EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[vishnu]

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

[veni001]

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

[Spectator]

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

Q,

Thanks for turning the calculations into an easy to understand summary.

For IC combined, the average appears to increase from 2.1k per month to 3.1k per month over Jan-Jul 2007.

As has been noted, this is lowest in Jan (2.3k) to highest in July (5.7k), so we might theoretically reach March 2007 with 37k SOFAD.

Since DOS probably won't see this extra demand, because of the processing time for new applications, they would have to consider pushing the Cut Off Dates beyond that date to include enough applications that can be adjudicated before the end of September.

Moving into FY2012, DOS would then have to consider whether to retrogress the Cut Off Dates as USCIS report demand to them.

Is that a fair statement?

[Spectator]

vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

Veni,

The PERM disclosure data is indeed for the FY October to September. That is for the date of adjudication (Certified, Denied, Withdrawn).

However, Priority Dates (extracted from the Case No.) are Calendar Year (Jan-Dec).

So the approval period may be different, but the PD doesn't change. The dates in the Demand Data and, more importantly, in the Visa Bulletin are CY.

I still probably haven't explained that very well.

Regards

[veni001]

veni - thanks for the number crunching. But is it 17.4k perm certifications after July 2007 for the FY 2007 OR for the calendar year 2007. If it is for the latter, wouldn't be too concerned as we would be double counting some certifications from FY 08 (which has shown reduced EB2 IC perm anyway). If it is the former, then it is a REAL headwind to movement.

vishnu,
I am taking it as FY, assuming PERM disclosure data represents federal fiscal year, unless other gurus tell otherwise.

vishnu,
It is CY not FY, Spec corrected me on this.

[veni001]

Veni,

The PERM disclosure data is indeed for the FY October to September. That is for the date of adjudication (Certified, Denied, Withdrawn).

However, Priority Dates (extracted from the Case No.) are Calendar Year (Jan-Dec).

So the approval period may be different, but the PD doesn't change. The dates in the Demand Data and, more importantly, in the Visa Bulletin are CY.

I still probably haven't explained that very well.

Regards

Spec,
Thanks for clarifying, i will make changes to my posts above.
Oct-06---Spet 07 will now become Jan 07 to Dec 07.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Yes. Agree. USCIS may choose to move dates a bit ahead to have enough applications. So yes the date could actually by Mar or even April.

I also think that if dates start pushing towards July 2007 then there is a strong possibility they might actually make the category current for a month and then pull it back. But of course there is a huge difference between Mar and Jul 07!

Q,

Thanks for turning the calculations into an easy to understand summary.

For IC combined, the average appears to increase from 2.1k per month to 3.1k per month over Jan-Jul 2007.

As has been noted, this is lowest in Jan (2.3k) to highest in July (5.7k), so we might theoretically reach March 2007 with 37k SOFAD.

Since DOS probably won't see this extra demand, because of the processing time for new applications, they would have to consider pushing the Cut Off Dates beyond that date to include enough applications that can be adjudicated before the end of September.

Moving into FY2012, DOS would then have to consider whether to retrogress the Cut Off Dates as USCIS report demand to them.

Is that a fair statement?

[veni001]

Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

Veni,

Good work.

I don't know why, but I agree with the bottom line figures whilst the monthly breakdown is slightly different.

It is only a few applications either way, so it doesn't matter.

Here is my China table for reference:

CHINA

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 12 ------- 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82% ---- 2.54%
Feb-07 --- 25 ------- 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 38 --- 1.16% ---- 3.57%
Mar-07 --- 49 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 63 --- 1.92% ---- 5.92%
Apr-07 -- 143 ------ 15 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 160 --- 4.87% --- 15.04%
May-07 -- 144 ------ 23 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 178 --- 5.42% --- 16.73%
Jun-07 -- 156 ------ 59 ----- 15 ------ 1 ---- 231 --- 7.03% --- 21.71%
Jul-07 -- 236 ----- 101 ----- 28 ------ 2 ---- 367 -- 11.18% --- 34.49%
Aug-07 -- 202 ----- 238 ----- 36 ----- 15 ---- 491 -- 14.95%
Sep-07 --- 24 ----- 322 ----- 53 ----- 23 ---- 422 -- 12.85%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 432 ------ 4 ----- 53 ---- 489 -- 14.89%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 303 ------ 7 ----- 56 ---- 366 -- 11.14%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

It just bugs the hell out of me that we don't agree exactly. That is my problem, not yours!

PS I used Courier New font because it is non-proportional and the figures therefore line up correctly.

