EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

[dec2007]

Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

[vizcard]

Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

I believe its, FIFO within a particular month. It's just a matter of days though. It's not like they are going to run out of GCs this early

[leo07]

I Agree. but get your app out asap though.

[leo07]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[Feb262009]

Most Gurus have got their PD current and I guess they are busy doing their paper work. Time for next round of gurus to pop up and take over the tasks. )

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[bieber]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

I will blame Nishanth

[nishant2200]

Yes, mine got reached on Dec 1st, and today check for wife cashed.

I personally feel one should try to get file reach asap, but not at the cost of accuracy or pissing off the lawyers or HR. I don't necessarily think the received date will play a huge major part in terms of any FIFO, its simple common sense though, that the sooner your file gets into someone's hands, the sooner it will be done with.

And for PD difference between Nov-Dec and Feb-March, the gap is too wide. I am pretty sure, at some point, there will be retrogression and controlled movement forward of dates, that shall take care of appropriate allocation of visas in order of PD.

Nishanth

Did you file on Dec 1st? My application is still being worked by HR, might take few more days. How does USCIS issues GC, based on FIFO or PD?
If I file on Dec 15th and a person with Feb 2008 PD files before me, lets say Dec 1st itself, is there a chance he gets GC before me?

Please clairfy

Thanks, and good luck

[leo07]

Good....What's the prediction for Jan VB?

[nishant2200]

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

Ok, here it is then, what currently feel, it's also put on first page by me.

By Jan or Feb VB, dates will be moved to end of June 2008, to accomodate the NVC notices. The natural processing time taken for 485 will help in taking care that demand data does not accumulate for EB2IC in next 1 month to 2 months.

After this, when DD starts creeping up, based on that amount as well as demand of EB1 and EB2 ROW quarterly, (if CO feels he cannot keep on pace with the increasing demand data with the QSP allocation), dates will stall or retrogress. Only way retrogression may not occur is if the staggered movement by CO (in batches of around 3.5 months) which he is doing, does not accumulate too much demand data since QSP takes care of the "current" demand generated for EB2IC on a consistent basis, otherwise if the demand data for EB2IC starts accumulating to a point of around 5k or more, then retrogression will occur to adjust for the QSP that is really available vs what is really needed.

I will blame Nishanth

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends my projection is also on Page -1. All the very best to everyone.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)

[Tomtuat]

2011 October: 3.0 months
2011 November: 3.5 months
2011 December: 4.5 months
2012 January: ??

Let's keep our fingers crossed......

[cbpds1]

remember last time CO leaked the PD to the attorneys, do the attorneys meet CO every month?

2011 October: 3.0 months
2011 November: 3.5 months
2011 December: 4.5 months
2012 January: ??

Let's keep our fingers crossed......

[Tomtuat]

remember last time CO leaked the PD to the attorneys, do the attorneys meet CO every month?

CO mentioned about similar movements in January and February in the October meeting.... I think the date will move to June 15 2008/June 22 2008/July 01 2008 in this bulletin.

[suninphx]

Friends my projection is also on Page -1. All the very best to everyone.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)

Any movement crossing 1 Jun 2008 in next 2 bulletins will make us revisit our assumptions.

[maggie]

Folks,
If it is in wrong thread then please move it to an appropriate thread.

My wife & I applied for I485
Details:
PD = 12/23/2007
Center = Texas (TSC)
Applied on = 11/30/2011
Check deducted = 12/06/2011

Few funny things:
Never been happier to see money going away from our accounts.
We put an alert on check debit of >200 so I get an email alert and it did not work because they electronically deposited (ACH debit)

Good luck to all of you.

Note: Special thanks to Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Nishant and all other Gurus, which have become part of our daily life.

[imdeng]

I can think of three reasons. One - I think we are all quite spent with all the HR-3012 activity. Two - expectations from this VB is low. Three - many of our high volume posters are done with the process with the recent movement in PD and their attention has shifted to post-485 activities rather than DD and VB.

It's already 7th. Why aren't people talking about vb and predictions and where's all the hungama?

[vizcard]

I can think of three reasons. One - I think we are all quite spent with all the HR-3012 activity. Two - expectations from this VB is low. Three - many of our high volume posters are done with the process with the recent movement in PD and their attention has shifted to post-485 activities rather than DD and VB.

