EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[romanitaly]

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[grnwtg]

This is great stuff Spec, hopefully demand destruction is little higher

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

[immitime]

I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.

I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!

[srd4gc]

Congrats to everyone who got current!!!!

[codesmith]

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.

Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers. Today’s bulletin is great news for every one of us especially for those who became current it’s a great feeling. The movement though is definitely in the territory of discretion even though there may have been more destruction than thought off or HR 3012 looks like CO has made his call based on his own discretion and judgment. Only the new inventory can bring us true insight in reality. With discretion reigning supreme as of now nothing can be said of what may happen next month, good luck to everyone. Let’s wait and watch and hope for the best now for everyone who is on the cusp of being current.

[imdeng]

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.

I think the term Demand Destruction is misleading since it only points to people leaving US and going home (India/China). While that has surely happened, that can not explain the extent of reduction in 485 demand compared to PERM filings that is being implied in the VB. Other significant factors are people changing jobs and filing new PERMs and spouses working with their own PERM filings. All of this results in lower PERM to 485 ratio - maybe just call it PERM Conversion Ratio or something (suggestions?). Our accepted wisdom has been a PERM Conversion Ratio of 1.0 - I wonder how much we need to adjust it lower.

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

[FONT="Courier New"]------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

[imdeng]

You can file on or after Jan 01, 2012. You can file after Jan 31st as well if the dates do not retrogress beyond your PD. In Jan 1st week the next VB will be out and you will know whether Jan 31st is your deadline or whether you can go into Feb for filing. Although, given the fluid situation - just get in as soon as possible.

Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?

[PlainSpeak]

I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!

Backdoor negotiations yeah right !!! (Wink !!!!!). Proof is in the pudding and will wait til teh oudding is in hand before believing it.
Just to let you know that your post has not generated even 0.00000001 % hopoe in me or other EB3 indians....
Appreciate the effort though ...

[qesehmk]

I agree w you.

The sudden jump could be result of demand destruction or HR3012 or both. Honestly I just don't have visibility what is more true.

The next 485 inventory will tell us what is what. My gut feel is that this is a combination of both plus a third factor that building pipeline only for one year never made any sense to me. I would at least have 18 months of pipeline. So its possible that that's what he is doing.

For all the talk about demand destruction - i would be really surprised if people who had to abandon their GC process AFTER labor approval are 20% or more relative to GC.

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

[geevikram]

Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik

[qesehmk]

Teddy - even I envy your ability to source and analyze information in very balanced manner & Spec's ability to crunch numbers and analyze legal jargon and then convey it in a simple manner! Glad to see folks getting current. Even getting EAD will be a big relief.

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.

Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers.

[imdeng]

I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.

[Spectator]

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.

imdeng,

That's correct. Demand Destruction for PD2007 only takes into account those who could not have filed in 2007.

[Pdmar08]

Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

You are right, i have not filed yet, my lawyers are still waking up and my company cuts checks so i have no control. I m done long back with meds etc.

I think folks who work directly with lawyers have a greater chance of filing on first day.

SOmeone had mentione before correctly that meds and all is ok lawyers take time.

Congrats to all who are current.

It will be interesting to see how demand data chart changes in the necxt few bulletins.

This is going in the same direction of 2007 though not exactly. I have seen that time been referred to fiasco but many people especialluy EB3 got to file and got EAD that reduced some pain.

[Jonty Rhodes]

EB2I still needs HR 3012. With this kind of large movements in EB2 India and China, retrogression is inevitable and looming over. Yes, larger demand destruction seems to have influenced this huge movement to some extent. But I am certain that the dates will retrogress and will be stalled for sometime (at least for the rest of the FY2012). So, EB2I should not get too high and start flying because this movement is transitional and not permanent.

Anybody who files in EB2I today will still have a wait time of at least 4 years and that has been pretty consistent. Moreover, EB2I is completely spill-over dependent so in future, if the demand destruction is less and if the spill-over is low from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2ROW then basically EB2I backlog is going to grow for sure.

This bill still needs lot of support from EB2 and EB3 India and China.

[qesehmk]

Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?

I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

[immitime]

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

Sports, First of all congrats to you and family

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

So I strongly feel EB-2 have lesser demand and so they increased the date is it not?

See the standard explanation after the VB below.

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[imdeng]

I agree whole-heartedly Q. I believe any rational person will agree that an approved 140 should automatically result in a 485 filing and EAD. The artificial wait has no economic rationale.

There was some argument about why it makes sense for DoS/USCIS to make PD almost-current vs. making is current. Anyways - its doesn't matter. We have had good movements past few months - hopefully it continues forward full speed and hopefully HR-3012 happens and makes the plight of EB2IC/EB3IC more manageable.

Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?

[imdeng]

The current movement in EB2IC is for gathering inventory only - they are not being allotted visa numbers right now. EB3IC already has a large inventory thanks to 07/07 - so the situation does not apply there. EB3I PD will not move beyond the 1 week/month speed until HR-3012 actually becomes a law. However, once that happens, EB3I is going to fly.

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

[tometukuri]

Great News folks! Congrats to all who are current with this bulletin. I guess time to run around to get all the necessary documentation ready. I have a strong feeling the dates might retrogress in the next bulletin given this large intake.

Maybe its a timing co-incidence, but things started working out in the last 4-5 months since we started following Q's forum. Isn't it time Q started forums on various other aspects of life

[Momster]

OMG..I couldn't believe the movement when I saw the VB this morning. CO covered the rest of 2008 in one fell sweep! Congratulations to everyone who became current! This GC thing is so hard on families sometimes..I hope this brings relief to at least more than a few people.

Thanks to all the Gurus and number crunchers...you continue to bring tremendous clarity to the whole process and yes, I envy your way with numbers too (It would have really helped at my previous job).

Sportsfan, good luck to you on your move to India - it is very admirable how you are doing this for your family!

[tometukuri]

Rightly said, H.R. 3012 is the solution to EB-3. Campaign as much as possible and have folks reach out to local senators to show our strength. imdeng has a pre-done letter that can be modified/used. It just took me a minute to send out the letters.

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

[tometukuri]

Yep, all we needed at the doctor was a photocopy of the passport

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[tometukuri]

I am not sure how it works, but can't you apply for your I-485 now and travel with AP and apply for your spouse at some point

Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik