EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[vishnu]

Veni - since there is plenty of time during the PERM process (e.g. cooling off period) to gather documents, I would think I140 is submitted very soon after the PERM approval. Would also think around 90% of PERMs are approved at I-140 stage these days given I-140 scrutiny levels are on the up.

[qesehmk]

Q, Spec and other gurus...
What % of PERM approvals make it to i140 stage? Also what is the average time lag between PERM approval and i140 submittal?

Veni ... agree w Vishnu. The time to file 140 shouldn't be more than 2 months on average.

Regarding %approval, trackitt shows following - D A and % Denied
PD Year 2007 140 946 13%
Calendar Year 2010 till today - 199 2287 8%

[veni001]

Veni - since there is plenty of time during the PERM process (e.g. cooling off period) to gather documents, I would think I140 is submitted very soon after the PERM approval. Would also think around 90% of PERMs are approved at I-140 stage these days given I-140 scrutiny levels are on the up.

Veni ... agree w Vishnu. The time to file 140 shouldn't be more than 2 months on average.

Regarding %approval, trackitt shows following - D A and % Denied
PD Year 2007 140 946 13%
Calendar Year 2010 till today - 199 2287 8%

Q, Vishnu,
I agree with i140 denial rate and we are using 15% denial/rejections between No. of PERM approvals to No. of i140 approvals, for our calculations.

The above number averages about 10% rejections at i140, does this mean our assumption of certified PERMs that never make it to i140 stage is 5% or it is even less?

If our assumption is all PERMs at least make it to i140 stage( application), then i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140, am i correct?

[Spectator]

Q, Vishnu,
I agree with i140 denial rate and we are using 15% denial/rejections between No. of PERM approvals to No. of i140 approvals, for our calculations.

The above number averages about 10% rejections at i140, does this mean our assumption of certified PERMs that never make it to i140 stage is 5% or it is even less?

If our assumption is all PERMs at least make it to i140 stage( application), then i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140, am i correct?

veni,

Personally, I think 15% denial rate is too high.

EB2 has pretty objective criteria and you either meet them or you don't.

Whilst educational qualifications (3 year degree issue) might have led to a higher denial rate in the past, people (employer, employee and lawyers) are pretty educated about USCIS' view on this now.

EB1-B, which is much more subjective, has a denial rate of less than 10%.

For the other question, why would an employer go through all the time and expense to get a PERM approval and then not proceed to submit an I-140?

It is also in the employee's interest to ensure this happens, since they can't claim the PD for future applications unless the I-140 is approved.

Add to that the fact that the employee may need the approved I-140 to extend H1B beyond 6 years in 3 year increments and I think the conversion rate is going to be near enough to 100% that we can ignore the cases where an I-140 application does not follow a PERM approval.

My 2c anyway.

[veni001]

veni,

Personally, I think 15% denial rate is too high.

EB2 has pretty objective criteria and you either meet them or you don't.

Whilst educational qualifications (3 year degree issue) might have led to a higher denial rate in the past, people (employer, employee and lawyers) are pretty educated about USCIS' view on this now.

EB1-B, which is much more subjective, has a denial rate of less than 10%.

For the other question, why would an employer go through all the time and expense to get a PERM approval and then not proceed to submit an I-140?

It is also in the employee's interest to ensure this happens, since they can't claim the PD for future applications unless the I-140 is approved.

Add to that the fact that the employee may need the approved I-140 to extend H1B beyond 6 years in 3 year increments and I think the conversion rate is going to be near enough to 100% that we can ignore the cases where an I-140 application does not follow a PERM approval.

My 2c anyway.

Spec,
That perfectly make sense, which means i140 receipts (on an average)= PERM approvals +EB1 i140+EB2-NIW i140

or we can round it off to , I140 Receipts ~= PERM approvals +EB1i140 (since EB2-NIW % is very less)

P.S:I am crunching some numbers, will get back to you folks later in the day.

[pch053]

On a slightly different note, do you guys think that the # of approved EB2 I140 applicants discontinuiing their GC/I485 process in the same category is non-negligible (with probable reasons being getting approved in EB1 category, leaving US, etc). I personally know of a couple of EB2-I applicants who had approved I140's but also applied in EB1A category and have already got their I485 approvals. But, I am not sure how significant this number will be in the overall pool.