I am having some difficulty these days with formatting posts in different fonts. I used to be able to highlight the text and apply it in the forum editing window. I suspect it has to do with moving to IE9, but even using IE8 mode doesn't fix it. I have to format outside the forum and then paste it in - it's a pain.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q,
Since we saw about 60% decrease in overall EB1 filings, not sure if we can assume at least 50% of the EBI PERMs are for those EB1s now filing in EB2? this will be a big factor when comes to porting calculations?



Teddy,
My median salary comparison is only from EBI PERMs, if most of these ERMs from FY2011 are new (otherwise filed in EB1 cases), i don't think we will have very many porting cases from Q1 FY2011 data?

Veni EB1 as such does not require perm. However with the way things are I believe most attorneys may already be advising ROW folks to file in EB2. However since the difference between EB2 and EB1 salaries may not be that much in most cases it will be hard to figure out from the perm data as to how many ROW folks are now trying for EB2. As for the retrogressed countries if EB1 is possible its always worth the try.

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
- Traditionally also people who apply for EB1 A & B also have been filing a EB2 or EB2 NIW application just in case. That may be true for some. However wouldnt employers be averse to filing both - especially when EB2 is so difficult given all the perm requirements?

For those from ROW EB1 is faster because of no labor requirement - EB1 doesn't have any labor for all countries. So didnt understand ....

- On another side the salaries in research are not eye poppingly high - True and not true. Typically the salaries would be 20-30K higher. Depending on the industry they could be higher or lower than this range. However one more thing that needs to be considered is that the EB1 salaries we are talking here is a subset of the overall research salaries ... so while overall EB1 salaries may not be that eye poppingly high, the EB1 here could actually be. e.g. even for H1 or EB2 a company has to prove that they are paying equivalent or more money to the candidate BECAUSE there are fewer people who could do this job. Similarly for EB1 (except there is no labor.... but the pay philosophy applies). Think this way.... why would a US company hire somebody and go through filing GC unless the person isn't in top 5% of the similar pool. And if so ... wouldn't you expect teh salary to be at least 10-20% higher?


So while it maybe true that folks from ROW maybe tending to EB2 for safety from the perm data it is not possible to decipher or quantify this but surely this is happening as getting EB1 approvals after the Kazarian memo is tougher. I think this certainly makes sense.

Q here we are talking about EB1 A & B most of then are either PhD holders or superspecialised doctors. Getting a EB2 perm or I140 for them is like a piece of cake. I agree with your point that companies would not be very open to file 2 applications however the split between Eb1 A and B is 50-50 and EB1A is a self filed application typically most EB1-A folks file another EB2 application through their employer or EB2-NIW on their own. You may remember kondur_007. Some organizations also reimburse a fixed amount and give people to chose their own attorney, this is typically the case in academia. Salaries could be a function of many things like location, demand etc in the current time the core engineering research jobs are not too many and they are mostly in Tier B or C locations not in the hot and costly cities this is why the salaries become comparable, for people in niche high end and in demand skills sky is the limit. For people in academia the salaries are moderate they do not really compare with the industry

If we look at Trackitt EB1 data this year the fall is drastic for EB1 A and significant for EB1 B which we can truely attribute to the Kazarian memo. However since for Eb1 really no way of estimation has proven good we should be using the 12K as the minimum from all the reports.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

[veni001]

Veni EB1 as such does not require perm. However with the way things are I believe most attorneys may already be advising ROW folks to file in EB2. However since the difference between EB2 and EB1 salaries may not be that much in most cases it will be hard to figure out from the perm data as to how many ROW folks are now trying for EB2. As for the retrogressed countries if EB1 is possible its always worth the try.
......................
.......................
.

Teddy,
Yes, we are all in agreement with this now.

[veni001]

Veni,

Good work.

I don't know why, but I agree with the bottom line figures whilst the monthly breakdown is slightly different.

It is only a few applications either way, so it doesn't matter.

Here is my China table for reference:

CHINA

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % 2007 - % Jan-Jul
Jan-07 --- 12 ------- 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82% ---- 2.54%
Feb-07 --- 25 ------- 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 38 --- 1.16% ---- 3.57%
Mar-07 --- 49 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 63 --- 1.92% ---- 5.92%
Apr-07 -- 143 ------ 15 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 160 --- 4.87% --- 15.04%
May-07 -- 144 ------ 23 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 178 --- 5.42% --- 16.73%
Jun-07 -- 156 ------ 59 ----- 15 ------ 1 ---- 231 --- 7.03% --- 21.71%
Jul-07 -- 236 ----- 101 ----- 28 ------ 2 ---- 367 -- 11.18% --- 34.49%
Aug-07 -- 202 ----- 238 ----- 36 ----- 15 ---- 491 -- 14.95%
Sep-07 --- 24 ----- 322 ----- 53 ----- 23 ---- 422 -- 12.85%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 432 ------ 4 ----- 53 ---- 489 -- 14.89%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 303 ------ 7 ----- 56 ---- 366 -- 11.14%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00% -- 100.00%

It just bugs the hell out of me that we don't agree exactly. That is my problem, not yours!