I think (1) and (2) are related. If it wasn't for HR3012 stalling, the optimism in the Jan VB would be higher. The actual movement might be the same regardless of HR3012 but emotionally people are disappointed. I for one believe that HR3012 would have had no impact on the Jan VB at all regardless of current status.

(3) is very true and understandably so. I think, that will change slightly when this application period is over... but in any case, its time for the next wave to step up.

[venkimakthal]

I think (1) and (2) are related. If it wasn't for HR3012 stalling, the optimism in the Jan VB would be higher. The actual movement might be the same regardless of HR3012 but emotionally people are disappointed. I for one believe that HR3012 would have had no impact on the Jan VB at all regardless of current status.

(3) is very true and understandably so. I think, that will change slightly when this application period is over... but in any case, its time for the next wave to step up.

That's correct, CO did not think that 3012 will be passed in house before Jan & Feb VB when commented on Oct regarding movement in Dec, Jan and Feb. Lets hope for the best

[gchopeful123]

I don't think HR.3012 will influence CO in any way. It is still a bill and not a law. It has to get thru Senate first and the last I heard it was put on hold. Personally, I really feel HR.3012 shd be passed asap, but until then lets hope that CO continues to progress dates...

That's correct, CO did not think that 3012 will be passed in house before Jan & Feb VB when commented on Oct regarding movement in Dec, Jan and Feb. Lets hope for the best

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

On the other hand, that is a problem introduced only because the Bill seeks to be retroactive to the beginning of FY2012. Had the implementation date been from FY2013, it would not exist at all and is something those that drafted it should have been aware of.

It is not CO's job to guess whether legislation will be introduced or pass. His job is to follow the law in existence. If the law changes, he must follow that new law from that point.

That said, if he follows the same model he did when encouraging new demand for F2A, he is likely to have sufficient demand anyway. As little as 01-July-08 might be sufficient, which is not out of the question even in the next 1-2 months. He still has time to generate additional approvable demand before the end of the year even up to around the April 2012 VB.

If he doesn't, then that is just how it is. The numbers lost would be minimal.

[vizcard]

In my honest opinion, as long as HR 3012 is not completely failed, there will be some impact on the dates. Or at least there should be.

Anything can happen quickly. HR 3012 can move in the Senate line blitz and simply become law suddenly. If that happens, where is the demand to fill EB2-IC pipe for FY 2012? It will be a gross injustice to waste thousands of numbers just because the CO was ridiculously slow in moving the dates.

Even if HR 3012 won't become law, CO can always retrogress later. In the absolute worst case, FY 2013 will take care of these green cards.

The danger of not building *sufficient* demand for EB2-IC is more. The probability of HR 3012 passing changes what is *sufficient*. By late January, we will know its prospects. So we should see movement in January/February and further than anticipated.

P.S. I might have to eat crow later because we have been disappointed by the lack of logic and idiocies of the DOS before. They might do an about face and start stalling/retrogressing from January bulletin itself. Sorry if I am giving false hopes to anyone.

the underlying premise is right.. but I think even with HR3012, EB2IC doesnt get more than 35K visas for 2011. So at most he "needs to" move it to Sept or Oct 2008 to accomodate HR3012 and he "needs to" do this by April 2012 to account for the processing time. So he has 3 more bulletins (after Jan) to wait for the verdict on HR3012.

[venkimakthal]

Generally what time in a day demand data will be out?

[vizcard]

Here's how I see it going down -
By Feb bulletin - July 1, 2008
March - no movement
April - Moves to Oct 2008 (if HR3012 goes through) OR Retrogresses to July 2007.

If retrogression happens, it will stay the same till the summer SO season.

[venkat]

My PD is June 24, 2008. Anytime someone says dates will reach 'July 1st' its like honey for my ears...Its a great feeling.
But as others said the general mood is pretty dull with very little buzz when compared to previous VB's. I hope CO moves the dates by*at least 2 months to keep the interest levels going. As we know this whole expectation was created by him back in October when he met the immigration lawyers, he now has to just keep up with his promise.

[wantgcnow]

CO didn't give any prediction in the Dec Bulletin ....So I hope he keeps up his old promise :-)