EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

Yup. See below in red, there have been several very well done analysis of potential impact of HR-3012 on PD movement - a perusal of posts in past couple of months will give you the details, calculations and rationale.

My 2 cents. I dont think HR.3012 has anything to do with priority date movement. Few reasons why.
1) The bill provides no new visas, just the removal of country based numerical limits for EB petitioners. Not relevant for current PD movement
2) Bill doesn't kick in till 2015. Bill is effective FY 2012 (that is from Oct 2011), the transition mechanisms run till 2015
3) If at all the bill had an impact it should be on EB3 I/C and not EB2 as they have been waiting for a visa the longest. Am I missing something here? The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill
4)If I had a high power political office, under a democratic president, I would likely not go act on anything immigration related, in an election year unless I am absolutely certain that the bill would pass. Not to mention the governments incentives to prevent any blowback from all of this. To be sure, CO has not acted on anything. Its not like extra visas are being given. CO is just gathering inventory that will make it easier to implement HR-3012 if it became law. If it did not then CO just needs to retrogress accordingly - and no harm done.

[Reader]

Quick question for those who have already crossed this bridge...

After receiving the receipt notice, how long it takes to reflect that in USCIS check status. I received the receipts 2 days ago and when I tried to check the status in USCIS web site, it says "Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status".

[mrhyderabad]

Thanks Teddy/ imdeng , I'll Pray god my PD will current next bulletin.
I will follow the way as per your advise!!!

Just pray GOD and keep your documents ready. I am also doing the same in anticipation of my PD becoming current.

[BBear123]

Yup. See below in red, there have been several very well done analysis of potential impact of HR-3012 on PD movement - a perusal of posts in past couple of months will give you the details, calculations and rationale.

Cool. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I am kinda new to the ballgame. Ill check out the past posts.

The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill

Alright, my mistake was assuming that I assumed categories were done with. Clearly not what the bill intends to do.

If at all the bill had an impact it should be on EB3 I/C and not EB2 as they have been waiting for a visa the longest. Am I missing something here? The distribution of visas within the category - both EB2 and EB3 is significantly affected by the bill. SOFAD is not affected by the bill

It shouldn't matter though, if H.R 3012 did become law, all available EB3 visa numbers should go towards EB3 I/C petitions. If CO was trying to buffer for the passage of H.R 3012, he should advance EB3 I/C as well as EB2.

[imdeng]

There is no need to advance PD for EB3IC since CO is sitting on an EB3IC inventory of 50K+ thanks to 07/07. Meanwhile, inventory of EB2IC is almost zero and will remain at that level until the intake in last few months become documentarily qualified. For getting ready for HR-3012, CO needs large inventory of pre-adjudicated, documentarily qualified applications that he can quickly assign visa numbers when HR-3012 passes. That's why it makes sense to advance EB2IC PD and not EB3IC PD.
Also - even after HR-3012 passes, all visa numbers will not go to EB3IC - the transition plan provides 85% of the visa numbers to IC in the first year. However, the actual distribution is likely to be lower than 85% since by the time the bill passes and becomes law, we would surely have assigned more than 15% of the available visas for the category to ROW.

It shouldn't matter though, if H.R 3012 did become law, all available EB3 visa numbers should go towards EB3 I/C petitions. If CO was trying to buffer for the passage of H.R 3012, he should advance EB3 I/C as well as EB2.

[imdeng]

Keep your documents ready, hope it works out for you. Also - pay it forward by supporting HR-3012 by calling your Senators.

Thanks Teddy/ imdeng , I'll Pray god my PD will current next bulletin.
I will follow the way as per your advise!!!

[BBear123]

There is no need to advance PD for EB3IC since CO is sitting on an EB3IC inventory of 50K+ thanks to 07/07. Meanwhile, inventory of EB2IC is almost zero and will remain at that level until the intake in last few months become documentarily qualified. For getting ready for HR-3012, CO needs large inventory of pre-adjudicated, documentarily qualified applications that he can quickly assign visa numbers when HR-3012 passes. That's why it makes sense to advance EB2IC PD and not EB3IC PD.
Also - even after HR-3012 passes, all visa numbers will not go to EB3IC - the transition plan provides 85% of the visa numbers to IC in the first year. However, the actual distribution is likely to be lower than 85% since by the time the bill passes and becomes law, we would surely have assigned more than 15% of the available visas for the category to ROW.

Much obliged for the info.

[imdeng]

Assuming that Demand Destruction is real - lets say EB2IC demand of 1600/month in 2007 (from Apr-15), 1800/month in 2008 and 1200/month in 2009. This gives us a total 2012 FY pipeline of 1600*8.5 + 1800*12 = 13600 + 21600 ~ 40K.