Thanks!

[gcwait2007]

On a slightly different note, do you guys think that the # of approved EB2 I140 applicants discontinuiing their GC/I485 process in the same category is non-negligible (with probable reasons being getting approved in EB1 category, leaving US, etc). I personally know of a couple of EB2-I applicants who had approved I140's but also applied in EB1A category and have already got their I485 approvals. But, I am not sure how significant this number will be in the overall pool.

Thanks!

That will be handful! in my guesstimate, EB2 to EB1 upgrades are less than 50 in number.

[veni001]

ROW PERM Certifications (FY/CY Matrix)

- PD -- FY-2007 -- FY-2008 -- FY-2009 -- FY-2010 - Q1&Q2-2011 -- CY Total
2005 ---2,318 -----186 --------21 ----------12 ---------1 ---------2,538
2006 --24,695 -----754 -------254 ----------70 ---------4 --------25,777
2007 --26,680 --14,473 -----1,661 -------1,523 --------44 --------44,381
2008 --- N/A ---13,895 ----14,059 ------ 6,574 -----2,451 --------36,979
2009 --- N/A ----- N/A ---------8 ------21,199 -------737 --------21,944
2010 --- N/A ----- N/A -------N/A -------7,877 -----9,232 --------17,109
2011 --- N/A ----- N/A -------N/A -------N/A -------2,811 --------14,387
Total -53,693 --29,308 ----16,003 ------37,255 ----15,280

Columns show FY PERM approvals, rows show PD by CY.

As we can see ROW filings as well as certifications peaked in 2007 and saw bottom in 2009. Since we only have Q1&Q2 FY2011 data, not sure how many more ROW PD 2010 are pending at DOL as of Dec 2010.

[qesehmk]

Veni

Excellent work. Now this is where trackitt is extremely useful. Here are some findings from trackitt relative to ROW pending/approved ratio. These are very rough calculations .... so don't jump on me :-)


2009 - 20%.
2010 - 20%
2011 YTD - 50%
2011 YoY volume for NEW PERM cases - 10% down.

So this is how many all ROW PERM cases stand today (based on above findings and the data you provided).
2009 = 5000
2010 = 3000
2011 = 16000
---------------

So total additional ROW PERM cases that DoL can process if they want to = 24000
Add the 8000 they already have by now. So total = 32000.

Of this assume 50% is EB2 (spec teddy and others check this assumption in particular) = 16000
This translates to approx 35K.

So if DoL wants to ... they can actually go ahead and process enough ROW PERMs to utilize all of EB2 ROW quota this year itself.

If this happens, then EB2IC is at the mercy of EB1 and EB5 and the dates would range between Sep 06 and Dec 06.

However the more likely scenario is that PERM approvals could be in the neighborhood of 30K...and then not all of them (i mean whoever from EB2 catgory) will be able to file and get a number this year itself. So EB2 ROW should give about 8K and EB2IC should be around Feb-Apr 2007.

ROW PERM Certifications (FY/CY Matrix)

- PD -- FY-2007 -- FY-2008 -- FY-2009 -- FY-2010 -- Q1-2011 -- CY Total
2005 ---2,318 -----186 --------21 ----------12 ------1 ---------2,538
2006 --24,695 -----754 -------254 ----------70 ------1 --------25,774
2007 --26,680 --14,473 -----1,661 -------1,523 -----21 --------44,358
2008 --- N/A ---13,895 ----14,059 ------ 6,574 --1,421 --------35,949
2009 --- N/A ----- N/A ---------8 ------21,199 -----98 --------21,305
2010 --- N/A ----- N/A -------N/A -------7,877 --6,510 --------14,387
Total -53,693 ---29,308 ---16,003 ------37,255 --8,052

Columns show FY PERM approvals, rows show PD by CY.

As we can see ROW filings as well as certifications peaked in 2007 and saw bottom in 2009. Since we only have Q1 FY2011 data, not sure how many more ROW PD 2010 are pending at DOL as of Dec 2010.

