EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[Spectator]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

qblogfan,

I am happy to finally hear the good news!

The change in Job Title is of no consequence, since you say the job duties are unchanged.

[srd4gc]

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...

It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

QBF, congratulations, finally freedom is in sight for you. You are an asset to this forum. The I140 job title is the future job title as requested as of that time, as long as a same or similar job title with similar kind of duties, work profile and responsibilities is submitted on the 485 EVL it should be fine. The G325 form is more of a log for the last 5 years. All the best, keep pushing your employer and attorney for the filing sooner. Iam sure once you get greened your current employer itself will start treating you differently and yes the world is open after that anyway. Good luck and all the best.

[frenzyrider]

Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy

[vp5856]

Gurus, any thoughts on this -
I have gone thru trackitt dashboard/postings with recently approved I-485. I hardly see any cases of approval with the filings based on VB Sep11 (PD 15APR07) and after.
Given I-485 processing takes 3-5 months, wondering if QSP/monthly SO is actually happening; given 07/07 pending approvals getting cleared slowly though.

Do you thing I will be approved in Feb/March (Q2-12 QSP) or later (Q4-12 no QSP) in the summer or early Q1/13 ?

My details -
FD 11/02/11.
ND 11/08/11.
PD 09/22/07.
EAD and AP 12/10/11.
FP scheduled on 01/05/12 (FP appt letter 12/10/11).

[desi4green]

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

[suninphx]

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

Congratulations!

Seems they have visa numbers available.

[desi4green]

Thanks. Yes based on the conversations earlier, I was not expecting but I guess lucks on my side.

[vp5856]

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Frenzy .... yes she can reenter on H1. No worries whatsoever.

Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

desi - congratulations. Enjoy the rest of the year .... take off!

[suninphx]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

[suninphx]

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.

[vp5856]

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856

[Pdmar08]

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856

Vp,
This sounds tragic. What did I miss?

[nishant2200]

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...

Nope, let's see the Post 485 filing thread started by our friend leo. I would also advise following the trackitt thread of people who filed in December and for a hint of things to come, the people who filed in november thread.

You will see on those, two people just claiming that dec filers and NSC, and they got FP notice. But mostly if you see people who filed in Nov thread, for NSC, it is taking at least a month after the receipt notice date, to send FP notice. And EAD/AP is taking like 40-50 days from notice date. Hopefully they ramp it up.

[nishant2200]

You will be greened this FY for sure, that's only thing with most guarantee.

If dates do not retrogress, you may be greened during Feb/March and further, if dates do retrogress, I do expect them to be at your PD level in Q4.

QSP is certainly being done, further monthly fine tuning in that would be totally on agency's discretion. for example in Q1 of this FY, they really needed a precise fine tuning, and they all worked hand in hand to do it.

Gurus, any thoughts on this -
I have gone thru trackitt dashboard/postings with recently approved I-485. I hardly see any cases of approval with the filings based on VB Sep11 (PD 15APR07) and after.
Given I-485 processing takes 3-5 months, wondering if QSP/monthly SO is actually happening; given 07/07 pending approvals getting cleared slowly though.

Do you thing I will be approved in Feb/March (Q2-12 QSP) or later (Q4-12 no QSP) in the summer or early Q1/13 ?

My details -
FD 11/02/11.
ND 11/08/11.
PD 09/22/07.
EAD and AP 12/10/11.
FP scheduled on 01/05/12 (FP appt letter 12/10/11).

[nishant2200]

sun, I don't know if this was always like this, but I find it most annoying that many people on trackitt, whose posts I find of interest, and then click on their profile to see their case details, have not added it.

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

[nishant2200]

Congratulations!

Seems they have visa numbers available.

Yes, that is a good observation.

I really hope that demand from other categories remain low to permit dates remaining current to a greater expanse and CO continues QSP happily. It is like the freeways of Los Angeles, better to make as much distance while there is a lane that can be passed onto, a quick sprint that can be made, you never know when you hit the 8 lane full 10mph.

[suninphx]

sun, I don't know if this was always like this, but I find it most annoying that many people on trackitt, whose posts I find of interest, and then click on their profile to see their case details, have not added it.