Now, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law on Jan-31st, then by that time we would have distributed four months worth of EB2ROW visas. If we consider ROW demand to be 2K/month - that is 8K to ROW. Since this is already more than 15% of 40K, all remaining EB2 visas will go to IC: 32K. Further, lets add a spillover of 8K from EB1. So total EB2IC visa needed: 32K + 8K = 40K.

As you can see, given our sets of assumptions, the entire inventory up to Jan-01-2009 will get cleared if HR-3012 is passed by the end of Jan-2012. Now, what does it mean for the next VB? The only movement left is for a possible extra buffer. Assuming a buffer of 6K, it amounts to 5 months demand in 2009 (6/1.2).

So my (worthless) prediction for next VB: 01-Jan-09 + 5 Months = 01-JUN-09.

Of course, the above will get adjusted up or down depending upon how actual numbers that USCIS/DoS observe differ from the assumptions above. For the record, the case above is quite optimistic and probably the best case scenario.

If HR-3012 actually passes by end of Jan-2012, then based on assumptions above, all EB2IC demand up to 01-Jan-09 (40K) will get consumed in FY2012. DoS will need additional EB2IC inventory for the large demand for visa numbers in FY2013. At 90% of EB2 and 8K spillover from EB1, EB2IC will need 0.9*40 + 8 = 44K applications. This will easily cover the entire 2009 (1.2K*12 = 14.4K) and 2010 (2.5K*12 = 30K). I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 3K/month density in 2011 - that is 2 months' demand.

So my prediction for PD for the Mar VB, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law by end of Jan 2012: 01-MAR-2011.

[gkjppp]

So many factors comes into consideration for Visa movements. I can say, i got minimal knowledge in this subject,but based on Guru's inputs< DD between 30% to 38%> dates further moves till end of Dec 2009 in coming 2 bulletins , which builds pipeline of 45K to 50K.we are all aware now AUG/SEP07 filers are getting GC's, so instead of retro, it STALLS there till end of Sep 2012. Even without HR 3012,with SOFAD 2012 dates moves to Apr 2010 between OCT 2012 to Jan 2013. if HR 3012 gets Senators approval by Mar 2012, logistics changes.

[Transformer]

Assuming that Demand Destruction is real - lets say EB2IC demand of 1600/month in 2007 (from Apr-15), 1800/month in 2008 and 1200/month in 2009. This gives us a total 2012 FY pipeline of 1600*8.5 + 1800*12 = 13600 + 21600 ~ 40K.

Now, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law on Jan-31st, then by that time we would have distributed four months worth of EB2ROW visas. If we consider ROW demand to be 2K/month - that is 8K to ROW. Since this is already more than 15% of 40K, all remaining EB2 visas will go to IC: 32K. Further, lets add a spillover of 8K from EB1. So total EB2IC visa needed: 32K + 8K = 40K.

As you can see, given our sets of assumptions, the entire inventory up to Jan-01-2009 will get cleared if HR-3012 is passed by the end of Jan-2012. Now, what does it mean for the next VB? The only movement left is for a possible extra buffer. Assuming a buffer of 6K, it amounts to 5 months demand in 2009 (6/1.2).

So my (worthless) prediction for next VB: 01-Jan-09 + 5 Months = 01-JUN-09.

Of course, the above will get adjusted up or down depending upon how actual numbers that USCIS/DoS observe differ from the assumptions above. For the record, the case above is quite optimistic and probably the best case scenario.

If HR-3012 actually passes by end of Jan-2012, then based on assumptions above, all EB2IC demand up to 01-Jan-09 (40K) will get consumed in FY2012. DoS will need additional EB2IC inventory for the large demand for visa numbers in FY2013. At 90% of EB2 and 8K spillover from EB1, EB2IC will need 0.9*40 + 8 = 44K applications. This will easily cover the entire 2009 (1.2K*12 = 14.4K) and 2010 (2.5K*12 = 30K). I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 2K/month density in 2011 - that is 3 months' demand.

So my prediction for PD for the Mar VB, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law by end of Jan 2012: 01-APR-2011.

Did you consider the family factor in your calculations??

[kd2008]

Another look at trackitt trend

I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM


We might see more additions to Sep 2007 - Feb 2008 period in future, but it unlikely to go more than double what it is right now.

Since this is I485EB trend, it is a more clearer sign of the demand or rather demand destruction

This may give us a factor of much less than 1 for PERM to I-485 conversion to demand. I am thinking more like 0.6 to 0.7. Lets see what happens in Jan 2012 USCIS I-485 inventory report.

[Feb262009]

Pls move this to appropriate thread after reply.

I need some advice. My pd is Feb 26, 2009. I see lot of positive predictions that I may get current in Feb bulletin. Meanwhile my husband is on h1b. His h1b extension is pending. His previous 797 date ended in oct 2010. He is in the process of h1b transfer for EVC model with no client letter. He thinks this move is really good for his future employment.