[vishnu]

Veni / Q - excellent work guys! I would say that given this statement in the last visa bulletin : "Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences", it is safe to assume ROW will provide spillover to EB2 IC. So 8-19k sounds v reasonable.

[TeddyKoochu]

@veni /spec- Great work and thanks for the compilation.

@q - "2011 YoY volume for NEW PERM cases - 10% down." this trend bears quite a close correlation to Trackitt where the current ratio between 2011 and 2010 is 86% but its accelerating fast (Refer analysis from Spec). Now the idea of classifying perms as 50% EB2 and the rest of the 50% as ROW is actually a big assumption this is where I would say Trackitt percentage reduction works more simplistically especially for EB2 ROW. @spec I noticed that the data for Mexico and Philippines on Trackitt even though very low kind of correlates well with EB2 Row in general. By 86% we would arrive at ~ 11K SOFAD from EB2 ROW something quite similar to last year. There are a few things to note even though perm is faster now the I140 approvals are taking 8 months now this will help us however a note of caution about Trackitt they have started a paid section on the website for data analytics and many people are not enthused by this, this in fact will cause people not to enter their case details so Trackitt will not be reliable further down.

[Spectator]

Just some questions about the analysis.

There is a statement:

2011 YoY volume for NEW PERM cases - 10% down

That doesn't seem to be the case on a purely YOY comparison. Here are the comparative numbers for FY2010 Q1 and FY2011 Q1.

Country/Group – FY2010 Q1 – FY2011 Q1 - % Change
MEXICO------------ 563 ------- 710 ------ 26.11%
PHILIPPINES------- 578 ------- 746 ------ 29.07%
ROW------------- 5,363 ----- 6,596 ------ 22.99%
Grand Total ---- 6,504 ----- 8,052 ------ 23.80%

I've been holding off to see the FY2011 Q2 figures, because I wanted to see if there was a similar pattern to last year. The table below shows the approvals by FY quarter.

DOS NAME ----- FY.Qtr - No. ----- %
MEXICO --------- Q1 ---- 563 -- 17.03%
---------------- Q2 -- 1,081 -- 32.70%
---------------- Q3 ---- 999 -- 30.22%
---------------- Q4 ---- 663 -- 20.05%
MEXICO Total --------- 3,306 - 100.00%

PHILIPPINES ---- Q1 ---- 578 -- 17.49%
---------------- Q2 -- 1,184 -- 35.82%
---------------- Q3 ---- 934 -- 28.26%
---------------- Q4 ---- 609 -- 18.43%
PHILIPPINES Total ---- 3,305 - 100.00%

ROW ------------ Q1 -- 5,363 -- 17.50%
---------------- Q2 - 11,074 -- 36.14%
---------------- Q3 -- 8,612 -- 28.10%
---------------- Q4 -- 5,595 -- 18.26%
ROW Total ----------- 30,644 - 100.00%

ROW-M-P
Q1 ------------------- 6,504 -- 17.46%
Q2 ------------------ 13,339 -- 35.80%
Q3 ------------------ 10,545 -- 28.30%
Q4 ------------------- 6,867 -- 18.43%
Grand Total --------- 37,255

As you can see from the table above, Q1 had the lowest % of PERM approvals, with a substantial increase in Q2 and Q3.

Changing factors may mean that doesn't happen, but it would be nice to have some confirmation of that.

I think PERM approvals from FY2011 Q2 would also stand a fair chance of being approved for EB2-ROW-M-P who file concurrent I-140/I-485 applications.

As usual, I am pretty cautious.

[qesehmk]

Spec

You seem to have missed 2 things:

1. I used CY data from trackitt.
2. I used filings as opposed to approvals. (the 10% down statement..)

And finally mind you ... those are back of the napkin calculations... to get our heads around the significant of what veni produced.

Now commenting on what you wrote below .. I would watch not just YoY increase or decrease ... but where the increase is coming from. e.g. in this case ... if 2010 Q1 had an artificial low rate of approval followed by surge ... that in itself makes in YoY increase in Q1 of 2011 not so worrisome. Right?

Just some questions about the analysis.