Yeah my assumption is % of those set of people would be common factor across different time periods.

[Spectator]

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 onwards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Thanks for sharing. I agree that the Trackitt % may change and it therefore makes the data less reliable. In fact it is very difficult at present to know what conversion factor to use.

Here's a different perspective.

I looked at the data with USCIS Received dates from October 2011 on wards and by the PD range made current in each VB. I have looked at Primary applicants only, because Trackitt is not reliable for Dependent numbers.

October VB - 92 cases
November VB - 225 cases
December VB - 151 cases

I also looked at when the cases were added to the Tracker by the user for the October VB movement.

The average date is 19 days after the USCIS Receipt Date, the median is 14 days after the USCIS Receipt Date and the Max to date is 72 days after USCIS Receipt Date.

Within the range that conversion factors were bouncing around last year, the number of Trackitt applications for October and November VB movements are reasonably consistent with those expected for an OR of 0.8. It is not possible to be very precise about this yet.

The December figures are low, but since the time to add a case to Trackitt after USCIS Receipt may be 14-19 days, they may well only represent a fraction of the Trackitt cases we will eventually see for movement in the December VB.

I hope this helps in thinking about the subject.

Sure that helps. Specially time lag calculations Thanks Spec!

I should have added one more factor which is number of PERMS for this time period. I believe that number of PERMS for Aug 07- Mar 08 is more than Jan 07- Jul 07. I will add china figures to I-485calculations and then post those figures along with IC PERM numbers.

[suninphx]

Sure that helps. Specially time lag calculations Thanks Spec!

I should have added one more factor which is number of PERMS for this time period. I believe that number of PERMS for Aug 07- Mar 08 is more than Jan 07- Jul 07. I will add china figures to I-485calculations and then post those figures along with IC PERM numbers.

Added PERM figures for IC


Time Period PERMS(I+C) I485 (I+C)
---------------- -------------- ---------------

Jan 07-Jul 07 17093 827 (775+52)

Aug 07-Mar08 19767 393 (378+15)

[iatiam]

Off topic. Please delete if not appropriate. Found this article in CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/24/us/imm...ire/index.html

My blood boils when people come here illegally and then complain that they don't get hand-outs. I have been here 8 years legally, pay taxes and still don't even have an EAD. Not sure what these people want - a US citizenship.

[qesehmk]

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.

Off topic. Please delete if not appropriate. Found this article in CNN,
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/24/us/imm...ire/index.html

My blood boils when people come here illegally and then complain that they don't get hand-outs. I have been here 8 years legally, pay taxes and still don't even have an EAD. Not sure what these people want - a US citizenship.

[asankaran]

You are absolutely correct Q. It shows the depth of knowledge you have in this subject. I recently attended advocacy effort and when I really saw the human face behind the mere EB2/EB3 folks it was really moving. Some of the EB3 folks are really old and do not have any clue what the reality is. Some of the families have kids who are close to getting aged out and can no longer be dependents on their parents. This is really not fair.

I initially had hopes on "Republicans" but now I feel "Democrats" are better in this. As long as any politician doesn't understand the human nature behind this problem and they take about legal, illegal it's absolute B.S. You know why "Reagan" was able to get America out of recession and create more jobs..The single reason was "immigration"..

iatiam, unfortunately life is not fair. Life is not a straightline arrow. It has its ebbs and flows. So I agree to the "unfairness" feeling that you express.

The way "illegal" immigration is being targeted today, tomorrow any legal immigration will be targeted. The extreme right in US, when they say they are opposed to illegal immigration - are in truth opposed to any immigration. "Illegal" is just a codeword to rally their troops.

But at the end of the day, we need to look at immigration as a humane issue. Every immigrant has a story and a very powerful one. Yes.... some get more lucky than others. I wouldn't deny that. But as far as I am concerned, this part of the world always belonged to those who ventured and conquered. Where was the definition of legality then? Did anybody get any visa from Cherokees or Navajos? Or did anybody get any visa from Mexico when Texas and California were annexed. So I would let the law deal with the definition of legality.

Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to criticize.