EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[imdeng]

Okay - so we have our official confirmation that Demand Destruction is real and significant. How much - we don't know and we will not know for quite some time. It has to be quite severe for dates to move more than 6 months in one shot. Considering most EB2Is send their 485s to reach on 1st/2nd day itself, this can not be a case of delay from applicants' side.

Could it be that CO is building inventory in anticipation of HR-3012 but since he can't say that on the VB (it is not a law yet, he is only supposed to follow the existing law), he is using the excuse of DD as a fig leaf. Not saying DD is not real - just that it serves as a good excuse as well.

True to his form, he has a "possibly beyond" comment that is going to keep all 2009 PD people like me up at night the whole holiday season!

[essenel]

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

[qblogfan]

Dear Friends,

congratulations to you! we chinese and indians have been waiting for too long and we deserve this significant movement on PD!

Just as what I said before, they should have admitted at least half of the waiting people in this FY. I believe these hard working people deserve AP/EAD! Mr.CO should have moved the PD to 2009 in this summer, but he was over conservative and kept the door closed for too long!

although I am still stuck into the trouble of 485 with my evil employer, I am so glad to see this significant movement.

dear brothers and sisters, wish you a happy Christimas!

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

[PlainSpeak]

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

[nishant2200]

I did not know this! Our company's law firm usually sends the applications on the 1st if the applicant has all of his/her documents. If that's true, then maybe the USCIS will report all of the receipts of December folks by the 1st week of January and it will perhaps prompt the DOS to stop the movement? Is that what you are implying?

No I am not, these numbers would at the most gut idea be only 20% of filings.

[essenel]

I understand your pain EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....

Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

[PlainSpeak]

I understand your pain EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....

The keyword here is IF and with grassleys hold the chances have reduced to insignificant. So what is the basis of any expectation ....

[Feb262009]

Wow. I am so glad. I am so close, still too far. My pd is Feb 26 2009.


Congrats everyone who got pleasant surprise! This is really worthy of holiday celebration.

Gurus, is there any hope for me next bulletin? If yes, it will make my spouse live with us as the h1b is going to max out.

For Feb bulletin, CO and USCIS may not have complete numbers as they may not be able to count all receipts. I guess they will move again? But how far? Any thoughts?

This means a lot to my family.

[punjabi]

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

Thanks leo4ever
On a side note my PD is Nov 17 ,2008 & I applied through consular process . I havent got fee notice from NVC. So this movement is totally unexpected. Any idea if I need to do anything .Thanks to Q and all the gurus

[Pedro Gonzales]

Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/568...mmigrants-act/

[veni001]

I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

[Spectator]

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

42.5k - 08-Jul-08 -- 01-Sep-08 -- 15-Nov-08 -- 01-Feb-09 -- 15-Apr-09

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

[qesehmk]

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

[kripton99]

No Kripton - as remember EB3 I dates are only at 2002 but they have plenty of i-485s already in the system upto 2007 (during the fiasco).

Oops.. missed that point.. Thanks Vishnu, for the clarification

[bieber]

I'm in

Congrats to others who is going to be current

I hope they will make another such move and Kanmani gets in next month

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

Veni, I agree with you, the ratio of 1 in fact has 38% demand destruction baked into it, so definitely it will be interesting to watch the next VB. I think your idea of a 2 Year inventory also seems to be plausible because essentially EAD / AP are valid for 2 years. Now since they have officially stated demand destruction they have probably got lesser than what they expected for sure but how much or how many less we will know by the inventory there seems to be truth on both sides. I still believe as Q said this bulletin is about the sentiment around HR 3012 in some way, they are trying to have sufficient numbers just in case. The point at 01-JAN-2009 corresponds to ~ 40 - 45K.

[codesmith]

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

[grnwtg]

Congrats to all of those who are current. This is amazing, and past few months i was definetly expecting bulletin to go past april'08, but 2009 is good for many who could not visit India on H1B. Hopefully many of us should get their GC by End of August'2012.
Hopefully QBlogFan will sort out his issues and get his Green card( he too strongly predicted dates to go beyond April'2008 with buffer factor)
I guess factors what i have been talking previously here might be really True.

Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/568...mmigrants-act/

[PlainSpeak]

Plainspeak

I have a strong belief that HR3012 will make it as soon as possible.

And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

[ChampU]

Many congrats to all fellow GCSeekers who are current..

[imdeng]

Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

[suninphx]

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

Spec,

I just envy your ability with numbers. As always thank you very much! This table helps to bring things in perspective.

[immitime]

And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.

[PlainSpeak]

I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.

I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.