

Thanks for all those links Nishant.

I checked profile of the user and it looked fine. I was not very sure about the content of the email.
Agree with '6 month' caveat ...I am just happy that some one in 2009 got NVC fee notice

[zenmaster]

Awesome detailed lookup
Thanks.
I am keeping my fingers crossed.... (PD:May2009)

http://www.neopostinc.com/Products/F...e/DS-1200.aspx

neopost ds - 1200 is a machine tool to do high volume paper mailing in envelopes, it seems. So it looks like alongwith doing the paper envelope mail, the machine is also configured to send the mailing payload as a pdf attachment to a defined email address.

secondly a google search for LIVAOS leads to:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ivaos-from-nvc

Also translating this Chinese page:
http://visa01.5d6d.com/archiver/tid-13099.html
gives various references of LIVAOS

Hence adding all this up, it looks like genuine post. Chances of dates reaching this point at least now look quite good. Although it must be said that NVC notices sent out around 6 months before expectation of being current. To counter this, even before last VB, such notices got sent out and the next VB immidiately justified them.

Things are looking up.

[Spectator]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.
December 24, 2011

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

Spec,

Here are follow up numbers as on today:


Jan - July 2007 --- 789

Aug07- Mar 08 ----445

I know these are still early days but numbers are still significantly low. I will post the numbers again after two weeks and then take your help to figure out how to interpret those(if you think data to be good enough to be discussed at that point)

suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Here is an update from my side as of today (Jan 3, 2012) for cases Received by USCIS from October 01, 2011 onwards :

October VB -- PD Apr 15 2007 to Jul 14 2007 -- 100 cases
November VB - PD Jul 15 2007 to Oct 31 2007 -- 238 cases
December VB - PD Nov 01 2007 to Mar 14 2008 -- 191 cases
January VB -- PD Mar 15 2008 to Dec 31 2008 --- 15 cases

Cases for October VB have virtually dried up, but cases for all other VBs continue to be added daily. I have removed many duplicates in the data, so these are the net figures.

I will update when you next post progress.

Thanks Spec! I will post updated numbers in about 2 weeks.

[trackitgc]

This is some interesting news ... do you guys think that this news might affect future movement

http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/01...est=latestnews

[Sandeep2011]

Dear friends,

Want to share a good news. I had submitted my AOS package to TSC on 6th December (PD-Sept '07) and today i got an email informing me that they have approved my EAD and AP applications. Curiously, my finger printing is not done yet. It is scheduled for later this week. I am not sure what inference can be drawn from this but i am sure it definitely is a positive sign for several of us and our family members who have been waiting for EAD.

thanks.

[ramchand]

With regards to suninphx's post about the Nvc fee notice from trackitt, can some one please explain what this fee notice is about? Would people who opt for I-140 -> I-485 route see this? Or is it only for people who opt for CP? Sorry for the newbie question. I only have a superficial understanding of the process so far.

[longgcque]

ramchand,
When I140 is filed then attorney has an option to specify whether this immigrant for whom 140 is being filed will file 485 to adjust his status or will opt CP route in future.
For an I140 which has CP elected, on approval it goes to NVC and remains there. Then when NVC gets an idea on future date movements then it sends a notice to the person to submit fees and docs for further processing, in anticipation of working on his/her case.

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

[mechanical13]

What I have heard from experts around here is that there is usually a lag of 6 months from fee receipt notice to PD touching that date.

Hope it helps.

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.

[longgcque]

mechanical13, I agree with you, there is no documented rule to justify 6 months criteria. All I quoted was what i have heard and it roughly applies looking at past tends(la_ch_2002 reported in 8/2011 about NVC receipt and dates moved in approx 4 months, my dates are close to his PD
).

I may be incorrect here, but I do believe that seeing the NVC fee receipts does not necessary mean that the dates will only move 6 months later. In recent times,we have seen fee receipt requests within weeks of VB movement.

Other Gurus on this forum - please correct me if I am incorrect.