He has to start his new job in 2weeks. Lca is applied last week. H1b transfer will be applied in premium.

Question is, if we get RFE on h1b transfer, and we get current in Feb bulletin, will we be in trouble as far as the status is concerned?

[suninphx]

Another look at trackitt trend

I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM


We might see more additions to Sep 2007 - Feb 2008 period in future, but it unlikely to go more than double what it is right now.

Since this is I485EB trend, it is a more clearer sign of the demand or rather demand destruction

This may give us a factor of much less than 1 for PERM to I-485 conversion to demand. I am thinking more like 0.6 to 0.7. Lets see what happens in Jan 2012 USCIS I-485 inventory report.

Is there any set time period when inventory comes out? Like 1st week of Jan etc?

[imdeng]

Demand numbers I have used are all inclusive.

Did you consider the family factor in your calculations??

[imdeng]

My understanding is that I-485 tracker is only for people who have filed 485. Now, of course almost all applicants with PD between Jan-Jun 2007 did so more than four years back - but Sep 07 to Feb 08 people have just had the opportunity to do so a couple months back - it takes a while for people to get around to creating account in trackitt, put info in tracker etc. Plus people who filed recently have had their dates current since they filed - so they have a lot less worry than the pre 07/07 crowd - that also leads to less obsessive tracking and hence less numbers in 485 tracker.

I-485EB tracker:

EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent

Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM

[Spectator]

I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 2K/month density in 2011 - that is 3 months' demand.[/B]

imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

[kd2008]

imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

In addition, 2010 PERMs are heavily loaded at the end. Jan 2010 to Sept 2010 amounts to 15k and last three months amount to almost 9k

[imdeng]

Spec - you are right - 2011 does seem more dense than 2010. I was writing from memory and even though I remember the discussion here regarding high PERM density in 2011, I still had the impression that 2010 is most dense - not the case as your data clearly shows. Thanks for pointing out.

imdeng,

I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.

The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India

In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.

[dce.deepak]

Hi Guys,

I have a question related to I-693 form. I went for medical test today and my doctor told me that HepA and HepB is only required for under 19 and only four are required for above 19 ( Td, MMR, Varicella and Flu ). I took those four but I am wondering about the HepA and HepB.
Does any one knows more about this. I cant seem to find more info on this by age either on CDC or USCIS

Sorry for posting here but I tried first on other section (I-485) and no one seems to be active there

[iamsheshu]

From this post http://desiways.wordpress.com/ it seems that HepA and HepB is required. Not sure though. I'm going tomorrow for the Medical Exam. Will check with them.

[nishant2200]

Mine did not give either. He checked blood test, and obtained proof of antibodies for MMR, Varicella. He gave me Tdap and Flu. Maybe he also checked for Hep in my blood test, not sure, he ordered a whole lot of tests, including CBC, and various blood panels (I work in medical industry so know this stuff), in fact he even checked my cholesterol, diabetes etc, since the blood test covered by insurance.

Hi Guys,

I have a question related to I-693 form. I went for medical test today and my doctor told me that HepA and HepB is only required for under 19 and only four are required for above 19 ( Td, MMR, Varicella and Flu ). I took those four but I am wondering about the HepA and HepB.
Does any one knows more about this. I cant seem to find more info on this by age either on CDC or USCIS

Sorry for posting here but I tried first on other section (I-485) and no one seems to be active there

[mar292010]

Hi All
I'm new to this forum and joined this yesterday. My PD is March 2010 EB2 India, please can you tell me when can my PD be current. Thanks

[Jonty Rhodes]

Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

[manzoorraza]

Jonty,
This is very possible as the GC is for future employment. One of my friends had some issues with his H1 while he had an approved 140 and had to go to India to come back on H4 where he had preblems getting that stamped too........ ended up being stuck there for a few months. More complications followed as the visa officer put his case on hold and questioned his wife's H1 (both were through the same company). During that time his attorney had told him that in the worst case he would be able to file for 485 on the basis of his already approved 140 and an emplyment offer whenever the date became current for him. Fortunately for him he was able to come back on H4 and then got another H1 to start working. His original priority date was Feb 2008 and I believe he filed for an adjustment of status on that basis already on 1st December.

Am not sure how many such cases could exist but there is a possibility that there might be a few...would not expect them to be significant though. Also, am not sure who would want to move back here as people back home are doing a lot better than what's going on here. On ligher note.....they have more stable jobs, good money, decent savings rate and best of all they are closer to friends and family. We on the other hand are cleaning our own toilets, living paycheck to paycheck, doing lot of sulking alone while waiting for the next visa bulletin ..lol

Gurus, I have a question.

Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.

I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.

Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?

Please educate me.

[gkjppp]

per current trend hopefully yours will become current anywhere between Oct - Dec2012 ( without HR 3012 ) , if HR 3012 becomes law you can expect to file during summer 2012.