EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[veni001]

Ron Gotcher has an interesting response to someone asking whether PDs will continue to progress or whether there will be some retrogression. Here is what he said:


Hmm... I guess he is saying that retrogression is not needed at the moment since USCIS is not ready to ask for visa numbers after processing 485s received this FY. Since Jan will bring new Quarterly spillover visa numbers for EB2IC, retrogression may not be needed until the current VB intake gets processed (Jan-12 + 6 months?). So we may have PD move forward a little or retrogress in late summer once all the spillovers are allotted and no more visa numbers are available. Thoughts?

Ron further continues in another post regarding possibility of retrogression to 2007 or 2008:

Link to thread: http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=15831

All I have to say is WOW!!!

2009 folks can start partying if this is true indeed.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

And what about the demand numbers? If those people got approved and got their GCs in EB2, wouldn't EB3-I reflect it? Have we seen any evidence of this?

Final silly question: People here say that about 3K/year cases from EB3 get upgraded to EB2. So post 2007, around 12K cases got upgraded (it has to be much more as the upgrades were far more in the aftermath of July 2007 bus). So we should have counted these cases in the 2008/2009 PERM data and actually subtracted those porting numbers? Is that what Ron is saying? If so, how come the Gurus missed it here?

imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.

sportsfan33,
That is a very good point. One thing Ron doesn't understand is CY-FY breakdown of PERM approvals for 2008 & 2009 PD's

For IC filers with PD2008 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 27,715

FY2008 = 9,464 (33.9%)
FY2009 = 12,273 (44.1%)
FY2010 = 4,368 (15.5%)
FY2011 = 1,610 (5.7%)


For IC files with PD2009 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 18,789

FY2009 = 10 (0%)
FY2010 = 17,223 (92%)
FY2011 = 1,556 (8%)


For ROW-M-P files with PD2008 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 37,480

FY2008 = 13,895 (36.9%)
FY2009 = 14,059 (37.5%)
FY2010 = 6,574 (17.4%)
FY2011 = 2,952 (7.7%)


For ROW-M-P files with PD2009 approval breakdown is as follows

Total CY approvals to-date = 22,936

FY2009 = 8 (0%)
FY2010 = 21,199 (92.2%)
FY2011 = 1,729 (7.5%)

As we can see most of PD2008 approvals are from FY2009&FY2010 also most of PD2009 approvals are from FY2010. In addition FY2010 and FY2011 are the two great years for SOFAD.

If what ever Ron's assumption(guess) is correct should have made significant dent across the board for EB3, which is not the case based on inventory reports!

[BBear123]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

I am not sure you can draw correlation from an online database that is purely voluntary. It seems like there was a drop in PERM applications approved in 2009 from the DOL statistics but that's about all that you can safely say.

[suninphx]

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

KD that's very interesting statistics. Thanks. This is inline with demand destruction theory being discussed extensively recently. There may not be many takers right now as there is no solid data to back this up. So let's wait for some concrete evidence I guess. ( I believe that there is possibility of substantial DD in PD 2008 BTW).

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

Please share your experiences or suggestions

Thanks

[kd2008]

Please share your experiences or suggestions

Thanks

Yes it is ok. don't worry about it. Your employment verification letter will list your duties which will be very similar to the PERM job description. Even if the job description is not same, the attorney is never going to willfully lie in your application just so you can get a GC.

[imdeng]

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

As we can see most of PD2008 approvals are from FY2009&FY2010 also most of PD2009 approvals are from FY2010. In addition FY2010 and FY2011 are the two great years for SOFAD.

[imdeng]

You are correct - a EB3IC person with PD before 2007 will have an EAD but likely no GC. Any future PERM/I-140 in EB2 will carry the EB3 PD and will become immediately current upon approval and will consume EB2 visa numbers.

imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.

[suninphx]

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

Veni - I have same question.

[msdhoni]

Thanks for your reply Teddy. I have this question as my Perm with Employer B is filed in July 2011 and approved. Am I still eligible to file 140 and 485 together thru employer B.

By all means you should try to convince company B to file I140 and 485 concurrently because the dates may retrogress at some point of time. By concurrent filing you can guarantee EAD / AP for yourself.

[TeddyKoochu]

All I have to say is WOW!!!

2009 folks can start partying if this is true indeed.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

And what about the demand numbers? If those people got approved and got their GCs in EB2, wouldn't EB3-I reflect it? Have we seen any evidence of this?

Final silly question: People here say that about 3K/year cases from EB3 get upgraded to EB2. So post 2007, around 12K cases got upgraded (it has to be much more as the upgrades were far more in the aftermath of July 2007 bus). So we should have counted these cases in the 2008/2009 PERM data and actually subtracted those porting numbers? Is that what Ron is saying? If so, how come the Gurus missed it here?

EB3I IS actually moving faster than just 2.8K/year. In last one year, EB3I inventory has gone down from 59K to 53K - double the usual county quota. Even with people falling out from inventory with porting, a 2.8K quota per year does not do much for the really dense 2002/2003 for EB3I.

Guys you have actually described the methodology for the porting calculation. Porting really picked pace after Sep 2009 when clinical approvals started for the first time. In Sep 2009 the entire chunk of Eb2 I/C for 2004 were approved and EB3 became unavailable. So really yes after we cross Sep 2009 we should be deducting 3K from the perm figures assuming the transformation ratio of 1. Since we have not hit this time yet it is really not a factor till 01-JAN-2009. So now if really lesser number of 485's are filed than what comes by the transformation ratio of 1 it can be attributed to demand destruction as people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. On another note the market was bad for the financial sector, IT was slightly better, definitely not good, 75% of EB2 I is probably IT.

[suninphx]

My point was porting is definitely not a factor in this zone. If lesser number of 485's has really been received then it can be attributed solely to demand destruction. You make a valid point many people who filed perm in 2008 saw cases going into audit, many people may have been in the 6th year of H1 and possibly could not extend it or for many the 1-2 year wait for perm was just too long, so even if the perms finally got approved they were kind of redundant. 75% EB2 - I being IT is just my own guess / gut feel no calculations / numbers to that that’s what I indicated in my post, apologies for not being clearer.
On another note when CO decided the Jan bulletin only the NOV filers PD till 01-NOV-2007 should really have been truly visible to him, the Dec filing was just picking up till that time. The Nov filing is truly restricted to 2007 at that point of time perm was quite normal, even for Dec filers till Mar 15 29008 perm situation was normal it just became worse from Mid 2008. So I guess either there was definite demand destruction, lesser numbers coming based on what they expected (We do not know what was their expectation) or just discretion or a mix of all. However whatever happened is very good for everyone in 2008 it gives people to file for EAD / AP. In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.

[doctorp]

Sorry If I am posting on the wrong thread, we received the receipt notices and my wife has a different A number than what was on her EAD while doing OPT, is this common? Should i be worried?

[TheTexan]

Hello friends,

Sorry for posting my question in this thread but I did not get a clear answer on the other one. My question is that my birth certificate is in my mother tongue (marathi), so do we need a certified translation or consulate version of the birth certificate?

Thanks

[imdeng]

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.

Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.

In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

[wantgcnow]

Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

[goforgreen]

Yes thats true, reducing the wait time for EAD to three years (possibly 2.5 or 2 based on further movement) is quite positive. For me with Dec 2007 PD filing 485 itself was a distant dream leave alone GC. But after this movement the dates will stabilize to 4 year for EAD and 4.5 years for GC. Of course if HR 3012 passes it will be much less, all the more reason we have to support this legislation in Senate. Please call and write to your senators about supporting this. If you are ok with donating to the unnamed forum you can do that as well.

[self.coach]

If you apply for EAD today when can you expect to get GC? After GC how much time does it take to be a citizen?

[dec2007]

Nishanth,

What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

thanks,

[TeddyKoochu]

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.

Thanks Teddy. You mean 3 years for Dec 2008, right?

Guys yes its 3 years, thanks for the correction its a good improvement for the wait time in a positive direction.

[kpt112107]

Costco is good and reasonable.
They will give u picture in 15 mins. If you don;t like quality then they will retake snap at free of cost. Take out glasses if you have just to avoid glare and all....

Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

[gc2008]

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

[tometukuri]

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

[manzoorraza]

Guys,
Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
Thanks
Manzoor

[belmontboy]

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

No need to worry about that.
Saw the same with our case too.

your case link's to your wife's.

[memk26]

Hello Experts...
Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
Thank you