[veni001]

Veni

Excellent work. Now this is where trackitt is extremely useful. Here are some findings from trackitt relative to ROW pending/approved ratio. These are very rough calculations .... so don't jump on me :-)


2009 - 20%.
2010 - 20%
2011 YTD - 50%
2011 YoY volume for NEW PERM cases - 10% down.

So this is how many all ROW PERM cases stand today (based on above findings and the data you provided).
2009 = 5000
2010 = 3000
2011 = 16000
---------------

So total additional ROW PERM cases that DoL can process if they want to = 24000
Add the 8000 they already have by now. So total = 32000.

Of this assume 50% is EB2 (spec teddy and others check this assumption in particular) = 16000
This translates to approx 35K.

So if DoL wants to ... they can actually go ahead and process enough ROW PERMs to utilize all of EB2 ROW quota this year itself.

If this happens, then EB2IC is at the mercy of EB1 and EB5 and the dates would range between Sep 06 and Dec 06.

However the more likely scenario is that PERM approvals could be in the neighborhood of 30K...and then not all of them (i mean whoever from EB2 catgory) will be able to file and get a number this year itself. So EB2 ROW should give about 8K and EB2IC should be around Feb-Apr 2007.

Q,
This should be higher percentage! i am tryung to get monthly breakdown to figureout EB1 case, we know that they are decreased by 60-70%, which resulted in higher EB2%

Veni / Q - excellent work guys! I would say that given this statement in the last visa bulletin : "Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences", it is safe to assume ROW will provide spillover to EB2 IC. So 8-19k sounds v reasonable.

Vishnu,
I am getting little un easy looking at ROW PERM, i will throw some numbers for discussion later in the day.

@veni /spec- Great work and thanks for the compilation.

@q - "2011 YoY volume for NEW PERM cases - 10% down." this trend bears quite a close correlation to Trackitt where the current ratio between 2011 and 2010 is 86% but its accelerating fast (Refer analysis from Spec). Now the idea of classifying perms as 50% EB2 and the rest of the 50% as ROW is actually a big assumption this is where I would say Trackitt percentage reduction works more simplistically especially for EB2 ROW. @spec I noticed that the data for Mexico and Philippines on Trackitt even though very low kind of correlates well with EB2 Row in general. By 86% we would arrive at ~ 11K SOFAD from EB2 ROW something quite similar to last year. There are a few things to note even though perm is faster now the I140 approvals are taking 8 months now this will help us however a note of caution about Trackitt they have started a paid section on the website for data analytics and many people are not enthused by this, this in fact will cause people not to enter their case details so Trackitt will not be reliable further down.

Teddy,
I agree.

Please see my comments above, will be back with numbers.

[Spectator]

Spec

You seem to have missed 2 things:

1. I used CY data from trackitt.
2. I used filings as opposed to approvals. (the 10% down statement..)

And finally mind you ... those are back of the napkin calculations... to get our heads around the significant of what veni produced.

Now commenting on what you wrote below .. I would watch not just YoY increase or decrease ... but where the increase is coming from. e.g. in this case ... if 2010 Q1 had an artificial low rate of approval followed by surge ... that in itself makes in YoY increase in Q1 of 2011 not so worrisome. Right?

Q,

Thanks for the reply. You made it clear they were "back of the envelope" calcs.

It is getting quite difficult to keep up with the different time scales used, so apologies for not reading carefully enough.

Not worrisome if the surge is not repeated! There is a big IF in that statement. Do we know whether Q1 2010 was low?

The same Low, High, High, Low pattern was also seen in FY2009 for Q1-Q4. Q1 FY2010 was very big compared to Q4 FY2009.

I am not criticizing, or disagreeing for that matter, just emphasizing why I am so keen to see the Q2 2011 PERM figures!

I do think it will work out - I just want confirmation.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I do not know whether 2010 Q1 was low. I said it looking at Veni's approval table. If you look at it ... you can clear see the years when PERM backlog accumulated and years when it was cleared.

To be honest ... USCIS and other agencies have the means to execute any policy that they want. So I wouldn't double guess ROW's ability to fully utilize its quota this year too. Lucky us ... EB1 and EB5 are there to help!

p.s. - To be honest ... this whole calculations based predictions is something we started last year ... but I think we are taking it a bit too far. Sometimes it is best to sit back and let new data come out before we change our thinking!

