EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[qesehmk]

Good to hear from many of you - esp teddy spec veni nishant. It's been a while we have been silent

[qesehmk]

My god! This is terrific news for so many people waiting to file 485 for sooooooo looooong.

EB2 I - Jan 1 2009 (officially confirmed )

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5630.html

[venkat]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[ontheedge]

The official bulletin is out - 1/1/09

[imdeng]

Spec - you are a gem - I am sure there are hundreds who value your opinion and analysis for every one who only raises questions. We all understand that we are working with limited data and uncertain decision making by CO. Predictions deal with making sense of the available data, of course that does not cover the entire variance - but that is to be expected. Thank you for all your work, help and support.

I think some members don't appreciate the uncertainty of the calculations at the moment (maybe they don't have the intellectual capacity) and can only criticize, even though it has been spelt out time after time. There is one in particular who does nothing but that on several forums.

[saky007]

There definetly seems to be a lot of demand destruction ! Below is the relavant note in the VB.

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

[vishnu]

clear demand destruction baby!!! perm conversations to 485 clearly less than we calculated...

[kd2008]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

Teddy, remember I had been optimistic and suggested aggressive demand destruction? Seems to be true. I guess next month's I-485 inventory will shed light on the actual numbers. Who knows tomorrow USCIS will turn around and say they did not count the numbers right - they did it last year!

[TheTexan]

Woooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhooooooooooooo Congrats to all those who are current :-)

[saky007]

This is so exciting. It has not sunk in yet. After waiting for so long, finally current. Can't wait for all the freedom that comes with EAD and AP. I am sure there are tons of other members who share the same feeling.

Congrats to everyone who is current !

[essenel]

From the bulletin:

"The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit. "

Congrats to all those who are current!!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, remember I had been optimistic and suggested aggressive demand destruction? Seems to be true. I guess next month's I-485 inventory will shed light on the actual numbers. Who knows tomorrow USCIS will turn around and say they did not count the numbers right - they did it last year!

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

[nayekal]

Congratulations to those who became current. I believe, most of the new filers will be able to enjoy the benefits of EAD / AP, if not getting GC immediately. I heard from some of my friends that their consulting companies (desi) are not showing any enthusiasm in getting the AOS apps filed immediately as it doesn't benefit them in long run. Show patience with your employers and get the things done, if you guys have to bend your heads.

I also feel sorry for those, who actually left US during last 3 years, who otherwise would have applied if they were in US.

[TheTexan]

sportsfan33 - buy a lottery today :-)

[immitime]

Congrats to all who are current, and expecting HR 3012 to become Law and we can expect the same happiness and cheer from EB-3 folks.

Praying for all.

[asankaran]

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

[mesan123]

GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

[kd2008]

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

Oh absolutely! This just shows how crucial is EAD to folks and how difficult it has become to stay on H1B - especially when we are going through a recession.

[zenmaster]

Congratulations to all those are current !!!!!
This is just awesome...
So many people will not have to deal with that BS stamping issues.....

[pdfeb09]

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

Please make it beyond Feb, please make it beyond Feb ...

[leo4ever]

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

[nishant2200]

GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

[leo4ever]

Ho hoooooo, congrats who are current and thanks all. I am still in a phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

Yes kanmani, I would wait for the official word. It is surreal though.

I wish they would just move it to 1st Jan. 2010 knowing how light the year 2009 was. All of 2009 folks have now waited close to 3 years and should get a chance to file. Perhaps our Gurus can have a word with Mr. Oppenheimer :-)

EDIT: BTW, I don't want to gloat, but I cposted the "2 year demand" theory on trackitt about a month ago (even before the December bulletin came out) with the observation that EADs are given for 2 years. I think that's what we are seeing here - a demand buildup that will result in green cards through the end of FY 2013. I believe we will see a movement in the February bulletin too.

[PlainSpeak]

Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

[pdmay2008]

Congratulations every one who became current. Final day my day has come.

Thanks for every one who supported us and for their valid inputs with the numbers.

As I said yesterday. VB got released in Mumbai consulate before USA release and before Demand Data release. This is the only prediction from me that became true. I have never been able to read CO mind and no one will ever be.

Good luck every one.