It is difficult to guess that as data set on the forum post is too small. It can be anywhere from 60%-80% but as 'GhostWriter' pointed out as we consider 80% conversion factor for I-140, 60% will estimate on lower end. Anything with 70-75%% could be median. I think April inventory would be the best indicator that can shed some meaningful light on this. I do not expect January inventory to be that useful, at least for 2008 and 2009 filings.Originally Posted by suninphx
I have a question on the yearly I-140 numbers mentioned in that report. Are these numbers for Jan-Dec or Oct-Sept. for the respective years?
Should be Oct to Sept
It is not clear from the report but since USCIS deals mostly in fiscal year we can assume it is fiscal year data. Although it is not explicitly stated anywhere.
Thanks for the replies guys. If we can figure this out, it will help us refine our discussion further.
These are reports from USCIS, so they should be from Oct to Sept
Yes, I tend to agree with you.
shaumack,
Indirectly, the report tells us it is FY. At the bottom of the charts, it says:
* All 2011 data includes FY 2011, Quarters 1 and 2 only
It is telling us that 2011 data represents October 2010 to March 2011 and therefore the years must be Fiscal Years, as we would expect.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
What can we expect in the next few builletins?? Will there be any drastic movement for atleast 01/01/2010??
Happy New Year !!!!
Hope 2012 brings joy and prosperity to all !
Thanks Spec, very detail oriented. This is useful.
Happy New Year to everyone! I've been a silent reader, but finally decided to register today!
In light of the ombudsman report ( http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/c..._petitions.pdf), what are the boiled down predictions for VB movement?
Another forum seems to suggest that this report supports movement deep into 2009 to build adequate inventory for FY 2012 approvals. Is this what the gurus on this forum are also predicting?
Which other forum are you talking about?... trackitt? I would be careful about what they are discussing there. Some of them are saying dates will move into late 2010- 2011 by not even taking into account both TSC and NSC data and I-485 conversion; plus they are saying spillover numbers from EB1 will be high due to low EB1-1 & EB1-2 filings and high denial rate of those petitions. We all know majority of EB1 demand comes from EB1-3 or EB1-C, petitions filed for multinational managers. I do not want to discourage anyone there because that is how I started 2 years ago but with time everyone learns complexity to the process and gets better.
If you will see report discussions from last few posts or pages, it seems current movement should bring enough demand for FY 2012 approvals. Next movement will just be a FOS (Factor Of Safety) or buffer for pipeline build in case DD is huge than taken account for. Whatever movement will happen in next few bulletins would be to build inventory and refrain CO from playing guessing game each fiscal year.
Some movement deep into 2009 is plausible but not for approvals but for some inventory build. YMMV depending upon demand from January and successive bulletin filings. It all depends on CO.
Friends here are the trends from Trackitt for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47
The EB1 Approvals on Trackitt seem to be completely overshadowed by EB1C. The Trackitt data maybe skewed because 63 of the 74 cases are from India. However the higher figures are quite consistent with the extraordinary rate of clearance of I140's from May to Sep 2011 - http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1.
Even though the number of EB1 B cases is small the number it id double of the previous year’s figures, this may indicate that finally the applications are coming out of the backlog related to the interpretation of the Kazarian Memo.
The Trackitt trend of 3 fold cannot be believed quite literally. However assuming that last year Eb1 provided 12K SOFAD so last years consumption was 28K, so in theory even a 50% acceleration can quite literally clean up all EB1 SOFAD. At the current stage I believe that assuming that EB1 will provide No SOFAD this year may be quite reasonable we are only assuming a 50% increase as opposed to 200% shown by Trackitt data. This assumption maybe classified from liberal to realistic.
Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.
The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.
To conclude based on the Trackitt Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.
Teddy nice summary. You may want to check these two numbers. I am little confused about them.
EB5 - used 4.2K last fiscal year as per released data from USCIS on EB5 enhancement. So that difference from 5.6K to 7K can be attributed to EB1 or EB2-ROW.
Second figure 5.5K on EB2ROW SOFAD has 5.5K deducted twice unless you are saying EB2 M-P consumption is 0 and would yield 5.5K SO or is it a typo?
Thanks, summary looks awesome and trend points towards less SOFAD for this year.
Last edited by shaumack; 01-01-2012 at 10:12 PM.
Shaumack thanks for your feedback.
- Thanks for your feedback on EB5 I did not know the exact figures thanks for providing the same.
- For the ROW calculation I have assumed a simplistic assumption that EB2 M/P as part of ROW itself. You see 2 subtractions of 5.5 one of them is 5.5K SOFAD last year and one of them is the regular cap of 5.5K coincidence both values are same. We should calculate the percentage reduction on this figure as the reduction is based on the consumption last year.
Thanks Teddy that makes sense and clears the doubt. One last question; please excuse me for being picky.
If we say NO spillover from EB1,
SOFAD = 13.5K (Eb2 ROW) + 5.5K (Regular Cap) + 7K(EB5) = 26K. This is 4K less compared to 30K but you suggested 8K. Am I missing anything here?
In any case 13.5K still look far more optimistic from EB2-ROW because I know still many EB2-ROW from July 2011 filings waiting for I-485 approvals as am I from TSC.
Last edited by shaumack; 01-01-2012 at 10:54 PM.
Thanks, I greatly appreciate your feedback and feel happy that it stimulated a good discussion. We kind of agree that No spillover from Eb1 is fairly realistic the Trackitt data is indeed skewed up by Indian EB1C but it’s not incorrect altogether this means we settle at 50% extra instead of 200%.
Similarly for EB2 ROW I believe that the extra spillover theoretically comes to 8K maybe let’s cut it into half as I suggested it in the next line of my original post so this will make it 9.5K in your equation. Reason being more that 50% of EB2 Row approvals came just last month so some kind of peaking is going on here, exactly same kind of thing happened last year as well, ROW was initially behind but not caught up but crossed the last year on Trackitt.
All in all coming down from 30K to 22K is quite significant furthermore a good portion of the 22K has been spent so even assuming the more drastic rates of demand destruction causes very little change to the final outcome.
I agree SOFAD for this year will be around 20K-24K range but nothing more than that unless PERM approvals for ROW/M/P totally dries out in 2012.
The statement in red hits a bulls eye and many folks still are not ready to agree with it. Majority of visa numbers are used and any drastic DD is not much useful for this year. It may only affect cut-off date determination by couple of months (1-2 months) here and there on retrogression.
Last edited by shaumack; 01-01-2012 at 11:18 PM.
Teddy - thanks for this detailed post. Bottom line of this data is that we really really need some legislative relief and soon.
Its really frustrating to be at mercy of someone for spillover. I also have a feeling that Eb1C is kinda bringing themselves on radar with so many approvals. It's hard to imagine that there are almost equal number of international managers required as developers.. Ok end of rant.
what's percentage range trackitt trend has been reliable in past?
Last edited by suninphx; 01-02-2012 at 12:22 AM.
Thanks All
I assume this is based without considering the HR 3012 . What will be the impact on dates if HR 3012 get passed ?
Its better to talk about it after it has passed, signed by the president, and enforced into law.
Is this means, we can't expect any more movement until Oct 2012????????
From Jan 2012 bulletin is there any meaning to
D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.
Last edited by eb2visa; 01-02-2012 at 12:01 PM.
eb2visa, this statement was made when they had only had November filings (15th july 2007 to 31st October 2007), and around a week gone by for December filings (1st November 2007 to 14th March 2008).
When time for next bulletin comes, they will have had December filings completed, and around a week for January filings (15th March 2008 to 31st December 2008).
I believe the filings generated by these three bulletins should be enough for this years visa consumption. Any further move will be at DOS discretion to build inventory, taking advantage of time lag between filing and actual visa demand.
I am not a lawyer, and it's always best to consult an immigration attorney.
Look at Appendix B-1 at the end for India's PERM data
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ual_Report.pdf
http://www.myvisajobs.com/Document/D...ual_Report.pdf
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ormanceRpt.pdf
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