Q,

Thanks for the reply. You made it clear they were "back of the envelope" calcs.

It is getting quite difficult to keep up with the different time scales used, so apologies for not reading carefully enough.

Not worrisome if the surge is not repeated! There is a big IF in that statement. Do we know whether Q1 2010 was low?

The same Low, High, High, Low pattern was also seen in FY2009 for Q1-Q4. Q1 FY2010 was very big compared to Q4 FY2009.

I am not criticizing, or disagreeing for that matter, just emphasizing why I am so keen to see the Q2 2011 PERM figures!

I do think it will work out - I just want confirmation.

[kd2008]

ROW PERM Certifications (FY/CY Matrix)

- PD -- FY-2007 -- FY-2008 -- FY-2009 -- FY-2010 -- Q1-2011 -- CY Total
2005 ---2,318 -----186 --------21 ----------12 ------1 ---------2,538
2006 --24,695 -----754 -------254 ----------70 ------1 --------25,774
2007 --26,680 --14,473 -----1,661 -------1,523 -----21 --------44,358
2008 --- N/A ---13,895 ----14,059 ------ 6,574 --1,421 --------35,949
2009 --- N/A ----- N/A ---------8 ------21,199 -----98 --------21,305
2010 --- N/A ----- N/A -------N/A -------7,877 --6,510 --------14,387
Total -53,693 ---29,308 ---16,003 ------37,255 --8,052

Columns show FY PERM approvals, rows show PD by CY.

As we can see ROW filings as well as certifications peaked in 2007 and saw bottom in 2009. Since we only have Q1 FY2011 data, not sure how many more ROW PD 2010 are pending at DOL as of Dec 2010.

Veni,

The above table is simply amazing. I have a favor to ask of you. Could you please build similar table each for India and China? If its already been done could you please let me know the link?

Thanks!

[veni001]

Veni,

The above table is simply amazing. I have a favor to ask of you. Could you please build similar table each for India and China? If its already been done could you please let me know the link?

Thanks!

Kd2008,
Yes, It is coming later in the day.

[kd2008]

Kd2008,
Yes, It is coming later in the day.

Awesome! Also Q2 2011 PERM data is now available here:

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

It would be super great if you are able to include it too.

[veni001]

Q,Spec,Teddy and others
Below is the monthly approval breakdown of PERM certifications & i140 receipts for FY 2009, FY 2010 and Q1&Q2-2011, I am trying to sort out the EB1 & ROW EB2 scenario

- Month -- ROW(2&3) ---EBI(2&3) ---EBC(2&3) --Monthly Total-- i140 Receipts
Oct-08 ------897 --------649 ---------156 ---------1,702 -------3,140(Estimated)
Nov-08 ------508 --------481 ----------83 ---------1,072 -------3,140(Estimated)
Dec-08 ------194 ---------87 ----------13 -----------294 -------4,161
Jan-09 ----1,724 ----- 1,104 ---------246 ---------3,074 -------3,140
Feb-09 ----1,115 --------719 ---------164 ---------1,998 -------3,464
Mar-09 ----2,267 ------1,425 ---------272 ---------3,964 -------4,266
Apr-09-- --4,616 ------3,012 ---------559 ---------8,187 -------4,505
May-09 ----2,326 ------1,595 ---------312 ---------4,233 -------5,840
Jun-09-----1,012 ------1,249 ---------133 ---------2,394 -------6,827
Jul-09 -------21 ----------4 -----------4 ------------29 -------5,877
Aug-09 ------248 --------213 ----------37 -----------498 -------4,505
Sep-09 ----1,075 --------849 ---------133 ---------2,057 -------4,129
Total ----16,003 -----11,387 -------2,112 --------29,502 ------52,994