PS I used Courier New font because it is non-proportional and the figures therefore line up correctly.

I am having some difficulty these days with formatting posts in different fonts. I used to be able to highlight the text and apply it in the forum editing window. I suspect it has to do with moving to IE9, but even using IE8 mode doesn't fix it. I have to format outside the forum and then paste it in - it's a pain.

I am doing the same now.

Spec,
Not huge difference in the monthly distributions, so we are OK!

[veni001]

Q, Spec, Teddy and others..

Here is my table for Jan-Dec 2007 PD fro CHINA based on PERM certifications from AUG 2007 to SEPT FY2010.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 -- Total -- % --
Jan-07 --- 12 ------ 7 ------ 8 ------ 0 ----- 27 --- 0.82%
Feb-07 --- 26 ------ 8 ------ 5 ------ 0 ----- 39 --- 1.19%
Mar-07 --- 48 ------ 10 ------ 3 ------ 1 ----- 62 --- 1.89%
Apr-07 -- 158 ------ 20 ------ 1 ------ 1 ---- 180 --- 5.48%
May-07 -- 133 ------ 19 ------ 7 ------ 4 ---- 163 --- 4.96%
Jun-07 -- 174 ------ 64 ----- 16 ------ 1 ---- 255 --- 7.76%
Jul-07 -- 155 ------ 81 ----- 19 ------ 2 ---- 257 --- 7.83%
Aug-07 -- 250 ----- 222 ----- 39 ----- 10 ---- 521 -- 15.86%
Sep-07 --- 35 ----- 352 ----- 58 ----- 28 ---- 473 -- 14.40%
Oct-07 ---- 0 ----- 398 ----- 12 ----- 42 ---- 452 -- 13.76%
Nov-07 ---- 0 ----- 433 ------ 5 ----- 54 ---- 492 -- 14.98%
Dec-07 ---- 0 ----- 302 ------ 6 ----- 55 ---- 363 -- 11.05%
Total --- 991 --- 1,916 ---- 179 ---- 198 -- 3,284 - 100.00%


Spec: I just copied your table format, since it looks good! Hope you don't mind.

I am working on getting expected PWMB i485 for EB2(I&C) for each month of CY 2007 based on above table for CHINA and Specs table for INDIA.

Q, Spec, Teddy and others.... below is my update on PWMB i485 numbers

Looking at PERM Certifications and i485 pending for JAN-JULY 2007 for INDIA and CHINA

INDIA:
JAN-JULY PERM = 8.9k
JAN-JULY i485 = 9.9k(EB2)+4.6k(EB3) = 14.5k

Based on above PERM&i485 data, split between EB2 & EB3 is 68%(EB2) and 32%(EB3)

CHINA:
JAN-JULY PERM = 2.6k
JAN-JULY i485 = 5.5k(EB2)+0.6k(EB3) = 6.1k

Based on above PERM&i485 data, split between EB2 & EB3 is 90%(EB2) and 10%(EB3)

I am using the same % from above and 15% denial/rejections at i140 stage to derive expected EB2(I&C)i-485 for each month of CY 2007 in the table below(based on EB(I&C) PWMB PERM data).


- PD ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ---- EB2(I+C) -- Cumulative--
Jan-07 ---- 99 ------ 45 ------ 145 -------- 145
Feb-07 --- 198 ------ 66 ------ 264 -------- 409
Mar-07 --- 347 ----- 104 ------ 451 -------- 860
Apr-07 --- 814 ----- 303 -----1,117 ------ 1,977
May-07 --1,052 ----- 274 -----1,326 ------ 3,303
Jun-07 --1,260 ----- 429 -----1,689 ------ 4,992
Jul-07 --1,989 ----- 433 -----2,421 ------ 7,413
Aug-07 --2,269 ----- 877 -----3,145 ----- 10,559
Sep-07 --2,372 ----- 796 -----3,168 ----- 13,726
Oct-07 --2,758 ----- 761 -----3,519 ----- 17,245
Nov-07 --2,464 ----- 828 -----3,292 ----- 20,538
Dec-07 --2,375 ----- 611 -----2,986 ----- 23,524
Total ---17,997 --- 5,527 ---23,524


These numbers represent only those PERM approvals after July 2007 with 2007PD. We have to add those who got their PERM certified before AUG 2007
and did not file i485, spouse yet to file i485 and porting numbers. The first two numbers may not be very significant though!

So the bottom line is USCIS will not see PWMB impact until dates move to 01MAY2007 or 01JUN2007 for both IND and CHINA. Unless porting cases are really high, as
some people(including DOS/USCIS) predicting, dates should move in the final quarter as predicted before!