Oct-09 ----2,041 ------1,519 ---------264 ---------3,824 -------4,566
Nov-09 ----1,970 ------1,371 ---------237 ---------3,578 -------3,901
Dec-09 ----2,493 ------1,640 ---------263 ---------4,396 -------4,377
Jan-10 ----3,279 ------2,216 ---------308 ---------5,803 -------4,108
Feb-10 ----4,464 ------2,540 ---------499 ---------7,503 -------4,969
Mar-10 ----5,596 ------3,683 ---------571 ---------9,850 -------7,526
Apr-10 ----2,744 ------2,096 ---------264 ---------5,104 -------7,762
May-10 ----4,455 ------3,706 ---------486 ---------8,647 -------7,795
Jun-10 ----3,346 ------2,707 ---------365 ---------6,418 -------8,699
Jul-10 ----2,913 ------3,235 ---------336 ---------6,484 -------7,130
Aug-10 ----2,198 ------2,558 ---------287 ---------5,043 -------8,766
Sep-10 ----1,756 ------1,659 ---------172 ---------3,587 -------7,721
Total ----37,255 -----28,930 -------4,052 --------70,237 ------77,280

Oct-10 ----1,940 ------2,136 ---------231 ---------4,307 -------7,442
Nov-10 ----2,796 ------3,045 ---------350 ---------6,191 -------7,839
Dec-10 ----3,316 ------4,118 ---------423 ---------7,857 -------5,161
Jan-11 ----2,761 ------3,333 ---------447 ---------6,541 -------6,056
Feb-11 ----2,546 ------3,268 ---------383 ---------6,197 -------6,859
Mar-11 ----1,921 ------1,954 ---------279 ---------4,154 -------6,672(Estimated)
Total ----15,280 -----17,854 -------2,113 --------35,274 ------40,029

NOTE: Since i do not have data for Oct08-Nov08 & Mar11 i140 receipts, i extrapolated the data. Also PERM certification to i140 receipt there will be time lag but we are only
taking the rolling window so the numbers before and the numbers after will cancel the effect. And also I140 Receipts ~= PERM approvals +EB1i140 (since EB2-NIW % is very less)


From FY 2009 data EB1 i140 Receipts = 52,994 - 29,502 = 23,494 (FY 2009 EB1485 approvals = 40,979, translates to 18,627 EB1-i140)
Considering higher EB1-i140 denial rate(~15-20%?) the numbers almost match for FY2009

From FY 2010 data EB1 i140 Receipts = 77,280 - 70,237 = 7,043 (FY 2010 EB1485 approvals = 41,026, translates to 18,648 EB1-i140)

This translates to 70% drop in EB1(i140) applications from 2009 to 2010.

From FY 2011(Q1+Q2) data EB1 i140 Receipts = 40,029 - 35,274 = 4,755 - This translates to 60% drop in EB1 compared to 2009

and we can see huge jump in PERM cases all across the board, averaging about 6k per-month from Q1&Q2 2011 !

But the question i am not finding answer is,
If EB1 (i140)dropped by 70% from FY 2009 to FY 2010 then how come EB1 i485 approvals in 2010 are higher than in 2009?


FY 2010:
ROW,M&P EB2(i485) approvals = 27,406 ( = 12,520 (i140/PERM certifications))
ROW,M&P PERM certifications = 37,255
Subtracting EB2 PERM approvals(=i140) from the total leaves us with(=ROW EB3?)=24,735 ,if this is correct means ROW,M&P EB2 = 33% of ROW,M&P PERM approvals?

[kd2008]

Veni,

It simply shows how unreliable USCIS data really is! :-)

[veni001]

kd2008,
Looks its not ready down load yet!
I can incorporate it to my table once i am able to download.
Thanks

[veni001]

Kd2008,

Let's see what the experts to say!

[qesehmk]

Veni

Once again good job. Your other format was great. Is it possible to keep it same and incorporate Q2 labor data?

Regarding your question below ... I ahve the same question. Teh answer it seems is ... that receipt of I-140 and approval of 485 are time lagged. So although 2010 saw less receipts ... it could still be hit with 2009 unadjudicated 485s.

p.s. - a Minor correction / question. Wouldn't EB4-5 also file I-140? So the difference is really EB1-4-5. Right?

But the question i am not finding answer is,
If EB1 (i140)dropped by 70% from FY 2009 to FY 2010 then how come EB1 i485 approvals in 2010 are higher than in 2009?

[kd2008]

For EB-5 and 4 there is no I-140 filing. EB-5 does I-536 and EB-4 does I-360.