[veni001]

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Teddy looks like you are mistaken looking at just PD 2007 PERM certifications in 2008 & 2009, Below is EB (I&C) PERM certification with PD 2008 & PD 2009
India PD2008 = 8.0k+10.0k+3.7k~=21.7k -------------------India PD2009 = 8+15.0k+92~=15.1k
China PD2008 = 1.4k+1.9k+0.7K~=4.0k ----------------------China PD2009 = 2+2.2k+9=2.2k


Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

Teddy,
It is about 7-8k, see the table i have posted.

[qesehmk]

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

Teddy .. the worst case scenario is 24K gross SOFAD. With porting it becomes about 20K net sofad which probably takes us through Sep or Oct 2006 (based on 1oct2010 inventory). But of course the probability is quite low. Most likely scenario is 37K gross sofad and 30K net which means may be Feb or Mar 2007.

[veni001]

Spec & Veni thanks for your analysis on PWMB. Looking at your table can we conclude that the PWMB figure till 01-Aug -2007 is in the 5-6K range. For my approximations I had done the computation based on the fact that it was taking 1-4 months for perm approval so the number of PWMB's before April will be very few. Your analysis on the PWMB's also indicates that there is virtually no traffic in 2009 and 2010 this could be great news once the date actually crosses 2008.

Q I agree with you that there is a huge difference between Apr 2007 and Jul 2007 I certainly agree that Apr 2007 is quite possible but to make it Jul 2007 still requires a big push. At the header of the thread I believe you can consider revising the worst case scenario from Sep 2006 I think that will be breached for sure, maybe Nov 2006 is still quite conservative.

Teddy,
The outlook is not that encouraging.
Assuming that USCIS may be able to clear up-to MAR2007 in FY2011 for EB2I&C we are still going to have about 9k( pending inventory)+21k PWMB (for CY 2007) = 30k i-485 between EB2I&C in CY 2007.

CY2008
EB2(I+C) PERM = 21.7k+4.0k = 25.7k (assume 5.7 towards porting and rejections, 80%-EB2)= 16k~= 35k - i485
CY2009
EB2(I+C) PERM = 15.1K+2.2k =17.3k (assume 5.3 towards porting and rejections, 80%-EB2)= 9.6k~= 21k - i485

We are looking at additional(9k+21k+35k+21k) 86k+ Porting to clear through CY 2009.

Assuming EB2(I+C) will get about 25k on average for few more years years,I would stick to our rule of five for EB2

[vishnu]

Veni - the 76+ porting you are referring to includes the current inventory right (whatever is already in the demand data)?

[veni001]

Veni - the 86+ porting you are referring to includes the current inventory right (whatever is already in the demand data)?

Vishnu,
I for got to include it, so it will be 86k+ porting numbers for the next couple of years

[Spectator]

It looks like DOL have been putting a big effort into adjudicating PERM cases undergoing Audit.

http://icert.doleta.gov/

The date has moved from March 2009 in March to December 2009 in April.

People have been complaining normal PERM approvals times have increased - possibly this movement for Audit cases explains why.

It also matches Trackitt data when I last looked - there did appear to be more than usual audit cases and not all of them were 2 years old.

[vishnu]

guys - what was the spillover last year and how much went to India and China EB2? tks

[anuran]

Spillover for FY10,
India ~16900
China ~3500
from ~20000 spillover to EB2.

[veni001]

It looks like DOL have been putting a big effort into adjudicating PERM cases undergoing Audit.

http://icert.doleta.gov/

The date has moved from March 2009 in March to December 2009 in April.

People have been complaining normal PERM approvals times have increased - possibly this movement for Audit cases explains why.

It also matches Trackitt data when I last looked - there did appear to be more than usual audit cases and not all of them were 2 years old.

Spec,
Other reason could be, DOL may not have very many pending(Audit) cases from 2009! As we can see from PERM disclosure data 2009 saw the bottom for both PERM filings and certification.

[gcwait2007]

GCW

What it boils down to is - Spec's calculations show that PWMB might be 33% as opposed to 7% I had assumed. . The difference comes from teh fact that the 7% only relates to people who already had perm approved. The rest 26% were approved post Jul 2007.

So between Jan-Jul 2007 instead of 1.5K per month on average, the number is really 2K. So as the dates move ahead these extra 500 per month people will start filing.

For those not concerned with details ... essentially this is going to add 3.5K in PWMB (or about 2 months impact to our calculations). Header updated accordingly.

Q,

Thanks for converting the gathered knowledge into wisdom.

Thanks,
gcw07

[veni001]

Q, Spec and other gurus...
What % of PERM approvals make it to i140 stage? Also what is the average time lag between PERM approval and i140 submittal?